Get started

Volatility-tracking

Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Evening -- Happy July 4th to everyone Let us review last week as we look towards the next in anticipation of the trade deal deadline that looms. I had a target on the SP:SPX of $6,253.59 and the weekly high was $6,284.65. The candle on the short week opened at its low of $6,019.21 and closed $6,233.08 making the weekly range +$213.87. This represents closest to HV63 over IV which stated +/-$253.26 and a 'strength of IV' that was 295% . Again the weekly high is above our range target, but my volatility will always be measured close-to-close. Now as we look towards this week -- IV (13.85%) has shifted upwards slightly with HV10 (7.36%) hinged down and still lowering. In fact, I have bi-weekly volatility as 97.28% 'coiled' to it's sliding yearly low of 4.64% -- HV21 (9.92%) is closer to what IV states with it being 'coiled' 96.61% to it's respective sliding yearly lows. In my opinion, volatility still has room to consolidate slightly as markets rotate higher. I think we can see upwards $6,327.73, but slowly over the course of the week with the last tariff uncertainty getting out of the way. From there, going into mid July we may need to see a volatility spike. The HV10 range I am watching holds a 'strength of IV' entering this week of only 53% -- this shows the price per move is expensive by almost twice as much. Till next time, know your ABCs, have a great long weekend, and stay hedge! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- ☀️☀️☀️ What an amazing last full week of June that was as we pulled out of corrective territory and onto new ATHs with the SP:SPX body of its weekly candle moving +3.41% -- bottom to top. The weekly move open-to-close was +$98.40 as that is how I gauge my volatility metrics. This in comparison is closest in value to IV entering the week as it was stating an implied move of +/-$102.08, which was a volatility read of 16.34% -- As you see in reflection of the weekly chart below and within daily candle structure, price action moved upwards all week surpassing quarterly marks. This in turn is raising short-term volatility and lowering monthly averages as we rotate higher. Here is the weekly price action of the TVC:VIX from a 5m perspective. This is showing the EOW trend break upwards drilling the indices back down -- A healthy pullback after being seemingly over-extended. This happened during the news cycle release of the U.S. and Canada reciprocal tariff disagreement. Hopefully this settles over the weekend and we rotate higher into the 4th of July week. Now looking towards this holiday week -- We have the SP:SPX IV (13.29%) after melting during the ATHs move previously -3.09% -- This places IV on the sliding yearly spectrum at the 39% down range showing increasing discount in yearly value. Remember, If you form option positions IV affects VEGA 1% at a time and the algos bid down IV in contracting markets as they rotate higher. HV10 (12.46%) has hinged down and still is contractive per IV prediction but, increasing in comparison with a ' strength of IV ' now showing 94% entering this week. As the TVC:VIX has closed at $16.32 -- I believe that there is still a little room to extend potentially upwards to the HV10 weekly range of $6253.59. Currently, the SP:SPX YTD return is +4.96% with weekly momentum pointing up and room for volatility to still decrease. If this mark is reached it would put the YTD return at +6.52%. Very feasible and realistic being halfway through the year and going into the 4th of July 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Watch as we climb the wall of worries around us. This would in turn decrease short-term volatility more maybe even to a bottoming point and IV would melt during the rotation upwards with the VIX slowly grinding down. Come back next week as we review what happened within the implied ranges posted and overlook the volatility potentially bottoming and looking towards a VIX spike in the near future. Remember to know your ABCs and stay hedged against your bias! CHEERS!
CBOE:VIXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
2
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY . Here we will step back with the year-to-date TVC:VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges. Let us begin -- Last week the S&P500 -- with the SP:SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24. Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties. Understandable of course. Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential. With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course. I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week. That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
4
Nvidia - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Afternoon! Let's talk NASDAQ:NVDA Last week we saw HV10 (24.96%) increase above HV21 (23.67%) after starting what could be a regression towards HV63 (39.13%). IV (37.37%) entering this week reflects within 6% of it's sliding yearly lows and resonating around quarterly means. This could be showing a fair prediction to the regression potential and a volatility spike. Here, the RSI has room but is elevated and hinged down with the MACD crossed red -- lagging indicators showing trend reversal. If bi-weekly values can find regression to quarterly; the implied range I would be watching is $135.47 - $148.47 with IV increasing affecting premium positively. If the grind up continues slowly, expect IV to melt and be watching for contracting HV10 ranges between $137.82 - $146.12 -- Keep an eye on the news, it will ever affect the broader markets and any underlying within. Follow along through the week as we track our volatility prediction -- I will pull the charts back in at the end of the week to review! CHEERS!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by splitmyIVandmelt
BITx - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Morning -- Happy Father's day to any dad's out there! Let's took a weekly look at CBOE:BITX -- our 2x leveraged BITSTAMP:BTCUSD fund. Last week, we saw a beautiful gap up to the upper HV63 implied ranges were profit was taken and accelerated selling begin. Our bi-weekly trending values have increased due to the increasing volatility. The weekly candle ended with some body to it, but was mostly flat due to the gap closing with a big wick up. Our IV (85.47%) entering the week is trending within 4% of the sliding yearly lows and seemingly increasing as it tracks near-term trending markets -- HV10 (70.04%) has increased from the movement last week +7.35% and is now +22.17% off sliding yearly lows. As the spring is uncoiling, and bi-weekly regresses towards quarterly means our premium capture erodes and our range expands. I love trading volatility and ranges. The 'strength of IV' here for HV10 is 82% -- so you have to account when positioning that the trending near-term volatility IS INCREASING but IS WEAKER than what is predicted. The 'strength of IV' here for HV63 is 101% -- showing that what is predicted is fairly valued to me on a regression scale. Please -- Pull my chart onto your layout and use my implied ranges and data, follow along through the week on your own screen as we track and measure the volatility -- let's get this conversation started! CHEERS
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
2
iBIT - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for NASDAQ:IBIT IV (43.42%) entering the week sits in the 6th percentile for the year. HV10 (28.24%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 23.43% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 95.19% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -15.81% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows. I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD volatility and risk management. Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect? Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation. If this week we find regression to HV63 (49.26%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about ! This capture can be upwards 5.84% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
BITx - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX IV (86.99%) entering the week sits in the 3rd percentile for the year. HV10 (60.22%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 47.87% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 87.65% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -26.77% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows. I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD volatility and risk management. Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect? Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation. If this week we find regression to HV63 (99.73%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 12.74% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat. For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
CBOE:BITX
by splitmyIVandmelt
iBIT - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Afternoon, Here is my weekly perspective for NASDAQ:IBIT --- IV (48.31%) entering this week is holding in the 24th percent range for the year and has been climbing weekly from putting in new lows at the beginning of the year. We essentially have been seeing rising IV with rising price action, the best of the best. Premium increases from price action climbing and IV rising affects Vega positively increasing premium too. Bi-weekly trends (27.64%) show a cooling off entering the week and contraction under IV, but it might not last long as there could be major macro news in the crypto world at any moment. This could be a big week on continued regression towards quarterly means (51.52%). If this happens the range will continue to expand in my option and hold a +3.21% value per move on premium over stated IV, but weekly trends would be expanding 23.89% -- A huge move. As always -- For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
NASDAQ:IBIT
by splitmyIVandmelt
2
BITx - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Afternoon, Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX IV (96.75%) entering this week is holding in the 18th percent range for the year and has been climbing weekly from putting in new lows at the beginning of the year. We essentially have been seeing rising IV with rising price action, the best of the best. Premium increases from price action climbing and IV rising affects Vega positively increasing premium too. Bi-weekly trends (56.07%) show a cooling off entering the week and contraction under IV, but it might not last long as there could be major macro news in the crypto world at any moment. This could be a big week on continued regression towards quarterly means (104.06%). If this happens the range will continue to expand in my option and hold a +7.31% value per move on premium over stated IV, but weekly trends would be expanding 47.99% -- A huge move. As always -- For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
CBOE:BITX
by splitmyIVandmelt