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Air Canada Analysis 10/18/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/18/24 I have no open positions in Air Canada TSX: AC Air Canada is a Canadian airline who took a big hit during COVID and added a lot of debt to their business. Because of the unstable financial position the valuation is very low and could provide large returns in the event of a turnaround. The Debt Looking at the debt ratios the debt/equity looks very high, but the debt/asset ratio looks much better. Of course as all airlines do they use debt to buy their planes and other assets. However it is worth noting that the debt here is a problem. (Higher than competitors) For a long term buy and hold I would like to see much more cash on the balance sheet, but this is a turnaround play after all. If Air Canada's margins decrease to unprofitable they may be forced to sell assets to cover liabilities. Qualitative Looking at the qualitative metrics it is obvious that Air Canada took large losses in 2020 but has since recovered in terms of earnings, revenue, and margins. The stock price however has not recovered, this is likely due to the debt load they are stuck with now. From a long term perspective airlines are notoriously bad businesses struggling with debt, unprofitability, and an extremely competitive environment. This is why I only intend to hold this stock for a maximum of 3-5 years. Valuations The valuations are where things start to look up for this company. With a price/cash flow of 1.75 you would be getting your investment back in about 1 year 9 months. On the other hand if they lose money and are forced to sell assets the stock will likely remain flat or decline further. The way I view Air Canada is as an asymmetric bet. For example, I assigned some arbitrary values to my model where I see a 25% chance that they sell off assets. a 50% chance that earnings and margins remain stable and a 25% chance that earnings and margins increase In the worst case scenario the stock will likely fall another 25%-50% and in the best case scenario AC could be a 4x from current valuations. Of course the risk/reward I am assigning to these values is subjective and I highly suggest doing your own research to see how you feel about these outcomes. For me at current prices Air Canada TSX: AC is a buy. So long as you keep in mind the potential risks and dont be shocked if the 25% chance of the downside materializes. If you enjoyed this report I publish 2 times per week and offer consulting, portfolio analysis, and contract research. PM me if interested.
TSX:ACLong
by sihen999
2
IFN Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16 I have no open positions in NYSE: IFN I am not a licensed investment advisor and I am not a tax advisor, nothing in this article is to be taken as financial advice. India Fund, Inc. (The) India Fund, Inc. (The) is a non-diversified closed end fund focused on the Indian market. The fund is currently trading at a discount of 7.5% to the net asset value with a 9% dividend yield. The fund holds a basket of Indian equities, primary large cap companies with stable track records. With the fund launched in 2003 it has since under performed the Nifty 50 index which has had a historic run in recent years. So why would an investor consider IFN? First of all IFN is trading at a discount to NAV meaning you are essentially buying the basket of stocks at a discount. It is also my personal belief that the equities held in IFN are better but valuation and fundamentally from the holdings in the Nifty 50 index. Macro: India is one of the fastest growing countries in the world in terms of both population and economically. However with several major drawbacks including the massive trade deficit, lack of efficiency in government operations, and less developed architecture to some of the competitor emerging markets. That being said India is a country of smart, hard working people, and I believe their economic environment will continue to improve. Tax Considerations: IFN is a closed end fund, meaning that it may have special tax considerations for some investors. From the perspective of a USA based investor I choose to hold all closed end funds in a Roth IRA retirement account. Please consult with a tax advisor before making any decisions.
NYSE:IFNLong
by sihen999
Kumba Iron Ore Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open positions in Kumba Iron Ore JSE: KIO Introduction: Kumba Iron Ore is a South African Iron Ore mining company. They operate 3 mines in South Africa, all of which are quality assets operating profitably at current Iron Ore prices. The second business segment is logistics, or the transport of minerals across South Africa and internationally. Fundamentals: Looking at the 3 mines and their average costs the company is profitable at any Iron Ore prices about $40/metric ton. Well below the current prices. The return on the company's assets is very high and debt is negligible. The mine's have a long runway of 20+ years before they are at risk of running dry. With a long runway, profitable mines, the company looks attractive on a fundamentals basis. Iron Ore spot price: Current Iron prices are around $100/metric ton. Iron being a commodity tied to the general economy could see a drop in an economic downturn. $50 Iron could be possible atleast in the short term with an upside of $200/metric ton in a good economic environment for Iron. tradingeconomics.com Valuations: Kumba Iron Ore is currently trading at a P/CF and a P/E of 3.67 and 5.69 respectively. By both metrics the company is very cheap relative to the fundamentals. With a dividend yield of 11% easily covered by the company's cash flows Kumba Iron Ore looks very attractive for a long term investor bullish on Iron Ore. If you enjoyed this report follow for more! PM for consulting, portfolio analysis, and research requests.
JSE:KIOLong
by sihen999
Comcast Corporation Analysis 10/15/24Disclosure: As of 10/15 I am long Comcast Corporation NYSE: NASDAQ:CMCSA Comcast is a media and telecom company. They have several business divisions including news, movies, and telecom services. Looking at their business they own several well known brands like MSNBC, Sky News, Xfinity, and Universal Studios. Fundamentals: Looking at the fundamentals of the business it is very stable with return on equity in the teens for multiple economic cycles. Alongside stable margins, paying back shareholders through buybacks and dividends and the responsible usage of debt it appears management is doing a good job running the business. This can be seen in the earnings and revenue growth over the years. Data going back to 2017 is remarkably stable in both revenue and earnings growth. Valuations: Looking at the valuations at a P/E of 10 and a dividend/buyback yield of 4% that gives me the minimum 15% return I am looking for in a long term hold. This does not account for future growth. Calculating for growth I would be happy to earn 18% annual on an investment at current prices. Of course this is just an estimate of the fair value for the company. But I would be still buying at any price below $50/share. Conclusion: As with most mature companies this investment should be thought of in a very long term compounding model for determining present value. Similar to in my NASDAQ:TROW analysis a holding period for mature companies should be as long as possible assuming the business is growing and doing well. This allows the earnings to compound and grow into perpetuity. If you found this article useful follow for my previous research and new research coming out regularly.
NASDAQ:CMCSALong
by sihen999
Value Investing at its FinestThanks to trading view, we do not have the capability to create groups specially for value investing. In the Indices group, I mentioned ALTM and lithium prices and its analysis of global demand and geo political factors. People laughed at my idea and the bears came hunting on the group. China has shut down a lithium plant leading to 8% decline in lithium production in the country which led to US lithium stocks soaring. Value investing at its finest - only at Foxx Invest. Feel free to DM me for value investing discussions. No charity. Trade an idea and analysis for an analysis and idea. Feel free to see my previous ideas and check out their performances. No 15000 lines on a chart trying to outguess the other guy in a crowd of millions. Simple, easy, detailed analysis leading to returns which you can see for yourself in all my ideas. Never doubt the Foxx
ALong
by FoxxInvest
6
Rotation - Growth Stocks > Value Stocks Growth Stocks: Growth stocks are shares in companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies in the market. These companies typically reinvest their earnings to accelerate growth in the short term rather than paying dividends. Value Stocks: Value stocks are shares in companies that appear to be undervalued by the market. These companies typically have stable earnings and often pay dividends. They are often found in more established industries like finance or utilities. In different economic conditions, one type may outperform the other, leading to rotations between growth and value in the market cycle. Analysis: The stock market is currently experiencing a unique situation where major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are setting new highs, but this growth is primarily driven by a small number of large tech companies (the "Magnificent 7"). This has led to a significant divergence between growth and value stocks, with growth stocks outperforming.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Flow-Trade
Dollar General | DG | Long at $90.00Dollar General NYSE:DG took a massive hit this morning after revising their future earnings guidance. The economy is showing many signs of a recession, and this is a clear warning. From a technical analysis perspective, it has retouched my "crash" simple moving average and may dip further into the $80's in the near-term. But, like many overall strong companies that suddenly plummet, I view this as a future opportunity given the strength of NYSE:DG as a business (holistically). Dollar General is the only grocery and home goods store around in many rural locations. So, while there is doom and gloom in the near-term, Dollar General is in a personal buy zone at $90.00. I view this as a starter position, though, with the potential for future declines/opportunities for additional share accumulation in the near-term. Target #1 = $100.00 Target #2 = $122.00 Target #3 = $200.00+ (very-long term outlook...)
NYSE:DGLong
by WorthlessViews
5
OPRA Analysis 8/20Disclosure: As of 8/20 I am long Opera Limited NYSE: OPRA Opera is a browser company available on Mac, PC, and Mobile. They earn revenue through advertisements, as well as a search partnership with Google. *This partnership with Google is a key risk for Opera as if the relationship falls apart they will lose a large portion of their revenue* As a customer of Opera I can say they have a quality product and is well reviewed by the people I know who use it. Most of their user growth is organic. And with only 8% of the market going to Opera there is large room for growth. Looking at the qualitative factors they have $0 debt, revenue has grown since their IPO in 2019 with a dip in 2021 that quickly recovered. Over this time period they have seen stable margins and a growing book value. The valuation of this company is the main reason I am looking at it. With the price/book being 1.25 and the book value increasing there is limited downside to this company. The earnings+dividend yield is 21% which is a rough estimate of what your investment could return off of the current earnings. Please note that this does not include growth, so potential returns could be higher or lower. Of course all investment decisions must be evaluated on their own merit of risk/reward and what factors you value. As always this is not financial advice, and read the annual reports and financial information prior to making any decisions. Have a great day everyone!
NASDAQ:OPRALong
by sihen999
$EL | Allocation | Market Exec | Technical Confluences: - Fibonacci retracement since the beginning of NYSE:EL 's history, puts the price action at the 78% retracement level - It coincides with a Demand Zone as can be seen across the price history - Stochastics are in Oversold conditions from Monthly, Weekly, Daily, H4 and even H1 - Will likely put Buy Stop levels at the Interest Zone areas to target a move to the 50% Fibo Retracement of this drastic bear move Fundamental Confluences: - Deep discount on a well-renowned brand - Earnings does not look too good at the moment but they do own some global brands names in beauty care - Growth can be weak now, but do you see people stop putting on cosmetics and ignore their appearances when they go out? If no, this share is definitely worth a try ________________________________ Putting in 2 portions of my NYSE:EL allocation now with more orders to be placed on in the future Long-Term value hold in my portfolio. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
NYSE:ELLong
by weekendanalyst
$INTC | Allocation | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: - Price action is close to the 78% Fibo Extension and is at a strong Demand Zone - Stochastics is in Oversold conditions from Daily, Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Confluences: - Currently, Intel is trading at tangible book value ( thevalue you will get if the company gets liquidated) - At such value, chances of a takeover might be there which means, potential premium to be paid on takeover news? - After weak Q2 earnings, does it mean anything if the CEO starts buying the stock himself? ________________________________ With deep discount in NASDAQ:INTC 's value, another no-brainer and minimal risk. Intel is not going to liquidate. Will be expecting a turnaround and definitely a Long-Term hold in my portfolio. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by weekendanalyst
#SRM_Contractors All time high breakoutTechnical Analysis - Resistance of Rs.240 is broken with huge volumes, potential to very high return in 1-2 years. Fundamental Analysis - Company is an Infrastructure player majorly works in Jammu & Kashmir region. Main clientele of this company is mainly Govt. companies like Border Road Organization, Indian Railway, National Highways Authority of India, etc. Recently won 3 orders of new projects combined worth 568.25 Cr. Making their orderbook of 1248.25 Cr (guesstimate it can be more)
NSE:SRMLong
by TINTIN2718
Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.
AMEX:AVUVLong
by Mere_Cat
1
SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust AnalysisDisclosure: As of 07/12/2024 I have no open position in SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust is a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that invests in commercial real estate across India. They invest in office, data center, and logistics properties. Their portfolio is diversified across 5 major cities in India. In order of exposure: Hyderabad, Bangalor, Chennai, Pune, and Mumbai. One risk to be aware of is the currency fluctuations of INR to SGD as well as the currency in you home country may affect returns. The company is highly profitable and looks to have manageable debt positions. Their debt is based in both SGD and INR. The largest tenant of CY6U is Tata Consultancy Services, making up a total of 12% of base rents. The next largest are Infosys and Amazon at 6% and 4% respectively. The company has a strong record of performance both in terms of profitability and return on investment. Debt levels appear to be manageable and management very competent. ***Please Note: Debt to equity shown in the chart is out of date. Check most recent reports on CY6U investor relations for current debt levels*** The company is currently trading below book value and has a P/E of less than 10. With a dividend yield of 6% you have an earnings and dividend return of 15%. This is not including any potential growth the company may experience in its earnings or asset value. Summary: Capitaland India Trust seems to be a quality company that is likely undervalued. Potentially due to the fact it is listed in Singapore as opposed to in India. Considering the growth in India buying this high quality assets below book value looks very appealing. I will update with further research and if I open a position.
SGX:CY6ULong
by sihen999
SIGA Technologies Analysis 6/24Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SIGA Technologies NASDAQ:SIGA SIGA Technologies is a bio pharmaceuticals company that is in the public health market. They develop and sell products to treat Smallpox, Ebola, and other public health threats. Management Effectiveness: The company has been consistently profitable since 2018, with margins averaging 30%-40% in recent years with only a few unprofitable quarters. Very quickly after the company became profitable they brought the debt to essentially nothing. In recent years the company's return on equity has been above 25%, indicating their research spending is used effectively. The company has a large cash position for potential investment in research. Valuation The company trade at a P/E of 6 and a p/cf of 8 they have paid special dividends for several years and could potentially implement a stock buyback program, at least that is something I would be considering if I were a board member (Disclosure: I am not a board member obviously). Summary NASDAQ:SIGA is a well run company, trading at an excellent valuation if you are willing to take the risk of a concentrated portfolio of products and volatile returns. They have several positive tailwinds including: International Expansion, Re-Valuation of the company due to implementation of a dividend or buyback policy, and increased public health awareness by international governments.
NASDAQ:SIGALong
by sihen999
4
Roche Analysis 6/26DISCLOSURE: as of 6/26 I have no open position in SIX:RO Roche is a Swiss based pharmaceutical conglomerate with a diverse range of operations and brands. The company has a long history of profitability and high returns on investment. Management Effectiveness: Roche has been around since 1896 and has had consistent growth over the economic cycles. Return on equity has been averaging 40% and although margins have compressed in recent years the company remains highly profitable and in a stable leverage position. Valuation: With a price to earnings of 20 and price to cash flow of 15 if looks potentially undervalued. I like companies that have a return on equity double that of the price to earnings, and that rule of thumb is met in this case. Summary: Roche looks like a quality company to potentially take some profits and diversify from my NASDAQ:SIGA position. However, for now it will stay on the watch list. I will be looking at OANDA:USDCHF as well as the valuation metrics I mentioned above. Here on my macroeconomic and current research shortlist watchlists: www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com Thanks for reading, have a good one
SIX:RO
by sihen999
SINOSTAR PEC Analysis 6/25Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SINOSTAR PEC SGX:C9Q Sinostar PEC is a Chinese Petrochemical company listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. They operate through central and northern China. Their main operation is to extract LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and process it to sell to manufacturers for fuel, scientific, and industrial purposes. ***Please Note: There are many aspects to their operations that any potential investor should know by reading the company's annual report, and of course none of this is to be taken as financial advice.*** - Management effectiveness: The company operates in a cyclical industry and has been consistently growing and profitable since 2014. The return on equity is consistently in above 10% and revenue growth looks stable. Margins have compressed in the last few years (Part of the whole cyclical thing), but that is exactly why I am looking now. Because the craziest thing about this company is the next section. - Valuation: The company is currently trading at 0.3x Book Value. Price/Earning Ratio of 1.7. Price/Cash Flow of 0.69. You may ask yourself why is the valuation so low? I asked the same thing and can think of risks, but they are all well compensated for in the valuation. The company has a healthy capital position and positive tailwinds. It is always important to consider the risks of currency fluctuations, inflation, increasing cost of goods. -Summary: Sinostar PEC seems to be a well run company with quality management, trading at very low prices. If you are looking for exposure to the Chinese economy and are comfortable with the risks (Currency fluctuation, Cyclicality, Liquidity, +more). This is one to research and consider.
SGX:C9QLong
by sihen999
3
PG - A stock to buy for the long termFor long-term investors, Procter & Gamble presents a compelling opportunity due to its strong fundamentals and growth prospects. PG’s consistent financial performance, characterized by steady revenue growth and robust profit margins, underscores its resilience and ability to generate shareholder value. The company’s strong brand portfolio and market leadership in key product categories provide a competitive moat, ensuring long-term revenue stability. The company’s strong balance sheet and cash flow generation capabilities provide a solid financial foundation for dividend growth and share buybacks while also investing in growth opportunities. For long-term investors, this translates to both income and potential capital appreciation.
NYSE:PGLong
by dividends4me
Stock Market Logic Series #9Two Daggers Buy Pattern EXPLAINED This is a super powerful pattern for a buy. Especially if you are a value investor. What do you want to look for? 1. You must see TWO daggers to the downside. A dagger is an extremely abnormal drop in price with a HUGE volume. You want to see the first dagger, and then pray for the price to continue falling at a normal rate. Normal rate = people are trying to pick the bottom (without success). Then you want to look for (wait = put alerts) for the SECOND DAGGER. Then after the second dagger arrives and you get a second sharp drop in price, then you want to expect a rejection up and a new strong trend up should emerge. 2. Exterme volume on the daggers! Ideally, you want the volume of the second dagger to be bigger than the first one. This means that someone is loading all he can get since he KNOWS KNOWS KNOWS that the price is going to get higher for sure. I bet you would have done the same... if you KNOW KNOW KNOW its going UP! This pattern does not happen all the time, and it is more likely to happen near the end of a bear market. But prices get so unreasonably cheap, that its obviously for fundamental reasons that they are wrong! so someone who KNOWS will take all the money he can get to load into this stock at this price.
NASDAQ:METAEducation
by ZoharCho