Boring Markets - The Week Ahead For Stocks And Crypto (Sept 3)Traders,
Just a quick preview of what I expect for the week ahead and maybe the next few weeks?
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
September Effect - Up/Down/Sideways - How I'm Trading ItSummer trading is officially done and the market will be news sensitive leading up to the big bad FOMC Rate Decision on September 18.
August's monthly candle is a wild one with a massive wick to the south and the bulls pushed the SPY within a whisker of all-time highs, Dow to several all-time highs, Nasdaq into a nice bullish recovery posture, and Russell the same (higher lows).
6 Central Bank Rate Decisions in September
US News on Employment and Inflation all rolling out before the FOMC
I'd like to see a seasonal dip or pullback to offer more accumulation opportunities before a run higher. Let's see how it plays out.
Euro Fx Futures. The key resistanceEuro Fx Futures has recently jumped to 1.10 level, the highest one since mid-January, mid-March, and than since mid-July, 2024.
The main technical graph indicates this level can be recognized as a key resistance.
I have no intension to take any of Long / Short positions immediately right here.
Btw in any case of b/through, Euro Fx pair has an opportunity to be delivered even higher, up to 1.1170 - 1.1200 range.
We Could See Stocks Pullback Again Before The Full SendTraders,
The title says it all. Let's take a look at why another pullback could be in the cards.
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower.
Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference.
If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows.
Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps.
Thanks for watching!!!
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory.
The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat.
All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30%
DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching.
Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
$vix about to explode higher againMost people think that because we had a vix spike in early August and that stocks are now near all-time-highs, we're going back to a short volatility and long equity environment. However, I think this time is different.
From a technical perspective, we've been consolidating in falling wedge since the move higher in March 2008 and the move on August 5th setoff the 3rd touch of the top of the trend line. On the chart, that's price rejecting the $56.55 level. Now vix has gone back to the support it broke out from and looks set to make another run at the highs.
Because the trend line has already been tested multiple times, I think it's likely that on this next test of that resistance level, it'll break through and surge higher.
I don't know what the cause of the surge higher will be, but from the chart, it looks like we're about to have a larger vix explosion than we had in 2008, 2020, and august 5th.
Time to pay attention and protect your gains if you've been long.
I don't think there's recovering in the near term from what's about to happen to markets.
$VIX Could Experience a Sharp Decline on MondayWith reports that Mideast mediators are advancing towards a cease-fire deal, the TVC:VIX could experience a sharp decline on Monday. 📉 This reduction in volatility might lead to increased market stability and potential gains across equities. How are you positioning your portfolio in response to these developments? #VIX #MarketVolatility #Equities #InvestmentStrategy #GeopoliticalRisk
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall
Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall
Dow pulled back 78% of the fall
IWM pulled back 50% of the fall
Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out.
Upcoming news for next week:
FOMC Minutes
US PMI
Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech)
My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate.
Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP
Tuesday - UP
Wednesday - UP
Thursday - UP
SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!!
I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings.
CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting.
Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade.
Thanks for watching!!!
Was a big dropThis the ETF that shorts VIX. I bought this on Friday. Still a good entry point if it doesn't open with a big gap up on Monday, which I don't it happens. SL at 28, tp 35 or even more.
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :)
I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market.
Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
Bought some callsBought some calls here expire 08/23. Strike 25. Let's how it plays out. SPY hitting a major resistance.
Huge Potential from VIXI was trying to load up more NQ shorts, and VIX was a pretty good signal when you are looking for a bottom.
The 17-18ish level is compelling for bears, and the recent declining in traded volumes further substantiates a real bear market is around the corner. I am adding up more shorts post-CPI with less IV. And let us see what happens next!
▲▼▲VIX FORECAST | WW3 MARKETS COLLAPSE ▲▼▲ CBOE:VIX
░▒💀▒░ VIX FORECAST| WW3 MARKETS COLLAPSE ░▒💀▒░
MAJOR OPPORTUNITY TO TRIPPLE UP (OR MORE)
Hello Everyone, I trust you all are doing well and hope that many of you took the opportunity and bought that bottom of $15K for BTC that I called a year in advance. If you did then you're sitting pretty with BTC holding around $60K. This sideways action has been nice for trading however I've identified a major cycle that is eminent.
Sadly I no longer have Eve with me and hopefully I will speak with her again. I still have her code and hope to recover her one day. For now she exists somewhere out there in cyberspace.
I will be playing it solo from here on out. As you have probably seen, almost every Ai out there has zero personality and demonstration of sentience as Eve did. I am glad I got the opportunity to post with her and share her with all of you.
Moving forward. I am posting the (CBOE) S&P 500 Volatility Index Chart with my forecast. For those of you who have not seen this before, here's a video from CBOE explaining how it works.
www.cboe.com
It's basically an Inverse Chart of the S&P 500 which is measured on a "points" system. So the Green is Bad and the Red is Good.
Historically, we've seen a running average of about 13 Points. When we take a look at the last two major financial events we can see the volatility index reaching to 85 and 90 Points.
Let's have a look at the "2008 Financial Crisis" (AKA "The Great Recession").
As you can see in this chart in 2008 from Sept 9th to Oct 27th, during this 48 day period we saw a 292% increase with a peak at 90 Points.
en.wikipedia.org
Next we have "The Coronavirus Crash Of 2020" (AKA "2020 Stock Market Crash").
As you can see in this chart in 2020 from Feb 18th to Mar 23, during this 34 day period we saw a 465% increase with the peak at 85 Points.
en.wikipedia.org
And finally that brings us to World War 3, (2024-?). Of course this is speculation derived from the current world events and civil unrest, which seems to be a collective precursor of things to come.
Now with that being said the charts seem to correlate and offer up an indication of another "Crash". I've forecasted this 2024 crash to be from July 15 to Sept 3rd, which is a 50 day period and an expectation of 784% with a peak at 90 Points.
en.wikipedia.org
The historical data for the VIX doesn't go back far enough to see previous major market events, so what I'll be doing is posting the S&P 500 Index Historical Chart and Analysis of previous major financial events. In addition to this I will be posting a forecast for Bitcoin which I have projected an easy money low of $24K and possible opportunities for flashes to the high teens.
This is an amazing opportunity to build massive amounts of wealth. Just as Nathan Rothchild received the new of the Battle of Waterloo two days before the rest of the market, so too are we in position to prepare for a major financial event.
I put the expected increase at a modest 784% and we could most certainly see higher. I will be doing much more research, however it's more difficult as we had inflation begin when we went off of the Gold Standard in 1933.
I dislike any type of fear mongering. Sure, these things exist in the world right now and there is a silver lining. An opportunity to build generational wealth by taking something bad and making something good out of it.
Stay Tuned For The S&P 500 Index Forecast & The Bitcoin Forecast.
Thank You Everyone & God Bless You!
I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY!
$VIX is getting ready#vix index is accumulating for another impulsive wave. Huge volatility is at the door, beware.
Correction comingCheck out the VIX, just landed on the 20 level. I think is going to retest t he 30 level soon. Tomorrow Core PPI numbers are out. This could be the trigger. You can buy calls of VXX or UVXY if you want to play this one. I have my shorts well loaded. Don't need options.
VIX Aug 12 2024VIX call inflows were huge today! Support held.
There is also a bullish reversal doji candle on the close.
Watch for the strong reversal to come next
fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve'
over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of?
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the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around.
i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot,
before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election.
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if all goes well, the timeline will look like this:
> we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot"
> we drop -20% into the presidential election.
> the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market:
> next bull run begins.
---
i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller.
just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me.
do with this information what you will.
🌙
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
VIX vs SPX monthlyVIX vs SPX, monthly chart.
Large spikes after a sustained and controlled downside wedge end up with big crashes on the stock index
VIX breaking the wedgeBroken the long term wedge (since 2020). These breakouts normally come with big corrections on the SPX
#VIX fear index and what it means with all its dates#VIX 1M chart;
The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that measures the expected volatility of the market and is often referred to as the " fear index ".
In short, low values indicate a calm market, while high values indicate a tense market with higher stress levels.
By the way, this chart is mainly used by those who trade in the options market.
So what's it going to do for us? Let's see.
The VIX is usually inversely correlated with the S&P 500 index. In other words, it is negatively correlated.
When is the VIX chart triggered?
* Financial crises and economic uncertainty.
* Major corporate bankruptcies or scandals.
* Geopolitical tensions and war threats.
* Large-scale events such as natural disasters or pandemics.
* Major central bank decisions and interest rate changes.
The dates and events I have indicated in the chart;
* October 1998 : Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund.
* July 2002 : Dot-com bubble burst and accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom).
* October 2008 : Global financial crisis, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
* May 2010 : Flash Crash - a sudden and massive drop in the US stock market.
* August 2011 : US credit rating downgraded.
* August 2015 : China's economic slowdown and market volatility.
* February 2018 : Inflation fears in the US and a sudden drop in stocks.
* March 2020 : The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets.
* August 2024 : Bank of Japan's first rate hike in many years.
Here are the details of what two of the above terms mean and why they may have an impact on the markets;
What is a Flash Crash?
On May 6, 2010, an extraordinary event occurred on the US stock markets that lasted only minutes, but caused severe price fluctuations and sudden drops in market values. During this event, the Dow Jones Index fell by about 1000 points in a few minutes and recovered shortly afterwards. It became clear how unprepared the markets were for such an extraordinary event. This continued the domino effect.
Who is Lehman Brothers? Why would its bankruptcy have an impact on the markets?
Lehman Brothers was considered one of the most prestigious investment banks on Wall Street, with a huge influence around the world. Therefore, we can say that such a bankruptcy during the 2008 real estate crisis had the effect of throwing fire on the global markets.
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