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GOLD SHORT (PART 2)If you follow my idea about shorting gold, it could be the moment to pull the trigger now. If you do not have a chance to read part 1, check out my profile and look for my older posts. In this part 2 I will show you some more evidence why we want to pull the short on gold. Let's take a look at the chart where I compare Gold chart with USD Index DXY chart. As you can see in the DXY chart, the downtrend line was taken out and USD Index rallied to 96 before turning down after the bad NFP data. However, we can see clearly that it might be just a retest of the downtrend line after the breakout. Last week USD Index DXY has bounced back with a green candle after touching the trend line. This could mean that the rally in USD Index is not over yet, and DXY may turn back up and pass that 96 level to get to a higher level somewhere around 98-100. Maybe this is a technical clue about this coming FOMC's result. I suspect it. Has the technical outlook of the USD Index pointed out that there is a possibility for a surprise from the FED or maybe some really hawkish comments about hiking rate in July when it comes to this FOMC ? Now turn to Gold chart, nothing is special except that price is approaching the green downtrend line and is trading at that important resistance area 1285-1292 as I predicted in part 1. I have not seen any meaningful reversal pattern yet in the daily chart however what I have seen here is the decreasing volume in the weekly chart. This is one of the most important validations of the head and shoulders pattern. Volume usually peaks in left shoulder before decreasing after that. The head, and especially the right shoulder, will have less significant volume than the left shoulder. That is showing on the chart right now. I do not believe the USD Index and Gold can be correlated for a while. In fact, the technical outlook of USD Index may suggest something is happening here. So stay tuned for further update because I will look for reversal patterns when I take my short based on price action at this resistance area 1285-1292.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
2
GBPCHF - Long A Counter TrendGBPCHF has been in a bearish trend dropping from 1.4605 to a low at 1.3863. Looking at the 4hr chart, we can see an opportunity to long a counter trend for this pair. We spot a bullish divergence on the 4hr chart. Plus there is candlestick pattern called morning star at the recent low that could signal a short term bottom. There is a downtrend line that once price breaks out, it will go up to at least 1.42000. So here is the plan: - Buy stop @1.4000 - Take profit @1.4200 After trade is active, I will post a stop loss level. Stay Tuned.
Long
by GOLDTREND-NET
GOLD SHORT (PART 1)If you follow my idea about shorting gold from a monthly reversal perspective, then now it is time to prepare for the setup. But first let me explain why we short gold. You might wanna read this post first. Anyways, take a look at the weekly chart above. As you can see, gold has made a higher high (HH) at 1303 but then followed by a lower low (LL) at 1200. Therefore, unless gold makes another higher high (HH) > 1303, this monster will have to go down. This is very simple technical analysis. Plus MACD already has had a cross over, another good technical indicator. BUT, where we will short ? The left structure shows that 1285-1290 may provide strong resistance. Plus the green downtrend line will also act as major resistance. This is the same downtrend line as in the monthly chart. (See the related post and chart). I am going to look for some kind of reversal pattern when gold reaches that price range 1285-1290. Once I find signals that gold is going to run out of steam in that price range, I will place a sell order with stop loss @1305 and take profit @1180. If gold breaks 1303, it will make a higher high so this trade will be stopped. Gold has not reached 1285-1290 yet, but it will likely do. I know there is a downtrend line @1265 on the daily chart still I think gold is going to make a fake break out of that downtrend line, which would make everyone think it's going to break 1300 and going much higher but then it will suddenly turn down. The FOMC next week can be a game changer. Even if Fed does not raise rate, I think gold is pretty much priced in that idea. Like they always said "buy the rumor, sell the fact". So this is just a plan. I am going to watch the price action and will make a call. So stay tuned for part 2.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDTREND-NET
3
Soybean - A Descending Triangle PatternLe'ts take a look at the Soybean Futures market by examining its 2hr chart. What do we see: - Price has consolidated in a descending triangle. - Support @1130 running flat - Resistance is the downtrend line. - A break out of either way will tell us about its next going direction. A descending triangle is usually a continuation pattern so here the upside is favored as Soybean price is bullish in daily and weekly chart. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Stay Tuned.
S
by GOLDTREND-NET