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Volatilty

XAUUSD Volatility in Focus: Caution Advised for PullbackCurrently, I estimate that XAUUSD is nearing the end of wave iii of wave (v). I present two potential scenarios: In the black label scenario, XAUUSD may continue its upward movement to complete wave iii, with a projected target in the 3,372–3,410 range. However, under the red label scenario, there is a possibility of a short-term correction toward the 3,284–3,301 area before resuming the uptrend toward the same target zone. Traders should closely monitor price action, as increased volatility is likely in the near term.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by herdityawicaksana
1
Short Volatility during rare spikes using leveraged ETF $UVXYOverview Volatility represents how greatly an asset’s prices swing around the mean price. Historically there are rarely brief volatility flare-ups that present trading opportunities. Trying to anticipate volatile events can be costly, because other market participants generally expect the same well known events, and one never knows how big a volatility spike might arise from a given event. Instead if one merely awaits extreme volatility events, which historically are ephemeral, there's a higher probability trade in shorting it. I've thought about this previously, and took the opportunity with Liberation Day to successfully short volatility. Volatility Instrument Selection Choosing an appropriate instrument can aid in the likelihood of a successful short position. Among the options CBOE:UVXY looks attractive for the trade, because it's a leveraged ETF, is highly liquid, and provides options with granular strike prices and expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs are known to decline over time due to Daily rebalancing and compounding effects Volatility drag Cost of leverage Management fees and expenses Path dependency These characteristics of leveraged ETFs provide a structural tailwind to a short position, because the instrument naturally declines over time. This phenomenon easy enough to see on a CBOE:UVXY weekly chart Moreover selection of a liquid product is prudent. At the time of writing CBOE:UVXY has an average daily volume north of $22 million dollars for the past 30 days. Trade execution Execution of the trade starts with recognition of a highly volatile event, this is both technical and discretionary. From there a trader is advised to use their preferred tactics to select entry, stop-loss and exit points. Personally I like to use chart patterns across different timeframes in tandem with Relative Strength Index, and to a lesser extent volume to identify trading setups. I use longer term charts to identify a trend, and shorter timeframe charts to determine entry and exit points. The timeframe(s) depend on the particular instrument and what the charts look like at the time of the trade. During the Liberation Day Volatility Short trade, I've been using 1W, 1D, 4H and 1H charts. The 1H chart has been suitable for entering an exiting trades. Head & Shoulders patterns have manifested both on price and momentum alongside declining volume. I've posted a couple CBOE:UVXY minds along the way. Additional Thoughts Volatility can also be used generally to anticipate moves in other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, crypto and commodities. Using the levels from that last chart fed into successful NASDAQ:TQQQ & NASDAQ:SQQQ trades in the aftermath of Liberation Day.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by quickshiftinn
Buying The Dip / Dollar Cost AveragingI recently published my first script and felt now would be a good time to share something I feel could help some people out. I have been trading since 2021 and it has been an amazing journey. Anyhow, I would consider myself a value based investor and in it for the long term. So as the market takes a dip - now is certainly the time to be buying the dip or dollar cost averaging. The way I see it, if you are going to DCA/Buy The Dip, it might be handy to have access to a tool that is slightly better than just regularly timed investments. Take a look at my indicator and let me know your thoughts. Comment, Like and Follow if you enjoy the strategy and companion indicator.
AMEX:VTILong
by chuckaschultz
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management. Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart) Current Price Zone: Around $528.45 Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b) - Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b) - Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16 Support Levels: - Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short) - Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a) - Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a) - Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18 Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief): - Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level) - Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance) - Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk. Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear): Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support) - Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support) - Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area) - Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals. Thought Process & Final Thoughts The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
1
Path to 100 VIXI wrote this note on TVC:VIX a few days ago: www.tradingview.com And am now expanding it a bit more. As someone who was working middle office during the original 2016 Trump Election, Brexit, during the Taper Tantrum and a few other major events - I want to lay out my principles on trading the VIX because spikes like this bring a lot of "first time" VIX traders to something that trades like NOTHING ELSE in the market. This is not a stock in a short squeeze, this is not a generic index. This is like nothing you've ever traded before. In fact, I'd encourage you to take advantage of TradingView's chart options and instead look at the chart of -1*$TVC:VIX. That alone should give you pause. ---------------------------------- So - let's start with the principles of the finance business as laid out in the masterclass which was the movie "Margin Call" . "John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." 1. Be First. You are not first if you are buying above the historic average of VIX 20-21. If you were buying CBOE:UVXY since Jan 2025, you'd be up 175% right now and likely looking to re-balance into your desired long term asset positions. 2. Be Smarter. * Are you taking into consideration the VIXEX Cycle? * Do you know the effect of VIXEX before or after monthly OpEx? * Do you know the current implied volatility curve of options ON the VIX? * Do you know that of the last 4 times the VIX has hit 50, it went on to 80+ 50% of the time after that? * Yes, I've seen the charts going around about forward S&P X year returns but did you know that after the VIX spike to 80 in October 2008, the market (in a decreasing volatility environment) went on a further 35% decline in the next 4-5 months? * Where is the MOVE? What are the bond indexes & bond volatility measures doing? And if you don't yet understand that equities ALWAYS reacts to what is going on in the rates / yield world... you'll find out eventually. I hope. 3. Cheat When things start going wrong, everyone wants an easy solution. That's why its called a relief rally. It feels like relief - the bottom is in, the worst part is over. But that is what the really big players have the biggest opportunity to play with the day to day environment. They know our heuristics. They encourage the formation of cargo cult style investing whether that's HODL in the cryptocurrencies or Bogleheads in the vanguard ETFs. It's all the same and encourages you to forgot first principles thinking about things like: 1. Is this actually a good price or is it just relatively cheap to recent history? 2. Who's going to have to dilute to survive the next period of tighter lending, import costs from tariffs, or whatever the problem of the day is. 3. VIX correlation - volatility is just a description of the markets. Its not a description of the direction. There is periods where volatility is positively correlated to the price movement (like during earnings beats). Know about this and know when it changes. 4. Etc. Some have pointed out that is more appropriately a measure of liquidity in the SPX. When VIX is low, that means there is lots of "friction" to price movement. It means that there is tons of orders on the L2 book keeping the current price from moving in any direction too quickly. When VIX is high, that means there is very low "friction" to price movement. It means there are very few orders on the L2 book and market makers can "cheat" by appearing to create a low volume rally and then rug pull that price movement very quickly (not via spoofing, more just dynamic management of gamma & delta hedging requirements). Additionally - volume itself becomes deceptive. Volume is just indicating that a trade happened. Its not telling you to what degree the spread between the bid and ask has blown out to 1x, 2x, or 5x normal and that trades are executing only at the highest slippage prices in that spread. All of these things are considerations that the market makers can use to make a "buy the dip" situation that works heavily to their advantage. TLDR: "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker" ---------------------------------- So - why / when would VIX go to 100? In 2020, its easy to forget that a culmination of things stopped the crash at -35%. * March 17, 2020 VIXEX wiped out a significant amount of long volatility positions. * March 20, 2020 Opex wiped out a significant proportion of the short term put positions * March 20, 2020 Fed Reserve announced to provide "enhanced" (i.e. unlimited) liquidity to the markets starting Monday March 23, 2020. * April 6th, 2020 Peak of Implied Volatility (point where options "most expensive") - which meant that buyers / sellers started providing more & more liquidity following this point. In 2025, we have yet to see: * Any motion towards intervention from the Fed for liquidity. * Any motion from the significant fundamental investors (we're not close to an attractive P/S or P/E on most stocks for Buffett & Co to start buying) * Any significant motion from companies on indicating strategies about capital raises, layoffs, or other company level liquidity reactions. * Any "reset" of options in either volatility or hedging. Numbers below as of April 9, 2025: - SPY 2.8M Put OI for April 17 - VIX 3.5M Call OI for April 16 Just an example but maybe IF we see those clear and NOT get re-bought for May Opex... we might be ready to call a top here at 50 VIX. Otherwise.... we're just at another stop on the path to 100.
TVC:VIX
by from0_to_1
Foundation of Technical Trading: What Makes a Chart Tradable?The Foundation of Technical Trading There is an abundance of information on price charts, technical methods, indicators, and various tools. However, the required first step is to understand basic market structure. Without this foundational knowledge, technical applications risk becoming inconsistent and disconnected from broader market behavior. It is also important to question whether technical charts and tools are effective at all. What makes the market responsive to a trendline, a pattern, or an indicator? And why, at other times, do these tools seem entirely irrelevant? Is the market random? If certain events are predictable, under what conditions can such occurrences be expected? Experiment: Random Charts Here is an illustration of four charts; two showing real price data and two randomly generated. While some visual distortion gives away subtle differences, there are more refined methods to construct this experiment that makes telling the difference between real and random almost impossible. All these charts show viable patterns and possible applications. When presented with these, even experienced people tend to construct narratives, whether or not structure is present. This raises a fundamental question; how can one distinguish real occurrences from coincidental formations on a chart? In case all movements are considered random, then this should indicate that applied methods perform no better than coincidence? Bias and Distortion It’s also important to comprehend the influence our perception. As humans we are wired to find patterns, even in random data, which can lead to various cognitive biases that distort our interpretation. For example, confirmation bias may lead us to focus only on evidence that supports our expectations, while apophenia causes us to see patterns where none exist. Similarly, hindsight bias can trick us into believing past patterns were obvious, which can develop overconfidence in future decisions. Awareness of these biases allows us to approach technical tools and charts with greater objectivity, with more focus on probabilistic methods and calculated risks. Experiment: Random Levels Perform the following experiment; open a chart and hide the price data. Then draw a few horizontal lines at random levels. Then reveal the price again. You’ll notice that price can touch or reverse near these lines, as if they were relevant levels. The same thing can happen with various indicators and tools. This experiment shows how easy it is to find confluence by chance. It also raises an important question, is your equipment and approach to the markets more reliable than random? Market Disorder Financial markets consist of various participants including banks, funds, traders and algorithmic systems. These participants operate with different objectives and across multiple timeframes resulting in a wide range of interpretations of market behavior. Trades are executed for various reasons such as speculation, hedging, rebalancing, liquidation or automation; directional intent could be unclear. For instance, the prior may serve to offset exposure, and portfolio rebalancing could require the execution of large orders without directional intent. Technical and chart-based trading likely makes up a minor segment of the overall market; even within this subset, there is considerable variation in perception and interpretation. There could be differences in timeframe, reference points, pattern relevance and responses to similar information. The market is broader, more complex and less definitive than it appears. The point is that markets contain a high degree of structural disorder, which means most assumptions should be questioned and perceived as estimative. The effect of buying and selling pressure on multiple timeframes sets the foundation for oscillation in price movements, rather than linear and monotonic movements. This pattern of rising and falling in a series of waves sets the points for where the current structure transitions between balance and imbalance. An overall equilibrium between buying and selling pressure results in consolidative price movement, whereas dominance leads to trending or progressive movement. Volatility Distribution To answer the main question: What differentiates real market behavior and charts from random data, and ultimately makes it tradable, is the distribution of volatility. This forms the basis for the phenomenon of volatility clustering, where periods of high volatility tend to follow high volatility, and low volatility follows low volatility. It is rare for the market to shift into a volatile state and then immediately revert to inactivity without some degree of persistence. Research supports the presence of this volatility persistence, though with the important caveat that it does not imply directional intent. Volatility Cycles These phases tend to occur in alternation, known as volatility cycles, which set the foundation for tradable price structures. This sequence consists of a contractive phase, marked by compression in price movements, followed by an expansive phase, characterized by increased volatility and directional movement. The alternation reflects shifts in underlying buying and selling pressure. This behavior offers a practical approach to interpret market behavior. A more detailed explanation of the concept could be explored in a future post. Conclusion While the idea of profitability through technical trading is often questioned, it remains a viable approach when based on sound principles. The edges available to the average trader are smaller and less frequent than commonly presumed. The concepts of volatility and the ability to locate areas of imbalance forms the basis for identifying conditions where market behavior becomes less random and more structured. This sets the foundation for developing technical edges. The content in this post is adapted from the book The Art of Technical Trading for educational purposes.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
VIX - Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity?Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity? An analysis of the most significant VIX spikes (1987-2025) and subsequent stock market performance. The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that reflects the level of fear or uncertainty in the market based on expectations of volatility in the S&P 500 Index. The VIX's 118% surge from April 4 to April 7, 2025 was the fifth largest 3-day surge in market history. This surge 🚀 reflects the high level of uncertainty that has developed in the markets. It is very difficult to make informed investment decisions during such periods. But we can rely on historical patterns. After the 20 largest VIX spikes, the S&P 500 Index has consistently delivered exceptional returns: - After 1 year: 16.5% (vs. 12% in normal periods) - After 3 years: 45.9% (vs. 39.5% in normal periods) - After 5 years: 83.0% (vs. 74.4% in normal periods) The difference in returns over the 4 years is 10.2% above average. Over the past 40 years, there has only been one negative return (the 2007 spike before the financial crisis), while most extreme fear events have become outstanding buying opportunities. For example, the August 2011 spike was followed by an impressive 117% return over the next five years. When market panic reaches extreme levels, institutional capital typically steps in against retail sales, setting the stage for stronger long-term growth. History shows that these moments of maximum fear often represent optimal entry points for patient investors. It is essential to realize that historical patterns do not always hold true in the future. Each crisis has unique characteristics and causes that can lead to different outcomes. These statistics provide good mathematical expectations, not guarantees. This has always been the case in the market, and proper handling of math expectations and risk management are the foundations of profitable strategies. Best regards EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:VIX
by EXCAVO
4
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln
PLTR -- more volatility forecasted into MarchExpecting quick progression to 118$ level as final buy-side wave near term. Looking for renewed significant selling action from that level to retrace price back to pre-earnings levels near 80-85$ Possibility exists (imho) that we fully retrace back to 63-64$ levels by April timeframe, depending on sentiment as we head into next FOMC meeting in mid-March. After that, my cycles analysis indicates we will continue higher toward 120...Therefore, I will be planning on taking profits on put option contracts once underlying share price reaches below 85$, and will plan on scaling into long equity positions on discounts between 64-85$ for the projected subsequent buy wave to 120+
NASDAQ:PLTR
by DaveTradesLive
2
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD): Assessing the Potential BreakoutOver the past few months, the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD) has demonstrated a clear upward trajectory, marked by higher highs and higher lows—a classic sign of sustained bullish sentiment. However, we've seen periods of consolidation and recent volatility - let's take a look at its current technical landscape. Current Market Overview: As of January 29, 2025, the NASDAQ 100 is trading at approximately 21,600, a level that has served as a significant pivot point in recent trading sessions. A decisive move above this threshold could validate the ongoing uptrend and open the door to further gains. Key Levels to Monitor: Immediate Resistance : The 21,600 level is crucial. A sustained break above this point could signal the continuation of the bullish trend. Support Levels : Should the price retreat, the 21,300 - 21,200 are notable support areas to watch. Recent Developments: The market has recently experienced heightened volatility, notably a sharp dip around January 27, followed by an aggressive recovery. This shows how unpredictable the market can be and hints at continued bullish movement. Strategic Considerations: Breakout Confirmation : A sustained move above 21,600, ideally accompanied by increased trading volume, would provide stronger confirmation of the breakout. Support Retest : If the price successfully breaches the 21,600 resistance, this level could transform into a support zone. A subsequent retest of this level as support could present a compelling entry opportunity for long positions. However , considering the Fed decision and fundamental factors around todays announcement - the most likely scenario would be slightly hawkish or a hawkish pause , which would be somewhat negative for the index. This would allow price to experience a temporary drop back down to the previous support (demand) level of 21,200 before buyers re-engage. Trading Strategies: Long Positions on Breakout Confirmation : A clear break and close above 21,600 could signal a long (buy) entry. Long Positions on Retest of Support : A pullback to the 21,200 support level (assuming it holds) could offer a better opportunity to enter long positions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to conduct your own thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use appropriate risk management techniques and trade responsibly. OANDA:NAS100USD IG:NASDAQ PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
Gold pullback to 2625-2640 zone. Feels like its going up today. If I got pre-emptive about an hour ago calling for Long-gold at 2655 or thereabouts, if that got you a stop out then my sincerest feeling for you and I would like to make it up to you. I have to literally pinch myself every time I take a trade here in currency or patricuarlly gold, becaues volume is reduced until London opens for business. Anyway I will be looking to perform a Long trade here a bit later, but with 1 trade already down and that position I put a Stop-on and I exited the trade at 0.5194 I think it was. Another chart here the 4HR. Gold has now made a fairly deep and up and down move since Thursday, causing just the right about of volatility and momentum to fire-up a deep 4hr reversal trade. These work on depth, generally the deeper the better to get that spring back through 30 on the RSI and 20 on Stochastic's, both are great, standard settings. To confirm that the long trade is the real deal I will be looking for a big spike in volume, increaasing more than 50 momentum on Rsi and/or 20 on Stochastics'. But the best way to pul the trigger on a deep RSI reversal trade is to do all of the above monitoring good increases in momentum and volume, watch only as it passed above 30 / 20 on the Oscillators and on a lowertimeframe I suggest a 3 minute chart setup an EMA 9 and EMA 50 and BUY GOLD when the 9EMA bullishly crosses up and over the 50. Higher the time frame the stronger this Cross becomes but its the lower time frames where all of the action begins. The most accurate winning strategy for this type of trade would be on the daily but its a bit early for that big TF. Buy the pullback in Gold. Watch for LIVE divergence on the 4HR for things like price bottoming and in the volatility is on the up and up in oscillators like RSI/STOCH/MACHd. SL under a swing low on a 5 min timeframe. TP 2680 is the final target. Take partial profits at the tops of zones.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
2
TotalCrypto Market Pullback: What's Next for the Bull Run?Hello, crypto enthusiasts! How are you today? I hope you're doing well and not letting this price action ruin your day. Times like these can be tough if you're unprepared or trading with emotions instead of following a proper plan or system. This chart represents the **Total Market Cap** of cryptocurrencies, and as we can clearly see, it's heading down. Today marks the second consecutive day of downside price action, accompanied by increased volume. Yesterday was the ideal exit point for the long trade that started after the U.S. elections. The signal was simple: **price pierced the PSAR**, indicating that the trade should be closed. While this index doesn’t represent an actual tradable position, it reflects the system's logic. Since this index aggregates the price action of all crypto assets, its decline suggests that most crypto assets are also experiencing downside pressure. While exceptions exist, this is the general trend. Technical Analysis with Oscillators - **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index has dropped from overbought levels (above 70) and is now at **~52**, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend. - **MACD**: The MACD line is trending down and crossing below the signal line, which indicates bearish momentum. This crossover often signals a further downside. - **OBV**: The On-Balance Volume is showing a decline, confirming that selling pressure is dominating the market, supporting the bearish move. What’s next? - **First Target**: The 2021 top, marked by the black line, where we may see a reaction. - **Second Target**: The **0.236 Fibonacci retracement level**, which provides another possible support area. Of course, nothing is ever certain in trading. Tomorrow, the market could rally and ignore all current signals, but for now, the price appears to be trending downward. A few reminders: - In crypto, things rarely go the way we want. - Stay prepared for every scenario and keep your portfolio ready to re-enter the market. - Avoid letting hope and fear dictate your decisions—they won’t lead to profit. I'll keep monitoring the markets and share my thoughts as they develop. If you found this analysis useful, feel free to like, share, or comment below. And as always: **stay safe and keep calm!**
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by vagada
#NIfty50 Outlook for upcoming week 9-13th Dec, Nifty Rallies, Bu The Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a high note, closing at 24,677, a significant 550-point surge from the previous week. The index oscillated wildly, touching a high of 24,857 and a low of 24,008. As predicted, the index faced selling pressure around the 25,000 level, a critical resistance zone that triggered a downward trend in late October. For the upcoming week, the Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 24,100 to 25,000. A sustained break above 25,000 could propel the index towards 25,250. However, a pullback to retest support levels is likely before the next upward move. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index gained 1% to close at 6,090. Key resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6,142 and 6,225, while support levels are 6,013 and 5,963.let's see if US market this week also support world market or not.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
MCHP Long Setup: Oversold Rebound w/ Rising Volatility & VolumeMicrochip Technology (MCHP) is presenting a promising long opportunity for a temporary rebound, supported by three strong technical factors: Slow Stochastic in Extreme Oversold Territory : The indicator is below 20, signaling excessive selling pressure, often linked to potential short-term recoveries. Rising Volatility Index (LSVI) : The significant increase in volatility suggests the market is entering a phase of larger price movements, increasing the probability of a sharper rebound. Increasing Volume with Reduced Decline: Recent candles show higher trading volume accompanied by a slowing rate of decline, indicating potential buyer activity and a technical correction from the recent sharp drop. With the price near a critical support zone and a target identified at $65.00 (10% gain), this setup offers a compelling risk-reward ratio for short-term traders. If the price crosses above the red line, it may reach $71.00 (20% gain). Watching for confirmations such as a %K/%D crossover on the Slow Stoch and sustained buying volume will be key to validating this thesis. Disclaimer : Always manage risk carefully, particularly in high-volatility environments.
NASDAQ:MCHPLong
by felipegomesbwm
1
#Nifty50 Volatile week ahead, outlook for 2-6th Dec 2024The Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a strong note, closing at 24,131, up 225 points from the previous week. The index oscillated between a high of 24,354 and a low of 23,873, staying within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined to a range of 24,750 to 23,600 . A breach of these levels could trigger significant market volatility. A closer look at the weekly chart reveals a potential W-pattern formation. To complete this pattern, a pullback towards the 23,500-23,600 support zone is necessary. Whether this pullback materializes next week will be crucial to watch. S&P 500 Breaks Resistance, Sets Stage for Further Gains The S&P 500 index finally managed to breach the strong Fibonacci resistance level of 6,013. If it can sustain above the 6,000 mark, a move towards the 6,142 level, representing a 1.5% upside, is likely. Such a move could provide a positive impetus to global markets. However, a failed breakout could lead to a 2% correction, potentially testing the 5,914-5,900 support zone. Investors should be prepared for both scenarios.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Bitcoin's Volatility Reflects a Maturing MarketOne of the key drivers behind CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s rapid climb toward $100k is the growing narrative around its use as a hedge against macro risks and a reliable store of value. With governments beginning to explore strategic Bitcoin reserves, the risk of not holding the asset is becoming increasingly apparent. A common counterpoint to this narrative is Bitcoin’s historically high volatility, which some argue undermines its role as a store of value. However, as shown in the chart, CRYPTOCAP:BTC volatility (pink) has consistently trended downward over time despite periodic spikes. In fact, Bitcoin's volatility is now lower than that of NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AMD This signals a maturing market, and as institutional—and now national—capital flows into Bitcoin, we expect its performance to stabilize further. With volatility diminishing and adoption increasing, Bitcoin’s role as a wealth preservation tool will likely continue to solidify
BLong
by IntoTheBlock
2
Navigating High Volatility Periods in TradingMarket volatility is a critical aspect of trading, and during certain periods—particularly around significant news events—this volatility becomes more pronounced. The graphic titled *"The Cycle of Market Volatility"* effectively captures the stages involved in how markets react and stabilize after major news events. These events, such as red folder news releases, economic reports, and elections, are pivotal moments that traders need to approach with both caution and strategy. The Cycle of Market Volatility 1. News Events Occur High-impact news, known as *red folder news*, includes economic data releases such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), central bank interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and major political developments like elections. These events are known for triggering swift market movements and increased volatility. 2. Market Reaction Once the news breaks, markets tend to react swiftly. Prices may shoot up or down as traders digest the new information and position themselves accordingly. The initial reaction is often driven by the big institutional players, and retail traders are frequently caught up in the momentum. 3. Media Amplification After the initial market response, the media plays a significant role in amplifying the event. Analysts, news outlets, and social media start discussing the potential ramifications, which often leads to further market movement. Speculation and public sentiment can magnify the volatility. 4. Trader Response As traders react to both the news and the media coverage, there can be an increase in trading volumes. Some traders might attempt to capitalize on the price swings, while others might exit their positions to avoid losses. Emotions like fear and greed tend to dominate in this phase, making it essential for traders to stick to their strategies. 5. Market Stabilization Eventually, after the initial surge in price movement and emotional trading subsides, the market begins to stabilize. Once the news has been fully priced in and the dust settles, the markets may find equilibrium, and normal trading conditions resume—until the next major event. Trading During High Volatility: Pros and Cons Trading during high volatility events such as red folder news releases and elections can be both rewarding and dangerous. Let's explore some of the **pros and cons** of trading during these periods: Pros Large Profit Opportunities Volatility creates sharp price movements, and for traders who can accurately predict market direction, these swings can translate into significant profits in a short period. For example, interest rate announcements or jobs data releases can cause currencies to move hundreds of pips in minutes. Increased Liquidity High-impact events often bring more participants into the market, leading to increased liquidity. This means trades can be executed more quickly, and spreads (the difference between bid and ask prices) may narrow, offering better trading conditions for short-term traders. Clear Trends Often after a red folder event, markets establish clearer trends. Whether it’s a sharp bullish or bearish move, traders may find it easier to follow the trend and capitalize on the momentum rather than dealing with the choppier markets typically seen in low-volatility periods. Cons Whipsaw Risk One of the biggest dangers of trading during high volatility is the potential for whipsaw movements. The market may initially react one way, only to reverse sharply after further analysis or new information comes to light. This can lead to traders being stopped out or suffering losses as prices swing unpredictably. Wider Spreads While liquidity can increase, the initial reaction to major news can cause spreads to widen dramatically. This can eat into potential profits and make it difficult for traders to enter or exit positions at favorable prices. Emotional Trading News events tend to stir up emotions in traders—especially fear and greed. These emotions can cloud judgment, causing traders to deviate from their trading plans, make impulsive decisions, or over-leverage themselves in pursuit of quick gains. Gaps in the Market High-impact news can cause gaps in the market, where price jumps from one level to another without trading in between. This can be hazardous for traders who are in open positions, as stop-loss orders may not be filled at the expected price, leading to larger losses than anticipated. Key Red Folder Events and How to Approach Them Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Perhaps the most influential news events, interest rate decisions by central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank can cause massive volatility in Forex markets. Traders need to watch not just the decision itself but also the accompanying statements and guidance for future monetary policy. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Released monthly, the U.S. NFP report often leads to sharp movements in the USD and related currency pairs. The NFP provides insights into the health of the U.S. economy and is closely watched by traders around the world. Elections and Political Events Elections, referendums, and major geopolitical developments (such as US elections last week) can cause sustained volatility in markets. Traders should be particularly cautious around these events as outcomes can be highly unpredictable, and market reactions may be extreme. Inflation Reports Inflation data can significantly impact market expectations for interest rates, which in turn influences currency values. Central banks tend to adjust their monetary policy based on inflation trends, making these reports crucial for traders. How to Trade Volatile Events Safely Have a Clear Plan Don’t enter trades during volatile periods without a well-thought-out strategy. Make sure to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels and be prepared for sudden market reversals. Consider Waiting for the Dust to Settle Instead of trading the immediate market reaction, some traders prefer to wait until the news has been fully digested. By waiting for clearer trends to form after the event, traders can reduce their risk of getting caught in whipsaw price movements. Practice Proper Risk Management With greater volatility comes greater risk, so it’s crucial to limit your exposure. Reduce your position sizes and avoid over-leveraging during these times. Risk management is vital to surviving and thriving in high-volatility environments. Stay Informed Understanding the context behind major news events is critical. Following economic calendars, staying updated on geopolitical developments, and listening to expert analysis can help traders navigate high-volatility markets more effectively. Conclusion Trading during high volatility periods can present both opportunities and risks. While the potential for quick profits is tempting, the unpredictability of the markets during these times requires discipline, a solid strategy, and strong risk management. Understanding the *Cycle of Market Volatility* can help traders better anticipate how markets react to red folder news and major events, allowing them to make more informed trading decisions.
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
Options: Why the Odds Are Stacked Against YouThe Hidden Challenges of Options Trading: Options trading may seem like an exciting way to profit from market movements, but beneath the surface lies a trading environment that is heavily biased against individual traders. Many retail investors jump into options trading unaware of the many disadvantages they face, making it more of a gamble than a calculated investment. In this post, we’ll explore the major challenges that make options trading so difficult for individual traders and why you need more than luck to succeed. 1. The Odds Are Biased: Complex Algorithms Unlevel the Playing Field The first thing to understand is that the playing field is not even. Professional traders and market makers use complex algorithms that evaluate a wide range of factors—volatility, market conditions, historical data, time decay, news and more—before they even think about entering a trade. These systems are designed to assess risks, manage exposure, and execute trades with a precision that most individual traders simply can’t match. For an individual trader, manually analyzing these factors or using basic tools available online is nearly impossible. By the time you’ve analyzed one factor, the market may have already shifted. The reality is that unless you have access to these advanced algorithmic systems, you're trading with a massive handicap. 2. Market Makers Hold the Upper Hand: Your Trades Are Their Game Market makers play a critical role in options trading by providing liquidity. However, they also hold an unbeatable advantage. They see both sides of the trade, control the bid-ask spreads, and use their position to ensure they’re on the winning side more often than not. For them, it’s not about making speculative bets; it’s about managing risk and profiting from the flow of orders they receive. When you trade options, you're often trading against these market makers, and their strategies are designed to maximize their advantage while minimizing their risk. This means your trades are, in essence, a bad gamble from the start. The house always wins, and in this case, the house is the market maker. 3. They Will Fool You Every Time: Bid-Ask Spreads and the Math You Don’t See One of the most overlooked challenges in options trading is understanding the bid-ask spread. This spread represents the difference between the price you can buy an option (ask) and the price you can sell it (bid). While this may seem straightforward, it’s an area where professionals easily outsmart retail traders. Advanced traders and market makers use complex mathematical models to manage and manipulate these spreads to their advantage. If you don’t have the mathematical skills to properly evaluate whether the spread is fair or skewed, you’re setting yourself up to overpay for options, leading to unnecessary losses. 4. Information and Tools: A Professional-Only Advantage Another critical challenge is the vast difference in information and tools available to retail traders versus professionals. Institutional traders have access to data streams, proprietary tools, and execution platforms that the average trader can only dream of. They can monitor market sentiment, analyze volatility in real-time, and execute trades at lightning speed, often milliseconds faster than any retail investor. These tools give professionals an enormous edge in identifying trends, hedging positions, and managing risk. Without them, individual traders are flying blind, trying to compete in an arena where the best information is reserved for the pros. 5. Volatility and Time Decay: The Ultimate Account Killers Two of the most critical factors in options trading are volatility and time decay (known as theta). These are the silent killers of options accounts, and pros use them to their advantage. Volatility: When volatility increases, option prices go up, which might sound great. However, volatility is unpredictable, and when it swings in the wrong direction, it can destroy your position’s value almost overnight. Professionals have sophisticated strategies to manage and hedge against volatility; most individual traders don’t. Time Decay: Time is constantly working against you in options trading. Every day that passes, the value of an option slowly erodes, and as expiration approaches, this decay accelerates. For most retail traders, this is a ticking time bomb. Pros, on the other hand, know how to structure trades to profit from time decay, leaving amateurs at a disadvantage. Conclusion: Trading Options Is No Easy Game The challenges of options trading are real and significant. Between the advanced algorithms, the market makers’ advantages, the mathematical complexities of bid-ask spreads, and the tools and information reserved for professionals, the odds are stacked against you. Add to that the constant threat of volatility and time decay, and it’s clear that options trading is a difficult and often losing game for individual traders. If you’re thinking about jumping into options trading, it’s crucial to understand the risks involved and recognize that the deck is stacked. To succeed, you need more than just a basic understanding—you need tools, strategy, and a deep awareness of how the pros operate. Without that, you're gambling, not trading.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by CF_444
BTC Bullish Outlook Based on BVIV Indicators (Oct 2024)Overview: I’m seeing a strong bullish signal for BTC based on the latest data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) and related indicators. Here’s why I believe the current setup favors a potential move to the upside. Technical Analysis: BVIV (Volatility Index): The BVIV is trending lower, signaling that implied volatility is cooling off. Historically, declining volatility often precedes price stabilization, which can be a precursor to a bullish breakout. While the Z-score hasn't crossed below 0 yet, the trend suggests that this could soon happen, reinforcing the idea that the market is bottoming out. ATR Percentage: The ATR% is nearing the midline, and a break above it could indicate the start of increasing price action. This typically signals momentum building up for a larger directional move. Given that volatility is cooling off, I interpret this as a bullish signal for BTC. Z-Score of RSI: The Z-score of RSI has yet to cross below 0, but it is approaching the threshold. Once it does, it would further confirm the dissipation of overbought conditions and signal that bearish momentum is fading, adding strength to the bullish case. Macro Factors Supporting BTC: Institutional Adoption: With Bitcoin ETFs progressing toward approval and increasing institutional interest, BTC is poised to benefit from a shift in market sentiment. Global Liquidity Trends: Central banks have recently softened their stance on aggressive rate hikes, improving liquidity conditions for risk-on assets like BTC. This shift could support a price recovery. Safe-Haven Narrative: As inflation remains a concern, Bitcoin could reclaim its narrative as a store of value, particularly if traditional assets struggle amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. Post-Halving Cycle: Bitcoin is now several months into its post-halving phase (April 2024), a period that has historically seen significant price appreciation as supply constraints kick in. We could see this dynamic continue to play out, especially as the market anticipates further price gains in the months to come. Conclusion: Based on the alignment of these technical indicators and broader macroeconomic factors, I believe BTC is poised for a bullish breakout. While implied volatility is decreasing, rising ATR% suggests momentum is building for a strong move. I’ll be watching for confirmation of the Z-score crossing below 0 on the BVIV and ATR% breaking above the midline for additional conviction.
VOLMEX:BVIVLong
by LordGiorgioCapital
BTC Beginning of the Month Downward VolatilityBYBIT:BTCUSDT Seems we typically experience some downward volatility in the first week of each month since June. I certainly have noticed a trend: July 4/5 bottom, Aug 5 bottom, Sep 6 bottom. Let's see what the rest of the week has in store for us. -- -- -- -- Using the 50 period on the 12H for the ROC it seems we could be near a local top which has shown some tops/ bottoms in the past during this range. The blue boxes represent the beginning week of the months. YOY global liquidity is on the rise due to China easing significantly.
by bhx10