CASA - FLAT BASEPosition update: July 10, 2025.
Key factors:
1. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
2. A textbook Flat Base with a clear, low-risk entry.
3. The base has VCP characteristics.
4. The stock moves on its own drummer, hitting an all-time high while the index struggles to reclaim its highs.
5. A shakeout that weed out weak holders has strengthen the setup properly.
6. Volume has dried up, indicating less supply coming to the market.
7. Strong fundamentals, with consistent increased in year-over-year earnings growth.
Consideration: The breakout was not accompanied by a significant volume surge.
This is a classic Flat formation or Darvas Box Theory with a clear pivot entry and minimal risk. I’m starting to see increased traction in my personal trades—a very positive sign to trade larger in this market environment.
VCP
TAPG - VCP (11W 18/4 3T)IDX:TAPG - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on a pivot level.
2. Volume dries up.
3. Price has been above the MA 50 for over 10 weeks, with values exceeding 150, 200, and 300.
4. Price is within 25% of its 52-week high.
5. Price is over 30% of its 52-week low.
6. The 200-day MA has been trending upwards for over a month.
7. The RS Rating is above 70 (86).
8. There has been a significant breakout with substantial volume
**EPS Growth:**
a. Quarterly QoQ: -46.42%.
b. Quarterly YoY: +117.27%.
c. TTM YoY: +111.05%.
d. Annual YoY: +94.02%.
(-)
1. Trump Implements a 32% Increase in Tariffs on Indonesia
2. The market is volatile due to the ongoing war
TAPG (VCP 10W 18/4 3T)Position update: July 9, 2025.
Key factors:
1. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
2. A textbook VCP setup with a clear, low-risk entry
3. Has absorbed its majority line of supply.
4. The stock moves on its own drummer, hitting an all-time high while the index struggles to reclaim its highs.
5. High relative strength.
6. Volume has dried up, indicating less supply coming to the market.
7. Strong fundamentals, with consistent triple-digit year-over-year earnings growth.
8. Significant volume surge on the breakout.
Considerations: Despite a favorable technical setup, risk should be managed diligently given the stock's sharp ascent and potential for profit-taking. Establishing stop-loss levels and monitoring market conditions is essential.
This is a quintessential VCP breakout with a clear pivot entry and minimal risk. I’m starting to see increased traction in the market now—a very positive sign to scale up trading size.
$BSX VCP-style ascending triangleBoston Scientific (BSX)
Pattern
VCP-style ascending triangle. Three higher lows have squeezed price against the 108 ceiling while volume dries up each contraction.
Trigger & Risk Plan
• Buy-stop: 108.15 on ≥150 % average volume
• Stop: 102.00 (handle low / rising trend-line)
• Starter size only; add 25 % more if price closes above 110.50 the same day.
Reward Map
Measured triangle target 118 — followed by the cup-handle projection near 124-129 if momentum really kicks.
Why I Like It
• Relative strength already outperforming XLV and SPX.
• Medical-device peers SYK and MDT quietly firming — sector tailwind.
• “Overbought” RSI is a feature, not a bug, right before real breakouts.
Case Study: Banking a +7 % Pop on OLLI’s VCP/ Ascending TriangleMomentum in discount retail has been stealth-strong all quarter, so when Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) flashed a textbook volatility-contraction break I pulled the trigger. Below is the full play-by-play, numbers included, plus the process tweaks I’m carrying into the next trade.
1. The Setup
• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115
2. Execution
• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94
3. Results
• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge
4. What Went Right
• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure
5. Improvement Plan
• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets
NASDAQ:OLLI
BNLI - VCP (11W 21/4 3T)IDX:BNLI - VCP
(+)
1. Low risk entry point on a pivot level.
2. Volume dries up.
3. Price has been above the MA 50 for over 10 weeks, with values exceeding 150, 200, and 300.
4. Price is within 25% of its 52-week high.
5. Price is over 30% of its 52-week low.
6. The 200-day MA has been trending upwards for over a month.
7. The RS Rating is above 70 (98).
8. There has been a significant breakout with substantial volume.
9. The price surged up by 150% and paused only for 24%, indicating a strong uptrend.
10. The stock is the leader of its sector.
**EPS Growth:**
a. Quarterly QoQ: +0.96%.
b. Quarterly YoY: -2.27%.
c. TTM YoY: +34.60%.
d. Annual YoY: +38.06%.
(-)
1. The major market is focused on Danantara and Hilirisasi stocks.
TRUK - VCP (118W 66/27 3T)IDX:TRUK - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (84)
9. Breakout with huge volume
(-)
1. There is nothing good with the fundamental
JARR VCP - (144W 80/28 4T)IDX:JARR - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (85)
9. EPS Growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +56.12%
b Quarrerly YoY: +255.56%
b. TTM YoY: +208.21%
c. Annual YoY: +237.44%
10. Breakout with huge volume
(-)
1. Nothing, just perfect :)
CARE - CUP WITH HANDLEPosition Update: May 16, 2025
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. Very clear bases with VCP characteristics.
3. A confirmed Stage 2 uptrend, indicating upward continuation.
4. The stock is outperforming, rising even as the broader market trends lower.
5. Displays strong relative strength against the market and peers.
6. Volume dries up suggests less supply coming to the market.
7. Many stocks start showing traction based on my own stock continuum.
Considerations: While the breakout was not accompanied by a significant volume surge, this development is occurring within the early stages of what appears to be a new bull market cycle. This macro backdrop may provide additional support and follow-through potential.
I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
SAME - VCP (10W 25/5 3T)IDX:SAME - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (80)
9. 9. EPS Growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +852.30%
b. Quarterly YoY: +570.99%
b. TTM YoY: -3.34%
c. Annual YoY: -3.36%
(-)
1. Breakout with huge volume but long wick
Note: I will sell half if hit first Stop Loss, and sell remaining on the last stop loss on first cheat buy
MFIN - VCP (16W 41/18)IDX:MFIN - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (95)
9. EPS Growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +22.24%
b Quarrerly YoY: +185.92%
b. TTM YoY: +22.24%
c. Annual YoY: +23.08%
(-)
1. Breakout with red candle
2. Lack of liquidity
NICL - VCP (192W 82/24)IDX:NICL VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (93)
9. EPS Growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +45.05%
b. TTM YoY: +872.03%
c. Annual YoY: +1,029.03%
(-)
1. Breakout with low volume
ELPI (VCP - 26W 14/4 3T)Position update: March 25, 2025.
Key factors:
1. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
2. A textbook double bottom with VCP characteristics.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock consolidates while the index suffers a terrible decline.
5. High relative strength.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. Strong fundamentals, with consistent year-over-year earnings growth.
Considerations: Despite these strengths, the broader market remains in a bearish phase, down over 20% from its all-time high. Geopolitical risks, persistent net foreign selling, declining investor confidence, and concerns over the government downplaying the stock market's significance continue to contribute to an unstable market environment.
NEST - CUP WITH HANDLEPosition Update: February 6, 2025
Key factors :
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. Very clear bases with VCP characteristics.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock price increased while the market crashing down.
5. High relative strength stock.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. The breakout was confirmed with a huge surge in volume.
Considerations : The current market environment remains challenging, with broader indices showing uncertain and inconsistent behavior. It is very few stocks that setting up decent bases.
I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
CLEO (VCP - 28W 24/7 3T)Position update: December 20, 2024.
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +125% while the index remains nowhere.
5. High relative strength.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. Both breakouts accompanied with a decent volume.
Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, as it fails to sustain a bullish trend and continues making lower lows. However, this is the only stock that is setting up properly in the current market.
This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
NEST (VCP - 7W 8/3 3T)Position Update: December 6, 2024
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. A first proper and buyable base after an IPO.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +96% while the index remains the same spot.
5. High relative strength stock.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. The breakout was confirmed with a notable surge in volume
Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, with broader indices showing uncertain and inconsistent behavior, failing to sustain a bullish trend.
This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
Celebrating the winter season with RadicoNSE:RADICO
Looks stronger to start the winter rally. Alcoholic will be the season.
Gave breakout. Also sustained it. Then came to retest today and bounced back again.
This shows the resilience of the stock.
The trendline resistance breakout will be my entry point.
Risk around 1.3%. Will hold for the whole alcoholic season.
BBCA (VCP - 26W 19/3 3T)IDX:BBCA - VCP
18-09-2024
Reason:
1. Low risk entry point
2. Volume dries up
3. Confirmed Stage 2
4. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
5. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
Flaws:
1. RS rating less than 70
2. 5 biggest marketcap
3. No big volume on breakout
KEC to blast soon...NSE:KEC
- After a past good run breaking out of the rounding bottom pattern the stock has formed a base near key MAs
- Volume has also dried up making it a VCP candidate
- Trendline was broke today on a doji candle and sustained as well
Let's watch for few days and learn.
Buy @ 1035
SL - 990
Target - 1204
BMRI - CUP WITH HANDLEI bought the stock today
September 11, 2024
Reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Long base cup development
3. Formed a classic cup with a nice drifting handle
4. VCP characteristics on the handle
5. One of the leaders in banking sector beside IDX:BRIS
6. We're in a general market bull campaign
7. More stocks start showing traction.
Flaws:
1. Currently outperformed by the market
2. No big volume on the breakout
I like to see if it can holds up and continue moving higher from here.