SeePI, 9 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities changed little on Monday trade. It is probably digesting the price reactions from last week. It is also probably awaiting to see the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The data is released pre-market 1hr before US open so we may see some positioning ahead of the inflation number during Tuesday trade.
➤ To be honest I'm not expecting too much action on Wednesday either. This is because prices are trading within a range and I don't think the ranging activity is done. Furthermore, there is a distinct lack of movement in TLT, the 20yr US bond ETF. This is either because no one knows what's going on with interest rates over the long-term i.e. buyers/sellers are equally opposing each other or they think interest rates will stay at current levels for the foreseeable future. The comfounding economic data certaintly points to the latter.
➤ I'm yet to get a trade signal. We are confined to the sidelines until then. I'm hoping the CPI numbers will provide us with a trade opportunity.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is patience.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
🟩 VIX is continuing to improveVIX DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY 📉
The VIX has experienced a dramatic decrease, which is crucial to observe as we shift from a bearish to a more favorable market. Similar to what occurred in December and at the start of the year, the 28 level serves as a warning signal, particularly after a substantial market movement. This indicates that the market may be overheating, and we should be on the lookout for a potential bear market. Throughout the recent bearish phase, the VIX remained elevated above the 28 level.
SEEKING LOWER LEVELS 🎯
Ideally, we'd like to see the VIX return to lower levels. While occasional upticks are expected, it's important that they remain within the lower historical ranges. Lower volatility benefits the indices, but it's equally important for individual stocks to exhibit reduced volatility as wel
Dec VIX closing is very, very important!Monthly line charts are so simplistic; yet so important to analyze.
If you've read my previous DOW posts you know we are closely following the 2000-2002 bear market cycle vs. any other bear market and this chart further confirms my thoughts.
Notice how the VIX today (2017 to present) vs. the VIX 1994-2000 timeframe is diverging with the S&P. Both are making higher highs and higher lows until something breaks. In the 2000-2002 case we had the dot com bust (Rate of Change in very high risk/internet stocks plummeted) while today we have the Bond bust (Rate of Change within the bond market has plummeted). Towards the end of the VIX/S&P divergence (in the 2000-2002 case) the VIX ended up remaining "in trend" while the S&P lost about 46% over a 2 year period (see below chart). The VIX remaining "in-trend" for such a long period of time was a warning that something was going to break at some point and the indexes eventually lost a fair amount of value over a 2 year period.
In sum...my thoughts:
If we close Dec VIX below the blue dotted; Oct low will hold
If we close Dec VIX above the blue dotted line; Oct low will NOT hold.
Neither Here Nor There, 5 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Another day down, you'd start to think it's becoming a trend. It may be the start but as for now I've downgraded the Short-Term equity trend to Neutral - meaning it's trendless, neither here nor there. The reason for the trendless tag is that we have experienced a higher high and lower low in recent days - a mix of opposing trend definitions.
➤ Note the price gaps all over the place as indicated by the blue arrows. Today's price gap in the SPY warns of that "acceleration" top formation I described in yesterday's post.
➤ Interestingly, both my Primary and Secondary strategy gave exit signals and this has been executed. I currently hold no positions. It is reflective of the opposing forces. This was a nice hedge that helped to protect capital and delivered on the "diversifying" benefits of incorporating both strategies.
➤ Still, we suffered a loss on this hunt and we go hungry. The price action is developing into a familiar structure. If it plays out our way, I think we won't go hungry for long.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is a battle between feast and famine.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Topping Formations, 4 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities continued to sell-off but not aggressively. It wasn't the kind of impact we have had on previous interest rate decision days. That being said, futures are down further in Asian trade.
➤ Let's have a look at the last couple of topping formations of the SPY at previous peaks in Dec 2022 and Feb 2023. If we have just witnessed another peak we might be able to gain some insight on how this may play out in the immediate future.
➤ We saw two types of topping formations. Dec 2022 was a double-top with a failed upthrust at the second peak. Feb 2023 was a common topping process where there was a failed re-test of the high.
➤ The current "assumed" peak could be a replay of either scenarios as described. It can also be a third process where price continues to fall without any attempt to re-test the high. The price action signals a "rush for the doors". This is less common. It would be similar to the Aug 2022 peak. What we should expect to see is price gapping lower to reflect an acceleration downward.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Have we peaked? May the 4th be with You.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
$VIX back into Triangle Pattern, $SPX toppishTVC:VIX gaining some momentum on the daily but cannot deny the damage that was done to it last month
#VIX is a tad harder to chart but it does look like it wants to bottom here
Opening AMEX:VIXM put selling strategy = bull
Keeping tight stops @ support levels
4666good eve'
decided to share my full local count of this b wave.
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i'm basically looking at it as a double zig-zag from the lows.
a double zig-zag is a 3-three-wave move (labeled 3-3-3).
it channels beautifully, and it aligns with my general outlook over the next 360 days.
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once this b wave is completed,
the market should enter into a c wave,
which i also theorize will see an extension.
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🌙
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Bring Back the Vol, 3 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Sharp drop in equities accompanied by a spike in the VIX. It seems the market didn't like the taste of abnormal low vol. It wanted things to get back to "normal". As a Trader, "normal" is good although sometimes we end up on the wrong side like today. Bring back the Volatility.
➤ The Strategy did as it should by halving the position size yesterday in anticipation that some level of downside may occur. I cut my long position further today upon another exit signal. My secondary strategy signaled a short trade. Overall I have a small long position going into US Interest Rate Decision/FOMC day.
➤ Before you ask, I have no view on the outcome of the interest rate decision and what may or may not happen. I don't spend much time on those fundamental aspects of the market. There are plenty of talking heads that will offer their opinion but only listen to those people who actually have a wager on the outcome. I wouldn't trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Looking to recoup some losses
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
GOLD VS VIX -3/5/2023-• Gold is highly benefitting from the fear and uncertainty in the market which is likely to persist
• Markets are again assuming a recession coming
• Banking sector latest dilemma is adding to the fear sentiment
• Rising interest rates, hard landing caused by FED continuous tightening policy along with signs of stagflation all add to the bullish price action seen in the commodities markets
• Added the VIX (volatility/fear index) below Gold chart to try and visualize any correlation between them
• Interesting to see that peaks in VIX index were usually accompanied by peaks and rallies with the Gold
• As we are approaching the all time high at 2070 with price currently just above 2000 I would like to add my own interpretation on that
• When Gold traded at 2070, VIX value was around 33
• We are only just above 2000 and the VIX is way lower than the previous higher level
• If current factors and sentiment persist in the market, we might see the VIX trading back towards higher levels, sending the Gold way higher than 2070
• Note that VIX is up almost 11% in a single day at the time of writing
Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅
Here to answer all your questions,
Good luck
Reversal Time? 2 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ An attempt to break above the Feb high fell flat. Literally. Equities ended where it started, slighty down from Friday close. It isn't a good look.
➤ Over the last few days, there has been a deceleration in the up move evidenced by the smaller candle sizes or price bars. It's like a car decelerating towards a known barrier ahead. It isn't confident that it can crash through the barrier or maybe it doesn't want to at all.
➤ I'm not here to question the car or in our case the market why or why not. I am here to best respond to what I can see from a short-term technical trading perspective. I therefore have cut my long position back to a moderate size. The chances for a price reversal is much higher and managing that risk is essential. There is still enough risk on the table to make good profits if the car decides to crash through but the car may indeed decide to go in reverse.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Perhaps this prey is too big to take down.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
$SPX has been on FIRE, like most indices, sans $RUTSP:SPX hit the level called
NOW WHAT?!
Intraday (NOT PICTURED HERE), look @ RSI, we see 15 - 30 Min weakening
1HR looks fine
4HR not oversold but showing negative divergence
AGAIN, as we've been stating for some time, HARD CALL
TVC:VIX gave up DAYS ago!
This is the 2nd Week it's BREAKING the SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE (BEAR FOR #VIX!)
🔥 Another Market Crash Coming? VIX Says YES 🚨The VIX is the volatility index of the SP500. Generally, it trends up during bearish times and trends down during bullish ones.
In the past, the VIX has always spiked up during a market bottom. Looking at the chart, we can see that the VIX has not spiked up yet and formed a bottom like it has done in the past.
We only have ~30 years of VIX data, but it has still signaled the bottom of every bear market (-20% decline or more) during that time.
Assuming that the VIX is correct, there's still a chance that the market hasn't bottomed yet and that the "real" crash is yet to come.
What do you think? Is the bottom in? Crash incoming? Share your thoughts🙏
$SPY - Pivotal Week ⚠️ AMEX:SPY experienced a significant sell-off at the beginning of the past week, followed by a strong bounce near YTD highs. Undeniably, technicals appear bullish due to the strong bounce, particularly with TVC:VIX volatility subdued. However, given the upcoming #FOMC and NASDAQ:AAPL ER, I'm watching for volatility to resist further suppression.
This pivotal week will help determine the future price direction. The momentum we saw at the end of the week does not imply a bullish cycle, and it may continue to shake out bears as it crosses the key level around 415.
A potential reversal could occur at the YTD high (near 417), especially with FOMC around the corner. This scenario isn't guaranteed, but I would caution on taking long positions at these levels. Watching for higher price discovery to offer a better risk-to-reward setup to ride into sell strength.
Banish the Bears 4ever (and a summary of other asset classes)🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
1 May 2023
➤ Bullish sentiment drove prices higher once more on the last day of April trade. The momentum is building to take out the Feb high at 418.31 on the SPY. This level is important if looking at the monthly chart. A monthly close above this level will in my opinion bring about the beginnings of a longer term bull market. Will this occur in May?
➤ In the very short-term I am positioned long with maximum position size. Hopefully the bullish momentum will continue and kick start the new month on the right foot.
➤ Let's have a quick overview of other assets:
⦿ USD (daily): Winding sideways. I expect further weakening, 1.13 being the target (EURUSD).
⦿ TLT (weekly): Still range bound. I favour the long-term downtrend meaning higher interest rates. Interest rate decision this week may see prices breakout up. Downtrend remains in place unless price moves above 114. At that level, we indeed may see a change in trend.
⦿ GOLD (daily): Retracing, looks poised to take out the all time high at 2070
⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Still unable to break above the 2.30 long term resistance zone. It doesn't look strong enough to breach the resistance. Further downside expected.
⦿ OIL (3-day): Bullish move may have peaked. If true, I expect a re-test of the low at a minimum at HKEX:64 (WTI). $64/65 is a multi-year support level. A break below would see much lower prices.
⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing, probing the long-term resistance level at HKEX:30 ,000/31,000. Price can drop further (pick your level) but the new bull trend is firmly in place.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt is on.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
What's going on $VIX?What in the world is going with TVC:VIX ?
Was short term bearish, was right (not posted here, sorry, see our profile)
However, we made case for longer term scenario
NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL & others have PE 30+, crazy
BUT #StockMarket = IRRATIONAL
SP:SPX really looks like top retest is in play
May is 4th best month over last 20 years
Aprils IS the best month coming in @ 2.5%, & looking to close there again. Over 80% win in last 20 years!
#stocks
Banish the Bears, 28 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ An aggressive pump higher today in equities, undoing all the Bear's work over the previous days. The Bears are banished...or are they?
➤ It does look like one-way traffic at the moment. The Bulls have control. The only issue I have so far is their inability to close a month beyond the Feb 2023 high. This monthly high close (and there's just one trading day left this month) would in my opinion seal the deal for the long-term Bullish scenario.
➤ If this doesn't happen in April we will have to wait for May...but May is known as the month of "sell and go away". If Bears can hold out for another month, the scales may tip in their favour.
➤ I took profit on my long positions. Unfortunately, my mistake as detailed yesterday diminished what would have been a good pay-day. I hold a small long position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The Hunt was part failure part success. I'm still very hungry. I'm sure my Cubs are too.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Celebrating 50 Years of Equity Options TradingAmid serious pushback, Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) went live on 26th April 1973. Options are now a standard tool for portfolio risk management. Not so, back then. They were seen as gambling instruments for reckless speculators.
Shortly after CBOE launch, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton provided a mathematical model for computing options prices.
This Nobel Prize winning model allowed options to be priced theoretically for the first time. It was a key driver in making options markets sophisticated, more efficient and much larger.
The Black Scholes Merton model ("BSM") forms the fundamental basis of options pricing. It allows traders to compute a theoretical price to options based on the underlying asset’s expected volatility.
Expected volatility is referred to as implied volatility (IV). Why implied? Because it is the volatility implied from an options price given other parameters from the BSM model.
COMPREHENDING BSM & BLACK76
Options have existed since the 17th Century. Option were limited to speculation and gambling in the absence of a sound and suitable pricing model such as BSM.
BSM offers a mathematically sound framework to compute theoretical price of European options using five inputs:
1. Underlying Asset Price
2. Implied Volatility (IV) of the Underlying Asset
3. Interest rates
4. Exercise (Strike) Price of the option
5. Time to expiry
A variant of the BSM for pricing options on futures, bond options, and swaptions is the Black Model (also known as Black76) which forms the basis of pricing options on commodity futures.
BSM is far from perfect. For starters, it makes unrealistic assumptions. Such as that stock prices follow a log-normal distribution and are continuous. That future volatility is known and remains constant. BSM assumes no transaction costs or taxes, no dividends from the stocks, and a constant risk-free rate.
Even though these assumptions are impractical, the BSM provides a useful approximation. In fact, the model is so commonly used that options prices are often quoted as IV. On the assumption that given IV, options price can be computed using BSM.
Actual options prices vary from theoretical ones based on supply-demand dynamics and with reality being different from the assumptions baked into BSM.
For instance, actual prices for the same expiry and at different strike prices have been observed to have different IV. Primarily given a higher likelihood of a downside plunge relative to upside rally. This difference in IVs across different strikes is referred to as volatility skew.
OPTIONS IN SUMMARY
Options involve two parties whereby one party acquires a right to buy or sell a pre-agreed fixed quantity of a stock/commodity at a pre-agreed price (the strike or the exercise price) at or before a pre-agreed future date (Expiry Date).
One party acquires the right (Option Buyer or Option Holder) and the other party takes on the obligation (Option Seller).
In consideration for granting the right, the Option Seller collects a premium (Option Price) from the Option Buyer.
To ensure that the Seller keeps up their promise to trade, such Sellers are required to post margins with the Clearing House.
Once buyers pay premium upfront, they are not required to post any additional margins with the Clearing House.
Where the Option Holder secures a right to buy, it is known as a Call Option. However, if the Option Holder acquires the right to sell, such an option is referred to as Put Option.
Where the Option Holder can exercise their right at or before any time before expiry, such Options are referred to as American Options.
Options that can be exercised only at expiry are referred to as European Options. While exercising is permitted at expiry, these European options positions can be closed out before expiry by selling out a long position or by buying back a short position.
Premiums for European options are typically lower than premiums compared to American options.
COMPREHENDING WALLSTREET’S FEAR GUAGE, FADING VIX, AND VIX1D
The CBOE Volatility Index (famously referred to as VIX and is also knows as fear gauge) is a real time index measuring the implied volatility of the S&P 500 for the next 30 days based on SPX Index options prices for options expiring in 23 to 37 days.
There are a range of financial products based on the VIX index allowing investors to hedge volatility risk in their portfolios.
In recent months, VIX has been fading into insignificance. Despite huge price moves in the S&P 500, VIX has remained staid. Why such inertia? Primarily because options markets have started to shift towards shorter expiries. Zero-Days-To-Expiry (0DTE) options now account for more than 40% of overall S&P options market volumes.
These very short-dated options allow traders to express views around specific events such as monetary policy meetings and economic releases. Their popularity has increased dramatically over the past few years, with volumes today nearly 4x that of 2020.
To account for this shift in market behaviour, the CBOE has launched the VIX1D i.e., the One-Day VIX. This index tracks the expected volatility over the upcoming day as determined by zero-day options prices.
More on Options Greeks and Risk Management using Options in a future paper.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Tricks for Reading the VIXUnderstanding VIX Generally
VIX measures the pricing of at-the-money options on the S&P 500 SP:SPX FOREXCOM:SPXUSD where such options have about 30 days until expiration. Higher VIX readings mean that demand for at-the-money options on SPX has risen through hedging or bearish positioning (usually both)—meaning that fear and uncertainty has arisen along with expectations of greater price movement (price declines) and volatility.
In essence VIX tends to jump during major sell-offs in the S&P 500 and other global equity indices, and it also tends to fall back during long, gradual rallies. Its historic average is about 20. The average of all VIX closing numbers is about 19.4.
Further, a VIX reading at 27–28 is at the upper end of one standard deviation from its mean. At the height of the 2008 recession, VIX peaked around 89.5 (intraday) and closed just above 80 several times. In March 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, it surged to about 82.
During the dot-com market from 1997-2000, the VIX held above its historical average (above 20) even though equity markets continued to drive higher for years. This was not a typical period for the relationship between VIX and markets with above average VIX readings coinciding with higher S&P 500 returns (33.1% in 1997, 28.3% in 1998, 20.9% in 1999).
Understanding VIX Readings
In General, High VIX Readings Help Spot Trading Lows or Lasting Market Bottoms
VIX helps spot market bottoms. Some market experts assert that VIX is a measure of stress in the system, a measure of worry and fear as defined by various formulas derived from SPX puts and calls. Readings above 40 on the VIX tend to signal pure panic and indicate either an interim low (e.g., a temporary trading low followed by a bear rally) or a final bottom for a bear market or correction.
The VIX measures implied volatility from a basket of at-the-money front-month SPX options. Ordinarily, VIX and SPX are supposed to head in opposite directions , meaning VIX climbs (or remains elevated) as SPX falls, and VIX falls (or remains low) as SPX rises. At least some other global indices that correlate to some extent with SPX would typically head in the same direction as SPX, but since VIX is derived from SPX derivatives (options), SPX will be discussed primarily.
So the ordinary relationship between VIX and SPX is inverse as shown in the example on the main chart above for the 2000-2002 bear market. Lower SPX lows often coincide with even higher VIX highs.
In the chart below, note how the VIX and SPX held to their usual inverse relationship during the 1998 SPX correction, which involving a decline of about -22% from the pre-correction high. As the market fell, the VIX continued to rise. Each SPX interim low was marked by a higher VIX high. Importantly, each VIX high was a "lower high" relative to the final VIX high that coincided with the final SPX low on October 8, 1998.
Supplementary Chart 1: SPX 1998 Correction Shows Usual Relationship between VIX and SPX
Divergences from the Usual Inverse Relationship between VIX and SPX May Distinguish Lasting Market Bottoms from Temporary Trading Lows
But divergences from the usual inverse relationship between VIX and SPX can sometimes appear, and they may signal a lasting market bottom as distinguished from a temporary trading low . In particular, VIX will start to diverge from the usual pattern of higher VIX highs that coincide with lower VIX lows, meaning that SPX will make a new low but VIX will make a lower high rather than a new and higher high. This can be a helpful trick to understanding how VIX behaves at some major bear market bottoms and corrections.
The primary chart above shows an excellent example from the 2000-2002 bear market. Consider the penultimate interim SPX low in July 2002. The highest VIX close of the entire bear market printed at 48.46 the day before this major interim low on July 24, 2002. (On the actual day of this interim low, VIX fell slightly to close at 39.86).
Corrections also sometimes show this divergence from the usual SPX-VIX relationship. The chart below shows the 1990 correction in SPX where this equity market fell about -20%. Note the divergence between the major interim low in August 1990 and the final correction low in September 1990.
Supplementary Chart 2: SPX 1990 Correction Shows Divergence from the Usual Inverse Relationship between VIX and SPX
Although not shown in an additional chart, the bear market of 2008-2009 following the Great Financial Crisis contains another useful case study. During this bear market, the VIX peaked with closing highs above 80 in October 2008 and an intraday high of 89.53 on October 24, 2008. These were the highest VIX readings of the entire bear market occurring months before the final bear-market low. A VIX divergence appeared at the final bear-market low—VIX made a lower high of 49.33 and an intraday high of 51.90 on March 6, 2009. This is similar to the VIX divergence that was seen in the final stages of the 2000-2002 bear market (shown in the chart above).
Broader Application of VIX-SPX Divergences
This phenomenon of VIX and SPX diverging from their usual inverse relationship also may be stated more broadly as follows: when the VIX moves in tandem with the S&P 500, it’s a usually a sign that the trend may reverse . This occurs whenever VIX and SPX fall together or whenever they rise together.
When the VIX and the S&P are both going down in tandem, this could present a good long-term buy signal especially when combined with other technical or fundamental evidence of a bottom.
Furthermore this divergence from the usual inverse relationship can appear at market peaks as well. For example, when the market rallies higher, but the VIX remains elevated (it rises, does not decline significantly, and holds support), this indicates the rally could soon fail. A rally with elevated VIX shows persistently higher implied volatility / fear—increased demand for 30-day options based on expected volatility / demand for option hedges as downside insurance. This could be a sign the rally is fleeting.
I Made A Boo Boo, 27 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ At an index level, equities couldn't hang on to early gains and retreated for another day. The price actually closed a minor gap from the previous uptrend as shown by the blue arrows. Note that there is a minor gap higher and a large gap lower from current levels in the SPY. The question is which one will get filled first? Comment below on what you think.
➤ This daily post is generally used to provide observations about the market and price action in pariticular but it also serves as a trading journal for myself. Today marks the first Trading Mistake I've made this year.
➤ I wrongly sized the current trade - double the size it should have been. That is why I cut my positions in half when this was realised. Of course, the Trading Gods have a habit of punishing mistakes to its maximum effect by taking that partial loss at the lows of the day! Unfortunately, I'm not alone with Copiers suffering the same fate. Sorry.
➤ Trading mistakes are part of the game. I accept that. The real issue here is that I didn't recognise the error straight away. I have now put in place a procedure to mitigate this from occurring again.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 The consolation is that it was a surface scratch and not a deep wound.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
VXX points to volatility returning quick and fastWatching the VXX, the VIX ETN, can be quite interesting. It has its own idiosyncrasies, but over the VIX index, this ETN has volume data and charts better than the index on patterns, break outs and break downs.
It appears that there has been a bullish divergence of the technical indicators particularly the VolDiv, and less so on the MACD. Nonetheless, it is clearly observed. Recently, a breakdown out of a range support appeared to fake out the market, particularly when yesterday's candle is rather full, bullish an broke back into the range.
Furthermore, the TD Buy Setup ended and overextended... just waiting for that TD Flip.
Taken together, the short of this (pun not intended) is that volatility is due to return with a vengeance at least to the upper end of the range for a start.
Heads up!
Pretty Ugly, 26 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ From sitting pretty to pretty ugly. Today's price action has upended the bullish thesis that I was building. However, one ugly day doesn't mean things will now completely reverse. We need two days...OK, I'm just kidding. But on a serious note, the balance of power between the Bulls and Bears have seriously swung towards the Bears.
➤ In after-hours, GOOGL and MSFT stock are being heavily supported post earnings release. Let's see if this can hold up on Wednesday in particular at a broader market/index level. Note that AMZN and META also release earnings this week Wed/Thu (but after market close).
➤ Clearly, the Regional Bank crisis is on-going with FRC in the spotlight. This may re-spark conditions that was experienced during the SVB phase of the crisis.
➤ I got a very short-term buy signal and that was executed dutifully. I am now moderately long and looking for a quick bounce.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pounced. A successful or failed hunt? We will know soon.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN