Volatility S & P 500 Index Next MovePair : Volatility S & P 500 Index
Description :
Completed " 123 " Impulsive Wave
C & H
Bullish Channel in Short Time Frame as an Correction
Fibonacci Level - 78.60% / 100%
Demand Zone
Vixderivatives
VILX - VIX ETF 2.25 Volatility - Fibonacci Summer CorrectionI'm thinking to make a nice play on my upcoming correction belief.
Only option I have with my broker is VILX, so started looking into it's history.
Only makes big money with big crashes / corrections, and I think we have two on the way.
Data was so small for the main chart, but looking at the RSI here, some very interested volatility wave patterns.
I'm always interested to see if there is fib correlations in dates and movements, and this one took some old school math to show.
Very interesting!
Soon be time to make a play on this, wish me luck ;)
Fun With Fibonacci - VILX Fund - Amplified VIX I'm 100% certain a big correction is coming (possibly barring any stimulus that may scupper this, likelihood is it could even be the cause!) start of Q2 2021.
I want to make a Vix play on this and this is my only option with my broker so been taking a dive.
Straight away, arcs of intent everywhere, clear ebb and flow patterns. Being a fib fan, especially in waves scenarios, I wanted to see if could find anything.
Has to be said, this is not a science, on big charts small changes in chart points can lead to big number changes, but I found my rough measurements correlated very well to Fib numbers, and the one that didn't so much can be explained in a fib way (confirmation bias?).
However what I loved was the adding up of the ratios and finding them to tally to sets of 3's.
Other than the 1.62 which is clear fib ratio, I'm not so sure of the other ratios, although 1/2 .38 + .62 comes close to .78 so maybe it's just my numbers are slightly off.
Anyway, gives a nice system to work to in order to guess the coming time span of future volatility lengths.
However, I have guessed these at the end based not only on the underlying 3 number but also based on some S&P500 chart fib work I have done.
This is on another account but I really must / will remake it here to be published, keep you eyes peeled!
ridethepig | VIX Slingshot In Play 📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis.
Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat :
The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger.
To save the overshoots, we cleared all and even covered some at the 85 highs.
📌 When a deep retrace came into play it has created enough energy for a slingshot.
Buyers of volatility are quite happy to exchange here at the lows as they are in full control and holding the bid at 🔑 support. Sellers of vol and the 'everything is back to normal crowds' will be condemned to liquidation. This wave 2 attempt at breaching support which has miserably failed today is a visual example of pinning your opponent.
The key point is liquidations. Global Equities are complacent, retail have bought as much as they can. Large hands have cleared, since the Covid chapter II irritates them (from a retracement perspective at the very least). And it will comedown to a massacre in VIX... Seriously it is just as well we are seeing the back of VVIX...that really was a monster.
📌 How and Why these slingshots occur in VIX?
When major forces on both sides clash together, it comes down to an exchange. In this case the health crisis cannot be solved via the monetary or fiscal side, shutting down the economy has caused long term repercussions. Especially with the elderly and overshoots on dependencies.
In simply terms the older demographics will be forced into using savings to support families, businesses will be more defensive with capital, the issue is not solved with stimulus, it is solved with CONFIDENCE . The policy mistakes here are off the charts and may even cost Trump the election.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
VIX Daily Range for Jul 2ndVIX Daily Range for Jul 2nd
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
13:16:20 (UTC)
Thu Jul 2, 2020
This is the Most Important Chart in the World The most important chart in the world right now: VIX futures. That golden line at 31.3 must hold to maintain the bearish scenario alive. Notice what is doing the MACD histogram on the daily TF.
VIX Daily Long Range - Thu Apr 9, 2020VIX Daily Long Range - Thu Apr 9, 2020
19:37:51 (UTC)
Thu Apr 9, 2020
VIX Risk Range - 12:59:46 (UTC) Tue Apr 7, 2020Previous Close: 45.24
Upper Bound: 70.23
Lower Bound: 40.13
Bias: Long
12:59:46 (UTC)
Tue Apr 7, 2020
OPENING: VXX MARCH 20TH 12/14 SHORT CALL VERTICAL... for a 1.19/contract credit.
Notes: Adding a little to my existing position (same strikes) on this pop. Although it now looks unlikely that we will clear the short call strike at 12 by March expiry given current price and average decay rates, we'll see how it goes. 1.09/contract collected on the first tranche; 1.19 collected on this one. In this particular case, both tranches are of an equal number of contracts, so I've collected (1.09 + 1.19)/2 = 1.14 per contract, so my position break even is the short call strike plus the per contract credit collected or 13.14.
If you did two contracts on the first tranche at 1.09 and three on the second tranche at 1.19, your break even calculation would be /5 = 1.15/contract.
Will look to shed units at 50% max and then roll out for duration and forced credit if necessary to give the remainder of the position time to work out.
Volatility Outlook (VIX) June 2016During periods of risk the VIX tends to get inverted- typically during times of stress this has stay inverted for quite some time, 6 weeks after last years shock valuation from China.
When this curve goes back to a normal upwards sloping curve, this is usually a very good sign.
The US equity markets has been pricing in the UK as an 'island', the risk of Brexit is enormous.
The problem is and this is where the options market gets it right, it's going to be like watching a really boring movie in slow motion.
There are not a lot of near time trading events from an options point of view, or a risk point of view.
Borris has taken himself out, how do you really trade that? there are not a lot of really tradable events in the near-term.
The end of quarter beta chase were not as important had be not had the Brexit and market been up 9% YTD
The volatility floor, globally will rise to a higher level - it really comes down to the political dynamics in the euro-zone, if these can be contained.
TRADE IDEA: UVXY JUNE 17TH 10/13 SHORT PUT VERTICALSince I have a "virtual gaggle" of VXX trades on, I'm turning my attention to UVXY setups (in spite of its warts) to go long volatility here.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 64%
Max Profit: $120/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $180/contract
Notes: The mid price for this setup is $115, but bid/ask is wide in this instrument, so I'd putz with a fill above mid, particularly since price may back into the setup from where it's currently at (17.03). Look to take the money and run at 50% max profit ($60/contract) should you get filled.
