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Volatilty

EUR/USD week 15 analysis/outlookLast week, the EUR/USD market was a whirlwind of activity, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. The week began with bullish momentum, as buyers took charge and pushed prices higher. However, by midweek, the market experienced a dramatic shift, with increased selling pressure leading to sharp declines in the EUR/USD pair. Despite the tumultuous nature of the market, traders were presented with ample opportunities to capitalize on the volatility. Profit levels soared during periods of heightened activity, particularly on Wednesday, when profit levels far exceeded expectations. However, the increased volatility also posed significant challenges, with rapid price movements catching many traders off guard. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate continued volatility in the EUR/USD market. While there may be some attempts at recovery, the overall sentiment remains uncertain, with the potential for further downside pressure. Traders should remain cautious and vigilant, closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
by RobertD7723
Yemi_Fx1 | BEARISH SETUP ON AUDJPY Maintaining a sell bias on AUDJPY based on the presence of a well-defined sell structure. On the 1-hour timeframe (1HTF) shows the bearish bias is further supported by a potential continuation pattern in the form of an ascending wedge, with price currently testing resistance. Be aware that today's high-impact Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release could cause price to break out of the ascending wedge resistance before moving in it main direction. I anticipate a potential third touch of the ascending wedge's resistance. If price rejects this level, we can look for a confirmation shorting signal(A flag )on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15-minute chart) to enter the trade. If you found this helpful please support your fellow trader with a like .
Short
by Yemi_Fx1
❤️GOLD pulls back before $2,100❤️❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold is taking a breather after testing the three-month high at $2,088 in early Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar is looking to find its feet alongside the US Treasury bond yields, as markets resort to repositioning ahead of the high-impact economic events from the United States this week. 💲BUY / SELL SIGNAL UPDATES SHORTLY💲 Follow channel for regular updates Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE Gold pulls back before re-attempting $2,100 ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by My_Forex_Team
XAUUSD FOMC UP then Downtrend❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold (XAU/USD) rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), firmly establishing itself above the $2,025 mark, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued U.S. dollar, with risk-averse sentiment on Wall Street likely reinforcing the metal’s advance. 💲BUY GOLD 💲 💲SELL GOLD 💲 Signal Updates in chart. Followers continuously receive update. Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE FOMC MINUTES IN FEW HOURS ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by My_Forex_Team
SPX - A day in a life of a short trader Even if we had the FED meeting today - It was a clear and visible that selling pressure will lead the way. SPX started with a gap down and showed no attempt to close the gap at open or within first hour (initial balance). Right after intial balance we broke wit lower Bouhmidi-Band indicating more selling pressure to come. After two attempts to regain the first lower BB we saw in the last 30 minutes of trading more sell orders coming in and confirmation for trend continuation. At the end we close below of 2 sigma Bouhmidi-Band. SPX lost 1,6% at the end.
SP:SPXShort
by SalahBouhmidi
Mock Up Price Action for BTC | Near-Mid Term (12HR)Mock Up Price Action for BINANCE:BTCUSDT | Near-Mid Term (12HR) - Watching and waiting for THE opportunities to enter short - Anticipating highly volatile but still overall bullish upcoming week into end of month January before early February and throughout a proper market correction and pullback of BTC and top 200 ALTs - Accumulating small and micro cap ALTs to hedge against market correction/pullback period to begin in earnest within the next 30 days and lasting up to and through the BTC halving event in April - KUCOIN:VELOUSDT KUCOIN:VRAUSDT KUCOIN:TELUSDT BITTREX:BAXUSDT KUCOIN:BLOKUSDT are some of my main picks, in order of preference, all of which with massive profit potential within the next 90 days - With any luck, these small/micro cap ALTs will run over the next 75 days, while BTC and the rest of the broader market top 100-200 ALTs by market cap take a nose dive into the dirt and cool down for a while - End result, flush with profits from small/micro cap plays, at time when my primary investment interest coins like OKX:CSPRUSDT and BINANCE:XRPUSDT are at discount prices, for the last time, before the Crypto bull market starts in earnest May/June timeframe Personal Approach & Base Chart Setup - Stacked Parallel Channels for Grid of Confluence Points - High Time Frame (HTF) Fib Extensions, Retracements, & Time Cycles - Red Filled Horizontal Rectangles between areas of major Fib level from Extensions and Retracements - Teal Filled Horizontal Rectangles are areas of major support and price points for further DCA long order accumulation - Price Label Callout with Red Circle highlighting points of interest where I'd consider making a trade - I will consistently monitor and adjust taking into consideration long/mid/near term price action and market conditions/news Additional Remarks I don't think BTC is done yet. I think that the CME Futures on BTC that are set to expire end of month, have too much money on the table with bets around 50k and 60k. I think we're in the midst of bear trap soon to be turned to be bull trap, and a ridiculously volatile period up and down with retail traders positioned to get hit hard. I'll be on the sideline steadily accumulating my top 40 altcoins list to be held for the next 8 to 12 months. For my portfolio right now leading into the next 90 days, I currently have a heavier skew in active positions for Small Cap and Micro Cap ALTs like VELO VRA BAX and TEL which we know and have seen time and time again always perform well when broader market as a whole starts to pull back and money flows out of large and mid caps in the top 200, into guess what, small and micro caps that underperformed the market till now. Once a heavy market correction begins, nothing will be immune, and I'd expect all things to pull back.. However I believe these small and micro cap alts poised for bullish runs through April/May, will not be hit as hard, and will most certainly bounce back faster, harder, and likely this bounce back will kick off in earnest very big bullish movements for these. My Top Picks to Weather the Impending Storm VELO INVERSE VELO VRA INVERSE VRA BAX INVERSE BAX TEL INVERSE TEL
by Trevictus
2
Educational: A case for low volatility 🔹 INTRODUCTION A prevalent saying in the trading world is that you need high volatility to make money in the markets. However, this statement needs to be more accurate. While high volatility is, in fact, necessary, it is very much based on perspective, and there are many cases where an extremely volatile market will be your downfall. 🔹 UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUE The image above is an example of what a highly volatile market looks like. There are substantial moves and constant reversals. If you trade using traditional methods such as trend following, the majority will struggle to earn, executing in highly volatile markets. In highly volatile markets, the odds of reaching your profit target drop significantly, and this is because the market could reverse at any time. You will also often hear that scalpers strive in these kinds of markets, which is very much possible, but this is because scalpers often trade at a negative risk ratio and take small gains from the markets. As a result, they can capitalize on those significant moves. See the image below. However, what is happening within that highly volatile candle? One would be surprised to know that the market is not volatile within that candle on a lower timeframe. The market was very smooth and very consistent in its behavior. Notice how the trend was very clear on the lower timeframe? Moreover, there are rarely any large spikes. Well, that is also low volatility, which brings us to another misconception between high and low volatility. Many people are under the assumption that low volatility means the market is not moving much. This is not the case. The market could be moving a lot; however, due to each move being consistent, it is considered low volatility. In other words, there is little variability in the movements. Each candle is within the same range of percentage change. Notice how there are usually no large spikes in the low volatility charts? As long as that does not happen, trending markets can also be considered low volatility. 🔹SOLUTION So, with all this understanding, how does one use high and low volatility to one's advantage? Well, at this point, it is clear. What anyone wants to do is use high volatility to enter the market is going to trend. So, we want to establish high volatility from a much higher timeframe. By doing this, we ensure that the market will trend significantly on a lower timeframe. What we then do is go to a much lower timeframe and execute within that volatility to catch extremely large moves in the market. Often, this will be within a single highly volatile candle. See the image below.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
13
-WEN RETRACEMENTS??? - Bitcoin Retracements and Volatility ZonesDue to the fact that the current prices have large previous transaction volumes we are held tightly to narrow swing ranges. When previous order volume on the price scale is removed, price will move faster up and down the scale looking for support. Lack of price history allow for larger price movements and retracements. Notice the zones highlighted in this chart comparing the last bull run exhausting it's previous price history and increasing volatility. This is also applied to the current price zones as compared to the 2021 - 2022 price history. POC's from previous value areas in history will be necessary to indicate support areas when volatility increases.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WestClintwood
DAX: Back and forth Todays intraday session shows how important Bouhmidi-Bands can be for day trader and specially options traders. We started with a break of 1st STD lower Bouhmidi-Band after that we saw a typical reversal back into the bandwidth. After us opening we see a typical volalitiy swift and impulse that put pressure on DAX and pushed back below lower Bouhmidi-Band. Still watch out coming days today 2nd STD lower Bouhmidi-Band at 14598 - This could be the next short target. By looking on volume profile we see that around 14448 we see next bigger support.
XETR:DAXShort
by SalahBouhmidi
Why it might make sense to craft a tail hedge now! Say you’re bearish but find yourself confused by the market. You want to partake in the action if things go south, but not 100% certain, what could you do? First, you could build some conviction by identifying potential reasons why you think the market could dip lower… Then, devise a ‘tail hedge’ to profit if things indeed go south. Let’s break down these two steps this week. In our past two articles, we've highlighted a couple of reasons why we lean bearish. You can find them here: S&P500 Vulnerabilities: from Money Supply to Sectoral Imbalanc & Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility . But as each week unfolds with more drama, let's revisit the market. The first idea we want to bring up is the rates-equity dislocation. On the equities front, we observe the following: The conventional wisdom has long held that low rates are good for stocks. However, with stocks rising while the Fed hikes rates, has this relationship been disrupted? From 2020 to the end of 2021, we clearly observed this classic dynamic. However, from September 2022 onwards, as stocks continued their ascent despite the Fed's rate hikes, a distinct shift became evident. Could this Equity-Rate dislocation be a by-product of the AI hype? Consider Nvidia’s stock price, which seemingly pinpointed the Nasdaq's low point. Question is… Is the AI hype a strong enough factor to permanently alter this relationship? In terms of overarching themes, there are generally defined up and down trends. AI ETFs seem to provide a rough gauge of the sector's peaks and troughs. With the previous peak in 2021 happening in the ETFs right before Nvdia peaks, again now we see a similar trend with the ETFs seemingly having peaked while Nvida trades slightly higher still, and we wonder for how long more? If this signals a pivot for Nvidia, then the Nasdaq, currently buoyed by AI hype, could falter. Now, turning to rates: What could drive rates higher? A string of robust US economic data regarding jobs and inflation has emerged. Recent figures for CPI, PPI, and NFP all exceeded consensus estimates, suggesting a robust US economy. Such data might embolden the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening cycle. One way to interpret robust economic figures is through an economic surprise index, such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This metric quantifies the differences between actual economic outcomes and projections. A positive number indicates that the economy is outperforming expectations. When you overlay the Citi economic surprise index against the 13-week change in 10-year yields, a clear correlation emerges. When the economy outperforms predictions, yields tend to move in tandem. This increase in yield represents a significant deviation from its nearly 3-decade trend. Broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 Index hasn't experienced such a pronounced change in yield trends since its inception. On Volatility, Erik Norland from CME highlights an intriguing observation: the relationship between the yield curve slope and VIX when viewed from a 2-year average perspective. He suggests that equity volatility and the yield curve follow cyclical patterns, typified by specific periods: 1) Pre-Recession & Recession -Flat yield curve and high volatility 2) Early Recovery – Steep Yield Curve & High Volatility 3) Mid Expansion – Steep Yield Curve and Low Volatility 4) Late Expansion – Flat Yield Curve and Low Volatility Plotted, the cycle looks like this for the 1990s period; As well as the 2000s; Given our current position in the Equity Volatility-Yield Curve cycle, we might be bracing for higher volatility ahead as we're likely situated near the cycle's bottom left quadrant. If the trifecta of rising yields, waning AI hype, and a nascent high-volatility regime comes to fruition, then investing in tail hedges might be a savvy move. One potential structure for a tail hedge could be the 1X2 ratio put spread. This strategy could offer protection against adverse market movements, with the flexibility to structure it so that initial costs could be negligible or even result in a net credit. Additionally, the put ratio is typically a long vega strategy, which could be beneficial in a high-volatility environment. The 1X2 ratio put spread can be set up by taking 2 positions, 1) A short position on the Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price below the current level 2) A long position on 2 Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price further below the short option strike At the current index level for the Nasdaq 100 Futures March 2024 contract of 15,520, we could take a short position on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 14,800 at 304.25 points credit and 2 long positions on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 13,800 at 122.5 points debit. The setup cost of the put ratio is 304.25 – (2 * 122.5) = 59.25 points, resulting in a net credit. The maximum loss occurs when the underlying asset settles at 13,800 by option expiry, leading to a potential maximum loss calculated as follows: Long put options both expire worthless: -122.5 * 2 = -245 points Short put option: 13,800 – 14,800 = -1000 + 304.25 = -695.75 points Maximum loss = 940.75 points Considering the potential for loss and the associated risks, several profit scenarios emerge. If, as we discussed, the yield trend shifts and the AI hype subsides, the Nasdaq could potentially plummet. If the Nasdaq falls beyond the 13,104 level by option expiry, the strategy could be profitable. Conversely, if the Nasdaq remains range-bound at its current level or rises by expiry, we could also benefit from the initial credit received. Each 0.25 index point is equivalent to $5. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.yardeni.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by inspirante
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck! JHart @ LionHart Trading
TVC:VIXLong
by JHartCharts
BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs. However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price. Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon. Trades: Trade 1 Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region. Trade 2 Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry. Trade 3 Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500 Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
🔍 Understanding the Volatility Crush: Navigating ETH Recent PA Hello, traders! In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, we often encounter intriguing phenomena like the "volatility crush." 📊 🔍 What is a Volatility Crush? A volatility crush occurs when the price of an asset, in this case, Ethereum (ETH), experiences a significant reduction in its price volatility. It's like the storm clouds clearing after a turbulent period, leading to calmer, less erratic price movements. 💡 Recent ETH Price Action: Indeed, as you've observed, ETH exhibited rapid price movements at the end of last month. However, at the start of this month, there's been a noticeable decrease in trading volume and price volatility. This suggests a potential volatility crush in progress. 🌪️ Adaptability in Wild Times: So, how can traders adapt during such times of reduced volatility? Diversification: Consider diversifying your portfolio beyond ETH. Explore other cryptocurrencies or assets to spread risk. Risk Management: Tighten your risk management strategies. Lower leverage and set stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments. Crypto markets are sensitive to external factors, and unexpected news can spark volatility. Patience: Be patient. Reduced volatility doesn't mean inaction. It might be a good time to reassess your long-term goals and strategies. Education: Continuously educate yourself about market dynamics. Understanding the underlying technology and market sentiment can guide your decisions. Remember, adaptability is the name of the game in the crypto world. The ability to shift your strategies as market conditions change can help you not only survive but thrive in wild times. Stay vigilant and trade wisely! 🚀📉 #CryptoInsights #VolatilityCrush #Adaptability #ETHPriceAction
Education
by GMthepipgod
SOFI vwap crossover earnings 2 days LONGOn Friday the 28th SOFI had a good day. I am looking for more of the same going into earnings. It dropped through the middle VWAP bands and remarkably rebounded. Great volatility to be exploited. Some consolidation at the +1 Standard Deviation band is normal and healthy. SOFI as a financial technology has been honing its margins in a challenging environment. I see a long trade here and will take it being careful to take profits quickly and pay attention to the earnings release. A stock trade on an the intraday basis is considered. A 1 % stop loss is good enough since price is sitting on dynamic support. The target is 10.0, the pivot high of mid-July, This is 2.5% for a modest quick trade with a risk of 1 for a reward of 2.5. Just a basic trade at a good entry.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by AwesomeAvani