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Ethereum 1D #ETH corrected similarly to #BTC after ETF approvals. It absorbed all the liquidity from the 2024 consolidation and is now attempting a climb. We might see a price increase to liquidate shorts, but a retest of the 2288 zone is also possible. In the event of a new low, DCA zones are crucial, and it's essential for the price not to open a daily candle below 1800. For sell zones, we first need to see support at the 3200-3300 range; only then can we discuss a new ATH.
Long
by TraderX10101
Does the Market Rally When the Fed Begins to Cut Rates?The relationship between rate cuts and the stock market, as illustrated in the provided graph, shows that major market declines often occur after the Federal Reserve pivots to lower interest rates. This pattern is evident in historical instances where the Fed's rate cuts were followed by significant drops in the S&P 500. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, which are crucial for investors to understand. Economic Weakness: Rate cuts typically respond to economic slowdown or anticipated recession. Each instance of the Fed pivoting to lower rates (1969, 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007, 2019) corresponds to significant market declines soon after. Rate cuts signal concerns about economic health, causing investors to lose confidence, as reflected in the graph. Delayed Impact: Rate cuts do not immediately stimulate the economy; it takes time for their effects to propagate. The graph shows that the majority of the market decline occurs after the Fed's pivot, indicating that initial rate cuts were insufficient to halt the downturn. During this lag period, the market may continue to decline as economic data reflects ongoing weakness. Investor Sentiment: Rate cuts can trigger fear among investors, who interpret the move as an indication of severe economic issues. The graph shows substantial percentage drops in the S&P 500 following each pivot, demonstrating how negative sentiment can exacerbate declines. The fear of a worsening economy leads to a sell-off in stocks, contributing to further market drops. Credit Conditions: During economic stress, banks may tighten lending standards, reducing the effectiveness of rate cuts. Post-rate cut periods in the graph align with times of economic stress, where credit conditions likely tightened. Businesses and consumers may not be able to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, limiting economic recovery and impacting the market negatively. Historical examples such as the crises in 2000 and 2007 highlight substantial market drops after rate cuts, as seen in the graph. In both cases, the rate cuts responded to bursting bubbles (tech bubble in 2000, housing bubble in 2007), and the economic fallout was too severe for rate cuts to provide immediate relief. The graph underscores that while rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy, they often follow significant economic downturns. Investors should be cautious, recognizing that initial market reactions to rate cuts can be negative due to perceived economic weakness, delayed policy impact, and deteriorating sentiment.
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
5
Evolution of JPY:How BOJ Policies & Global Events Influence YENUSD/JPY Dynamics: A Historical and Policy-Driven Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Impact Historical Context and Market Reactions The COVID-19 pandemic led to some of the most extreme market reactions in recent history. During this period, global bond yields spiked in a highly risk-off environment, defying expectations that they would fall as investors sought safe havens. This prompted the Federal Reserve to implement unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE), including daily purchases of $300 billion in bonds. The market chaos highlighted the extent of leverage in supposedly liquid trades. Post-COVID , zero interest rates spurred significant equity market gains until inflation concerns and subsequent rate hikes caused a market correction. It was expected that higher borrowing rates would reduce excessive leverage, but the heavily crowded yen carry trade suggested otherwise. Yen borrowing was extensive and leveraged, flowing into the Japanese market due to minimal currency risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) System The Bank of Japan (BOJ), established in 1882, serves as the central bank of Japan. Its primary roles include issuing currency, implementing monetary policy, and maintaining financial stability. The BOJ’s policies and actions significantly impact the yen’s value and the broader Japanese economy. Key Functions of the BOJ: 1. Monetary Policy: The BOJ's primary tool for influencing the economy is its monetary policy. This includes setting interest rates and engaging in open market operations to control the money supply. The BOJ's main policy goals are to achieve price stability and economic growth. 2. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE): Introduced in 2013 under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, QQE aimed to combat deflation and stimulate the economy by purchasing government bonds and other assets, thus increasing the monetary base. 3. Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP): Implemented in 2016, the BOJ introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the bank. This policy aimed to encourage lending and investment by making it costly for banks to hold excess reserves. 4. Yield Curve Control (YCC): In 2016, the BOJ introduced YCC, targeting a zero percent yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to control the shape of the yield curve and maintain low-interest rates across different maturities. Recent Economic Developments Japanese Yen Strength: - Recently, the yen extended its rally to above 146.50 against the US dollar, its strongest level since March. This was driven by diverging monetary policies between the US Federal Reserve and the BOJ. - Weak US jobs data have increased expectations for further Fed rate cuts, contributing to a weaker dollar. BOJ Rate Hike: - The BOJ raised its interest rate to a 16-year high of 0.25% and signaled the possibility of future increases if economic conditions warrant. This move surprised many economists. Government Intervention: - In July, Japanese authorities spent 5.53 trillion yen to support the currency through intervention. The government expressed concerns that a weaker yen could erode household purchasing power by pushing inflation higher than wage growth. Impact on Financial Markets Japanese Market: - The yen’s strength and BOJ’s policy adjustments have significantly influenced Japanese financial markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by about 6%, closing the week at 35,909.70. This was one of the worst performances since March 2020 when the index fell below 36,000. Bond yields also dropped, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1%, its lowest level in two months. Global Markets: - Global financial markets, including US markets, have been affected by recession fears and weak economic indicators. The Nasdaq Composite has slid into correction territory, reflecting broader market concerns. Conclusion The interplay between BOJ policies and global economic conditions continues to shape the USD/JPY dynamics. The BOJ’s commitment to maintaining low interest rates and engaging in extensive bond purchases influences the yen's value and the broader Japanese economy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and traders navigating the complex landscape of forex markets. USD/JPY Historical Movements and Influential Events on JPY Historical Movements of the JPY The Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by various historical and economic events. Here are some notable periods and their impacts: 1. Introduction and Early Years (1871 - 1882): - The yen was introduced in 1871 as a modern currency, replacing the diverse local currencies issued by feudal regions. - In 1882, the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centralized control over the currency, standardizing and stabilizing the yen. 2. Post-WWII Era (1945 - 1971): - After WWII, the yen was pegged to the US dollar at 360 yen per USD under the Bretton Woods system. This fixed rate helped stabilize the Japanese economy during its post-war recovery. - The peg was abandoned in 1971, and the yen became a free-floating currency. This shift led to significant volatility, with the yen reaching a high of 271 per USD in 1973. 3. 1980s Economic Boom and 1990s Asset Bubble Collapse: - During the 1980s, Japan's economy boomed, and the yen appreciated significantly. - The collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation, with the BOJ adopting low interest rates to stimulate growth. 4. 2008 Financial Crisis: - The global financial crisis in 2008 saw the yen strengthen as investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened multiple times to prevent excessive appreciation. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - The pandemic caused economic disruptions globally, leading to significant yen volatility. Safe-haven inflows drove the yen's value up, while the BOJ's QE programs aimed to mitigate economic downturns. Key Events Influencing Strong Movements in JPY 1. 1985 Plaza Accord: - An agreement between the G5 nations to depreciate the US dollar relative to the yen and other currencies. This led to a rapid appreciation of the yen, causing significant adjustments in Japan’s economy. 2. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: - The crisis led to a flight to safety, with the yen initially strengthening before the BOJ intervened to stabilize the currency. 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis: - The yen appreciated as global investors sought safe-haven assets. The BOJ intervened to prevent excessive yen strength, which could hurt Japan's export-driven economy. 4. 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami: - The natural disaster led to a sharp appreciation of the yen, prompting the BOJ and the Japanese government to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency. 5. COVID-19 Pandemic: - Safe-haven demand for the yen increased during the pandemic, but BOJ’s monetary policies, including extensive bond-buying and low interest rates, aimed to support the economy and stabilize the currency. Conclusion The Japanese yen has a rich history of significant fluctuations driven by both domestic policies and global events. The BOJ’s role in stabilizing the yen through various monetary policy tools has been crucial, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Understanding these historical movements and influential events is key for anyone looking to grasp the dynamics of the JPY in the forex market.
Education
by SroshMayi
My bearish price targets for $NVDA are reached, now what?My bearish price targets for NASDAQ:NVDA #NVIDIA are reached: 97.39 > 96.76 > 92.21. We pulled back -35% from the top. This could be a healthy pullback. Next is to find out if we can hold this support area: - If we hold support, we can go for new all time highs. If you think so, support levels can be a good entry point for a LONG position. - If we don't hold support, the next support level is sitting around ~$50. Also, if we look at the fundamentals (//penketrading.com/symbols/NVDA.NASDAQ/) the company is growing fast, but even with this growth and my 10 year intrinsic value calculation the value is between $12.48 - $38.27 per share. Just my analysis, not financial advice. What do you think? Best regards, Penke
NASDAQ:NVDA
by PenkeTrading
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances. MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand. MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization. MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away. MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year). The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well. Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites. MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings. Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
2
Ubisoft Entertainment SA / UBIUbisoft Entertainment aka ubi "bug" is a french video game publisher headquartered in Saint-Mandé with development studios across the world. Its video game franchises include Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, For Honor, Just Dance, Prince of Persia, Rabbids, Rayman, Tom Clancy's, and Watch Dogs. Ubisoft was one early investors in web3 technologies and projects too last year was a terrible year for ubi because not only they didn't succeed with their franchise like farcry 6 but also they entered the bear market while they were working on their bigger projects like AC. “We are clearly disappointed by our recent performance,” said Ubisoft Chief Executive Yves Guillemot. “We are facing contrasted market dynamics as the industry continues to shift towards mega-brands and everlasting live games, in the context of worsening economic conditions affecting consumer spending.” 2023 is a big year for ubi and they are going to publish some of their best games like Assassin's Creed Mirage, Tom Clancy’s The Division Heartland and skull and bones ubi stock now in Accumulation phase and its next targets are 21, 23 and 25
LSIN:0NVLLong
by moonypto
1
Ranger Energy on the pullback. This is why I'm doubling down. Ranger Energy Services, Inc. NYSE:RNGR is on an 11% pullback to the $12 support following spectacular Q2 results , with a surprise in their EPS of 47%. This is one of my highest conviction plays in 2024 for the reasons that I explain below. In June, this stock surfaced to my attention due to significant insider buying activity. Essentially, the CEO, Bodden Stuart, and the CFO, Cougle Melissa, bought a total of $150,000 in shares in Ranger Energy. This is a significant value to me, given that the share price declined by 37% since October last year. My investment style favors contrarian insiders buying activity, after a significant selloff in the share price of their company. However, I consider many other things that I cover below. In Q1 2024, they had very bad results . Their EPS was down by 140% compared to what the analysts estimated. Most shareholders, especially with micro-cap companies, barely go into the details behind such a decline. They simply have a look at the EPS and Revenue results, and move on. In my case, I analyze every single detail from their quarterly reports, and earnings call transcripts. I reached the conclusion that the selloff since October was unjustified. My first argument is the unprecedentedly bad winter, which directly affected their Q1 results. As a brief side note to readers new to this company, Ranger Energy provides well completion and production services to E&P companies operating on the largest basins in the US. The very first thing that E&P companies do during bad weather is pause the work of their subcontractors, which in the case of Ranger Energy means zero revenue. An additional argument that I have for the selloff was a safety related event that resulted in 75 rig-days with zero revenue. Just let that sink in; 75 days with absolute 0 income, but having to cover the business' operating expenses, like salaries and equipment leases. During the earnings call, management discussed the decision to pivot towards services that provide a higher margin. I really favor this decision, given that I prefer companies who focus on margins, rather than volumes. Why, you might ask? Well, in the event of a recession, guess which one is going to survive? Exactly, none of them, but I will be making money anyways by shorting the one that focuses on higher volume, low margin services. Coming back to Ranger Energy, I highly value their decision to focus on pump-down services, rather than production, given the high number of new competitors bidding for production contracts at rates that are simply not profitable. In regards to their price action, I am very confident in the $8.5 and $9.2 support levels, given the high number of times that the share price bounced there. Additionally, in their Q2 earnings release, they reported an EPS that was 47% above analysts' estimate. The share price easily broke the $12 resistance level. Now, with the recent pullback following unfavorable results from the US jobs report, the share price is back on the $12 price mark. I highly believe the share price will touch the $15 resistance before the end of the year, given the strategic initiative to focus on high-margin services, and the lack of one-off events, like safety incidents or harsh winter conditions. I am planning to buy more shares and call options expiring on December this year. As a side note, the rocket symbol on the price chart represents my entry point this year.
NYSE:RNGRLong
by Deep_F_Value
1
Is The US Stock Market Overvalued? Ask Buffet Indicator.The Buffett Indicator, named after renowned investor Warren Buffett, is a popular metric used to assess the valuation of the US stock market by comparing it to the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This ratio provides a clear picture of how the market's value stacks up against the economy's overall output. Understanding the Buffett Indicator - Buffett Indicator measures the ratio of total US stock market value to GDP. - Current value: 197% as of May 31, 2024. - Historical trend suggests a typical value closer to 100%. - 1.9 standard deviations above the trend line indicates significant overvaluation. Market Growth vs. Economic Growth - High Buffett Indicator value suggests a potential market bubble. - Disparity between market growth and economic output. - Historically, high ratios have led to market corrections. - Overvalued markets increase the risk of significant retracements. Impact of Interest Rates - Low interest rates drive investors towards equities, inflating stock prices. - Bonds offer lower returns, pushing capital into the stock market. - Rising interest rates could shift money back to bonds, pressuring stock prices. - The indicator's high value underscores the risk of a correction if interest rates increase. International Sales and Overvaluation - The indicator does not account for international sales of US companies. - Global revenues can distort the picture of domestic economic health. - High Buffett Indicator may reflect these global sales, adding to overvaluation. - Investors should consider conservative strategies until valuations return to historical norms.
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
2
FMC Corp | FMC | Long at $58.00NYSE:FMC Corp is currently trading at a P/E ratio 6x and has a 3.98% dividend. It had a very rough year in 2023, but the company estimates improved earnings and growth after 2024. From a technical analysis perspective, it appears to be in an accumulation phase after seeing a low around $50 and wavering between that value and $68 for 11 months. Unless fundamentals change post earnings, it is currently in a personal buy zone at $58.00. Target #1 - $81.00 Target #2 - $85.00 Target #3 - $90.00 Target #4 - $122.00 (very long-term...)
NYSE:FMCLong
by WorthlessViews
Are 3D Printing Stocks About To Make an Epic Comeback?Ladies and gentlemen, traders of all ages, today I am sharing an idea about 3D printing stocks trading at remarkably low levels considering the following points: 1. They've been through several "hype cycles" already. 2. They've been improving the tech for 10+ years now. 3. But most importantly, generative AI is about to unlock ridiculously powerful capabilities that speed up design and printing times for all services. The key factor is that AI might just be the match that takes 3D printing to true mass adoption. This is what everyone who has ever followed 3D printing has been waiting for. It's the only way these companies can truly grow to their next stage. Here are some cool facts to consider that are all data points created BEFORE the usage of AI to spark new ideas, support design, create mockups, and even create underlying code for specific printable items – thus imagine how these facts change once updated to the emergence of AI: Rapid Adoption Across Industries: The global 3D printing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2021 to 2028, driven by increasing demand from industries such as healthcare, aerospace, and automotive. Automotive Advancements: Companies like Ford and BMW started using 3D printing for prototyping and manufacturing complex parts, significantly reducing production time and costs. Aerospace Applications: Aerospace companies started leveraging 3D printing to create lightweight, durable components for aircraft and spacecraft, enabling them to test concepts faster and on site. The two companies I have on this idea and chart are NASDAQ:SSYS Stratasys (SSYS) and NYSE:PRLB – while I like Desktop Metal, the simple fact is that SSYS and PRLB seem to have better balance sheets and income statements. Their financial health is far more robust with less debt, also. In the coming weeks, I am going to publish more research about why I sense a return to this industry. Stay tuned! Please always remember I publish for my own education and entertainment. None of this is advice! Do your own research. Check out all of the ideas on my TradingView profile for me and be sure to press that boost button if you liked this idea.
NASDAQ:SSYS
by scheplick
1
BITCOIN'S Next Target $69,623 BREAKING NEW: TRADERS, who's ready for the second move? It's been confirmed with price action BITCOIN will continue as I've searched for trend continuation. Smart money contraction with value line: this means the trend gets pushed down by smart money then the trend must rise. I've laid a Bear Trap in case there's one. The red Smart Money trendline is a smart money plot that I've retraced. It's used for guidance which shows more or less the direction of the WHALES Used Money Flow Index for guidance Here are the next-level prices. I've considered all candlesticks that show the facts and wicks that explain the story of Bitcoin's next movements. I've looked up plenty of price action and candlestick patterns Next BULL RUN DATE to be released soon Hint: It's before July ends. Since $56k, I warned you there was a buy signal while I was on the other side of the BULL-GATE standing against the HERD, who were declaring BITCOIN CRASHES. EXPECTED ATH TARGET $85k, I've said this in the past for many weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
186
Render Token / RNDRThe price of RNDR is $1.83 today with a 24hour trading volume of 180 million dollars. This represents a 4% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 333% price increase in the past 30 days! Render token is a distributed GPU rendering network built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, aiming to connect artists and studios in need of GPU compute power with mining partners willing to rent their GPU capabilities out. Backed by parent company OTOY, the RNDR team is based out of Los Angeles, with team members throughout the world. The RNDR advisory board boasts industry leaders such as Ari Emanuel (Co-Founder and Co-CEO, WME), JJ Abrams (Chairman and CEO, Bad Robot Productions) and Brendan Eich (Founder and CEO, Brave Software and BAT) bulls broke 0.8, 1.2 and 1.6 resistance and ready to claim 2$. I got into rndr wen it has 220 million market-cap and here we are at half a billion dollar mc. as you see market is in correction phase which is normal and healthy so don't panic if you see couple of red candles after 300% pump
RLong
by moonypto
37