Valueinvesting
Value Investing at its FinestThanks to trading view, we do not have the capability to create groups specially for value investing. In the Indices group, I mentioned ALTM and lithium prices and its analysis of global demand and geo political factors.
People laughed at my idea and the bears came hunting on the group.
China has shut down a lithium plant leading to 8% decline in lithium production in the country which led to US lithium stocks soaring.
Value investing at its finest - only at Foxx Invest.
Feel free to DM me for value investing discussions. No charity. Trade an idea and analysis for an analysis and idea.
Feel free to see my previous ideas and check out their performances. No 15000 lines on a chart trying to outguess the other guy in a crowd of millions.
Simple, easy, detailed analysis leading to returns which you can see for yourself in all my ideas.
Never doubt the Foxx
Rotation - Growth Stocks > Value Stocks Growth Stocks:
Growth stocks are shares in companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies in the market. These companies typically reinvest their earnings to accelerate growth in the short term rather than paying dividends.
Value Stocks:
Value stocks are shares in companies that appear to be undervalued by the market. These companies typically have stable earnings and often pay dividends. They are often found in more established industries like finance or utilities.
In different economic conditions, one type may outperform the other, leading to rotations between growth and value in the market cycle.
Analysis:
The stock market is currently experiencing a unique situation where major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are setting new highs, but this growth is primarily driven by a small number of large tech companies (the "Magnificent 7"). This has led to a significant divergence between growth and value stocks, with growth stocks outperforming.
Dollar General | DG | Long at $90.00Dollar General NYSE:DG took a massive hit this morning after revising their future earnings guidance. The economy is showing many signs of a recession, and this is a clear warning. From a technical analysis perspective, it has retouched my "crash" simple moving average and may dip further into the $80's in the near-term. But, like many overall strong companies that suddenly plummet, I view this as a future opportunity given the strength of NYSE:DG as a business (holistically). Dollar General is the only grocery and home goods store around in many rural locations. So, while there is doom and gloom in the near-term, Dollar General is in a personal buy zone at $90.00. I view this as a starter position, though, with the potential for future declines/opportunities for additional share accumulation in the near-term.
Target #1 = $100.00
Target #2 = $122.00
Target #3 = $200.00+ (very-long term outlook...)
OPRA Analysis 8/20Disclosure: As of 8/20 I am long Opera Limited NYSE: OPRA
Opera is a browser company available on Mac, PC, and Mobile. They earn revenue through advertisements, as well as a search partnership with Google.
*This partnership with Google is a key risk for Opera as if the relationship falls apart they will lose a large portion of their revenue*
As a customer of Opera I can say they have a quality product and is well reviewed by the people I know who use it. Most of their user growth is organic. And with only 8% of the market going to Opera there is large room for growth.
Looking at the qualitative factors they have $0 debt, revenue has grown since their IPO in 2019 with a dip in 2021 that quickly recovered. Over this time period they have seen stable margins and a growing book value.
The valuation of this company is the main reason I am looking at it. With the price/book being 1.25 and the book value increasing there is limited downside to this company. The earnings+dividend yield is 21% which is a rough estimate of what your investment could return off of the current earnings. Please note that this does not include growth, so potential returns could be higher or lower.
Of course all investment decisions must be evaluated on their own merit of risk/reward and what factors you value. As always this is not financial advice, and read the annual reports and financial information prior to making any decisions.
Have a great day everyone!
$EL | Allocation | Market Exec | Technical Confluences:
- Fibonacci retracement since the beginning of NYSE:EL 's history, puts the price action at the 78% retracement level
- It coincides with a Demand Zone as can be seen across the price history
- Stochastics are in Oversold conditions from Monthly, Weekly, Daily, H4 and even H1
- Will likely put Buy Stop levels at the Interest Zone areas to target a move to the 50% Fibo Retracement of this drastic bear move
Fundamental Confluences:
- Deep discount on a well-renowned brand
- Earnings does not look too good at the moment but they do own some global brands names in beauty care
- Growth can be weak now, but do you see people stop putting on cosmetics and ignore their appearances when they go out? If no, this share is definitely worth a try
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Putting in 2 portions of my NYSE:EL allocation now with more orders to be placed on in the future
Long-Term value hold in my portfolio.
Remember, DYOR.
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Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
$INTC | Allocation | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
- Price action is close to the 78% Fibo Extension and is at a strong Demand Zone
- Stochastics is in Oversold conditions from Daily, Weekly and Monthly
Fundamental Confluences:
- Currently, Intel is trading at tangible book value ( thevalue you will get if the company gets liquidated)
- At such value, chances of a takeover might be there which means, potential premium to be paid on takeover news?
- After weak Q2 earnings, does it mean anything if the CEO starts buying the stock himself?
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With deep discount in NASDAQ:INTC 's value, another no-brainer and minimal risk. Intel is not going to liquidate.
Will be expecting a turnaround and definitely a Long-Term hold in my portfolio.
Remember, DYOR.
________________________________
Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
________________________________
Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
#SRM_Contractors All time high breakoutTechnical Analysis -
Resistance of Rs.240 is broken with huge volumes, potential to very high return in 1-2 years.
Fundamental Analysis -
Company is an Infrastructure player majorly works in Jammu & Kashmir region. Main clientele of this company is mainly Govt. companies like Border Road Organization, Indian Railway, National Highways Authority of India, etc.
Recently won 3 orders of new projects combined worth 568.25 Cr. Making their orderbook of 1248.25 Cr (guesstimate it can be more)
Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.
SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust AnalysisDisclosure: As of 07/12/2024 I have no open position in SGX: CY6U
Capitaland India Trust is a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that invests in commercial real estate across India.
They invest in office, data center, and logistics properties. Their portfolio is diversified across 5 major cities in India. In order of exposure: Hyderabad, Bangalor, Chennai, Pune, and Mumbai.
One risk to be aware of is the currency fluctuations of INR to SGD as well as the currency in you home country may affect returns. The company is highly profitable and looks to have manageable debt positions. Their debt is based in both SGD and INR.
The largest tenant of CY6U is Tata Consultancy Services, making up a total of 12% of base rents. The next largest are Infosys and Amazon at 6% and 4% respectively.
The company has a strong record of performance both in terms of profitability and return on investment. Debt levels appear to be manageable and management very competent.
***Please Note: Debt to equity shown in the chart is out of date. Check most recent reports on CY6U investor relations for current debt levels***
The company is currently trading below book value and has a P/E of less than 10. With a dividend yield of 6% you have an earnings and dividend return of 15%. This is not including any potential growth the company may experience in its earnings or asset value.
Summary: Capitaland India Trust seems to be a quality company that is likely undervalued. Potentially due to the fact it is listed in Singapore as opposed to in India. Considering the growth in India buying this high quality assets below book value looks very appealing. I will update with further research and if I open a position.
SIGA Technologies Analysis 6/24Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SIGA Technologies NASDAQ:SIGA
SIGA Technologies is a bio pharmaceuticals company that is in the public health market. They develop and sell products to treat Smallpox, Ebola, and other public health threats.
Management Effectiveness: The company has been consistently profitable since 2018, with margins averaging 30%-40% in recent years with only a few unprofitable quarters.
Very quickly after the company became profitable they brought the debt to essentially nothing.
In recent years the company's return on equity has been above 25%, indicating their research spending is used effectively.
The company has a large cash position for potential investment in research.
Valuation The company trade at a P/E of 6 and a p/cf of 8 they have paid special dividends for several years and could potentially implement a stock buyback program, at least that is something I would be considering if I were a board member (Disclosure: I am not a board member obviously).
Summary NASDAQ:SIGA is a well run company, trading at an excellent valuation if you are willing to take the risk of a concentrated portfolio of products and volatile returns. They have several positive tailwinds including: International Expansion, Re-Valuation of the company due to implementation of a dividend or buyback policy, and increased public health awareness by international governments.
Roche Analysis 6/26DISCLOSURE: as of 6/26 I have no open position in SIX:RO
Roche is a Swiss based pharmaceutical conglomerate with a diverse range of operations and brands. The company has a long history of profitability and high returns on investment.
Management Effectiveness: Roche has been around since 1896 and has had consistent growth over the economic cycles. Return on equity has been averaging 40% and although margins have compressed in recent years the company remains highly profitable and in a stable leverage position.
Valuation: With a price to earnings of 20 and price to cash flow of 15 if looks potentially undervalued. I like companies that have a return on equity double that of the price to earnings, and that rule of thumb is met in this case.
Summary: Roche looks like a quality company to potentially take some profits and diversify from my NASDAQ:SIGA position. However, for now it will stay on the watch list. I will be looking at OANDA:USDCHF as well as the valuation metrics I mentioned above.
Here on my macroeconomic and current research shortlist watchlists:
www.tradingview.com
www.tradingview.com
Thanks for reading, have a good one
SINOSTAR PEC Analysis 6/25Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SINOSTAR PEC SGX:C9Q
Sinostar PEC is a Chinese Petrochemical company listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. They operate through central and northern China. Their main operation is to extract LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) and process it to sell to manufacturers for fuel, scientific, and industrial purposes.
***Please Note: There are many aspects to their operations that any potential investor should know by reading the company's annual report, and of course none of this is to be taken as financial advice.***
- Management effectiveness: The company operates in a cyclical industry and has been consistently growing and profitable since 2014. The return on equity is consistently in above 10% and revenue growth looks stable. Margins have compressed in the last few years (Part of the whole cyclical thing), but that is exactly why I am looking now. Because the craziest thing about this company is the next section.
- Valuation: The company is currently trading at 0.3x Book Value. Price/Earning Ratio of 1.7. Price/Cash Flow of 0.69. You may ask yourself why is the valuation so low? I asked the same thing and can think of risks, but they are all well compensated for in the valuation. The company has a healthy capital position and positive tailwinds. It is always important to consider the risks of currency fluctuations, inflation, increasing cost of goods.
-Summary: Sinostar PEC seems to be a well run company with quality management, trading at very low prices. If you are looking for exposure to the Chinese economy and are comfortable with the risks (Currency fluctuation, Cyclicality, Liquidity, +more). This is one to research and consider.
PG - A stock to buy for the long termFor long-term investors, Procter & Gamble presents a compelling opportunity due to its strong fundamentals and growth prospects. PG’s consistent financial performance, characterized by steady revenue growth and robust profit margins, underscores its resilience and ability to generate shareholder value. The company’s strong brand portfolio and market leadership in key product categories provide a competitive moat, ensuring long-term revenue stability.
The company’s strong balance sheet and cash flow generation capabilities provide a solid financial foundation for dividend growth and share buybacks while also investing in growth opportunities. For long-term investors, this translates to both income and potential capital appreciation.
BA/SPX: STILL VALUEThought I would give an update. I have done nothing but buy $NYSE:BA. It remains historically undervalued. I just saw some Apache helicopters today, Airbus doesn't have those. These foolish "investors" are selling a staple of American tourism and the American war machine. I will buy as much as possible.
Buy low, sell high.
Will update in a few months.
Long NYSE:BA
$SPR Spirit Aerosystems. The Levered BA bet you don't know about$SPR is an aerospace parts supplier to Boeing. The manufacture large components of Boeing jets and also make parts for defense aircraft which is the fastest growing part of Spirit Aerosystem's business. As Boeing continues to recover, watch as $SPR probably move up even more violently. Target for investment is $100 in 2025
Stock Market Logic Series #9Two Daggers Buy Pattern EXPLAINED
This is a super powerful pattern for a buy. Especially if you are a value investor.
What do you want to look for?
1. You must see TWO daggers to the downside.
A dagger is an extremely abnormal drop in price with a HUGE volume.
You want to see the first dagger, and then pray for the price to continue falling at a normal rate.
Normal rate = people are trying to pick the bottom (without success).
Then you want to look for (wait = put alerts) for the SECOND DAGGER.
Then after the second dagger arrives and you get a second sharp drop in price, then you want to expect a rejection up and a new strong trend up should emerge.
2. Exterme volume on the daggers!
Ideally, you want the volume of the second dagger to be bigger than the first one.
This means that someone is loading all he can get since he KNOWS KNOWS KNOWS that the price is going to get higher for sure.
I bet you would have done the same... if you KNOW KNOW KNOW its going UP!
This pattern does not happen all the time, and it is more likely to happen near the end of a bear market. But prices get so unreasonably cheap, that its obviously for fundamental reasons that they are wrong! so someone who KNOWS will take all the money he can get to load into this stock at this price.
#MINT. French Net Net stock with big upside.October's Earnings saw #MINT fall into a negative Enterprise Value with the business now valued less than it's cash and assets on a per share basis.
The business is growing with a positive ROE and ROIC and has a huge runway in front of it.
It's unusual to find such a business in net net territory and I like that insiders continue to buy shares in the business.
Buying at around the 3.5 Euro price is a bet I'm willing to take.
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough.
Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving.
Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas.
We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications.
If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up.
To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions.
All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be:
1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart.
2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author.
3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link.
4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author.
If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button.
The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline".
Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals.
The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades.
The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption.
Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives.
"We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps."
Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century.
Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel.
Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent.
Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles.
"You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important."
Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future.
"This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division.
Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said.
Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations.
Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said.
The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said.
"We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline."
At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout.
Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again.
#MEGA
$GURE, a bizarrely cheap Net Net stock.Last quarterly report puts NASDAQ:GURE well within Net Net stock territory.
Accordingly to the latest report, NASDAQ:GURE has $115.3M in cash and $18.1M in liabilities. Per share, intrinsic cash value is $9.34 per share vs today's price of $2.06.
Even before factoring in current assets this stock meets the criteria of Benjamin Graham's Net Net stock status.
Cash burn doesn't seem to be an issue neither does share dilution which surely makes NASDAQ:GURE a stock to watch...IF the numbers are to be believed?