VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Missed It By That Much! 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Yes, that's exactly what happened with my long position. A large move higher in equities the day after I got out (for a loss). That basically sums up why Trading can sometimes be so frustrating. These days I just take a deep breath and move on. My younger-self would have tore my hair out!
➤ So what does this bullish move mean? Very little in my opinion. It's just another choppy day. We need to see if the S&P500 can break above 4000 or it goes back below 3900. A move in either direction should determine the primary trend for the next week(s).
➤ I currently hold no position.
➤ Conclusion: Standing by to see which direction the market favours.
$VIX @ lower end of range, hard to call if it'll break$VIX is @ lower part of range
Daily :
Broke short trend, dotted line
Has positive divergence
-
Weekly:
Close to lower part of Symmetrical Triangle (will move fast in direction it breaks) White Lines, 2nd chart
TOO EARLY to call but #VIX teetering
#stocks $SPX #SPX #SPY $SPY
What me worry?Buy high, sell never, stonks always go up. right?
Either everyone has sold and no one needs put options,
or could there be a crowded bus is short puts and covered calls as an asset class?
Did so many years of low rates push everyone into becoming put sellers and covered call players?
lots of options chains are showing very little put skew, as in very little respect to downside potential. And skew risk is to the upside in many names. Are we that bullish?
SPY SPX SPX/GOLD VIX
Back to Normal, 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities prices continued to fall. Two price gaps were closed. A lower gap that formed on the 10th Jan and the opening gap from Thursday trade. S&P500 has fallen below the support level at 390.
➤ I think it is clear that price has just formed a lower high. I could argue the short-term downtrend from the Dec 2022 high has been established. This counters the uptrend from the Oct 2022 low but re-aligns with the long-term downtrend since Jan 2022. Did you get that?
➤ Another thing that has re-aligned is that the Tech/Growth/Small cap stocks finally underperformed the DJIA and broader S&P500. This is "normal" behaviour under a risk-off period. Does that mean we are back to 2022 mode?
➤ I closed my long position with a loss as price didn't respond like I wanted. What I want and what the market gives are two separate things. Price may still bounce but I'm not going to risk it at this stage.
➤ Conclusion: Next trade is most likely an opportunity to go short. Standing by.
Long VIX Mar $20 CallsToday was the first day in a while where bad news was bad for the market. After bouncing down off downward sloping trend resistance stocks moved lower on the day. Volatility has been relatively low and I'm looking to take advantage of that buy going long the Mar $20 calls. This should provide a good hedge against further market downside.
Bang! 19th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities fell sharpely on Wednesday trade. It was the largest down move of the new year. The market is reminding us that it's not a one way ticket to the moon. VIX is back above 20. I think we can forgive it for having a peek below the pink zone although I did think it would go lower prior to any rebound.
➤ S&P500 was battling the 200-day moving average. Price movement today rejected that level. It's not a conclusive failure as prices tend to whipsaw around such keenly watched technical levels.
➤ Still of interest is that the NASDAQ/TECH is still outperforming the DJIA BLUE CHIPS even on a large down day like today. Normally you would expect "riskier" assets to sell-off more during a risk-off phase.
➤ I opened a moderate long position looking for a quick trade.
➤ Conclusion: Dull one moment, intense the next.
UVXY double bottom? MaybeI hate to attempt to predict UVXY price action but the FED news was semi bearish, and Powell has COVID right after China had an outbreak a month ago. Is this deja vu of Jan 2020? If we can hold above this yellow line while the overall market goes side ways or tanks I think we can at least get a relief rally. If we get an unfortunate news via earnings or another black swan, this could be the bottom. Not financial advice, DYOR.
Beginning of the End, 18th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ OK, I'm being over-dramatic with the title of today's note. It actually was a pretty dull day of trading. NASDAQ continues to outperform the Blue Chip indices showing that overall risk-on behaviour is still prevalent.
➤ VIX did bounce higher back into the pink zone. Is this the start of something bearish? It's ambigious. The price action in the S&P500 was not meaningful other than to say there was some profit-taking. With earnings season starting, prices may be jumpy too.
➤ I have closed my long positions and now hold no positions.
➤ Conclusion: Dull action leads to more intense action. Looking forward to it.
Will history repeat again?Look at the VIX chart here; we are again in the VIX 18th zone. In 2022 it was an excellent indicator to spot the bottom; it works during the bear markets only!
So if we are still in a bear market, it should bounce from the 18 level hard and Indexes to fall. If we are entering a bull market, this setup can fail right here.
I doubt it will fail until we see Q1 lows in markets. I might be wrong, and this setup can fail in a grand style.
The VIX bottoms have an excellent correlation with SPX highs (at the bottom orange colour); look for the yellow marked pointers for the 2022 patterns from VIX 18 level. I think we will repeat the same pattern again.
VIX: VOLATILITY INCOMING??? / CHART UPDATE / SUPPLY & DEMANDDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided an UPDATED MACRO chart for the VIX with more reliable SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT & UPDATED TRAJECTORY.
POINTS:
1. DEVIATION of 7 POINTS in PRICE ACTION places SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS where most STABLE CONSOLIDATION OCCURS.
2. Current trend shows a DESCENDING CHANNEL with VIX NEARLY DOWN 50%
3. MACD'S LOWEST POINTS decides PERIODS where VOLATILITY comes to an END.
4. UPCOMING PREDICTION OF POSSIBLE NEW LOW IS FORMULATED FROM AN AVERAGE OF PERIODS MARKED BETWEEN LOWEST POINTS OF MACD THEREFORE: 91 Days + 135 Days + 109 Days = ROUGHLY 112 Days.
5. RSI signals increased VOLATILITY AFTER BREAK of 40 on RSI.
*IMPORTANT: SUPPORT at 19 has OFFICIALLY BEEN BROKEN. LOSS of 19 CAN BE A STRONG INDICATOR FOR OVERALL MARKET RALLY IN THE POSITIVE.
SCENARIO ONLY ONE: IF YOU ARE A BEAR YOU WANT TO SEE A REGAIN OF 19 SUPPORT AND FURTHER PUSH DOWNWARD FOR BULLS.
TVC:VIX
Market Update 1/15/2023More or less things are still in limbo. There is a possibility that there would be a huge upswing if the vix can start this week under 17.83.
We will see if that happens.
At the end of the day the rise from Jan 1st was pretty easy to see and we are in the "take profit" zone. This never inherently means done be in or sell everything, but is better thought of (from a bullish possibility) as a wave 2 or wave 4 in Elliot wave terms.
I go over more specifics in the video. I am too lazy to put timestamps for this one, but I think its worth the watch or listening to at least. Not too much new if you have been watching the previous updates.
VIX Futures - Oversold - INCOMING SURGEEvery time RSI has reached the 30 level it has bounced aggressively. With the recent fall of #kingdollar, stocks & crypto spike, & $VIX crush, I expect a REVERSAL PATTERN with a SURGE IN VOLATILITY. If margin calls get triggered we could see a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF in RISK "assets". Protect your #kingdollar. HEDGED with for CRISIS with $UVIX $UVXY. GL.
The Schindler ratio | Recession Proof Company listAMEX:SPY
The Schindler ratio measures the company's ability to withstand economic recessions. It is calculated by dividing the company's debt-to-GDP ratio by the median debt-to-GDP ratio for the industry in the intermediate future. The Schindler ratio is an essential metric for investors, as higher ratios indicate a more extraordinary ability for the company to withstand economic downturns. Studies have shown that companies with higher Schindler ratios tend to be more recession-proof than those with lower ratios. For example, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, Catlin Group, a UK-based insurer, had a Schindler ratio of 1.07, indicating that it was more likely to survive the recession than its competitors.
The Schindler ratio can also be used to compare the relative recession-proofing of different industries. For example, in a recent study, economists found that the Schindler ratio for the insurance industry was 0.909, meaning that it was less recession-proof than the retail industry, which had a ratio of 0.879. Furthermore, the study found that the Schindler ratio was lower at the tenth quantile than at the median, indicating that the recession-proofing of the industry was more pronounced at the higher distribution levels.
In conclusion, the Schindler ratio is a valuable metric for investors to consider when assessing a company's resilience in the face of an economic recession. Companies with higher Schindler ratios tend to be more recession-proof than those with lower ratios. The Schindler ratio can also be used to compare the relative recession-proofing of different industries.
Here is list of the best recession-proof companies based on the ratio:
Berkshire Hathaway
JP Morgan Chase
Apple
Amazon
Microsoft
Google
Johnson & Johnson
Wells Fargo
Procter & Gamble
Wal Mart
Visa
ExxonMobil
Bank of America
Pfizer
Chevron
Comcast
Intel
UnitedHealth Group
Coca-Cola
Home Depot
Merck
Goldman Sachs
CVS Health
AT&T
Walgreens
McDonalds
Oracle
JPMorgan Chase
Starbucks
Lockheed Martin
United Technologies
American Express
Boeing
General Electric
Abbott Laboratories
IBM
CitiGroup
Honda Motor
Honeywell International
Lowe's
Novartis
3M
Honda