Volatilty
What Are You Going To Do Now, VIX? 8/10/2020VIX at the 4 hour view.
The VIX did something a little unusual. The VIX poked below tier II support below, but closed right above tier II support (second dotted green line). In addition, the VVIX closed right above 110. The VIX refuses to give up since the Put/Call Ratio was around 0.66 today. Normally, below 0.75 is considered extreme on the buy side. However, we are living in abnormal times now. This means the VIX recognizes the Put/Call Ratio as a possibly buy climax and exhausting the supply of buyers. So, the VIX acts as both a fear AND greed gauge. You just have to interpret it. You can tell if it's greed when the VIX increases while the ES increases as well.
I found out why on the ES. To my ES post, the ES has been in an ascending wedge for several days now. The lower intraday range is what's lowering the VIX. In addition, high liquidity is also pinning the VIX down since the ES refuses to have a decent pullback.
Interestingly, the ascending wedge on the ES should be resolved either tonight or tomorrow. I had a date range for the volatility jump on the VIX between 8/10 to 8/12. I don't think this is a coincidence at all.
The ES is primed for a correction. However, high liquidity levels on the MCI and NFCI indicate that the correction will be delayed until liquidity levels finally reach weakened levels. That doesn't happen overnight. That usually takes weeks, possibly months to get there. I would not hold my breath for it.
What does that mean for the VIX this week? If the ES pulls back immediately and not do a blow off top pattern, then the measured move of the pullback would be about 80-90 points. Due to high liquidity levels, volatility jumps (more like a hop) would only last 1-2 days. I'm not expecting a "bigger" volatility jump until the ES reaches the previous all-time highs. Why? Bears are looking for a double top pattern. But again, I am not expecting a crash. The trend will be over all up until liquidity levels actually reach weak levels.
What will it take for liquidity to lower faster? Please see my ES post earlier.
XLI - IndustrialsEarnings season is imminent here for most companies. A few of the industrials have been reporting recently too. I decided I'd throw a little premium on in here.
-1 Sep21 $75 straddle for $3.43 cr.
Risk: 1.5-2x credit received
Profit: 25-30% of credit received.
If we get a down move, I may just take the call off and then roll out the put. We'll see how this trade works out.
AAPLLong AAPL via short put spread.
Sold Apr20 145/165 put spread for $2.15.
POP: 74%
BPR: $1,785
Max loss: $1,785
Max win: $215
Stop loss: Price at $162 or $400 loser.
Target: 50% of credit received.
short 165 put: 27 delta
long 145 put: 5 delta
Maybe add to the upside if AAPL starts to look better.
Peercoin RSI Divergence TradeWe're looking for a hard bounce in this long trade. Market cap is 35 million, circulating supply is 24.3 million. Peercoin price has been continually punished but the market recently was aggressively oversold, I'm looking at this as a long-term reversal opportunity. Volume today is a half million dollars, which is pretty thin, and this might also suggest a reversal as selling force evaporates and the buyers take over. The coin is flirting with it's all time lows from 2014, if you believe that the project is going to survive, these are attractive prices to buy and hold, for a few weeks or a few years. I like to buy assets that I feel will be profitable across multiple timeframes, that way if I miss a market event or things don't go exactly as planned, I've still got a margin of safety that guarantees the preservation of principal and that will allow me to hold it forever and know that I'll make money.