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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

We are Many, 28th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ One thing I like about trading indices is that I don't have to deal with individual stock risk. A reasonably diversified portfolio will do the trick too. We have seen some major moves in the price of mega cap stocks this earnings season. Meta, Netflix, Amazon to just name a few. Overall, at the index level, they were pretty much non-events. The Many overcame the Individual. ➤ With the exception of tech, indices have overcome the bad individual stocks moves. This lends to a sense of bullish resilience. Something we probably haven't seen for a while. Does this mean that this bullish bounce is more sustainable or simply a case of "better" macro-economic factors such as a potential easing of interest rate rises have temporarily overshadowed bearish proceedings? ➤ I added a small short exposure in NASDAQ whilst keeping my longs in S&P500 and DJIA. An overall 30% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The S&P500 is sitting on short-term support. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Major earnings news is over...back to the macro-news grind.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
VIX is in the MIX, 27th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed higher once more but was unable to hold most of the gains. More often than not, this bearish looking daily reversal candle is not bearish at all. Buyers tend to bid it back higher. ➤ Price is approaching the next line of resistance. If successful in overcoming that hurdle, the next hurdle is some distance away at 417 on the SPY. That is 9% higher from here. ➤ The VIX (equity fear index) is contracting quickly well below my panic level of 30. If it keeps falling, it will soon hit the zone where things get interesting. This is the area where in previous months equity prices have reversed downwards and VIX rebounded higher. More often than not, the subsequent expansion in VIX has ended with equity prices setting a new low. ➤ I remain with 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Keep an eye on the VIX.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Double Bottom? 26th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price pushed strongly higher through resistance. After-hours trading is showing weakness due to earnings releases from Google & MSFT. ➤ With today's action, it is probably right to say the market structure has formed a double bottom formation (one could argue a small double bottom also occured with left/right bottom on 30 Sep/13 Oct). The larger structure has a left bottom on 17th Jun low and right bottom on 13th Oct low. If true, the first price target for the larger structure is the high at the peak on 16th Aug, price of 431 on the SPY. We are 12% away below that level. ➤ Most US/Europe indices have overcome short-term resistance levels. ➤ I added 40% long exposure in US indices, looking for further upside in the short-term. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Double-bottom formations are generally pretty reliable. Let's see how this plays out with the positive expectancy of US mid-term elections and the seasonal Christmas-rally.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Resistance is Futile, 25th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm not a nerdy Star Trek fan but it seems the phrase about resistance is appropriate here. For the S&P500, price is challenging the upper ceiling of the range that has unfolded from the start of October. ➤ A higher high has developed due to the temporary intrusion above the resistance level. This is a basic requirement to confirm a longer term trend change. A major higher low is now required. ➤ The bluechip DJIA (DOW30) is leading the charge higher. This is a bit suspect given that you would expect the riskier indices such as the NASDAQ to lead in a bullish environment. This may be a temporary lag but we need to keep an eye on it. ➤ I now hold zero exposure having exited my S&P500 position at resistance. I don't like to play when prices stop at support or resistance levels. More often than not, prices reverse course rather than break through. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bottoming VIX. If this occurs, I will jump in to short the market. If prices keep elevating I will miss out but I won't be kicking myself for it. Is Resistance really futile?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Oct 24th-28th.Big Tech Earnings Week.I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Stepped away from the markets on Friday as I went to Ensenada Mexico to celebrate my grandfathers 90th birthday. Dude is still going strong and showing no signs of stopping! Always important to spend time with your family, be present in the moment and not always think about the markets. Now, let's get into it. Interesting week last week as we finished Friday with a big green day. Which took many by surprise, especially after Thursday's candle, signaling a more bearish week. But if you sit back and take a look at the bigger picture, we've been in this zone for a few weeks now playing this tug of war game between the June lows and 3800. So, this is still a corrective phase that we're in and I don't think this is THE bottom. Remember that in Bear Rally's, sharp rebounds are to be expected. We're at the 20 EMA still and could continue to go touch the 50 EMA which would put us at 3800ish, 3850ish and still be considered a Bear Rally. With higher pivot lows forming, interest rates still rising with the 2 YR @ 4.6% and an inverted yield curve and a Fed with now intentions on pivoting. You gotta ask yourself: "Do we continue higher with all these head winds?". Many of these "earnings beat" headlines were already on reduced guidance. Corrections can happen two ways. With time, and with Price. Since about September 23rd, we've been correcting with TIME. And now looking for a corrective phase in PRICE with the move we saw on October 23rd and Friday's move. Now if we take a look at the VIX, you would think with all this volatility, it would be more aggressive but the VIX is a forward looking. It implies what is to be expected. And expectations came down last week but not significantly. Here's something to consider. Refresh and then Reinitiate. Sometimes when the market gets confusing, it's best to sit back and be patient for the right entry. Cash IS a position. Nothing wrong with waiting for a clearer picture. Look what happened back in May and June. There was hope in the market as it jumped up between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA before it continued lower. So, similar thing could be playing out here again. Let the hope phase fizzle out and reinitiate your execution. This week we have AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT announcing earnings and these guys are heavily weighted in the S&P, so important to pay attention to market activity. I am still bearish but not as bearish until I see what happens this week. Mange risk accordingly, position size, stay disciplined and patient. Happy Trading everyone!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Whipsaw, 24th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If the chart is looking congested, that's because it is. This is due to the whipsawing, range bound, choppy conditions. I think I've ran out of other descriptions...coiling maybe. I'm pretty sure market-makers are having a good time of it and perhaps day traders too...although the intra-day volatility and news flow, it may be hard to handle. ➤ With such conditions, it is probably wise to reduce risk and sit on your hands rather than being tempted to do something rash. That's exactly what I've been doing. There's been numerous times where a potential sustained bearish move looked to be on the cards but reversed course to snuff out that opportunity. An eager beaver would be licking multiple wounds from any pre-emptive strikes. ➤ That being said, price structures on all major equity indices in the US and Europe that I trade are almost back in sync. This simply means, once a trade opportunity arises, I will most likely be able to add risk simultaneously in multiple indices, hence, build a moderate to high conviction position at the portfolio level. Above average profits or losses should be expected. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure for now. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Coiling price action, poised to strike.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro