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Volatilty

QQQ is showing to be rather volatileQQQ is showing to be less predictable and prone to false breakouts Last week QQQ performed a two day long false breakout above before retreating Today we see QQQ again break below its downward trend. breaking below a downward trend is usually followed by a course correction back into the normal trading zone QQQ is proving to be volatile and thus difficult to define when a trend is actually reversing or just another fake out that takes our money.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ratchet-mint
Option Chain Before Earnings - $NVDA huge CALL skewThis week, keep an eye on NASDAQ:NVDA , which will release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Here are this week’s earnings releases implemented by the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator for Tradingview: 08/28 Wednesday after market close: NVDA , CRWD , CRM 08/29 Thursday after market close: MRVL The Options Overlay indicates that NVDA's call skew is above 55% at 54DTE, meaning that CALL options are priced 55% higher than PUT options for the binary expected move distance . This suggests that the market is pricing in a strong upward move. The yellow curve represents the binary expected move, while the blue curve shows the 16-delta OTM options. The green rectangle highlights the area where you can potentially profit from the butterfly trade if the earnings report meets bullish market expectations. Upward price levels: 7/8 - 138 8/8 - 150 Downward price levels: 6/8 - 125 5/8 - 112 If you agree with the market’s bullish sentiment, one of the best R:R trades might be a directional NVDA call butterfly. You can buy it for $109 with the nearest Friday expiration, with a maximum (theoretical) profit of nearly $900. It’s worth executing this trade before the earnings announcement. Note that the green dashed line is theoretical; while it's not a traditional trendline according to classic TA, the long-term upward trend is still quite clear Expiry: Aug 30 Legs: 1x140C -2x150C + 1x160C Net debit: ~$100 Max profit: $890
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TanukiTrade
How Experienced Traders Navigate VolatilityIn today’s turbulent markets, it is a timeless reminder to discuss volatility, how experienced traders can navigate volatility and manage their risk, and why it’s important to always be prepared. Recently, we saw dramatic price action with the USD/JPY pair influenced by the Bank of Japan’s policies or even gold’s march to all-time highs against the Dollar. In this post, we’ll be discussing the art and science of volatility in forex markets and aim to remind all traders about what it is and how to deal with it. Understanding Forex Volatility Volatility is quite simple, despite sounding complex. At its core, volatility measures how much a currency’s value deviates from its average. High volatility means more significant price swings from its average and low volatility means less significant price swings or a lack thereof. Now that you understand the basics, let’s move on to the next concept – trading around volatility and the associated risks. Trading in Volatile Markets Experienced traders know that volatility will spike at some point in a market cycle. Throughout market history there have been many examples of this, and volatility spikes can correspond with market crashes, unexpected economic figures, and major news events, such as elections or wars. These volatile moments may present opportunities to the prepared trader, but it is also equally important to manage your risks in these scenarios. Therefore, the first step to this is crucial: be fully equipped for it. Know The Risks Experienced traders can find potential opportunities in volatility, as mentioned above, but it also means more risk because of potentially higher spreads, faster and unexpected price movements, and larger percentage moves in either direction. That’s why it’s important to assess your risk tolerance before diving in, and once again, be prepared for volatility to strike at any moment. Technical Indicators for Volatility There are several technical indicators that you can employ on your charts to measure volatility in the currency pair that you’re analyzing. We’ve compiled a small list below to get you started, but please keep in mind that there are many more to share in an upcoming post here on TradingView, so please stay tuned for more updates from us: Bollinger Bands: Measures and displays a currency pair’s standard deviation. Average True Range (ATR): Shows the average range of symbols over specific periods of time. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures price change and size. We Know Volatility We’ve seen booms and busts, and presidents come and go over our 20+ years working in forex markets, but throughout that time we’ve remained steadfast, providing traders with the education, resources, and tools they need. That’s why we publish content like this to ourus official TradingView profile – be sure to follow along.
Education
by FOREXcom
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move. Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100. If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings. I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings. But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
NYSE:BABA
by TanukiTrade
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike. It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion. The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later. In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
TVC:VIX
by TradeVibez
VIX Remains Rangebound ....for nowThe VIX remains rangebound and in very good territory all things considering geopolitically and globally. No one can predict the future with 100% certainty but as long as there isn’t any earth-shattering news, fear will probably remain low, given the exception of U.S. election shenanigans coming up. Be aware here that my prediction is that at the last second (and really when it is far too late) they will pull Biden out of the race. Many will not be expecting this (though, I am astounded at how they will not) and it will cause massive volatility in our markets again before settling down. But we have all summer and into the fall before we begin to see some of this occur.
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
EUR/USD week 15 analysis/outlookLast week, the EUR/USD market was a whirlwind of activity, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. The week began with bullish momentum, as buyers took charge and pushed prices higher. However, by midweek, the market experienced a dramatic shift, with increased selling pressure leading to sharp declines in the EUR/USD pair. Despite the tumultuous nature of the market, traders were presented with ample opportunities to capitalize on the volatility. Profit levels soared during periods of heightened activity, particularly on Wednesday, when profit levels far exceeded expectations. However, the increased volatility also posed significant challenges, with rapid price movements catching many traders off guard. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate continued volatility in the EUR/USD market. While there may be some attempts at recovery, the overall sentiment remains uncertain, with the potential for further downside pressure. Traders should remain cautious and vigilant, closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
by RobertD7723
Yemi_Fx1 | BEARISH SETUP ON AUDJPY Maintaining a sell bias on AUDJPY based on the presence of a well-defined sell structure. On the 1-hour timeframe (1HTF) shows the bearish bias is further supported by a potential continuation pattern in the form of an ascending wedge, with price currently testing resistance. Be aware that today's high-impact Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release could cause price to break out of the ascending wedge resistance before moving in it main direction. I anticipate a potential third touch of the ascending wedge's resistance. If price rejects this level, we can look for a confirmation shorting signal(A flag )on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15-minute chart) to enter the trade. If you found this helpful please support your fellow trader with a like .
Short
by Yemi_Fx1
❤️GOLD pulls back before $2,100❤️❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold is taking a breather after testing the three-month high at $2,088 in early Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar is looking to find its feet alongside the US Treasury bond yields, as markets resort to repositioning ahead of the high-impact economic events from the United States this week. 💲BUY / SELL SIGNAL UPDATES SHORTLY💲 Follow channel for regular updates Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE Gold pulls back before re-attempting $2,100 ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by My_Forex_Team
XAUUSD FOMC UP then Downtrend❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold (XAU/USD) rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), firmly establishing itself above the $2,025 mark, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued U.S. dollar, with risk-averse sentiment on Wall Street likely reinforcing the metal’s advance. 💲BUY GOLD 💲 💲SELL GOLD 💲 Signal Updates in chart. Followers continuously receive update. Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE FOMC MINUTES IN FEW HOURS ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by My_Forex_Team
SPX - A day in a life of a short trader Even if we had the FED meeting today - It was a clear and visible that selling pressure will lead the way. SPX started with a gap down and showed no attempt to close the gap at open or within first hour (initial balance). Right after intial balance we broke wit lower Bouhmidi-Band indicating more selling pressure to come. After two attempts to regain the first lower BB we saw in the last 30 minutes of trading more sell orders coming in and confirmation for trend continuation. At the end we close below of 2 sigma Bouhmidi-Band. SPX lost 1,6% at the end.
SP:SPXShort
by SalahBouhmidi
Mock Up Price Action for BTC | Near-Mid Term (12HR)Mock Up Price Action for BINANCE:BTCUSDT | Near-Mid Term (12HR) - Watching and waiting for THE opportunities to enter short - Anticipating highly volatile but still overall bullish upcoming week into end of month January before early February and throughout a proper market correction and pullback of BTC and top 200 ALTs - Accumulating small and micro cap ALTs to hedge against market correction/pullback period to begin in earnest within the next 30 days and lasting up to and through the BTC halving event in April - KUCOIN:VELOUSDT KUCOIN:VRAUSDT KUCOIN:TELUSDT BITTREX:BAXUSDT KUCOIN:BLOKUSDT are some of my main picks, in order of preference, all of which with massive profit potential within the next 90 days - With any luck, these small/micro cap ALTs will run over the next 75 days, while BTC and the rest of the broader market top 100-200 ALTs by market cap take a nose dive into the dirt and cool down for a while - End result, flush with profits from small/micro cap plays, at time when my primary investment interest coins like OKX:CSPRUSDT and BINANCE:XRPUSDT are at discount prices, for the last time, before the Crypto bull market starts in earnest May/June timeframe Personal Approach & Base Chart Setup - Stacked Parallel Channels for Grid of Confluence Points - High Time Frame (HTF) Fib Extensions, Retracements, & Time Cycles - Red Filled Horizontal Rectangles between areas of major Fib level from Extensions and Retracements - Teal Filled Horizontal Rectangles are areas of major support and price points for further DCA long order accumulation - Price Label Callout with Red Circle highlighting points of interest where I'd consider making a trade - I will consistently monitor and adjust taking into consideration long/mid/near term price action and market conditions/news Additional Remarks I don't think BTC is done yet. I think that the CME Futures on BTC that are set to expire end of month, have too much money on the table with bets around 50k and 60k. I think we're in the midst of bear trap soon to be turned to be bull trap, and a ridiculously volatile period up and down with retail traders positioned to get hit hard. I'll be on the sideline steadily accumulating my top 40 altcoins list to be held for the next 8 to 12 months. For my portfolio right now leading into the next 90 days, I currently have a heavier skew in active positions for Small Cap and Micro Cap ALTs like VELO VRA BAX and TEL which we know and have seen time and time again always perform well when broader market as a whole starts to pull back and money flows out of large and mid caps in the top 200, into guess what, small and micro caps that underperformed the market till now. Once a heavy market correction begins, nothing will be immune, and I'd expect all things to pull back.. However I believe these small and micro cap alts poised for bullish runs through April/May, will not be hit as hard, and will most certainly bounce back faster, harder, and likely this bounce back will kick off in earnest very big bullish movements for these. My Top Picks to Weather the Impending Storm VELO INVERSE VELO VRA INVERSE VRA BAX INVERSE BAX TEL INVERSE TEL
by Trevictus
2
Educational: A case for low volatility 🔹 INTRODUCTION A prevalent saying in the trading world is that you need high volatility to make money in the markets. However, this statement needs to be more accurate. While high volatility is, in fact, necessary, it is very much based on perspective, and there are many cases where an extremely volatile market will be your downfall. 🔹 UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUE The image above is an example of what a highly volatile market looks like. There are substantial moves and constant reversals. If you trade using traditional methods such as trend following, the majority will struggle to earn, executing in highly volatile markets. In highly volatile markets, the odds of reaching your profit target drop significantly, and this is because the market could reverse at any time. You will also often hear that scalpers strive in these kinds of markets, which is very much possible, but this is because scalpers often trade at a negative risk ratio and take small gains from the markets. As a result, they can capitalize on those significant moves. See the image below. However, what is happening within that highly volatile candle? One would be surprised to know that the market is not volatile within that candle on a lower timeframe. The market was very smooth and very consistent in its behavior. Notice how the trend was very clear on the lower timeframe? Moreover, there are rarely any large spikes. Well, that is also low volatility, which brings us to another misconception between high and low volatility. Many people are under the assumption that low volatility means the market is not moving much. This is not the case. The market could be moving a lot; however, due to each move being consistent, it is considered low volatility. In other words, there is little variability in the movements. Each candle is within the same range of percentage change. Notice how there are usually no large spikes in the low volatility charts? As long as that does not happen, trending markets can also be considered low volatility. 🔹SOLUTION So, with all this understanding, how does one use high and low volatility to one's advantage? Well, at this point, it is clear. What anyone wants to do is use high volatility to enter the market is going to trend. So, we want to establish high volatility from a much higher timeframe. By doing this, we ensure that the market will trend significantly on a lower timeframe. What we then do is go to a much lower timeframe and execute within that volatility to catch extremely large moves in the market. Often, this will be within a single highly volatile candle. See the image below.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
13