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Vixlong

VIX Spike to 'Covid' Crash Levels... What Happens NextThe last time the VIX spiked this high was during the March 2020 Covid 'Crash' which was followed by an epic Bull run after that, and proved to be one of the best buying opportunities. With Japan's unwinding of their 'Carry Trade' and overall US stock market correction, the FED is likely to do an emergency rate cut this month. And the US elections are coming up, which likely means QE to prop up the economy, as the the next liquidity cycle begins... So this could be a great signal to flip back to Bullish in the crypto markets. Fear and Greed is also down to 25, which is another good indicator of sentiment reverting to the mean and back toward Greed sooner than later. I'm buying, and happy my limit buy orders from yesterdy for SOL at $115, $120, and $125 all filled today and already are in profit.
CBOE:VIXLong
by BrettFogle
The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge. In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times. A Geopolitical Powder Keg We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events: Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability. Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran. Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy. Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape. The Role of the Fear Index The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises. Historical Context Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions: Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment. 1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises. 9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks. 2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse. COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions. Methodologies for Calculation Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility: Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility. Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media. Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels. Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions. The Psychological Impact Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by: Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses. Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events. Strategic Applications Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions. Conclusion The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
CBOE:VIXLong
by signalmastermind
Large correction coming soon? $VXX is the play.If you've been following me for a while, you know that I've been warning of a crash for some period of time, and now I think we're within weeks of that playing out. I've largely been bullish for the past year, with periods where I thought things might fall, but now all of my upside targets for BTC have been hit (minus GETTEX:54K which is still possible) and stocks are looking like they're on their last leg higher. While I'm very bullish over the long-term (into 2027), I think that the rest 2024 will be bearish (which would catch a majority of the market off guard as everyone is expecting a top to be put in by the end of this year). They're not really expecting for the rest of the year to be bearish and for 2025-2027 to be the real bull run. This is my base case. I've been watching VXX for sometime, and I think we're very close to the levels where we'll see a reaction higher. I think over the next couple of weeks, some data will come out that sends VXX into a capitulation move lower, down to the $12-13 supports that are on the chart. Those levels will be great levels to buy some calls. I'll be buying June $20 + $25C as I think those will provide the best risk/reward for this move, if it is to play out. Let's see if it plays out.
AMEX:VXXLong
by benjihyam
1
Vix Gaps up 18% with Israel/Iran Conflict The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a decrease. The Size of the gap coupled with the Daily level and the not-too-far off Weekly level provided a strong place to reverse to fill the gap. The market is up 3% on the day after being up much more. Since the beginning of the Israel/Iran Conflict (Monday April 15th) the Vix is up 9% . As we move further into Q2, I'm anticpating a continued pullback in the broader stock market or even range. Vix may go sideways or range
TVC:VIXLong
by ShrewdCatfx
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out. TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down. Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
TVC:VIX
by citsvar
Volatility Indices Analysis (VIX10/VIX50/VIX75)Knowledge Required to nail these synthetic index pairs: 1, Good understanding of price Trend/directions 2, Absolute respect for Supports and Resistances 3, Knowledge of candle stick patterns 4, Discipline to use partial TP, SL 5, Discipline to wait for confirmations and only act when required See the video for deeper understandinbg of VIX pairs. Do you require support to make money using VIX pairs? check my profile for more.
FX:GER30Short
by Kingsley_lotanna
Sniper Trading System EXPLAINEDIf you do not have a system that's calibrated to the code that's generated on the 1 sec time frame you will always find yourself guessing and never really KNOWING. My System is calibrated down to the 1 second time frame where the money aka code is generated. What I discovered is: if you can find the KEY to the Daily bias you have a considerable EDGE in the market. I found that key and it is found in the 12AM Candle. This candle lets a Sniper Know where the raid will go before the main move aka Trend of the day. In this trade on NAS 100 ( my system works on everything) the 12 AM told me that the raid would be Bullish after 1AM. So we anticipate the short during one of our Clearing House Times - when the algorithm seeks Liquidity aka Raids your Stops. Today we got the drop at 8:30am EST. 1st TP SMACKED. 2nd TP KISSED as of now and headed to target. The VIX is due for a rebound so NAS100 may continue to fall this week.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Master-Jedi-Trader
VIX to breakOut on April 24th SPX Crashhello traders, Get ready for Stock Market Crash - of 2023 #VIX is now on a major support and growing consistently, on April 24th 2023, it will break out of resistance and shoot up, Two more weeks of Bulls, then Stock Market CRASH on the week of April 24 2023. I will be liquidating all my Long Trades, on the next two weeks, and opening more short positions. Trade: Safe Carefully Hedged Good Luck and Good Profit Edward Trader #SPX500 #SP100 #NASDAQ
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn5368510
The Vix TrendThe Trend in the VIX It appears the VIX is bouncing off its lower diagonal support. Historically the VIX does move in diagonals trends, even prior to this one. This chart is self explanatory from a trading perspective. - Double bounces off diagonal support have been good long entries. - Within 1 - 4 weeks of the double bounces there has been large increases in volatility (150%+ moves). This one has capacity for a 60 - 80% move and your risk is 5% to the downside. - The risk reward is reasonable if you are not using leverage or using low leverage (2x or 3x). In general just don't ever use leverage, trust me. - If you are going to use leverage, which i don't recommend be careful and recognize and ensure that the the product on your chart is the same as on the platform you are using. (There are multiple VIX products and they all move a little different). Also please ensure you weight your margin put down 2 :1 or 3:1 to give you ample room to avoid liquidation (stops don't always work on fast moves so we protect against that too). - Honor the dashed orange line. Strength and Honor!! - The orange dashed line means you are leaving with a small loss or your exiting the trade with at least 80% of your original position after making some nice profit. Any move higher than this will mean epic recession and whilst a recession is highly likely within the next 12-18 months, that's a long timeframe in a volatility trade....lets not put our emotions through that. - I would hope that we would have some direction on this trade short term....within 4 to 8 weeks. Major Caveat - I do not trade the VIX however I will trade this set up and I have been haunted this chart for some time. I consider this a highly risky trade and I will only be putting down a small percentage of a percentage of my portfolio. If you are unsure about this trade, please only place a small fraction of what your had already considered. I could not pass up sharing this as it really does look like a reasonable risk to reward and there is a defined pattern from a TA perspective. Good luck to you all PUKA
TVC:VIXLong
by PukaCharts
20
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / COMPRESSION / DIVERGENCE / PUTOVERCALLDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an update on a MACRO analysis of VIX VOLATILITY CYCLES. The creation of a set of new cycles is marked when VIX finds a new floor of support. POINTS: 1. Deviations have been adequately adjusted for VIX with a 7 Point difference between CHANNELS. 2. Price Action is currently resting at NEW FLOOR of 19 & Price Action is consolidating. 3. 5 YEAR TREND LINE IS APPROACHING MONTHLY PRICE ACTION FLOOR. 3. NO RECESSION AFTER 1998 HAS EVER COME TO AN END WITHOUT VIX FIRST SPIKING TO 40 OR 45 AT LEAST. RSI: There is in fact a lot to be said for RSI as it rests roughly below the 50 Point average which would signal that RSI is set to flip into Oversold territory. RSI must reach the 30 Point average in the coming weeks or anything above the 30 Point average & rising could signal a divergence occurring between ascending RSI LEVELS & CONSOLIDATING PRICE ACTION WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SOME VIOLENT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. MACD: As of now MACD is resting at an average oversold level of -2.0 but is signaling a move to the upside in coming weeks. MAIN POINTS OF CONTROL: 1. RSI DIVERENCE OCCURS AS RSI RISES & PRICE ACTION CONSOLIDATES. 2. MACD FLIPS INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. 3. A BREAK OF 21 POINTS FOR PRICE ACTION CAN BE INDICATIVE OF FURTHER UPSIDE FOR VIX IN THIS SCENARIO. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC