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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

The odds of another spike in the VIX are growingOn Friday, the Volatility S&P 500 Index reached new lows unseen since January 2020. What is intriguing about this situation is that new lows in the value of the VIX tended to be followed by a subsequent spike in the index and weakness in the U.S. stock market (over the past year or so). Considering that the recovery of the Chinese stock market is starting to show signs of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index moving increasingly sideways, we are again on high alert. The odds of stock market reversal and spike in the VIX are growing. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 Index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
2
#VIXI was writing once about #VIX: As history shows, the VIX can move around these values for a longer time too. This means that even if we come to 15, 11, 8-9, it is not necessary to wait for an instant market crash. We can get a not bad rally. In front of you Monthly chart of #VIX There is still space to go down. Be careful when #VIX touches levels below ***11.14 - 8.77*** Ince the price comes there - it is when you should look for shorts. Also RSI on M TF shows me that there is still a place where to go. I highlighted levels at ***40.67$*** and ***38.91%*** on RSI for you, when its time to pay extra attention and look for shorts. You can see that whenever RSI was coming there, the market was doing a pullback.
TVC:VIX
by vazitrades
"It's the holidays, I guess" -Del Griffith 9-day $VIX In FocusIt’s that time of year. Equity markets are often quiet while bond traders are sometimes caught napping on the trading floor. Thanksgiving is historically quite bullish – Stephen Suttmeier at BofA points out that in all years going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has outperformed over this period (markets are closed Thursday, and Friday is an NYSE half day). The average return during Turkey Day week is 27 basis points with the median gain being 0.36%. Returns for the balance of the year are usually strong, too – up 1.4% on average with a 70.5% positive rate. It’s indeed a sanguine stretch, and I refer investors to the 9-day VIX. This short-term volatility index is the lesser-known version of the 30-day VIX. Making my Monday morning chart rounds, I noticed that the 9-day VIX is just a smidgen from fresh 52-week lows. Zoom out the chart further back, and you’ll see that this volatility gauge doesn’t get a whole lot lower from here. The point? Don’t expect much action on Wall Street this week. I encourage traders to turn their collective attention to the end of next week and the first trading day of December. That is when we get the first major economic data point for November – the ISM Manufacturing survey. Given a weaker turn in the labor market and last week’s Retail Sales report for October that showed a softening consumer picture, I expect more signs of macro weakness to reveal themselves. Be advised that the November Nonfarm Payrolls report does not come until Friday, December 8.
CBOE:VIX9D
by mikezaccardi
VIX Volatility Index ~ Trend Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:VIX chart mapping/analysis. Always been a firm-believer in strong negative correlation with SPX. Key is not matching SPX highs with VIX lows ie "catching the bottom" - it should be used as a supplementary indicator for overall market direction, by identifying key support/resistance areas for trend switches that aids you in developing a Trading Edge . Chart Example: October 2022 peak in VIX marked (temporary?) bottom in SPX VIX unable to break above ~34 resistance zone after multiple attempts = gives way to lower highs & lower lows (change in trend) SPX responds by making series of higher highs & higher lows VIX bottoms around July 2023, unable to break below ~13 resistance zone (ie trend switch) SPX peaks in July & proceeds to pull back until recent reversal - coinciding with dramatic drop in volatility This is by no means a done & dusted chart - after all it's called the "Volatility Index" lol. It will require ongoing tweaking, back-testing & confluence with SPX TA work, as well as vigilance of evolving macro-economic events which get rapidly priced into both indices. Good luck :) Note: "SPX TEMP BOTTOM horizontal line should be adjusted higher to sit on VIX peaks - can't edit chart & cbf re-publishing...but you get the idea, cheers.
TVC:VIX
by BlueHatInvestor
DXY, VIX Down = SPY, STONKS UP. Blowoff Top Continues!Traders, It has been an amazingly bullish last couple of weeks both in the stonk world and in cryptos. In this video I cover what has occurred from a technical basis and what I think the charts are now showing us. In short, stonks look to continue their upward trends but crypto is less certain. I also wanted to explain why I went short on a few trades. What was I thinking then and what I am thinking now? Was I too early on my entries or just plain wrong? Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Volatility Heads Up with a First Break OutOver the last couple of days, the previous posts have been showing a number of indications from various perspectives about a financial market breakdown, and here we have an essential heads up... VOLATILTIY. I use the VXX ETN for the metrics it provides, albeit its idiosyncrasies. August into September, a breakdown into a lower range indicated that a RISK-ON situation was in the equity markets. Since September, this started reversing, rather strongly, and consolidated at the earlier range. In the past week, Thursday, it gave an real indication of what is forming... a significant Volatility breakout. This first stage break out is seen with the breaking out of a trend line, formed by the 4/1 line of the Gann Fan. This movement is a rather solid candlestick with momentum to boot, and both MACD and VolDiv are crossing up bullishly and breaking into the next upper range. So, expect a break out of the upper range (orange rectangle), as well as the 8/1 line of the Gann Fan forming the next trend line resistance. When this happens, VXX may be spring boarding to 35, from 26-27 area. That is like a 50% increase in VXX. Keep a close eye on this... the more the signs point, the more real it becomes.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Auguraltrader
Dxy Dropped. VIX Dropped. You Know What That Means?Traders, SPY has bounced exactly as the charts had shown us it would do. I will briefly discuss what we can expect now in the weeks ahead as we continue our move towards the target of our blowoff top. We will also look at a few of my short plays. I will discuss what I was thinking in entering and what I expect now. I was stopped out of the NVDA play and will update my spreadsheet soon! BTC and SOL shorts are still on and SOL is well into profit. Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
3
VIX WARNING RALLY is SHORT COVERING SQUEEZE like I said The chart posted is the VIX of the VIX the VVIX has the cycle which I stated on monday and friday last week a short squeeze is now setup as the13.8 to 15.2 week decline would see a sharp rally. And that the IYT RSP BA and TNX were making a ending of a 5WAVES pattern we are only going to see an ABC rally and the last 5 days have been wave A so CAUTION I think the wave strurture in TLT is that of a wave 4 it should not get above 88.3 if that is the correct count then we will see a print of 81.5 to 79.6 and the VIX will be well into 29.6 to 38 so take any profits NOW
V
by wavetimer
USCCI - Consumer Confidence Index - Recession is HereThe US Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) does not look so good. Consumers (normal people) are feeling anxious about their future, and they have good reasons for that. The Bull Market did not last long after the Covid Pandemic and people don't feel optimistic about their future spending or wealth. If you don't know what the CCI is, no worries, I will briefly explain, so that a 12 year old will know. A very well-known university in Michigan started doing some surveys a long time ago. They were asking people how they feel about their future, about their spending confidence, etc. Basically, you can also ask yourself: Can you afford a new car now? Are you making more money now then you were 2 years ago? Do you have financial stability? How do you feel about that? Are you thinking of moving into a new, nicer home? For me it's a NO for most questions above. Not sure about you... Now, if I may continue, I will tell you this: people are scared. In fact, Covid shocked the world as we know it. We got used to being bullied by the higher, running forces in the world. Anyway, there are many factors for which Consumers are pessimistic at these times: - War & Tensions: Ukraine vs. Russia - Inflation Spike - Energy Crisis - Federal Reserve (FED) Interest Rate Hike - Surging Prices - Bear Market Fears - Recession Talks Remember this: WINTER IS COMING! No joke, many will suffer. The media plays a major role with inflicting sentiments in your mind. As for me, I'm more of a technical guy, so I go with what my technical analysis tells me. Until now I mentioned my personal fundamental analysis take. I'm not optimistic about the markets. The FED messed it all up. They overreacted with that Quantitative Easing (QE). Artificial (fake & printed) money was injected, and of course it lost its value. Because of that, Inflation skyrocketed, and of course they're surprised. NO! It's the oldest trick in the book. They are controlling the global economy. It's actually them who are causing inflation or stagflation, and also them who are switching bullish and bearish gears. But enough about that. I'm gonna' switch to the Technical Side. I just wanted to get that off my chest. LOL So, I'm an Elliottician. That means I trade by using the Elliott Wave Theory. It proven to me over the years that it works. The Market's price movements are simply suman beings buy & sell emotions, as a herd. Yeah, they're all sheep, and most indicators are based those herd emotions. So, on this USCCI chart, which is coming from 1953, I'm labeling my Elliott Wave Count. What I see is a Triple Three Complex Correction, in a very BIG degree. TradingView calls it: Elliott Triple Combo Wave (WXYXZ). Based on that Wave Count, I am suspecting more down-side to this chart. In a nutshell, I'm anticipating a RECESSION. How big it will be and how long it will last, that depends. For what I know, the Bear Market has already started for Indices globally. My VIX (Volatility Index) idea backs this up. Short and simple: the USCCI would tag the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of Wave A (white). That's a point of interest for bulls, because it reflects the Golden Ratio. If it breaches and goes lower than that, then it's not just a Recession anymore, it's gonna' be more like a Depression. 1929 all over again. Funny how these Cycles come into play... My chart has labels and infographic stuff. Write a comment if you want, give a like if you give a :poop: :D Good luck!
ECONOMICS:USCCI
by Lionheart-EWA
5
Weekend Update - Stocks and Bitcoin DivergenceTraders, If you've been reading my static posts, you'll know that the SPY has reached its downside target of 410 for the head and shoulders pattern that we've been watching. It's now looking like a bounce can be expected. I'll briefly touch on what I am seeing on the SPY chart as well as the DXY, VIX, and, of course, Bitcoin. I'll also quickly brief you all on my Bitcoin short trade and what I am expecting might occur here. Best, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
1
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook; Buying risk when its darkestA Traders’ Playbook; Buying risk when its darkest Equities continue to find few friends and reviewing so many of the daily and weekly set-ups in our core equity indices, standing in front of the move and countering seems a low probability outcome at this juncture. The China CN50 and AUS200 look particularly weak, while EU equity markets are in steep decline, with price breaking level after level. In the US, the NAS100 sits on a huge support zone seen between 14,560 and 14,430, with the US500 eyeing the 4 Oct swing low at 4200 – if these levels are broken this week and SPX 20-day realised volatility rises further, then market chatter will centre on the S&P500 pushing towards 4000. The contrarians have started to look at sentiment and throw out a range of charts, including deteriorating market breadth and the number of stocks (in an index) below the 20-, 50- or 200-day moving average, that have an RSI below 30, or resides at 4-week lows. On current standings we’re not yet near a point of maximum bearishness. The CNN Fear and Greed can do a good job capturing the mood across markets and this says a similar message. The time for contrarianism is approaching – and who doesn’t love a tradeable V-bottom – but it isn’t now. Maybe corporate earnings can have a more positive effect and stabilise sentiment. With 47% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting this week, this is the week it could happen, and guidance and outlooks from CEOs can play a more important role. The macro matters though, and we continue to focus on geopolitical headlines, moves in the US 10- and 30-year Treasury, volatility, and energy markets. With bonds offering no defence in the portfolio, traders continue to manage drawdown risk through volatility, gold, and the CHF as the preeminent hedges. The USD hasn’t performed as well as some had hoped through this period of equity drawdown and rise in long-end bond yields. One factor is that we’re seeing a rise in EU and Chinese growth momentum, so the rest of the world is looking less bad. We also regress and understand that the CHF acts more like gold in times of geopolitical tensions, and after a 7.8% rally between July and October (in the DXY), consolidation in the USD index was always a possibility. Keep an eye on USDCNH and USDJPY as a guide, and the fact we see both pairs in a sideways consolidation is keeping broad G10 FX volatility subdued and a factor keeping the USD from moving freely on a broad FX basis. As many try and pick a turn in equity markets, a bounce in risk this week can't be ruled out, and we need to be open-minded to all possibilities – its fighting an evolving momentum though and many will prefer to initiative (or add) shorts into any rallies, rather than fight it. Buying risk when it's darkest and sentiment is rock bottom is a well-adopted market philosophy but I’m not sure we’re there just yet. Marquee data points for next week: • EU manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:00) – the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 43.6 (from 43.4 in September) and the services index at 48.6 (from 48.7) • UK manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:30) -– the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 44.6 (from 44.3 in September) and services at 49.3 (unchanged 49.3). A better services print could see a big reaction in GBP given how short the market has got. • Australia Q3 CPI (25 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus sees headline CPI at 5.3% yoy (from 6%) / core CPI at 5.0% yoy (5.9%). The Aussie interest rates markets price a hike on 7 Nov at 34% - so, if we get a CPI print above 5.4%, we could see the market pricing a hike at the November RBA meeting at or above 50%. AUDNZD has been the best expression for AUD bulls but is coming into a supply zone around 1.0850. • US S&P manufacturing/services PMI (25 Oct 00:45 AEDT) – a data point the market could completely ignore or could be the trigger for a sizeable reaction – the consensus is we see manufacturing at 49.9 (from 49.8) and services at 49.9 (50.1). • BoC meeting Canada (26 Oct 01:00 AEDT) – the swaps market ascribes very little chance of a hike at this meeting, and only 6bp of hikes through to March 2024 – if the tone of the statement suggests a greater risk of hikes in the future, then the CAD should rally. • ECB meeting (26 Oct 23:15 AEDT) – the ECB won’t hike at this meeting, so the focus falls on their guidance on the economic outlook and hurdle for hikes in the future. There will also be a focus on the bank’s plans to increase QT, and even look at the timeline on sales from APP and PEPP bond purchase program – if this is brought forward from Jan 2025 the market would see this EUR positive. • US Core PCE inflation (27 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – US headline PCE inflation is eyed at 3.4% (from 3.5%) and core 3.7% (3.9%) – it would have to be a big number to put a hike at the Dec FOMC meeting on the table – a November hike is not up for debate and the market sees a hold as a full-gone conclusion. • Chile central bank meeting (27 Oct 08:00 AEDT) – The market looks for a 50bp rate cut, but there are risks for 75bp – can USDCLP print new cycle highs? Central bank speakers: Fed speakers – Powell (26 Oct 07:35 AEDT – unlikely to offer any new market intel). Waller (27 Oct 00:00 AEDT) and Barr BoE speakers – Cuncliffe (27 Oct 03:45) RBA speakers – Gov Bullock (24 Oct 19:00 AEDT) & Bullock and Kent both appearing at the Senate testimony (26 Oct 09:00 AEDT) Marquee US earnings and the implied move on the day of earnings (derived from options pricing) – on the week we see 43% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Marquee names include - Alphabet (4.8%), Microsoft (4.1%), IBM (2.7%), Meta (8.6%), Amazon (6.4%), Intel (6.6%), Exxon (2.4%)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Pepperstone
Trader Thoughts – when realised vol rises that’s when we worrySentiment in markets continues to sour, with the market heading towards the safety of gold, the CHF and equity index volatility. We see the VIX index above 20%, showing a pickup in market players hedging equity drawdown, and paying up for downside puts in the S&P500. The VIX index at 21.4% equates to implied daily moves in the US500 of 1.34%, and 3% over the week. The market's key concern, and a critical mover of risk, remain concerns surrounding an escalation in the countries involved in the geopolitical tensions, with the US unable to contain the conflict. It is becoming one largely correlated trade – new headlines emerge, Brent crude, and to a lesser extent (currently) EU Nat gas rallies, and we subsequently see buyers in the CHF and gold. Equity vol also rises, and funds rotate into defensive areas of the market and offset risk through energy names. It would be when we see S&P500 realised volatility moving higher that should see things move even more aggressively. This is where we see a lot of the hedge funds that target a specific level of volatility start to reduce equity holdings, while CTA’s (systematic trend following funds) would also reduce exposures. With reduced buyers in the market and higher vols, this is the time when short sellers will see their ideal conditions to deploy strategies. As we see S&P500 10-day realised vol remains subdued, but any lift could have big implications. The other aspect of the market cross-current is the ever-higher yields in 10- and 30-year US Treasuries. This has in part been driven by a rise in US real rates (bonds adjusted for expected inflation over that period). But also, ‘term premium’, or the additional compensation bond investors require to hold longer-dated debt rather than simply holding and rolling over 2-year Treasuries upon maturity. A resilient US economy is partly behind that, and so is the Fed’s current commitment to higher for longer. The deteriorating US fiscal position is likely playing a role in higher long-end yields too and the notion of increasing supply from the US Treasury department, a factor even Jay Powell mentioned last night was “unsustainable”. As we head to the next US Treasury Quarterly Refunding date in November, the fact President Biden is requesting a $100b aid package for Israel and Ukraine to a leaderless House will only exacerbate concerns around Increasing bond supply and the potential demand from private investors. While fixed-income investors see the conviction in trading Treasury curve steepeners, many others ask, “Will something in the system break”? Well, we look for the signal in the price action in credit, volatility, and bank equity. For now, what may be more prevalent, in the shorter term, would be a sharp rise in energy that moves concurrently with even higher long-end yields – that would be a toxic mix for risk. As we close out the week, traders will be paying attention to the tape today as we roll into European and US trade – Will traders de-risk going into the weekend and put further safe-haven bets on, seeing the potential for another gapping risk in Monday's cash and futures open?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone