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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
Traded UVIX This Morning, Just After Open. Position Closed NowIs CBOE:UVIX right for you? Would you also like to earn when the market is down? If so check it out, I traded $UIVX right after the open and have already closed the position. I usually don't day trade, but on a down day like today I couldn't resist trying the downside with Ultra Short Futures Options. These instruments aren't for everyone, & most people who own them lose money over time, so please be careful and only risk as much as you can afford to lose.
CBOE:UVIX
by CryptoQue
VIX ready to explode higherLook at the last 2 Monthly candles. They are bullish candles and short term volatility would explode higher in Feb 2025. All the best. Marketpanda Disclaimer: The information provided is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. None of the content shared should be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Prior to making any financial or investment decisions, it is strongly recommended that you consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who is familiar with your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Any reliance you place on the information presented is strictly at your own risk, and we are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities resulting from your investment or trading activities.
CBOE:VXXLong
by marketpanda123
VIX | Stock Market Correction IncomingVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge. The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility.
CAPITALCOM:VIXLong
by DivergenceSeeker
My Current Market Sentiment Through March 2025 Hello Trader Fam, In this video I am covering my current market sentiment through March or even April of this year. Along with this, we'll take a closer look at the dollar, the vix, the spy, NVIDIA, U.S. Oil, and Crypto - (Bitcoin, Dominance, Solana, Solana memecoins, AI genned memecoins, etc.). We'll talk a bit about my indicator and what it is showing us and why it has me leaning bullish but why I am cautious with Bitcoin in the lead. ✌️Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? 📈📉 Stock Market Forecast & Analysis🧵 In this thread, we’re breaking it down for you: -TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX -Economic Data -Insights & Predictions Let's dive in friends! Not financial advice NASDAQ:QQQ Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks. Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Held volume shelf -Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH) -Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580 -Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections. Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's! TVC:VIX First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024. But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower. Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday. AMEX:SPY Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. -Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT! Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wicked back above smoothing line -Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY! AMEX:IWM As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes. Weekly Chart Analysis: -At the bottom of an uptrend channel -Sitting on a massive volume shelf -At a massive S/R area -At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY. ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD. The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW! What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels. Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December. We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues. Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL! Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it! ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RonnieV29
4
What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading. As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by stewdamus
2
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening, --- consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom. --- ~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish. ~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud. ~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction . ~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear. ~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year. ~us10y, topped out. ~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets. ~fear is at all time high. ~retail short positions are at all time high. ~and i'm buying everything. --- the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension. --- ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here. ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully. ✌
TVC:NDQLong
by notoriousbids
6