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Stunner: Oracle Breaks Out as Peers LanguishSoftware companies have lagged this year as investors focus on cyclicals like energy and financials. But one unexpected name is breaking out: Oracle. As covered previously, strong earnings lifted ORCL to new highs in December. It then pulled back to old resistance and bounced. This week, its shares are closing above their previous all-time highs. Two technical patterns stand out today. First, notice how ORCL broke above $64 on February 22. The stock barely pulled back in subsequent sessions, even as the broader S&P 500 dove to a three-week low. Second is ORCL’s relative strength compared to the broader technology sector. Both of these trends are signs of accumulation. One positive catalyst is ORCL’s improving momentum in cloud-computing, which prompted analysts to raise price targets after last quarter. Now buyers are re-engaging with another set of numbers about two weeks away. The company’s lower valuations may also provide some shelter against higher interest rates. ORCL trades for just 14 times forward earnings and 5 times revenue. Other big names like Salesforce.com and Adobe (which have gone half a year without hitting new highs) trade for at least 3 times more. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by TradeStation
Tesla buy or sell? Bubble?Reasons to buy Tsla Although electric cars occupy a small portion of the global automobile market, Tesla has acquired a large market share within this niche segment. Tesla has a little less then 1% marketshare worldwide which is impressive for a young car company like Tesla. Especially in the electric segment where it has 16% marketshare in 2019. The company has a strong performance adn the unique design helps the sales. For example the preorder of the Tesla Truck. Also the solar and storage deployments will probably witness significant growth aided by the positive reception of the Megapack and Powerwall products. The delivery of Model 3 has risen significantly, which counts for a big part of the companies overall deliveries since it the best selling car of Tesla so far. Besides Model 3, Model Y is also improving Tesla’s prospects. The construction progress for Gigafactory 4 in Berlin and Gigafactory 5 in Austin are also underway, with production from both plants expected to start this year. With China being the biggest EV market, Tesla’s ambitious production plans in the country bode well. Robust production of Model 3 from the new Gigafactory in Shanghai bode well for its future growth. The Shanghai factory is ramping up well and commands a higher market share in the Chinese EV market. Over a multi-year horizon, Tesla anticipates achieving 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. Meanwhile, low leverage of Tesla offers financial flexibility. Notably, its long-term debt-to-capital ratio stands at 0.31, lower than its industry's 0.54. Historically, from 2016 to 2020 sales of TSLA increased in average of 45% from one year to another, with an estimate of 49% sales growth for 2021 and 33% for 2022. The liquidity and Solvency of Tesla are both scoring good which means Tesla is able to pay of short term as long term obligations. Reasons to sell Tesla inc The company’s high R&D and SG&A costs do raise concerns. During the last reported quarter, R&D and SG&A costs were up both yearly and sequentially. Capex soared 138% year over year and is likely to increase this year as well, thereby affecting cash flow and margins. Tesla's excessive reliance on credit sales remain a concern. In 2020, Tesla posted a net GAAP income of $721 million. Without the regulatory credit sales, the firm would have incurred a loss to the tune of $859 million. Stretched valuation of Tesla is a concern. Going by the EV/EBITDA multiple, which is often used to value auto stocks, Tesla is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 187.9, considerably higher than the industry average of 52.41. The firm’s P/S ratio of 17.3 also compares unfavorably to the industry’s 3.05. Tesla bubble? Based on the future outlook of the industry and the company and considering all the discussion around TSLA bubble, it can be assessed which will be the fair value for the company at the moment. For this, the EPS reported for last quarter was taken and annualised which gives us 0,96$ per share. Based on recent developement and estimation, it is forecasted that Tesla will have an annual growth in earnings of 40% each year, first 5 years and 10% from year 6 to year 15. For safety reason 15 years is the number of years we will calculate with as there is a reasonable time to recover an investment. The forecasted EPS after 15 years based on this growth is around 12,17$ per share. Multiplying these with a decent P/E ratio of 35, the fair price would be currently below 500$, while the real price is just under 800$. Buy or not? Although it is clear that the company is the market leader and may outperform without problem any other company from the industry for the never ending future, however, following value investing principles, the current price is out of real position and may lead to the fact that the stock is overvalued. Thus, the stock may face a corrective action in the near future. However, it is a bit funny to observe that even in a period of instability and uncertainty and in this Covid-19 situation, where people use the cars a lot less, Tesla kept it's position, and even increased its position, without recording great losses. This could mean that value trading as we know, may not be applicable anymore and the investors should adjust and adapt trading principles and behaviours accordingly. If you are a value investor, like I am, then Tesla is not the right choice to invest in.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Sharona_vf
Polkadot (DOT) Still a Sleeping Giant Under $30 Polkadot is the biggest decentralized finance (DeFi) blue-chip cryptocurrency and will be taking the cryptocurrency world by storm this year. There will be an extensive amount of projects being built on top of the Polkadot network this year as Polkadot will be the incubator for the future of DeFi. Especailly when Initial Dot Offerings (IDOs) start gaining traction. Polkadot is less than a year old with only a 25 Billion market cap. We're still in the early stages of this bull market and there will be an enormous amount of growth that will take place in Polkadot and in DeFi. This bull market will be about Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, and NFTs. Rest assured that Polkadot will be leading the DeFi world in the months and years to come. The fundamentals are very sound bullish for Polkadot there's a reason why it's a top 10 cryptocurrency. It looks like Polkadot gearing up to retest it's all time highs from the initial offering dump. Polkadot will run past $30. I expect for us to easily climb to our Fibbonacci level of 0.618 putting us at $32.20 as we work our way up to retesting a $50 dollar Polkadot in the coming weeks or months. I'm adding to my portfolio. As always much love and peace!
KRAKEN:DOTUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
Looking for a nice bounce of the EMA to long Amazon.1.6 Trillion dollar company here. Amazon is a near and dear company to my heart. Not only do I use their services regularly I find they deliver an exceptional client experience and have been doing that consistently for a long time. I wish nothing but good things for Bezos and his new venture and hope he finds great success being more hands on with blue origins. This company is a growth machine. They have brilliantly mastered the flywheel effect, you can read more about that from Jim Collins latest book, and I think they have a lot more room for growth despite the gigantic size they already are. Fundamentals for the company are stunning: P/E 78.71 (For Amazon this is shockingly not too bad) Employees 1,298,000 - WOW P/FCF 63.21 (Yes very high) Debt/Eq 0.55 (Very low) Long Term Debt/Eq 0.53 (again very low, and its good to see them take advantage of low rates) -Obviously in reading that, no one is buying Amazon as a value play. The opportunity here is in growth, and It think it is time to plan our entry as an aggressive growth play due to the following: EPS this Y +81% EPS past 5Y 101.8%! Sales Past 5Y +29.3% Sales Growth Q/Q +43% EPS Q/Q +117.5% ROE 27.1% Equity Ownership Insiders Own 10.6% Insider Transactions over past 3 Months -1.9% Institutions Own 58.7% Institution Transactions -0.03% 2/10/21 ZenMode Price Target $4,000 2/3/21 UBS Price Target $4,150 2/3/21 Susquehanna Price Target $5,200 2/3/21 Stifel Price Target $4,000 2/3/21 J P Morgan Price Target $4,400 2/3/21 Goldman Price Target $4,500 2/3/21 Deutsche Bank Price Target $4,250 2/3/21 Barclays Price Target $3,860 If you found this content helpful gentleman please be sure to give it a like and a share. If you think I missed something important in the analysis please be sure to share it with me and the community to aid us in learning more!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ZenMode
1
LILA long [Target: $20]1) Given the current market dynamics, now may be a great time to buy "value" stocks. For example, I also really like $MO (roughly 8% dividend yield right now and a beautiful ascending triangle reversal pattern on the weekly chart). 2) I like Elon Musk but the company is grossly over-valued, and his $1.5 billion investment in bitcoin has a bubble like sentiment. Not that this provides any direct information about LILA's stock price, but my intuition is that it signals that the shift from growth to value in near. 3) The stocks with the highest daily volumes right now are meme stocks and penny stocks that have negative EPS and are in horrible financial situations. 4) The S&P500 growth stocks have significantly out-performed the S&P500 value stocks, but I believe this trend will start to shift in the near future. 5) Recent 13F filings show that value minded investors also find LILA an attractive buy right now. **Not stock advice, do your own research**
NASDAQ:LILALong
by jfs2152
4
Investing idea nr. 4 FHIHello everyone, this article is about Federated Hermes Inc. This is asset-management company, which work in investing and consulting too. Ticker: FHI Index: SP500 Sector: Finance and asset management HQ: 1001 Liberty Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15222-3779 Local offices: UK, USA, Canada, Europe This company is interesting for investing because: 1. She is under goverment control (SEC and European regulators). It means, that company is more strong and can cover her payments and debts. 2. Broad offer of products. It gives diverse incoming, which can cover each other. 3. Wise and flexible money and investing management, which give a possibility to use loans, unlike other companies. 4. Buy out own stocks makes positions of the company stronger. 5. High ROA (16,36%) and ROE (28,72%) show good asset-management and long-term competitive advantage of this company. 6. Current ratio is more than 1. That means, that company do not have risk becoming bankrupt. 7. Company show real results of activity. PE is close to Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow. 8. Results are only from operating activity (PE = PE without NRI). 9. She don't have critical debt level (Debt-to-Equity = 19%, that is less then critical level in 40%). 10. Company had audit by Ernst & Young. She cares about trust from investors. Price at publication moment was 25,65. VSA analysis show this levels for buying: Level 1: 24.5 — 26.5 Level 2: 23 - 24 Level 3: 21.5 — 22.5 This company have good chances to strong, stable grow, which is based on real value and is good for including into the portfolio. They have good asset management, wise investing activity and is under government control. Wish You have good profits and lucky investing. Financial analyst and advisor, Valerii Selin.
NYSE:FHILong
by ValueInvest_Pro
1
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year. Opportunity 1) Small Cap (50m) 2) Sell side has not discovered it yet 3) Flying under the radar Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile Business Overview NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions. Home care covers such activities as: Dementia care Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower Medication reminders Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions Light housekeeping Meal preparation Home healthcare covers such activities as: Skilled nursing At-home physical therapy Pain Management Caring for wounds Prescription management Customer Value Proposition Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility COVID-19 Tailwind Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship. Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap. M&A Strategy 1. M&A Criteria Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria: 1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus 2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand 3) Normally 5+ year history 4) Opportunities for operational synergies 5) $1M-$15M of Revenues Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it. M&A Playbook and Integration Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations. First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate. Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin. Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies. Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software. Operating Philosophy CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders. Unit Economics The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25. Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00. Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9. Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA “Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA. In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact. Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x. HQ Operations The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function. The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies. Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5). HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year. Scaling What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders. Valuation and Upside Potential As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside Risks M&A Integration M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception. 2. Leverage NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue. Catalysts 1. Continuous M&A 2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.
TSXV:NLHLong
by JabroniCapital
1
Crypto.com (CRO) Still Full of Potential & Extremely UndervaluedCrypto.com has had a rough past couple of months to say the least. A lot of fear uncertainty and doubt has been plaguing this coin since September due to a lot of internal changes and protocols. Despite the capitulation of Crypto.com (CRO) it still remains a top 20 cryptocurrency with a solid 1.4 Billion dollar market cap as of today. A coin with already a ton of utility and adoption I believe Crypto.com is here to stay and will get picked back up during this bull cycle. This coin has a working product that many people across the world actively use everyday. Myself included. With that being said it has been trading at all time lows relative to its Bitcoin value and could be a great time to accumulate at these prices if you believe in this project. On a technical side Crypto.com (CRO) may have potentially bottomed out in its Bitcoin value. It is still very much oversold on the RSI as well. This could present a great buying opportunity with a ton of upside from here in 2021. Support: Around 166 Sats Resistance: Around 430 sats Cheers and be safe!
C
by peacefuljustin
8
Bitcoin weekly and the great debateThe argument I don’t get it, the Peter Schiff vs BTC HODL-ers argument, right? I mean what defines being right or wrong? First of all, it depends on the arguments matter and the exact statement about it. Like “is BTC like gold?” -sure not. One can find several statements against BTC and/or gold and both can be true, false, right or wrong (at a certain point of time) as it all depends on the actual action the person would take about it (when to buy, sell, short or hold forever - but for what reason?). And in my opinion it doesn’t make any sense to look at a chart and say such “see, I’m right” or “see, you’re wrong” stuff because as long as an actual trade is not closed, it’s just a meaningless number on a chart (paper gains) that can (and will) change any time, contradicting the previous instances without asking for permission. Lucky BTC Still, the unbelievable lucky long example for BTC here is that for the past 2 years, even the dumbest FOMO HODLer who bought in at the very top of the end of the 2017 rally (@ $19500) by selling his/her house and mother and went FULL IN like a crazy, now can say he/she was right as this was a 2 year long trade, made 78% profit, so Mr.Shiff, you lose with your gold (gold made 50% during this period, BTW) and I walk out with the big bucks. End of story. :D Gold long term? I’m also looking at the past performance of gold now: I found a peak in 1980, but that was such long time ago, you have to calculate inflation too, so for example if I bought an ounce of gold back then in 1980 for... say $826, then in 2020 the same item should cost about $2600 (as the 216% cumulative rate of inflation for the dollar). And the gold is now just below $1900 so I would have lost quite a bit in 40 years on this trade, right? No way, after all it was supposed to be a hedge and a long term investment, so probably I'm missing something here, I didn't sleep last night, can't think now, help me out guys.. So, the real value of the asset went down during this past 40 years? Gosh, what would Mike Maloney would say? I recommend checking his channel out, BTW because lot's to learn from him if you want some insight on long term investments, gold, real estate macro and wealth cycles. Maybe it is now time to buy, then? Or is it “now or never”? :D OK, I'm not serious now, sorry about that (but he is smart and cool so I recommend looking at his stuff). Right or wrong So, in my opinion the definition of (about an investment or a trade) being right or wrong manifests itself at (and not before) the point of closing the trade. Whenever the person sells the stock or gold or covers the short position or gets out of whatever the asset we had put on the table and argued over. Bottom line My advice is to watch from the sidelines and learn and/or execute a smart and profitable plan. A real one. As sure, BTC might go up 100k or 300k one day but also it might make a correction back to 20k, 14k, 10k and/or 7k any time. So the point is not what “might” happen. The point is what can we know for sure (not much in my opinion), what are the possibilities (learn from history) and what is your personal goal and plan. Think like this girl Viv with her Model3. She bought TSLA stocks (I don’t remember when, probably 2017 or so? doesn’t matter now) and sold in 2020 with such a profit so she could buy a new car out of it. This is a plan, executed as it should be, and not a ‘living on hopeium for the rest of days’ kind of clueless and unsure/dangerous thing. In other words: get a life! Paper gains are not real. Think about the odds: are You gonna be the 80% who loses or the 20% with the real profits in the stock market? Trade safe. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Probably I’ll post this following text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it. Introduction and the mindset: 8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe for flipping. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. My experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and it’s unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium) or future expectations based on past performance. This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio, all my past ideas and talk about them with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks. My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer): In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also I didn’t know any known influencer back then. My recent/actual ideas and how to do it: I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose on the whole. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will recover and pay good dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover as soon as Covid is over) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too, no matter what) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus looking at the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde or in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history tells me that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market. The examples I analyzed: 1929, 2000, 2008. And doesn’t the 2008 example tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the stock market rally instead of everyone else?) But yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different”, right? :D Jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and some solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future. Why and how? A simple enough hint for example: if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) or did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance, IBM is big (didn’t disappear at all) and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO and/or the ones who didn’t sell at the top, and I think this applies to the majority. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later) this is my point. So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or of any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both to the fundamentals and financials or in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority are investments for 3-5 years plus sometimes they are/were swing trades (based on price action) too: TSLA in 2020 again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (mostly swing trades); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit I made on it).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by janfoux
1
Value investing toolkitHello Investors! This educational post is about my toolkit developed for filtering out the almost perfect applicants for further analysis and research in the light of the principals of value investing. The work is based upon Warren Buffett's principals, calculations and recomendations. After publishing my two previous posts on the "Value investing chart set" and the "Intrinsic value calculation" I have received a lots of positive comments and feedbacks. Alongside the encouraging comments I have received quite a lots of requests to share the chart layout and the other scripts I am using while compiling the chart set I have introduced. I have promised to further develope both tools and come up with an even more powerfull toolkit. Now it is here! :-) I have combined the already published Intrinsic value calculation script with the Value investing chart set and further developed both on the way! This setup now is way more powerfull and exciting and is loaded with features as described below. First of all: here is the public link to the shared chart layout setup: www.tradingview.com Which company could be more adequate for the introduction of a value investing toolkit than Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett? It is not just an honor to use this ticker for educational purposes but aparently -as you can see during the analysis- it makes a perfect long term investment! What a surprise, right? :-) Here I will only explain all the new features of this chart as there is a very detailed explanation of both the Intrinsic value calculation script and the Value investing chart set in those two posts. You can find the links for them below. SO! Obviously the biggest developement is poping into your eyes right away: I have programed a value investing analysis tool into the chart so whenever you enter a ticker, the toolkit will supply you with an instant assesment on the given ticker. Of course it is a very basic tool and can only supply you with a preliminary overview on the company and does not, in any way substitute detailed and troughly research before you make any investment decission! - The assessment is based on the principals Warren Buffett, Ben Graham layed down. Some of Peter Lynch's work has been used, too. - The tool is using a rather conservative approach as the main goal is to maintain the capital invested and only additional to that to produce adequate gain on the long run In general: if you see a green labell with the text 'Possible subject for firther research' than you have found a company which passed a conservative test and is worth for further study. Needless to say that if you see a red label with the text 'XX NOT RECOMENDED XX' and a bunch of reasons below, why (overvalued - overpriced - debt risk) do not rush to your broker to put your life savings on it. To give you an example, here is how Google is evaluated today: In order to get the green light a company has to meet the following, rather strict criterias: - Valuation: The current price of the stock has to be below the Intrinsic value. (In this case $224 closing price vs. $426 for the Int. value) This line will precisely tell you how far the price is from the Intrinsic value, in other words, it will tell you your margin of safety when investing to the company on today's price level. In this example it is 90% - Pricing: The close price has to be below the "Buffetts limit price" indicator. To make it short Graham and Buffet stated that the number you get when multiplying the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio with the Price to book (P/B) ratio has to be below 22.5 in order to consider the given share cheap. This line will tell you how far the price is from the Buffetts limit price. This case it is 61%. ($224 vs. $361) - Debt risk: The company has to have much less debt than equity in order to qualify for long term value investing. The limit here is 1, meaning that the company has to have more equity than total debt. If this is not the case, the company fails the test. (This can be taken a little flexible as certain industries, like banking and insuarance by definition deploy a lots of debt instruments without risking their long term profitability or sustainability) In the example of Bershire this is 0,27 meaning that Berkshire has more than 3 times more equity than debt which is needless to say a more than perfect setup. (What do we expect from Mr. B, right?) These are the first 3 deciding criterias where a company can fail the test. Any of those turn to be out of range, you will get a red labell with a big fat NO recomendation. And most of the time this is going to be the case... As for the other points you will get more inside peek into the state of the company: - Price/book: this line will tell you if the price is still below the 1.5 times book value point. This is the highest price what value investors find comfortable paying. If the P/E value is very low for the share you might run into a situation where the Buffetts limit (P/E times P/B) is still low (below 22,5) but the stock is rather overpriced. You will not get a red labell here, only a 'Caution' warning and a grey label, instead of 'GOOD!' - Earnings: you will get an opinnion on the earnings here. The main criteria to get a 'GOOD!' evaluation is to have a growing level of EPS in the last 5 years. - Revenue: It is very important to invest in a company which is able to grow it's revenues steadily. This line will analyse that and will tell you if it wouldn't be so. - Profit & loss: Although it is not a deciding factor but a value investor should avoid investing to companies that were producing losses in the past decade or so. This line examines the last 5 years in this respect. - Dividend: The one and only point where Berkshire fails the test! :-) As Warren Buffett used to say: I am not paying income tax, Berkshire doesn't pay dividend... :-) Poor guy! Since we are investing for a very long term it is imperative that we top the gains we might have over the years with the 3-4% dividend p.a. As you can see here, there is a Warning! comment should the company fail in paying dividend. - Number of shares: Here you will see a quick analysis on the share buyback habits of the company/management. Again, what we examine here is wether the number of shares outstanding is less than 5 years ago or more which means that the company is buying back it's shares thus help investors to maintain equity. So entering your choosen ticker you should have an instant overview if the company can supply you with the value investing criterias or fails in this field. One very instructive exercise is to click through the leading blue chip stocks with this valuation toolkit and see how hugely overvalued they are at the moment. Some further developements I made in the mean time: - I have automated the calculation of the book value growth with finding the very first data point regardless when it happens. In this way you do not have to enter any parameter and you can simply click conveniently from one ticker to the other without reentering the needed inputs. Hopefully it doesn't matter which pricing structure you are in at TradingView. Free acounts will use 5 years data. - I have included a 4th pane just below the main pane. This shows the revenue of the company in 3 way: the white line is the anual values, the grey line is the quarterly data and I have also added the red line showing the TTM (trailing twelve month) figure in order to visualise the very recent trends in the revenue of the company. - The same way I have added the TTM figure on the lowest pane to the EPS figure, for the same reasons. - I have added explanatory labells to the right of the charts showing the actual value of the indicators, like the Intrinsic value, Buffetts limit, and book value. - Should either the Book value or the EPS figure be negative for the current year the script will issue a red label without any data regardless the other values as the Buffetts limit can not be calculated. (Negative numbers does not have square roots and that is required to calculate the limit price back from the P/E and the P/B values) One final remark: this toolkit is as complete as my knowledge is about value investing. It is a purely educational tool, not in any way intented to be investment advice. I do use this tool and for instance I do have position in this example company Bershire Hathaway at the time of writing this post. You have to make your own research and decision when it comes to investing your money. For further explanation on the Intrinsic value calculation please check my earlier post here: For further explanation on the Value investing chart set please check my earlier post here:
Editors' picks
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by PeterNagy
108
Value investing chart setI would like to share the set of charts I use to find and analyse candidates for value investing. It is a rather dense and telling setup where you can find a lots of information. Please allow me to explain them one by one. (The chart is made on the company Nippon Tel. It is not a recomendation for anybody to buy Nippon Tel, I use this chart for educational purposes only) So: what can you see in this chart? A LOT! You can, in a glance asses if a company would qualify for value investing or should be avoided. From bottom up here are the panes, charts, indicators explained: There are 3 panes in this setup. In the lowest pane you will find the dividend information. There are 3 indicators telling a lot about the company's endurance and discipline. We can see that in our example - the company has never been missing a dividend payment over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company has been constantly raising the dividends over the last 15 years - the company has made an ever growing diluted EPS (earnings per share) over the last 15 years - the investment in the current price levels would yield 3,69% (bottom right scale) - the company has been very disciplined to pay out about 50% of the earnings per share and retain the rest within the company resulting growing book value In the middle pane you can see the net income (green territory) of the company and the number of common shares outstanding (blue line). We can see that in our example - the company has been constantly making profit over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company constanly buying its shares back thus helping the existing shareholders to keep/grow the equity per share Now the top, main pane tells the most about the company and its share. Here is what you can read from this chart: - the yellow line will show the Debt to Equity ratio What this is telling you is that the company is ran by vigiliant leaders who are keeping a close eye on the company's long and short therm debt and resist the temptation of today's really cheap loans. As Peter Lynch use to say: it is almost impossible to go bankrupt for a company without excessive debt. The ratio Ben Graham and Warren Buffet (also Peter Lynch) finds healthy here is a 1 to 2 debt to equity ratio. In other words, it is assuring if half of the equity covers all the debt of the company. In the case of our example the current value of this ratio is 0,415 which is a very good level of debt. (Industry specific figure!) The company has been constantly paying it's debt back over the last 15 years and although the figure has been growing during the last 2 years it is still under a acceptable level. - the light brown line is the book value or the shareholder1s equity per share Needless to say the for a value investor it is imperative that the book value is steadily growing, just like in our example from 8,8 to 21. What is even more important is that the current price is below the book value per share or in other words a buyer in these price levels gets a 1 on 1 value for his bucks. Just to give you a comparison: today this value for Apple (AAPL) is 30 to 1! So you pay $ 30 for $ 1 of equity when you buy Apple stock. In our example the book value of this company is steadily growing and the price is currently below the book value. - the pink line on the pane is my "invention" as this is the intrinsic value graph which is calculated by the script I have posted already here. I would not explain in details here, please check out my post and all the comments below it for details. This line shows you what would be a fair value of the stock if you take all the dividends and the book value growth that will happen in the next coming 10 years and discount it back to today's value using the 10 years US Note's yield. This is called the intrinsic value of the company and calculating it is rather art than science, says Buffett. In the case of the example company the Intrinsic Value is around 43 while the price is a bit above 20 which means that a value investor has a 100% margin of safety when buying this stock. - the green/red line is another calculated line: Warren's limit price Ben Graham and Warren Buffett uses a rule of thumb saying that the PE (price earning ratio) multiplied by the Price to Book ratio can not result a higher value than 22.5 to be considered a cheap stock. Here I use the Diluted Earnings figure to calculate the PE ratio to take all the convertible securities (options, prefered stocks, warrants, etc) into consideration. This line shows if the stock can be valued as cheap or overpriced. In the case of our example the current price is under the limit price and can be considered an underpriced stock. As you can see there are lots of fundamental informations you can visualise and asses with this chart setup in order to pick your winning stocks for value investing.
Editors' picks
FWB:NTTEducation
by PeterNagy
29
NNOX: TSLA OF HEALTCARE?After successful breakout above 51, NNOX has been retracing to test the newly formed RBS. Fundamentally, it has had a successful launch of its futuristic looking NANOx.ARC, which design can only be seen in Startrek or Starwars movies before this. This could provide major tailwind for NNOX as Xray imaging is one of the most essential diagnostic process especially during the current era of chest & lung loving virus. Looking to enter at current level and hold forever. DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice nor a buy call. This is just some analysis of based on some technical factors coupled with just a little or totally nonexistent fundamentals. This analysis is based on lagging (past) data (ie historical prices) thus any forward looking statement is just based on perceived highly probabilistic assumption(s) to assist personal trading decision.
NASDAQ:NNOXLong
by mdzulfid
3
PSTH: SUPERBULL BIASNothing much could be done to technically analyze PSTH given that it has a short historical data (just IPOed). However, given that it is a blank check company (SPAC) with potential to raise more capital to acquire long-term high growth companies and some hardcore value investor and highly intelligent men are behind this SPAC, we could only imagine the upside that PTSH shareholder might get. Looking forward to enter around 25 level and hold it for long term. DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice nor a buy call. This is just some analysis of based on some technical factors coupled with just a little or totally nonexistent fundamentals. This analysis is based on lagging (past) data (ie historical prices) thus any forward looking statement is just based on perceived highly probabilistic assumption(s) to assist personal trading decision.
PLong
by mdzulfid
Is Walgreen Boots Finally Done Falling?Walgreen Boots Alliance has trended lower since mid-2015. However now it could be showing signs of a historic turn. The first thing that jumps out on this chart is the false breakdown in late October, followed by signs of a higher low this month. Notice how WBA knifed under $34 before spiking back above $44. Next, where are prices stabilizing? The current level around $38 is important for two reasons. First, it roughly matches the peaks October 16-23. Second, it’s on top of the downward sloping trend line. That means WBA could be finding new support at old resistance. Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has turned positive and the stock is now bouncing at it. Stochastics show an oversold condition as well. Finally, the long-term momentum has been improving. MACD has been rising on the weekly chart for more than a year – even as prices made lower lows. That’s bullish divergence. WBA fell last week after Amazon.com launched its Pharmacy service. However the fundamental story showed a surprising turnaround last quarter. Speaking of fundamentals, WBA's forward P/E ratio is in the single digits. That makes it a potential “value stock,” which is the kind of name investors are now seeking. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:WBALong
by TradeStation
2
Want some exposure to an Argentinian Bank? 9.85% DividendThis is a Bank HQ'd in Argentina and is a great buy at this price. P/E 1.75 (Value) Debt/Eq (0.03) hardly any debt Market Cap 1B 6,200 Employees Insiders Own 76% This is great and one of the reasons it sports a 9.85% Dividend! ...We getting paid here folks! Institutions Own 4.2% ROI 47.3% ROE 29.7% Sales Past 5Y +48% Yes earnings took a tumble..but so did the price guys! EPS Q/Q -70.7% Keep in mind the history here! EPS 5Y +53.3! Are we talking value and growth and dividends in the same play here?! :) I'm a buyer at this price.
NYSE:BBARLong
by ZenMode
2
JKS - too good to be trueAfter recommending NYSE:JKS for long term purchase last November, idea went trully ballistic in recent months making around +500% since the time of recommendation. Despite such price increase, company still does not seem particularly expensive (it was a bargain in low teens) and high purchasing volume also hints that trend higher may continue for years to come. However, short term wise, JKS is clearly very overbought, and decent correction may ensue shortly. looking for spots to take some profits off the table should be priority strategy in the upcoming weeks.
NYSE:JKS
by Silvestrov
Educational materials nr. 7This article is about Balance Sheet metrics. They are including metrics, which show proportions and structure of the company. Structure of the company include own capital, assets and loans. It can tell also about financial stability of the company too. Equity-to-Asset — relation equities to assets. Show using own resources in producing of the products. Cash-To-Debt — relation cash to debt. If more — that is better. If this indicator is higher then 1, that means, that company can pay her debts more then 1 time. Indicate financial strengh of the company. Debt-to-EBITDA — relation debt to operational income. Helping metric. Debt-to-Equity — relation debt to own capital. Critical meaning — 0,4. This meaning can depend from sector of the company and current expectations and situation of the company. Interest Coverage — relation operating income to interest payments. Indicates financial strengh. If higher — that is better. All of them are important in the complex analysis of the company and her financial stability. If company has good operational results, but not good financial stability and dangerous structure with high ammount of debts, she will not be good candidate for investing.
NYSE:FHIEducation
by ValueInvest_Pro