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Volume Indicator

JSE:J200 Top40 Automatic RallyAfter the distribution and markdown (discussed in previous posts), we have had a selling climax (SC). This is noted by the high volume and capitulation of the market. Now we are seeing an automatic rally (AR) from the SC lows. This should back up (BU) to the previous distribution trading range. Once this is done we could see a trading range form (fluctuating within the bounds of the SC and AR) which we then can evaluate to determine if it is a redistribution or accumulation trading range. A number of stocks are rallying and we will watch for the retest to go short to test the SC lows.
JSE:J200Long
by SteynTrade
Silver Weekly Resistance| Oversold bounce|Macro Structure Evening Traders!, Today’s update will be on Silver, which has breached an important weekly support, now potential resistance upon a retest. Points to consider, - Trend bearish (lower highs) - Back test of Support likely - RSI in oversold conditions - Stochastics in lower regions - Volume climax evident - VPVR currently flat Silvers overall trend has been putting in consecutive lower highs, it broke a major high timeframe support with a gap open. Back test of this support will confirm a bearish retest, which will be extremely bearish. The RSI is in oversold conditions, leading silver to a probable oversold bounce into weekly resistance. Stochastics is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. Volume climax is evident, with above average nodes, sign that a temporary bottom may be in. The VPVR is currently flat, this is within the open gap region where silver is likely to fill for a retest. Overall, in my opinion, Silvers oversold bounce is probable for a retest of weekly resistance; a rejection will be very bearish for the overall macro structure. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, Timing, perseverance, and ten years of trying will eventually make you look like an overnight success. – Biz Stone
AMEX:SLV
by AzizKhanZamani
ETHUSD Range Median| Local Trend| $100 Psychological LevelEvening Traders, Today’s Technical analysis will focus on distinctive levels on ETHUSD, currently holding its local trend line, a break will likely send it to lower support ($100 psychological level). Points to consider, - Trend bearish - Local trend being tested - Confirmed bearish retest - RSI testing support - Stochastics in lower high projection - Clear decline in volume ETHUSD’s immediate trend has been bearish with consecutive lower highs in projection; a break down will establish yet another lower high. The local trend line is being tested; this is at range median between structural resistance and $100 Psychological support. A re-test of the psychological support will increase if this trend line does not hold. ETHUSD has had a confirmed bearish retest with a wick, this signals strong sell pressure coming in. The RSI is currently testing support; a break of this level will be in synch with a break of the local trend line. The Stochastics is currently trading in a lower high projection, still with stored momentum to the downside. ETHUSD also has clear declining volume; this signals an influx being probable, especially when testing key pivot levels. Overall, in my opinion, if the local trend line breaks, ETHUSD is likely to re-test the $100 psychological level, if buy pressure fails to come in, then this gives us a short opportunity. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager
BYBIT:ETHUSD.PShort
by AzizKhanZamani
6
JSE:SOL Sasol Effort Without ResponseThis week the volume on many stocks have increased after significant declines. We identified Sasol potentially having a selling climax (See post below). Going down to the 1h time frame we see a trading range developing with a large operator buying at R30. However, equally, there is supply matching this demand. As a result, we see effort (high volume) without response (small spread) and the expected automatic rally (AR) has not materialised. It is time to be cautious and we will have to wait and see who wins. It depends on if the amount of capital the buyer is prepared to invest is enough to overcome the supply. While there is still such large supply we can expect the price to range in the trading range formed on the 1h time frame.
JSE:SOL
by SteynTrade
1
JSE:STXIND Industrial Index Showing Some StrengthThe JSE Industrial Index went through a distribution trading range and together with the overall market started to markdown. However, relative to the Top 40 the Industrial Index is showing strength. However, it is probably not time to get too excited as this is likely to only be a pullback and test of the trading range that was broken. In the short term, this could take us back to between 6500 and 7000. This is the sector to look for some stocks that are benefiting from the current market conditions to go long for shorter-term trades.
JSE:STXINDLong
by SteynTrade
GUESS Key Level Broken| Bearish Retest| Volume Climax Evening Traders, Today’s technical analysis will be on GUESS, breaking major structural support and confirming a bearish retest, Points to consider, - Bear Trend (consecutive lower highs) - Structural support breached - Confirmed S/R Flip - RSI oversold - Stochastics in lower regions - Volume climax evident GUESS has been in an established bear trend with consecutive lower highs, a new local low has been confirmed with its recent wick down. Weekly structural support has been breached; this is a high timeframe support, broken with convincing volume with a confirmed bearish retest. Bulls were not able to break above the now resistance – confirming the S/R flip. RSI is currently oversold; a reversion back to neutral territory is highly probable. The stochastics on the other hand is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. Volume climax is evident, signalling a temporary bottom is in; however this is likely to change due to the confirmed S/R flip. Overall, in my opinion, Guess is likely to test lower lows upon breaking key structural support. This is also combined with the greater economic situation; the retail sector is largely hit. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Don't blindly follow someone, follow market and try to hear what it is telling you.” ― Jaymin Shah
NYSE:GESShort
by AzizKhanZamani
2
COTIBTC Falling Wedge| Low Volume | Retest of lows Evening Traders, Today’s Technical Analysis will focus on COTIBTC, trading in a probable falling wedge looking to retest local lows. Points to consider, - Trend bearish - Lower lows likely - RSI showing signs of divergence - Stochastics neutral - Volume Clearly declining COTI’s trend has put in consecutive lower highs after breaking the all-important 21 EMA. A lower low is likely as this will test structural support. The RSI is putting in higher lows, will eventually form into a bullish divergence upon a retest of lows (green area). Stochastics is currently neutral with momentum stored in both directions. Volume nodes are clearly declining; this signals a move being imminent in the near future. Overall, in my opinion, COTI is likely to retrace back to local lows for a retest, which will put in a bullish divergence, increasing the probability of breaking bullish from this pattern formation. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, Timing, perseverance, and ten years of trying will eventually make you look like an overnight success. – Biz Stone
Long
by AzizKhanZamani
JSE:GFI Gold Fields SpringJust like the other gold stocks Gold Fields has lost a lot of value in the last couple of days. But just like some of the other gold stocks it has held above the yearly pivot point and 200 Day SMA and formed a spring of the trading range. The volume increases during markups, it is stronger than the Top 40, there is divergence with the Volume RSI and a reversal bar has formed. Looking for the further markup of Gold Fields. We could see a test of the spring but should have a strong markup.
JSE:GFILong
by SteynTrade
LTCBTC Sellers in control| Technical Confluences| S/R FlipEvening Traders! Today’s Technical Analysis will focus on LTCBTC which is testing a key trade location with multiple technical confluences. Points to consider, - Sellers in control - Key trade location being tested - Local support next viable target - RSI neutral - Stochastics in lower regions - Volume climax nodes LTC breached key technical structural support (now resistance) confirming that sellers have gained control. LTC is currently testing a key trade location with multiple confluences, the .50 Fibonacci, the 21 Week MA and the Point of Control. It’s viable to say that LTC is more probable to test local support due to heavy resistance; this will put in a lower high. The RSI broke out of its wedge; this was in confluence with the oversold bounce, now is currently neutral. The stochastics on the other hand is trading in the upper regions; it has lots of stored momentum to the downside. There has been a clear volume climax however with lack of bull volume follow through. This indicates absence of bull pressure, putting more emphasis on testing lower lows. Overall, in my opinion, LTC is likely to test lower regions; this is due to heavy technical confluence at the current trade location which is also in direct proportion with the bearish sentiment. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.” – Gerald M. Loeb
Short
by AzizKhanZamani
2
JSE:SOL Sasol Selling Climax?Sasol has had a dramatic decline this week. Price has spiked below the downward stride (Oversold line) on the back of the drop in oil prices. Volume has been the highest recorded. This could be a selling climax with a reversal bar indicating the possible start of an automatic rally. The rally should be as volatile as the decline and could close the gap that was formed, taking us back to around R200. This would then define the boundaries of a trading range that should form if one follows the Wyckoff logic. This trading range should take some time to develop.
JSE:SOLLong
by SteynTrade
JSE:STXRES Resources Index Breaking Upward StrideThe drop in resources has been unexpected to me (See posts below). I would expect gold stocks to improve in a risk-off environment. However, this has not happened. The theory seems to be that due to the selloff in other stocks large interest has also been caught on the wrong side of trades and have had margin calls and needed to raise cash quickly. They have done this in holdings that were profitable and easiest to sell which have been the safe haven areas such as gold and bonds. Further, with the price war in oil that has also affected the resources index. The start of the trading range looked like a reaccumulation range with the volume on the increases and higher highs being made. Price also held above the yearly pivot point as has been the case since 2017. However, the last increase was on very low volume which should have been a pre-warning to what is to come. A high volume attempt to go up on the last green bar had no response and then followed the decline. The upward stride has been broken and resources have turned bearish.
JSE:STXRESShort
by SteynTrade
JSE:STXFIN JSE Financials Markdown or MeltdownFollowing the Wyckoff logic of the markets the distribution trading range (Started in 2015) of the JSE financial index has been broken and the markdown (meltdown) has started. The upward stride has also been broken. The financial index is also performing poorer than the Top40 index. We could have a backup to the trading range with price finding support as previous support levels of 1200 / 1100. After the backup, we can expect the markdown to continue.
JSE:STXFINShort
by SteynTrade
JSE:J200 Top40 Wyckoff Distribution and MarkdownInstitutional investors which include foreign investors have bee distributing the JSE stocks since 2015 (see posts below for further analysis). Following a Wyckoff approach to the markets an upsloping distribution range was formed and now the markdown has started. Price has broken the upsloping stride and the lows of the automatic reaction (AR) at the start of the trading range with the largest two down bars ever. We may have a rally back to the breakout levels but I am expecting further markdown to take place.
JSE:J200Short
by SteynTrade
SPY 200 Point Close (8%)|200 Weekly MA|RSI approaching oversoldEvening Traders! Today’s analysis will be on SPY, a 200 point close on the weekly time frame, saving SPY from having one of the worst weeks in history as it respects the longer term trend line. Technical points to consider, - Price above key technical 200 Week MA - Long term trend line respected - Structural resistance as probable lower high region - Stochastics projected down - RSI approaching oversold - Noticeable bear volume nodes SPY is currently sitting above the 200 Week Moving Average, a level that must hold as a weekly candle close will increase the probability of taking out lows. Price respected the longer term trend line with a precise wick leading to a 200 point close. Structural resistance is a key level to break, if bull volume does not follow through with the bounce, SPY is likely to put in a lower high. The Stochastics is currently projected down with stored momentum, it can stay trading in the lower regions for an extended period of time. RSI is approaching oversold conditions; historically SPY has a relief rally, which can be plausible on the open. There are noticeable bear volume nodes indicating extreme sell pressure putting more emphasis on an oversold bounce. Overall, in my opinion, fundamentally and speculatively this bounce could be due to big balance sheets ramping up the markets to avoid one of the worst weeks in history. It could also be due to large short covering to avoid holding over the weekend. Technically, if price does not break and close above structural resistance within the next couple weeks and months, this will increase the likelihood of lower highs, thus testing lower levels. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “You become fearful the moment you identify with fear. But once you begin seeing it as an impersonal changing phenomenon, you become free.” ― Yvan Byeajee,
AMEX:SPYShort
by AzizKhanZamani
JSE:SNT Santam DistributionAnother one where the distribution has completed. After going overbought when it spiked through the upper trendline a buying climax (BU) was formed in 2018. After that Santam was trading in a distribution trading range. After an upward thrust (UT) price has been unable to break above the 200 SMA and Yearly Pivot Point and formed a last point of supply (LPSY). Now the price has broken the trading range and backed up (BU). Santam is weaker than the Top 40.
JSE:SNTShort
by SteynTrade
JSE:STXFIN Financial Index Signs of WeaknessThere has been a change of character (CoC) with two of the largest delining pushes since the uptrend started. Price has broken the upward stride. Volume is higher during the downward pushes and delines on the rallies. Currently, the Volume RSI is oversold and the price has reached the bottom of the trading range. So we can expect a pause before the markdown begins in earnest. This does not just seem like a correction but potentially there is more downside to come.
JSE:STXFINShort
by SteynTrade