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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them. If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level. You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here. I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances. Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by benjihyam
VIX – “Liquidity Pool Bounce & Reversal Setup”🟢 VIX – “Liquidity Pool Bounce & Reversal Setup” 📅 Date: April 22, 2025 ⏰ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (12h, 1D, 1h, 30m, 5m) 🔎 Global Context: The Volatility Index (VIX) is reacting to a clear institutional liquidity zone (blue area) across multiple timeframes (12h, 1D, 1h), aligning with a mean reversion move following the explosive rally earlier this month. We’re seeing multiple signs of a potential bullish reversal: Previous lows + demand zone confluence Multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) events on lower timeframes Implied divergence from equities (not shown here, but inferred) Strong rejection from the institutional block (26.345–26.600) 🔍 Technical Analysis & Justification: 📌 Wyckoff & Smart Money Concepts (SMC): On 30m and 1h charts, we observe several CHoCH and BOS events suggesting a transition from redistribution into accumulation. The latest bearish move failed to break the weak low zone (26.345), indicating a liquidity grab trap. 📌 Fibonacci & Moving Averages: Price touched the 78.6%–88.6% retracement from the previous bullish leg. EMAs 8/21 (Orange/Blue) are about to cross bullish on 5m and 30m – a typical trigger for a new impulsive move. EMA200 (White) still hovers above – likely target of the first bullish push. 📌 Volume Profile (implicit): Most of the recent consolidation occurred in the 27.00–27.40 imbalance zone, which now acts as a magnet for price during retracement. 📌 Liquidity & Order Flow Concepts: The 26.345–26.600 range served as a Weak Low and was swept clean – classic liquidity trap behavior. 📈 Trade Parameters: 🟢 Entry (Buy): 26.795 🔒 Stop-Loss (SL): 26.345 (below last liquidity sweep) 🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 27.390 (inefficiency zone + EMA200) 🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 28.150 (1h/30m order block) 🧮 Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): TP1: ~1.6 TP2: ~3.0 📊 Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High-probability setup) 🧠 Strategic Summary: This is a classic reversal play based on liquidity absorption and structural shift (CHoCH), supported by multi-timeframe alignment. A bullish engulfing or strong reaction inside the blue zone confirms the entry bias. If price breaks above 27.00 with volume, momentum may carry it towards 28.00+ swiftly. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always manage your exposure wisely. 💬 What do you think of this setup? Do you see confluence with your strategy? Let’s discuss below! 👇
VANTAGE:VIXLong
by VidaDeTraderPT
VIX drop before the next ZOOM upWhat we experienced last week was absolutely insane in terms of volatility. The beauty of all of this is that it's still a trend and many of these spikes are quite predictable. We all knew about the days the tariffs that were going to hit, right? Why didn't you get into UVIX when I called this out days in advance. It's fine, you will have another shot! Actually, we're in line for many many more spikes which is the great thing. Volatility is your friend! I'll be posting weekly and will be giving away a Free trading alert that has been backtested for the last 3 years over the next week. 2025 will be awesome! Expect VIX to drop a bit more, great to get in on the SVIX and then let's analyze the next trend and take on UVIX on the upside! This is so easy....
TVC:VIXShort
by antonini2002
3
Nifty50 Wkly Anlysis – Strong Reversal, But Volatility AheadThe Indian stock market closed the week on an interesting note. The Nifty 50 index ended at 22,828, just 70 points lower than last week's close, after forming a significant bullish reversal from a low of 21,743 to a high of 22,923. As we mentioned in last week's market outlook, a base formation was underway—and this week's price action confirmed it. With the next week being truncated due to market holidays on Monday and Friday, traders should expect increased volatility and sideways movement. Key Technical Levels: Support: 22,200 – This is 50% of this week's candle; a break may bring bearish momentum. Resistance: 23,400 – A close above this could ignite a rally toward 23,900, 24,100, and possibly 24,414. On the global front, the S&P 500 respected the 4,800 support level, rebounding sharply to close at 5,363. However, underlying market weakness remains, so it's a sell-on-rise situation in U.S. equities. Pro Tip: Indian investors should keep an eye out for quality, fundamentally strong stocks. Any correction in the market may offer excellent long-term buying opportunities.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
The last 4 previous Stockmarket Fear spikes were great buys...for Bitcoin, allowing investors to enhance their long-term holdings. Purchasing risk assets when the #VIX exceeds 50 and over 20% of stocks fall below their 200-day moving average has consistently yielded positive returns, with a success rate of one hundred percent when evaluated one week, one month, and three months later. This particular scenario has only happened 11 times in the history of the S&P 500, and the reading from Monday, April 7th, marked one of those rare instances. #BTFD
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
VIX Hits 27-Year Extreme. Is the Market About to CRASH or SOAR?The Volatility Index (VIX displayed by the blue trend-line) has entered a level that has visited only another 5 times in the last 27 years (since August 1998)! That is what we've called the 'VIX Max Panic Resistance Zone'. As the name suggests that indicates ultimate panic for the stock markets, which was fueled by massive sell-offs, leading to extreme volatility and uncertainty. So the obvious question arises: 'Is this Good or Bad for the market??' The answer is pretty clear if you look at the chart objectively and with a clear perspective. In 4 out of those 5 times, the S&P500 (SPX) bottomed exactly on the month of the VIX Max Panic signal. It was only during the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis that VIX hit the Max Panic Zone in October 2008 but bottomed 5 months late in March 2009. As a result, this is historically a very strong opportunity for a multi-year buy position. If anything, today's VIX situation looks more similar to September 2011 or even the bottom of the previous U.S. - China Trade war in March 2020. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Path to 100 VIXI wrote this note on TVC:VIX a few days ago: www.tradingview.com And am now expanding it a bit more. As someone who was working middle office during the original 2016 Trump Election, Brexit, during the Taper Tantrum and a few other major events - I want to lay out my principles on trading the VIX because spikes like this bring a lot of "first time" VIX traders to something that trades like NOTHING ELSE in the market. This is not a stock in a short squeeze, this is not a generic index. This is like nothing you've ever traded before. In fact, I'd encourage you to take advantage of TradingView's chart options and instead look at the chart of -1*$TVC:VIX. That alone should give you pause. ---------------------------------- So - let's start with the principles of the finance business as laid out in the masterclass which was the movie "Margin Call" . "John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." 1. Be First. You are not first if you are buying above the historic average of VIX 20-21. If you were buying CBOE:UVXY since Jan 2025, you'd be up 175% right now and likely looking to re-balance into your desired long term asset positions. 2. Be Smarter. * Are you taking into consideration the VIXEX Cycle? * Do you know the effect of VIXEX before or after monthly OpEx? * Do you know the current implied volatility curve of options ON the VIX? * Do you know that of the last 4 times the VIX has hit 50, it went on to 80+ 50% of the time after that? * Yes, I've seen the charts going around about forward S&P X year returns but did you know that after the VIX spike to 80 in October 2008, the market (in a decreasing volatility environment) went on a further 35% decline in the next 4-5 months? * Where is the MOVE? What are the bond indexes & bond volatility measures doing? And if you don't yet understand that equities ALWAYS reacts to what is going on in the rates / yield world... you'll find out eventually. I hope. 3. Cheat When things start going wrong, everyone wants an easy solution. That's why its called a relief rally. It feels like relief - the bottom is in, the worst part is over. But that is what the really big players have the biggest opportunity to play with the day to day environment. They know our heuristics. They encourage the formation of cargo cult style investing whether that's HODL in the cryptocurrencies or Bogleheads in the vanguard ETFs. It's all the same and encourages you to forgot first principles thinking about things like: 1. Is this actually a good price or is it just relatively cheap to recent history? 2. Who's going to have to dilute to survive the next period of tighter lending, import costs from tariffs, or whatever the problem of the day is. 3. VIX correlation - volatility is just a description of the markets. Its not a description of the direction. There is periods where volatility is positively correlated to the price movement (like during earnings beats). Know about this and know when it changes. 4. Etc. Some have pointed out that is more appropriately a measure of liquidity in the SPX. When VIX is low, that means there is lots of "friction" to price movement. It means that there is tons of orders on the L2 book keeping the current price from moving in any direction too quickly. When VIX is high, that means there is very low "friction" to price movement. It means there are very few orders on the L2 book and market makers can "cheat" by appearing to create a low volume rally and then rug pull that price movement very quickly (not via spoofing, more just dynamic management of gamma & delta hedging requirements). Additionally - volume itself becomes deceptive. Volume is just indicating that a trade happened. Its not telling you to what degree the spread between the bid and ask has blown out to 1x, 2x, or 5x normal and that trades are executing only at the highest slippage prices in that spread. All of these things are considerations that the market makers can use to make a "buy the dip" situation that works heavily to their advantage. TLDR: "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker" ---------------------------------- So - why / when would VIX go to 100? In 2020, its easy to forget that a culmination of things stopped the crash at -35%. * March 17, 2020 VIXEX wiped out a significant amount of long volatility positions. * March 20, 2020 Opex wiped out a significant proportion of the short term put positions * March 20, 2020 Fed Reserve announced to provide "enhanced" (i.e. unlimited) liquidity to the markets starting Monday March 23, 2020. * April 6th, 2020 Peak of Implied Volatility (point where options "most expensive") - which meant that buyers / sellers started providing more & more liquidity following this point. In 2025, we have yet to see: * Any motion towards intervention from the Fed for liquidity. * Any motion from the significant fundamental investors (we're not close to an attractive P/S or P/E on most stocks for Buffett & Co to start buying) * Any significant motion from companies on indicating strategies about capital raises, layoffs, or other company level liquidity reactions. * Any "reset" of options in either volatility or hedging. Numbers below as of April 9, 2025: - SPY 2.8M Put OI for April 17 - VIX 3.5M Call OI for April 16 Just an example but maybe IF we see those clear and NOT get re-bought for May Opex... we might be ready to call a top here at 50 VIX. Otherwise.... we're just at another stop on the path to 100.
TVC:VIX
by from0_to_1
VIX - Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity?Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity? An analysis of the most significant VIX spikes (1987-2025) and subsequent stock market performance. The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that reflects the level of fear or uncertainty in the market based on expectations of volatility in the S&P 500 Index. The VIX's 118% surge from April 4 to April 7, 2025 was the fifth largest 3-day surge in market history. This surge 🚀 reflects the high level of uncertainty that has developed in the markets. It is very difficult to make informed investment decisions during such periods. But we can rely on historical patterns. After the 20 largest VIX spikes, the S&P 500 Index has consistently delivered exceptional returns: - After 1 year: 16.5% (vs. 12% in normal periods) - After 3 years: 45.9% (vs. 39.5% in normal periods) - After 5 years: 83.0% (vs. 74.4% in normal periods) The difference in returns over the 4 years is 10.2% above average. Over the past 40 years, there has only been one negative return (the 2007 spike before the financial crisis), while most extreme fear events have become outstanding buying opportunities. For example, the August 2011 spike was followed by an impressive 117% return over the next five years. When market panic reaches extreme levels, institutional capital typically steps in against retail sales, setting the stage for stronger long-term growth. History shows that these moments of maximum fear often represent optimal entry points for patient investors. It is essential to realize that historical patterns do not always hold true in the future. Each crisis has unique characteristics and causes that can lead to different outcomes. These statistics provide good mathematical expectations, not guarantees. This has always been the case in the market, and proper handling of math expectations and risk management are the foundations of profitable strategies. Best regards EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:VIX
by EXCAVO
4
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln
$VIX spike to $80-100 incomingI think there's a large spike coming in VIX despite most people turning bullish on the market and bearish on the VIX. Price has maintained elevated levels for the past few months, all of the RSIs are in extreme bullish territory and the move looks very similar to the spike that we got on August 5th. Have no clue what will cause it, whether it's the fed meeting, gov't shutdown or some other outside factor, but the chart is looking like we should see a spike next week up to the $80-103 level. Let's see how it plays out.
TVC:VIXLong
by benjihyam
31
Emergency VIX Analysis... 30+When I woke up this morning, I had to run my son & his friend to school. When I got back home and sat down in front of this computer, my eyes widened and I said "MY GOD!" Someone said capitulation is a feeling. Well honey... this is it. Spiked VIX, huge gaps down, nausea, & nerves shook. On to the analysis. We are wicking from the top as of now. But this journey has been a lesson of what can happen during times of a a heightened VIX (sustained time over 20). Here are a couple of things that I have learned and confirmed with my own eyes since the new year (2025). Monthly wicks should not be ignored. Price needs to regain the top of the wick and hold for further move up. VIX divergence is a thing. General observations... VIX up, mkt down = mkt down as VIX continues up VIX down, mkt up = mkt up as VIX stays down VIX holding above 20 in a range is still bearish. After major spikes, watch for this. Methodical sell off likely to occur. If you have other observations to express... please do. Taking a breath as we navigate these bearish times .
TVC:VIX
by mommymiles
Will the Fear Gauge Flash Red?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's closely watched "fear gauge," is poised for a potential surge due to US President Donald Trump's assertive policy agenda. This article examines the confluence of factors, primarily Trump's planned tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, that are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the financial markets. Historically, the VIX has proven to be a reliable indicator of investor anxiety, spiking during economic and political instability periods. The current climate, marked by a potential trade war and heightened international risks, suggests a strong likelihood of increased market volatility and a corresponding rise in the VIX. President Trump's impending "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to target all countries with reciprocal duties, have already sparked considerable concern among economists and financial institutions. Experts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan predict that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth, and an elevated risk of recession in the US. The sheer scale and breadth of these tariffs, affecting major trading partners and critical industries, create an environment of unpredictability that unsettles investors and compels them to seek protection against potential market downturns, a dynamic that typically drives the VIX upward. Adding to the market's unease are the growing geopolitical fault lines involving the US and both China and Iran. Trade disputes and strategic rivalry with China, coupled with President Trump's confrontational stance and threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program, contribute significantly to global instability. These high-stakes international situations, fraught with the potential for escalation, naturally trigger investor anxiety and a flight to safety, further fueling expectations of increased market volatility as measured by the VIX. In conclusion, the combination of President Trump's aggressive trade policies and the mounting geopolitical risks presents a compelling case for a significant rise in the VIX. Market analysts have already observed this trend, and historical patterns during similar periods of uncertainty reinforce the expectation of heightened volatility. As investors grapple with the potential economic fallout from tariffs and the dangers of international conflicts, the VIX will likely serve as a crucial barometer, reflecting the increasing fear and uncertainty permeating the financial landscape.
CBOE:VIXLong
by UDIS_View
Nasdaq 100 Volatility. US Tech Stocks Remain 'Runoff Smelling'It's gone two months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. only two monts, really? 😸) since comrade Trump entered The White House (again). Everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t. - And now?.. - It's gone. It's absolutely gone..! Leveraged bets and crypto assets turned into Bearish market; all four major US indices (S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000) are negative over the past two months, while Gold OANDA:XAUUSD has doubled in price over the past 5 years (4th time in history ever), and remain the only is premium positioned. This is why we at our 💖 Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to paint this idea for Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN to emphasize (again) that nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind. Broadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment. In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms. Every single stock index do have its own volatility. This story (again) is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours. The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index. Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website. Technical observations The main technical graph indicates that CBOE:VXN Index has recently jumped to current 'above 20' basic points. In nowadays 'above 20' VXN levels indicate on further potentail Bearish progress in US Tech Stocks (Nasdaq 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX ). -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
CBOE:VXN
by PandorraResearch
VIX PARABOLIC means MAJOR DROP, we are on that zone now. After VIX's massive breakout this past few weeks -- rendering the market helpless bringing forth a bleeding season, VIX is bound for a major drop after tapping a strong resistance level. That parabolic move should warrant a weighty trim down ahead in the next few weeks. Expect markets across the board, from equities/crypto/fx majors/gold to bounce big from here on. Ideal opportunity to enter here relative to your preferred asset to trade. Spotted at 27.85 Interim target 20.0 Mid Target 15.0
TVC:VIXShort
by JSAL
1
Nasdaq Bank Index 2025 Edition — Let's Make Sh#t Great Again.President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies, we at @PandorraResearch Team characterize as a term "Tariff Bazooka", have significantly destabilized the Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK , reflecting broader financial sector vulnerabilities and investor anxiety. These tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, a 20% duty on Chinese goods, and proposed reciprocal tariffs, — have triggered cascading multi effects on banking stocks through several paths. Market Volatility and Investor Flight The Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks major U.S. financial institutions, has been disproportionately impacted by tariff-driven uncertainty: Sharp Equity Declines. Since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in February 2025, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dropped over 10% from its December 2024 peak, erasing $1 trillion in tech-sector value. Banking stocks, sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, mirrored this downturn as investors fled equities for safer assets. Risk-Off Sentiment. Bonds rallied as tariffs sparked fears of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation—prompting a 30-basis-point drop in 10-year Treasury yields. This flight to safety squeezed bank profitability, as narrower yield curves reduce net interest margins. Economic Contagion Mechanisms Interest Rate Pressures. Tariffs have raised input costs for businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve now faces a dilemma: tolerate higher inflation or hike rates to curb it. Either scenario harms banks. Elevated rates could suppress loan demand and increase default risks, while delayed rate cuts prolong financial tightening. Trade Retaliation and Sectoral Risks. Canada, Mexico, and China have retaliated with tariffs on $155 billion (Canada) and unspecified billions (China, Mexico) of U.S. goods. For banks, this raises exposure to sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and automotive - industries heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Loan defaults could surge if protected industries fail to offset higher costs. Global Financial System Strain. Trump’s tariffs risk fragmenting the rules-based trading system, undermining the stability that banks depend on for international transactions. The EU and other regions may retaliate by restricting U.S. financial services, directly impacting revenue streams for Wall Street firms. Sector-Specific Impacts Tech-Finance Nexus. Many Nasdaq-listed banks have significant exposure to tech firms, which face disrupted supply chains due to tariffs on Chinese components. This dual pressure — higher operational costs for clients and reduced tech-sector valuations — weakens banks’ asset quality. Consumer Credit Risks. Tariffs on everyday goods (e.g., 25% on Mexican produce, 10% on Canadian energy) could elevate household expenses, straining consumer creditworthiness and increasing delinquency rates for retail banks. Projected Outcomes Economists estimate Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2025, with a stagflationary shock amplifying equity sell-offs. For the Nasdaq Bank Index, this implies prolonged volatility, compressed earnings, and potential credit rating downgrades as macroeconomic headwinds intensify. Technical challenge The main technical graph of Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK indicates on further Bearish trend in development, since major supports (nearly 5-month flat bottom and 52-weeks SMA) have been recently broken. Conclusion In conclusion, Trump’s tariff strategy has acted as a destabilizing force for financial markets, with the Nasdaq Bank Index serving as a barometer for sector-wide risks. By exacerbating economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade fragmentation, these policies have eroded investor confidence and heightened systemic vulnerabilities in the banking sector. -- Best 'sh#t hits the fan' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
NASDAQ:BANK
by PandorraResearch