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Vixfutures

VIX is on bearish momentum! | 10th Feb 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 21.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 18.15 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MacD is showing bearish momentum and prices are trading under our EMA 28, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:VOLXShort
by Rockqet
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility. Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves: The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility. In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general. I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes. I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study: - A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike. - If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal). I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames. In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIXLong
by TheDots
4
VIX - Don't Be Afraid of FearVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. Is a high VIX good or bad? When the VIX reaches the resistance level, it is considered high and is a signal to purchase stocks—particularly those that reflect the S&P 500. Support bounces indicate market tops and warn of a potential downturn in the S&P 500.
TVC:VIX
by TRWORLD2021
VIX - Monthly - BIG UPSIDE ON VIXOn the monthly and daily chart, I see VIX making a bullish comeback which suggest we are about to see crazy volatility in the stock market. Combine that with the recent insider selling from Jeff Bezos of around $2 billion worth of amazon shares and Kimbal Musk (Elon Musk's brother) selling around $100 million worth of tesla shares on Nov 5th and then Elon Musk himself proposing to sell his own shares, We are more than likely to see a market pull back or crash in the coming weeks.
TVC:VIXLong
by abm-trading
The most important crossing since Covid's low, Golden Cross !!!!What Is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)? The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. The index is more commonly known by its ticker symbol and is often referred to simply as "the VIX." It was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and is maintained by Cboe Global Markets. It is an important index in the world of trading and investment because it provides a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions. Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or use VIX values to price derivatives.
TVC:VIX
by samitrading
S&P500 third consecutive triple DIV!Hi folks! This - in addition to almost everything in financial markets ATM - is very scary reading. S&P500 just flashed a third consecutive (i.e. uninterupted by an equivalent buy signal) Triple Divergence (RSI, MACD and Volume) since the covid-correction on the dialy. Usually, one such signal is a bad sign, but three consecutive ones is just madness. Time to hand over the bags and buy volatility, short or just sit ut out completely - just everything else than being long the stock market. For me, I have accumulated VIX futures (VIXY ETF) since the end of june at all times when it dipped under 16 to protect my long holdings. I sold almost all my other holdings late friday after the bounce - its just a terrible risk/reward ATM. DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in your game.
SP:SPXShort
by TheDots
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots