Bitcoin probabilities: 60% Bullish vs. 40% Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum is Losing Ground—60% Bullish vs. 40% Bearish Probability
The bullish case for Bitcoin has weakened slightly due to several conflicting signals across different timeframes. Here's the breakdown:
Bullish Factors:
🚫 Monthly PCL disrespected
✅ Monthly Bullish FVG respected
🚫 Weekly swing low disrespected
✅ Weekly Bullish FVG respected
✅ Daily Bullish FVG respected
🚫 4H swing low disrespected
🚫 4H swing low swept
Bearish Factors:
✅ Daily swing low respected
✅ Daily swing high respected
✅ Daily Bearish FVG respected
🚫 Daily Bullish FVG disrespected (so far)
Given the mixed arguments, it’s crucial to wait for further confirmation before making any moves. Strong economic factors expected this week could shift the market. Don’t get liquidated—patience is key! 🧘♂️ Master it to stay profitable. 🏆
Volalility
Key points Iron Condor ES/SPX 09 May 2022Current expected movement from IV = 2.08%
At the same tim we estimate with a 80.2% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.97% for this the market will stay within
TOP 4167
BOT 4006
All of this being calculated with the opening value candle of today
From the fundamental point of view we have not big volatility news today
With all of this in mind, we can try a scalp entry for today with the next setup
Iron Condor for 0 DTE ES
Call Sell 4160
Call Buy 4185
Put Sell 4010
Put Buy 3985
This would give us an expectency of 0.41$ per each 1$ lost
At the same time we have a 80.2% probability so 80.2% * 0.41$ - 20%*1$ = 12.88$ ROI after 100 trades