⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting...
A favorite ratio of mine has reached the low end of its range. The sentiment ratio which illustrates complacency and suggests a contrarian stance is warranted. Like all contrarian metrics, betting on mean reversion typically comes to fruition eventually, but tells you nothing about when that will occur. That being said, I try to be as 'timely' as possible...
The vix has a history of forming explosive price wedges. It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to say we're forming a new wedge here. Also, I suspect that we're on the verge of a new upward wave in volatility from here- it might just be a lower high in a new wedge. The market has gotten way ahead of itself and there are just too many new traders piling into...
📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. ...
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Vix Daily Range for Jul 16 14:28:15 ( UTC ) Thu Jul 16, 2020
VIX Long Entry + Daily Risk Range 13:24:27 (UTC) Fri Jul 10, 2020
Vix Daily Range for: 13:28:56 (UTC) Mon Jul 6, 2020
VIX Daily Range for Jul 2nd _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 13:16:20 (UTC) Thu Jul 2, 2020
VIX Daily Range for Jun 30 13:13:28 (UTC) Tue Jun 30, 2020
The most important chart in the world right now: VIX futures. That golden line at 31.3 must hold to maintain the bearish scenario alive. Notice what is doing the MACD histogram on the daily TF.
61.8% Fib retracement and Bollinger midline support reached. Either bound or pierce next.
Let me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs , perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas...
VIX Daily Long Range - Thu Apr 9, 2020 19:37:51 (UTC) Thu Apr 9, 2020
Previous Close: 45.24 Upper Bound: 70.23 Lower Bound: 40.13 Bias: Long 12:59:46 (UTC) Tue Apr 7, 2020