JHQTX and OPEX Window of Weakness 1. Vanna and Charm Flows gain strength 2. VIX Print for the month 3. Window of Weakness Options and Vol are entering in a very fragile time when flows can be at their technical weakest. When social media start speaking about goldilocks (economy goes not to hot, not to cold). That could be this months OPEX (Options Expiry). A...
Make volatility great again campaign is growing in popularity. The battle ground is the 4k inversion point for the SLR / ON RRP Bull Traps, Bear Traps. So far 2023 is shaping up to be the year an unmovable object meets an unstoppable force. Check back on FEB 1. When Jerome Powell is being asked to film a follow up to his last hit performance.
Here is a cheatsheet for the upcoming expiration of JHEQX Collar. It's the reason why anything is sold over 3835. and why we get so many V shaped days under 3835. IV decays fast because of the holidays. Unless there is an event that triggers a spike in IV. Otherwise at some point while the call is OTM the the IV will decay on the call causing a Vanna...
It seems VANNA/CHARM are back from vacation! Hedges are likely piling in as Jackson Hole approaches. Lots of reflexive moves this week while the markets are standing on eggshells waiting for Powell. You know the routine! I doubt any direction will come until CPI on Sept 13. Until then. Chop Chop, Maybe a little Drop.
Do you hear nothing that I say. But moving a single stock around is one thing, moving the entire market is totally different. No, No Different, Only in your mind. You Must Un-Learn what you have learned. Alright, I'll give it a try No, Try Not. Do, Or Do Not. There is no Try I Can't. The Market is too Big. Size Matters Not. Judge me by my size do...
Big fan of FinTwit and 15 minute VIX. Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern StrizziJ Calls out the top this morning on Tue 15min. Cem Karsan (Jam Croissant) explains in a tweet in January that these are Vanna Flows. Vol down every day means buying indices overnight. Vol up means selling overnight. Vanna/Charm flows are hedged by banks & naive primary dealers on...
I'm going to breakdown JPM big 20 billion dollar Put Spread Collar Hedge trade early this quarter. The trade usually gets a lot of attention when they do the roll/reset on the day it expires each quarter. For the uninitiated, this trade occurs every quarter by JPM as a premium neutral hedge (market crash protection) for a 20B fund. Furus try to explain the...
My posts keep getting banned for linking to twitter content so I'll keep this brief. Keep an eye on the vix after open today. Any sustained move up over 40 is likely to cause big moves down > -6% This is likely where the market could enter negative VEX. most notable -VEX were the corona crash and in late 2008 I don't have the tool programmed to view...
It's going to be an extremely tough week to trade ES. There is no clear directional sentiment. I'll point out arguments for each side: Bullish sentiment: - We saw some VERY aggressive buying (and selling of SPX puts) on Friday near lows. in a normal market, the sheer volume and intensity of these trades would have been enough to call a bottom. - VIX is at...
Last week was super interesting on multiple fronts (Powell sticking around, new Covid variant, etc.). Despite seeing a big risk-off movement due to Omicron strain on Friday, we are long-biased going into this week. Here is why: 1. There was **heavy** dark pool activity in SPY 2. The sell off on Friday pushed dealers into a huge negative gamma position (appx....
Hey, you guys, look, I know I'm just the dude that carries the bags. If you want to know what happened with GME in January watch this . Most interest to me is the selling of puts It's good to get a basic understanding of Gamma and Vanna exposures for market makers. The important takeaway is "market makers who are long puts, or long gamma, By knowing how...
Hey everyone SamC here, we are going to start posting some set ups for the following trading day of a couple names we are watching. Feel free to ask questions in the comments and give us a follow.
Hey everyone SamC here, we are going to start posting some set ups for the following trading day of a couple names we are watching. Feel free to ask questions in the comments and give us a follow.