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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Yield on puts options doesnt compensate riskVix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for the downside premium yield. High vix premium is correlated more often with fear to the downside than fear to the upside. Some of you may remember what happened in 2018 when too many put sellers got caught short puts and volatility repriced. they called that one "Volmageddon". volmageddon article here regarding xiv etn blow up: www.ft.com Just be aware that puts selling isnt free money, and sometimes the juice isnt worth the squeeze. Know what you own and be willing to own or get paid to own it at your strikes.
SP:SPX
by ValuePig
1
Here's my line. When pullback bottom is confirmed, re-enter.Traders, It's been a few weeks since I have done a video update. Hopefully, you all have been following my non-video posts too. I have been making regular posts in attempts to keep you all up to speed on the latest market price action. In this video, I will show you the line that caused me to sell. This does not mean I have now gone bearish on the market. On the contrary, I am still overall bullish longer term. However, the market is definitely experiencing a bit of a pullback here due to some new inflation data causing more uncertainty. Once this pullback has confirmed a bottom, I will once again look to re-enter my longs. I will show you some of the levels I am targeting on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple near the end of the video. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
6
VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possibleSince our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
13
Bitcoin's Bull Flags have completed to resistanceTraders, If you follow me elsewhere, you already know that I have unloaded the majority of my trades today. I will let you know more specifically what I am seeing in Friday's weekly update. But for now, in short, I want to point out that Bitcoin has been following all the technical indicators and rules like a champ. There is no reason for me to doubt that it will not continue to do so now. In that regards, I must point out that after breaking out of its bullish triangle and bull flag on the daily RSI as expected, Bitcoin has met its target, the 50 day ma which intersects with a major level making this a very strong resistance area of confluence. Will we drop significantly from here? Maybe. Maybe not? There remains a lot of good support on the underside of current price of which includes that 200 day ma being right in line with the RED ascending channel. It would take a significant bear movement to break these supports, but if we did, there are still two very significant descending TLs which will also become support. The probability remains a price above 27,000 but that is only if you focus on this chart. Zooming out there are a few other charts I have been focusing on strongly, the VIX and the SPY. The VIX shows a spike in fear which has detached price from previously being range bound. Along with the VIX being up the dollar has been up and this usually means that stocks will be down. Looking then at the SPY which tracks the S&P500 market here in the U.S. you can see that the SPY has indeed dropped back down into its ascending triangle (bearish) and channel up (long term bearish) which is leading us to our blow-off top. The SPY could drop to the bottom of that channel before continuing its one last final ascent into irrational market pricing and trajectory. What comes after this does not look great for our macro-economy either here in the U.S. or globally. But unless something hugely positive occurs geopolitically and globally (aliens drop lambos, yachts, and gold chains from their UFOs or something like it), we will be in trouble by mid-2024. For the moment however, we are still doing the blow-off top thing in U.S. stocks, it's just that it's looking like there might be a bit of a pullback for a few days/weeks before this continuation occurs. This may pull Bitcoin down with it a bit, though, I don't know that Bitcoin will descend as rapidly as the SPY and other indexes this time around. Stay tuned, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
Until the VIX breaks this level, it remains range-boundA quick look at our VIX chart shows us that we are range-bound since June. Exactly, as I expected and have stated numerous times in past posts. But now, with the U.S. credit rating downgrade, fear has spiked. Will we break this range and move up? We could, yes. But to do so, we need the VIX to move above that 15.94 level with confirmation. As of today, the VIX can still be technically classified as range-bound at all time 2-year lows. Of course, when the VIX remains low, the market will remain relatively positive. This is bullish. Stay tuned for further updates here. Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT closesHow #indices closed last week. TVC:DJI After a BEARISH ENGULFING it then closed Friday with a doji = battle for the bulls and bears which is unresolved NASDAQ:NDX Fighting back but it is still showing Negative RSI Divergence. SP:SPX Suffering from Negative Divergence. We''ll how #SPX trades over the next few days, weeks. AMEX:RSP (Equal weight) was weaker. This means that the usual big boys pulled more weight. TVC:RUT needs big move soon, lower highs. Lots of earnings this week! Have a great trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Indices roundup from post a lil over week agoiBarely more than a week we stated that RISK in #equities was INCREASING. We also gave our thoughts on some #indices . Let's see what has happened since that post: NASDAQ:NDX has cooled off - check TVC:DJI pumped since then - check Likely topping out short term here though. TVC:VIX has been trading sideways - check Does seem like it's beginning to gain momentum. TVC:RUT & AMEX:RSP (Equal weight #SPX) are both higher - check Shows that the big boys aren't the only ones running. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
VIX Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers , VIX looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The instrument tests an important psychological level 13.48 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 14.01 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:VIXLong
by AnabelSignals
3
VIX Will Go Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for VIX. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 13.76. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 14.42 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:VIXLong
by SignalProvider
9
Sniper Trading System EXPLAINEDIf you do not have a system that's calibrated to the code that's generated on the 1 sec time frame you will always find yourself guessing and never really KNOWING. My System is calibrated down to the 1 second time frame where the money aka code is generated. What I discovered is: if you can find the KEY to the Daily bias you have a considerable EDGE in the market. I found that key and it is found in the 12AM Candle. This candle lets a Sniper Know where the raid will go before the main move aka Trend of the day. In this trade on NAS 100 ( my system works on everything) the 12 AM told me that the raid would be Bullish after 1AM. So we anticipate the short during one of our Clearing House Times - when the algorithm seeks Liquidity aka Raids your Stops. Today we got the drop at 8:30am EST. 1st TP SMACKED. 2nd TP KISSED as of now and headed to target. The VIX is due for a rebound so NAS100 may continue to fall this week.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Master-Jedi-Trader
Guide to VVIX/VIX Ratio Regimes and Corresponding Investment StrMarket volatility and its expected future changes, as indicated by the VVIX/VIX ratio, can greatly impact investment decision-making. The following guide provides insights into different regimes of this ratio, their implications on market conditions, potential sector rotations, and additional investment strategies that investors might consider. High Ratio (High VVIX, Low VIX): In this regime, apparent calmness belies underlying uncertainty about future volatility. This suggests a potential underestimation of future risks. Sector Rotation: A strategic shift towards defensive sectors—Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare—can help. These sectors are often resilient during uncertain times due to consistent demand for their services and products. Options Strategies: Look at strategies like long straddles or long strangles. These profit when the underlying security experiences a significant price move, regardless of the direction. Risk Parity: Adjust your portfolio by distributing risk evenly across different asset classes rather than allocating based on expected returns. Bond Laddering: This involves buying bonds that mature at different times. It provides regular income and reduces the risk of being locked into a low-interest-rate environment. Low Ratio (Low VVIX, High VIX): In this regime, high current market volatility is expected to continue, signaling turbulent times ahead. Sector Rotation: Defensive sectors, including Utilities and Consumer Staples, provide stability during turbulent times. For those with high risk tolerance and a long-term perspective, cyclical sectors like Technology, Consumer Discretionary, or Industrials could present buying opportunities. Volatility Trading: Consider securities that are designed to track volatility, such as VIX futures, options, or volatility-focused ETFs and ETNs. Dollar-Cost Averaging: This strategy involves investing a fixed dollar amount in a particular investment on a regular schedule, regardless of the asset's price. Over time, this can result in a lower average cost per share. Distressed Assets: Market turbulence often results in some assets being undervalued or "distressed." Savvy investors may find bargains in this space. Stable or Mid-Range Ratio: A moderate level of expected market volatility signals a stable market environment. Sector Rotation: Investors might consider cyclical sectors—Technology, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary—that are likely to benefit from economic growth. Buy and Hold: This strategy involves buying stocks or other assets and holding them for a long period. It is based on the belief that in the long term, financial markets provide a good rate of return despite periods of volatility. Growth Investing: This strategy involves investing in companies expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to other companies. Momentum Trading: This involves buying securities trending up and selling those trending down. Stability can enhance the predictability of these trends. Understanding the nuances of the VVIX/VIX ratio and its implications on market conditions can help investors align their strategies with market volatility regimes. Whether rotating sectors or applying different investment strategies, it's important to remember that all strategies carry risk and must align with individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and market outlooks. As always, it's important to consider a variety of market indicators and economic factors before making investment decisions. This guide serves as a stepping stone towards informed investment decision-making during different market volatility regimes.
VEducation
by kesor6
3
CPI, DXY, VIX Down. Stocks Up! Blowoff Top Underway!Traders, The big news this week was that inflation is now just under 3 percent! This is hugely bullish as any further certainty as to what actions the FED will take in the future only aids in investing confidence. Along with this news, we will cover the dollar decline, VIX 2-year low levels, and stocks beginning to break out even further, confirming my long-held blowoff top theory. 00:00 - CPI, FED rates, Unemployment Rate, DXY, VIX 10:00 - Bitcoin and Crypto
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
2