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Volatilty

Educational: A case for low volatility 🔹 INTRODUCTION A prevalent saying in the trading world is that you need high volatility to make money in the markets. However, this statement needs to be more accurate. While high volatility is, in fact, necessary, it is very much based on perspective, and there are many cases where an extremely volatile market will be your downfall. 🔹 UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUE The image above is an example of what a highly volatile market looks like. There are substantial moves and constant reversals. If you trade using traditional methods such as trend following, the majority will struggle to earn, executing in highly volatile markets. In highly volatile markets, the odds of reaching your profit target drop significantly, and this is because the market could reverse at any time. You will also often hear that scalpers strive in these kinds of markets, which is very much possible, but this is because scalpers often trade at a negative risk ratio and take small gains from the markets. As a result, they can capitalize on those significant moves. See the image below. However, what is happening within that highly volatile candle? One would be surprised to know that the market is not volatile within that candle on a lower timeframe. The market was very smooth and very consistent in its behavior. Notice how the trend was very clear on the lower timeframe? Moreover, there are rarely any large spikes. Well, that is also low volatility, which brings us to another misconception between high and low volatility. Many people are under the assumption that low volatility means the market is not moving much. This is not the case. The market could be moving a lot; however, due to each move being consistent, it is considered low volatility. In other words, there is little variability in the movements. Each candle is within the same range of percentage change. Notice how there are usually no large spikes in the low volatility charts? As long as that does not happen, trending markets can also be considered low volatility. 🔹SOLUTION So, with all this understanding, how does one use high and low volatility to one's advantage? Well, at this point, it is clear. What anyone wants to do is use high volatility to enter the market is going to trend. So, we want to establish high volatility from a much higher timeframe. By doing this, we ensure that the market will trend significantly on a lower timeframe. What we then do is go to a much lower timeframe and execute within that volatility to catch extremely large moves in the market. Often, this will be within a single highly volatile candle. See the image below.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
13
-WEN RETRACEMENTS??? - Bitcoin Retracements and Volatility ZonesDue to the fact that the current prices have large previous transaction volumes we are held tightly to narrow swing ranges. When previous order volume on the price scale is removed, price will move faster up and down the scale looking for support. Lack of price history allow for larger price movements and retracements. Notice the zones highlighted in this chart comparing the last bull run exhausting it's previous price history and increasing volatility. This is also applied to the current price zones as compared to the 2021 - 2022 price history. POC's from previous value areas in history will be necessary to indicate support areas when volatility increases.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WestClintwood
DAX: Back and forth Todays intraday session shows how important Bouhmidi-Bands can be for day trader and specially options traders. We started with a break of 1st STD lower Bouhmidi-Band after that we saw a typical reversal back into the bandwidth. After us opening we see a typical volalitiy swift and impulse that put pressure on DAX and pushed back below lower Bouhmidi-Band. Still watch out coming days today 2nd STD lower Bouhmidi-Band at 14598 - This could be the next short target. By looking on volume profile we see that around 14448 we see next bigger support.
XETR:DAXShort
by SalahBouhmidi
Why it might make sense to craft a tail hedge now! Say you’re bearish but find yourself confused by the market. You want to partake in the action if things go south, but not 100% certain, what could you do? First, you could build some conviction by identifying potential reasons why you think the market could dip lower… Then, devise a ‘tail hedge’ to profit if things indeed go south. Let’s break down these two steps this week. In our past two articles, we've highlighted a couple of reasons why we lean bearish. You can find them here: S&P500 Vulnerabilities: from Money Supply to Sectoral Imbalanc & Why we’re watching the Bond/Equity Volatility . But as each week unfolds with more drama, let's revisit the market. The first idea we want to bring up is the rates-equity dislocation. On the equities front, we observe the following: The conventional wisdom has long held that low rates are good for stocks. However, with stocks rising while the Fed hikes rates, has this relationship been disrupted? From 2020 to the end of 2021, we clearly observed this classic dynamic. However, from September 2022 onwards, as stocks continued their ascent despite the Fed's rate hikes, a distinct shift became evident. Could this Equity-Rate dislocation be a by-product of the AI hype? Consider Nvidia’s stock price, which seemingly pinpointed the Nasdaq's low point. Question is… Is the AI hype a strong enough factor to permanently alter this relationship? In terms of overarching themes, there are generally defined up and down trends. AI ETFs seem to provide a rough gauge of the sector's peaks and troughs. With the previous peak in 2021 happening in the ETFs right before Nvdia peaks, again now we see a similar trend with the ETFs seemingly having peaked while Nvida trades slightly higher still, and we wonder for how long more? If this signals a pivot for Nvidia, then the Nasdaq, currently buoyed by AI hype, could falter. Now, turning to rates: What could drive rates higher? A string of robust US economic data regarding jobs and inflation has emerged. Recent figures for CPI, PPI, and NFP all exceeded consensus estimates, suggesting a robust US economy. Such data might embolden the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening cycle. One way to interpret robust economic figures is through an economic surprise index, such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index. This metric quantifies the differences between actual economic outcomes and projections. A positive number indicates that the economy is outperforming expectations. When you overlay the Citi economic surprise index against the 13-week change in 10-year yields, a clear correlation emerges. When the economy outperforms predictions, yields tend to move in tandem. This increase in yield represents a significant deviation from its nearly 3-decade trend. Broadly speaking, the Nasdaq 100 Index hasn't experienced such a pronounced change in yield trends since its inception. On Volatility, Erik Norland from CME highlights an intriguing observation: the relationship between the yield curve slope and VIX when viewed from a 2-year average perspective. He suggests that equity volatility and the yield curve follow cyclical patterns, typified by specific periods: 1) Pre-Recession & Recession -Flat yield curve and high volatility 2) Early Recovery – Steep Yield Curve & High Volatility 3) Mid Expansion – Steep Yield Curve and Low Volatility 4) Late Expansion – Flat Yield Curve and Low Volatility Plotted, the cycle looks like this for the 1990s period; As well as the 2000s; Given our current position in the Equity Volatility-Yield Curve cycle, we might be bracing for higher volatility ahead as we're likely situated near the cycle's bottom left quadrant. If the trifecta of rising yields, waning AI hype, and a nascent high-volatility regime comes to fruition, then investing in tail hedges might be a savvy move. One potential structure for a tail hedge could be the 1X2 ratio put spread. This strategy could offer protection against adverse market movements, with the flexibility to structure it so that initial costs could be negligible or even result in a net credit. Additionally, the put ratio is typically a long vega strategy, which could be beneficial in a high-volatility environment. The 1X2 ratio put spread can be set up by taking 2 positions, 1) A short position on the Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price below the current level 2) A long position on 2 Nasdaq 100 Index Futures with a strike price further below the short option strike At the current index level for the Nasdaq 100 Futures March 2024 contract of 15,520, we could take a short position on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 14,800 at 304.25 points credit and 2 long positions on the March 2024 put option with a strike price of 13,800 at 122.5 points debit. The setup cost of the put ratio is 304.25 – (2 * 122.5) = 59.25 points, resulting in a net credit. The maximum loss occurs when the underlying asset settles at 13,800 by option expiry, leading to a potential maximum loss calculated as follows: Long put options both expire worthless: -122.5 * 2 = -245 points Short put option: 13,800 – 14,800 = -1000 + 304.25 = -695.75 points Maximum loss = 940.75 points Considering the potential for loss and the associated risks, several profit scenarios emerge. If, as we discussed, the yield trend shifts and the AI hype subsides, the Nasdaq could potentially plummet. If the Nasdaq falls beyond the 13,104 level by option expiry, the strategy could be profitable. Conversely, if the Nasdaq remains range-bound at its current level or rises by expiry, we could also benefit from the initial credit received. Each 0.25 index point is equivalent to $5. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.yardeni.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by inspirante
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck! JHart @ LionHart Trading
TVC:VIXLong
by JHartCharts
BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs. However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price. Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon. Trades: Trade 1 Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region. Trade 2 Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry. Trade 3 Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500 Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
🔍 Understanding the Volatility Crush: Navigating ETH Recent PA Hello, traders! In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, we often encounter intriguing phenomena like the "volatility crush." 📊 🔍 What is a Volatility Crush? A volatility crush occurs when the price of an asset, in this case, Ethereum (ETH), experiences a significant reduction in its price volatility. It's like the storm clouds clearing after a turbulent period, leading to calmer, less erratic price movements. 💡 Recent ETH Price Action: Indeed, as you've observed, ETH exhibited rapid price movements at the end of last month. However, at the start of this month, there's been a noticeable decrease in trading volume and price volatility. This suggests a potential volatility crush in progress. 🌪️ Adaptability in Wild Times: So, how can traders adapt during such times of reduced volatility? Diversification: Consider diversifying your portfolio beyond ETH. Explore other cryptocurrencies or assets to spread risk. Risk Management: Tighten your risk management strategies. Lower leverage and set stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments. Crypto markets are sensitive to external factors, and unexpected news can spark volatility. Patience: Be patient. Reduced volatility doesn't mean inaction. It might be a good time to reassess your long-term goals and strategies. Education: Continuously educate yourself about market dynamics. Understanding the underlying technology and market sentiment can guide your decisions. Remember, adaptability is the name of the game in the crypto world. The ability to shift your strategies as market conditions change can help you not only survive but thrive in wild times. Stay vigilant and trade wisely! 🚀📉 #CryptoInsights #VolatilityCrush #Adaptability #ETHPriceAction
Education
by GMthepipgod
SOFI vwap crossover earnings 2 days LONGOn Friday the 28th SOFI had a good day. I am looking for more of the same going into earnings. It dropped through the middle VWAP bands and remarkably rebounded. Great volatility to be exploited. Some consolidation at the +1 Standard Deviation band is normal and healthy. SOFI as a financial technology has been honing its margins in a challenging environment. I see a long trade here and will take it being careful to take profits quickly and pay attention to the earnings release. A stock trade on an the intraday basis is considered. A 1 % stop loss is good enough since price is sitting on dynamic support. The target is 10.0, the pivot high of mid-July, This is 2.5% for a modest quick trade with a risk of 1 for a reward of 2.5. Just a basic trade at a good entry.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by AwesomeAvani
DXY - Breaking lows! #DOLLAR #DXYThe US DOLLAR strength index broke down from the ABCDE Bearish wedge Pattern. RSI - Relative strength index heavily over sold expecting to retest this wedge, or possible fakeout to the upside before moving back down. *Too add to the volatility - President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Thursday allowing the Pentagon to tap an additional 3,000 military reservists to support the US mission in Europe to bolster Nato amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The additional troops will join the estimated 100,000 US service members already on the European continent. *FOMC Meeting 26th of July - going to be a busy Month! Overall thoughts, Bearish move for the DXY - relief rally in assets.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by dibz1996
📉 Descending Broadening Wedge Spotted on $DOTHey traders! Today, I want to share an exciting chart pattern I've identified on MIL:DOT (Polkadot). Let's explore the descending broadening wedge and its implications for potential price action. 📊💡 Pattern: Descending Broadening Wedge 📉🔽 Symbol: MIL:DOT 💰 Overview: A descending broadening wedge is a distinct chart pattern characterized by expanding price swings within converging trendlines. This pattern suggests increased volatility and the potential for a reversal. Let's dive into the descending broadening wedge pattern on MIL:DOT and assess its significance. ⚡💹 Key Features of the Descending Broadening Wedge on MIL:DOT : Expanding Price Swings: Notice the widening price swings within the converging trendlines, creating the broadening pattern. This indicates growing volatility and potential market dynamics shift. 📈📉 Reversal Potential: Descending broadening wedges are often considered as reversal patterns, indicating a possible trend change. It's crucial to monitor price action for confirmation. 🚀📈 Trading Strategy: Entry Point: Consider entering a position once MIL:DOT breaks out above the upper trendline of the descending broadening wedge. This breakout could signal a potential reversal and the beginning of an upward move. ⬆️💰 Stop-Loss: Implement a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to manage risk and protect against potential downside. ⛔️📉 Target Levels: Identify key resistance levels or previous swing highs as profit targets. Adjust your position size and take profits accordingly. 🎯📈 Risk Management: Maintain proper risk management techniques, including position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and adhering to your trading plan. Be aware of the risks associated with trading cryptocurrencies like $DOT. ⚠️💼💡 Disclaimer: Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough analysis and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. #DescendingBroadeningWedge #DOT #Polkadot #Cryptocurrency #TrendReversal #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #Volatility #RiskManagement In conclusion, the descending broadening wedge pattern identified on MIL:DOT indicates a potential reversal in the making. However, it's crucial to wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline before considering any trades. Stay tuned for further updates on $DOT! 💹🚀 (Note: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.) 💡💼📚
Long
by STP_MrNodeItAll
1
BTC Long, Market Shift? Volatility expectedMinor update to the previous idea. BlackRock BTC Trust could change things, makes me wonder if they change their mind on whether it's ESG compliant. This trade is more of a double-edged sword that is more profitable in longing for volatility rather than direction considering market forces at the moment. Expect at least a +- 20% price swing. Either we break through the first resistance band of 27k-32k and continue forward with a close above 26k today, or we drop to close the previous gap from 21.8k -20.8k with a close never reaching over 27.4k. For now, we are at risk of seeing 20k considering current prices are under 27.4k and the sp500 being this overbought in the short term that could drag btc with it if a bull trap is in place in tradFi (not confirmed yet, mean rev. signals won't work). Overall, I'm bullish on BTC short term (possible that it could make a run up before sp500 contracts), and still remain bearish on SP500 long term (might switch to neutral if the west releases dependence on its manufacturing base toward China/the east, and innovation continues in the tech sector). Altcoins might not be able to catch up with BTC on the upswing, but most likely on the downswing if it so happens. Trades: Long #1 Entry: 26k SL: 24k TP: 34.5k, 40k Long #2 Entry:20k SL:18k TP: 34k, 40k Short Entry: 26k SL: 29k TP:22k, 21k, 19k
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
Wyckoff distribution eventAfter failled attempt to break down form support (26 700), Btc is testing highs, again. In case we will fail breaking the resistance to the upside there is potential for distribution event. Also the RSI showing us bearish divergence on many timeframes. On the other hand we are in strong uptrend for last monthes and there is possibility for testing the 30k level. So setup your SL on top of the potential SFP. Be patient and wait for Swing failure pattern. Good luck.
Short
by Pepe41111
Silver will move! Are you ready?Good morning fellow traders With recent bank failures, precious metals have a strong backing in demand, therefore looking for a long swing position makes more than just sense. As Gold is pushing for its 3rd weekly advance, silver has been consolidating firmly around 22 USD. We saw some rejections, one happening yesterday with the rate hikes being priced in by the ECB, yet we still are holding the consolidation. This gives me confirmation that 1. we have resistance at 22 and 2. with pretty erratic bounce-offs, Silver has been recovering every time. Therefore I will be looking for an entry on Silver today, hopefully positioning myself for a Swingg trade on the white metal. Please join me on my trade! Here is my game plan: - Gold needs to trade in the same direction as Silver (I am already long Gold) - Silver needs a clear break above 22 but not pushing up further than 20.30 - We should get a clear move here, yet it should not be a big move - Silver needs to bounce off 22.2 area and retreat to 22 - 22 needs to be held, not much slippage under 22 allowed - Entry upon reclaim of 22 - Target1: 22.60 - Target2: 23 - Stoploss: 21.6 area Smooth execution on this trade could allow you to find an entry swing position that could allow you to get great profits. Be sure that you understand the idea before executing, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to leave a comment or text me directly. Make sure to leave a follow and like if you enjoy my content! Have a good one legends! Best CH
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by TraderCHgold
1
Side-step a potential storm!Just when we thought the hawkish narrative was pretty much priced in, SVB’s fallout basically threw a spanner into the hiking cycle. You’ve probably read quite a lot about the whole SVB debacle since Thursday’s trading session so we won’t harp on that. We instead want to turn your attention to two other markets that moved significantly since the SVB episode. Interest Rates & Gold. A sharp repricing has occurred in the expected rate path as markets digest the onslaught of SVB-related events. As a result, we saw the probability of a 50bps point hike jump from 30% to 80% and then back down to 20% as of today. Additionally, further rate hikes have also been priced out indicating market’s expectations of a more cautious Fed. Most importantly, the implied aggressive rate cuts starting from the end of 2023 caught our eyes here. As a reminder, the last time the fed paused and then cut rates, Gold responded with a 60% rally. As the potentially lower terminal rate and faster pace of rate cuts narrative begin to pick up momentum, we think Gold deserves more attention now than ever. The next FOMC meeting is only 10 days away. From there, we will get a sense of what the Fed thinks of the current situation. If they start to show signs of retreat from their hawkish stance, we believe it will be a catalyst for this trade. Another point of worry is economic data still coming in hot, at least for now. For those not keeping count, Non-Farm Payrolls numbers have beaten estimates to the upside for the past 11 months as the economy remains unusually strong. With the next set of CPI numbers coming out this Tuesday, a hot print could drive inflation worries further. If the Fed shows signs of easing on the hawkish narrative while Inflation numbers continue to be hotter than expected, higher Inflation expectations could once again drive investors into inflation-protecting assets like Gold. Key volatility gauges have pointed higher over the past few days and major indexes have edged closer to key price and technical levels. Given these, volatility is likely to compound from here as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) potentially flip sides and funds rotate out of the banking sector. In such uncertain times Gold’s status as a safe haven asset could attract flows as investors sidestep the market turbulence. Looking at the price action, Gold still trades well clear of the 500 Day EMA mark which has marked the support for the price action and well clear of the 1800 physiological level. RSI is still middle of the road indicating that there is still room for Gold to run higher. Gold’s relationship with interest rates and position as an inflation-hedge/safe haven asset could very well position it for further upside from here. For now, we think it provides enough upside to sidestep the potentially volatile times ahead. We set our stops near the previous level of support and the 0.618 Fib level, 1755, and our take profit levels at 2065. Each 0.1-point increment in COMEX Gold future is equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
1
Q for the community. Is the ATR valuable based against volume?I have to say that one of the most confusing indicators for me is the ATR indicator. it has the tolerance to move up or down which will tell you that you are gaining volatility or losing volatility. when you are gaining volatility above a certain amount on an asset is when it's a good time to trade. but there's nothing that tells us exactly when is that certain amount. also the gain above that unspecified amount changes between different assets and pairs that you trade. another thing that discerns me from using the ATR Is that it's movement is related to price movement. well unfortunately we know that in the markets price can be manipulated which manipulates momentum. but the one thing it cannot be manipulated is volume. so in today's video I'm asking a question to the community which is what happens for you guys as a benefit when the ATR is based against volume and calculated against the movement of volume. also in today's video I show you guys how I have figured out a way for the ATR to tell you that you are just broken above the average volatility or just broken below the average volatility. just because you are above average volatility doesn't mean you are still in a good trading area. just because you've broken above average volatility doesn't mean you can enter into a trade immediately. you also and always need extra confluences so with that being said I added this break of the average to the upside or downside into the bull bear power void and I created a method for the oscillator to spit out a simple pair of colors which you can change on your own that tell you you have just entered above average or below average volatility and as such you can start looking for your move or your exit. so my question to the community is how relevant is volatility against volume in your indicators and trading strategies. also I'd like this to have a better layout or way of signifying you that you have broken above or below average volatility. leave your ideas in the comments below.
U
by CoffeeshopCrypto
7
Bitcoin Historical Volatility new low Here we have the BTC historical Volatility Index in blue. Orange is the price of BTC. The teal line is the 50sma for volatility. At the bottom, I have the correlation coefficient (CC) for the volatility index with BTC. I have marked in green when the CC reaches above 0.50, and red when it crosses below -0.50. The fibonacci retracement is fairly arbitrary, but fits nicely between 0.25 and 1.00. In this article, I would like to discuss a little bit about volatility. It is often associated as going up when price goes down, but is a bit more specific in what it is telling us than simply being an inverse price indicator. Next, I’ll talk about the correlation coefficient. It is an excellent tool that every trader, and investor, should learn to use. Finally, I would like to examine some of the similarities between our recent all time low in this index, breaking the low 2018, which proceeded the infamous 2018 capitulation event. Volatility is always an interesting indicator, and is often used to indicate position risk for the asset it is being calculated for. Simply stated, it is a measure of how much the price of an asset moves in a particular period of time. However, it can be calculated a number of different ways. The most common is standard deviation, or how far price is from an average of the price over a recent period of time. The amount of time the data is taken from can also change how the volatility measure acts and how useful it is. More so, because it measures movement, and not so much direction, it can be difficult to use it in an accurate way, as correlation appears to be inconstant at face value. Historical volatility is calculated a little differently. And honestly, before reading a few papers on it for this essay, I had not realized that ‘historical’ referenced the calculation method as opposed to it being the history of the volatility. Historical, or realized, volatility is an estimation of the standard deviation of the price of returns over a particular period of time, in this case, 24 hours. It can also be calculated with a weighting for the trading volume over the calculation period. I have placed a 50ma (150 day moving average) to show a general range for average volatility, and we can see that MA tends to oscillate between 2.5 and 5.0. The correlation coefficient is an excellent indicator that allows you to see, and quantify, the correlation of your current chart with any other chart ticker. Here I have it set to the BLX all time price index for BTC. The higher it goes, the more correlated the movement of the 2 charts are, and below zero indicates an inverse correlation. When CC is near zero, the movements of the two charts are NOT correlated. One of the issues with volatility indexes is their accuracy can vary, and is sometime disputed. My goal in using the correlation coefficient with this index is to parse out when volatility is most useful to pay attention to, and in which direction. On this chart, we can see that when volatility spikes above 10, it is often correlated with big, sudden moves to the downside. However, not all of them are. By using the correlation coefficient, we can parse out the direction of volatility. When CC is in the green, and volatility increases, we see the price of bitcoin moving up, usually in an explosive manner. Likewise, inverse correlation is often showing us downwards movements. I find this a useful way to pull a little bit of the noise out of the volatility index. The previous all time low in volatility of 0.35 occurred on October 28th of 2018, and about sixteen days before the 2018 capitulation event began. About a week ago on Christmas day, we broke that low, going down to 0.34. Very low volatility tells us that price isn’t just moving sideways, but is pretty flat for the most part. And if you have been following bitcoin lately (bless your soul) you know flat and boring is kind of an understatement. The good news is that it’s likely going to get exciting soon. Volatility doesn’t seem to stay at or below 1.0 for very long, and seems to be either correlated, or inversely correlated with price within a few weeks to a month after reaching 1.0. An exception would be from August of 2019 to the pandemic crash in 2020. We can see some similarities in both volatility and the correlation coefficient between the time leading up to the 2018 capitulation event and our recent data in 2022. Price action is also fairly similar (flat and boring) with the exception that in 2018, the line chart had a small move down and back up during the flatness, while we had a small move up and then down earlier in December. Although, I doubt this really means anything. In 2018, we saw a 50% drop after price had already fallen around 70%. From top to bottom, the draw-down was just under 85%. Another 50% draw-down from where we are at the time of writing would take the price of bitcoin to just over $8,000. So what does this mean? Well, I can tell you, for sure, 100%, that I can not tell the future. I will be, however, watching my new chart very closely. But I would say it is likely we’ll be seeing something exciting, and it will probably be in January. Unfortunately, it looks like CC moves down just as fast as price, and as fast as volatility moves up during sudden, capitulation like events. However, Bitcoin always has a way of surprising everyone. If CC moves down to 0, and then puts in another local high in the next week, I would be a little spooked. If it keeps moving up to 0.50, it may be an interesting and unexpected move to the upside. Regardless of what happens, I would encourage everyone to try to understand volatility a little better than you already do, and use the correlation coefficient indicator. It is a simple, yet versatile tool that can be used to quantify data in a way that makes a trading strategy precise. Here’s to 2023, I wish you well, and thanks for reading.
BITMEX:BVOL24HEducation
by MaliceM13