Back then: VNQ falls below 20 SMA in Jul 2007 Double attempt to rebound (red arrows) but failed after struggling 15 months, a sell off begin in Oct 2008 Now: VNQ falls below 20 SMA in Jun 2022 Double attempt to rebound (red arrows) but failed RSI remained in low levels below 50 (more bearish than bullish) Might not seen the worst yet, unless RSI reverse back above 50
Markets don't necessarily repeat, but they do tend to 'rhyme'. What do you think?
Just like in the lead up to the 2008 the REITs have been going up with no sign of slowingh down whilst inside of an Ascending Broadenign Wedge/Channel and has on it's 4th attempt gone above the Supply Line Breifly only to very quickly come back down again and now it's cracked below botht the 21 and 55 Month EMAs; The last time it's done marked the beginning of an...
This could be a substantial bottom in $VNQ here, worth monitoring at the very least. I have no position here, but tracking thee main ETFs and top 30 market cap stocks at all times, as well as my own watchlist for my long term account, and my screening tool output. Sentiment has been quite bad, and we had a rapid worsening of financial conditions for home buyers,...
XLRE $40 Our current real estate fund positioning. XLRE>VNQ
Simple chart to look at the relation between hew home builds, a broad housing ETF and a mortgage lender. It demonstrates that they all have a strong correlation and that mortgage company performance is a leading indicator of housing market performance and that new build housing stocks are a leading indicator for the housing market in general.
Potential relationship between real estate (using VNQ etf as a proxy) and silver. I drew this several months ago and so far the arc and channel have held. I've heard of the 18 year RE cycle but wonder if that's only valid during a prolonged bull market. I expect at least a 10 year bear market in the SPX to begin in the next few years after a final top is made. ...
As interest rates rise housing might see a slowdown. Added to watchlist, possible H&S formation.
Is BTC Solid against Inflation? Well, my little inquisitive love muffins, let’s find out! What is inflation? Inflation refers to the increase in prices of goods AND services within an economy. It is commonly referred to devaluation of the dollar. What causes inflation? Complex question that maybe many don’t agree on but in essence; - Excessive money...
$vnq is showing: trend break backtest of the dead trend a diamond pattern a triple peak/head-and-shoulders pattern and what seems to be a full set of waves before a correction. There's lots of signals here. Plus, this comes just as the FED is about to attempt normalising policy and of course, we have the Black Swan event of the Ukraine conflict.
Idea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending...
Bullish flag pattern is breaking out on $VNQ $115 coming soon!
Vanguard Real Estate is showing some interesting things after quietly consolidating since early June. And now, it finds itself in the midst of a breakout of its previous all time high at $105.77. It is still very early, but if the VNQ can confirm any sort of sustained price action above the $105.77 price level on the daily and weekly time frames, fireworks could...
Trade for DRV: - Long DRV 10C Feb 22, 2022 for 0.5 debit. - Entered position based on Distribution cycle tending to affect the price in last 20% of the wave. Target downgap fills: GLHF - DPT
Idea for Housing/REITs (VNQ): - The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs. - Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop. - China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals: www.bloomberg.com - State firms ordered to...
Rates rates rates. Lower interest rates in the US are a tailwind for US RE and result in US RE outperforming Global Ex-US Real Estate. The US RE vs. Global Ex-US RE ratio is breaking down is priced at January 2020 levels
Quantamental Tools for Proprietary and Retail Investors. Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Delivered to Your Inbox. QuantChart. io Long 100 $AIV Short 32 $BXP Mean Reversion Time: 10 Trading Days