📈IOTA Analysis: Short and Long Opportunities in Focus💥🔍Following Bitcoin's recent uptick last night, the concurrent increase in Bitcoin dominance prevented most altcoins from experiencing significant price gains. Instead, many coins traded within a range, with some even witnessing a decrease in value, such as IOTA, which we'll analyze today.
📚While I haven't conducted an in-depth study on the IOTA project yet, it generally operates as a protocol for feeless and permissionless data transfer, actively functioning in this domain. I'll provide more insights into this project once I've conducted thorough research. For now, let's delve into the chart to identify potential entry points.
📈On the 4-hour timeframe, which serves as my primary analysis timeframe for futures, the downward trend is evident, indicating a bearish trajectory. Therefore, with a suitable trigger, we can consider opening short positions. However, initiating long positions on short-term shorts requires higher risk tolerance due to the market's direction.
✨Currently, we are within a support range from 0.2020 to 0.2086, and the price is consolidating within this range to determine whether buyers can maintain this support or if selling pressure will overwhelm them, causing the support to fail. Hence, we need to observe the upcoming developments. If the support breaks, we can expect a target of 0.1719, but if it holds, it may act as a bounce back to the SMA99.
📉For short positions, exert effort to open positions upon the breakdown of 0.2020 and the confirmation of a candle below this level, as this scenario could easily drive the price to 0.1719, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. However, if you're considering long positions, patience is required until the price surpasses the SMA99, followed by identifying a trigger from the candles. The nearest trigger is at 0.2328, but as we're against the trend, consider securing profits at a risk-to-reward ratio of 2 or 3 and leaving some room for a target of 0.2599.
📊Currently, the candle volumes do not provide sufficient data due to recent holidays, with low volumes followed by a sudden increase. Therefore, we need to wait for a few more candles to compare volumes effectively. RSI triggers for long positions cannot be specified due to the timeframe limitation, as price movement towards the range high can significantly alter the RSI structure, rendering the triggers meaningless. However, for short positions, you can consider the breakdown of 27.22 as confirmation.
📝In conclusion, the analysis of IOTA presents both short and long trading opportunities, contingent upon market dynamics and price movements. While the current downtrend suggests potential short positions, traders should exercise caution and wait for confirmatory triggers, particularly a breakdown below the support range of 0.2020 to 0.2086. Conversely, for long positions, patience is advised until the price surpasses the SMA99, followed by identifying suitable triggers. It's essential to maintain a disciplined approach, considering risk management strategies and closely monitoring candle volumes for a comprehensive assessment of market sentiment. As always, adaptability and readiness to adjust trading strategies in response to evolving market conditions remain paramount for successful trading endeavors.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
Volumeanalysis
📈GAL Coin Analysis: Potential Long and Short Opportunities💎🔍Today is Monday, and as mentioned yesterday, the market tends to experience reduced volatility on holidays, making it advisable to refrain from opening new positions and take a break instead. Despite the minor fluctuations seen in the market today, none of the triggers were activated for initiating positions due to the limited volatility.
⚡️In today's analysis, we will focus on GAL coin, associated with the project Galexe, a decentralized platform facilitating interactions between projects and their communities, enabling distribution of airdrops, rewards, or NFTs seamlessly. The GAL coin has experienced a significant uptrend, especially driven by its growing website and collaborations with new projects. Currently, on the weekly timeframe, GAL is consolidating, while on the 4-hour timeframe, a downward trend is evident.
⏳In the daily timeframe, a descending trendline indicates a bearish bias, but considering the bullish nature of GAL on the weekly timeframe, a new uptrend may be underway, potentially impacting even the daily and weekly structures positively. The trigger for confirming this trendline is at 3.872, which may take considerable time to materialize.
📈From another perspective, recent candles breached the support at 3.33 but failed to establish below it. Following a brief consolidation around 3.124, the price reversed upwards, indicating a possible fakeout of the support. Typically, after a fakeout, re-entering the range can lead to a move towards the range high. Therefore, we can consider seeking long positions. The primary resistance for initiating this new uptrend is at 4.829, although the current price range is between 3.33 and 3.872. Since the support at 3.33 has been faked, and the price returned within the range, we can expect it to reach 3.872. Hence, a reliable trigger for long positions is at 3.447, which coincides with the POC (Point of Control) in the fixed range volume profile, suggesting significant selling pressure in that area. If buyers manage to absorb the selling pressure and establish above this level, it indicates their strength, providing an opportunity to join the uptrend.
✨Moreover, the breakout of the RSI resistance at 54.49 can further confirm the bullish momentum. However, it's essential to note the low volume of the bullish candles, indicating weak buying pressure. Therefore, entering long positions requires caution due to the high-risk nature of the trade. It's advisable to enter smaller timeframes like 1-hour or 15-minute charts with a tight stop-loss and aim for a quick risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
📉For short positions, the bearish trend offers a more straightforward approach. The weakening bullish momentum is evident from the decreasing size of the upward candles, indicating diminishing buying pressure. A critical level for short positions is at 3.447, where a small range box formation on lower timeframes can provide a favorable entry point. Managing short positions can be approached in two ways: setting a small stop-loss with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2 or 3, or waiting for the breakdown of the support at 3.124, depending on the market conditions.
📝In conclusion, GAL coin presents potential opportunities for both long and short positions, but traders must exercise caution and adapt their strategies according to the market dynamics.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
📈Navigating Market Restlessness: A Deep Dive into Ray Token 💵🔍Since the previous analysis, the market has exhibited a sideways movement, indicating a period of consolidation. Amidst this, the spotlight falls on Ray Token (RAY), a project garnering attention for its innovative approach within the decentralized exchange (DEX) space, operating on the Solana blockchain.
🔄In the 4-hour timeframe, we find ourselves within a range-bound scenario, with the box's ceiling at 1.7863 and the floor at 1.3569. While navigating within this range, short-term and scalp positions are viable options. However, it's essential to remain cautious, particularly on Sundays, as market volatility tends to be subdued due to reduced participation from major traders. Consequently, risk management becomes paramount to mitigate potential losses during erratic market movements.
📉The primary trigger for short positions lies at 1.3569, with the potential activation of a double bottom pattern upon breaching this short-term support. However, given the subdued market conditions, exercising patience until confirmation of a sustained break below this level is advisable. Conversely, long positions should be approached cautiously, with the primary trigger set at 1.7863, considering the significant resistance at 1.8818. Exploring alternative coins exhibiting relative strength against Bitcoin while lacking extensive overhead resistance may present more favorable long opportunities.
📈For RAY token specifically, a critical level to monitor is 2.4575, beyond which a potential bullish momentum could ensue, particularly in higher timeframes such as daily or weekly. Hence, positioning for long trades post-breakout beyond this level could yield favorable results.
📊Volume analysis indicates a diminishing volume within the box, signaling an imminent sharp movement. Therefore, staying vigilant and capitalizing on sharp price movements is advisable to maximize trading opportunities.
💎Regarding RSI triggers, oversold conditions below 42.68 could signal potential short opportunities, while overbought conditions provide favorable entry points for long positions. However, it's crucial to exercise discretion and wait for confirmation from price action, particularly in scenarios where RSI enters oversold territory, indicating a possible trend reversal.
📝In conclusion, despite the market's current state of restlessness, opportunities abound for astute traders. By employing a judicious approach, leveraging critical triggers, and remaining adaptable to evolving market conditions, traders can navigate the intricacies of the market landscape effectively, maximizing profit potential while minimizing risks.
Retest of 42-43K level to the moon I believe Bitcoin will likely drop to $42,000 - $43,000, which aligns with the Volume Profile Value Area High (VAH) of the range from mid-October 2020 until now. Simultaneously, this level also corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement between the low from November 2022 and the current all-time high (ATH). Additionally, it intersects with the green trendline in my chart.
Since mid-October 2020, Bitcoin has been in a significant consolidation phase, during which, after marking the cycle low at $15,500 in late November 2022, we revisited the Point of Control (POC) in March 2023 and then broke out above the VAH of this range. It's now time to revisit the VAH, flip it into support and start the real parabolic move.
Within the complete cycle, I believe there are two consolidation phases:
First Phase:
ATH → Bottom Formation → Breakout Attempt
Significant Retrace to the POC as VAH fails to act as support
Initial Bull Run that leads to the Second Phase consolidation
Second Phase:
Bottom Formation → Retrace to POC first → Breakout Attempt
Retraces to the VAH, flip it into support
Parabolic Run
After these two consolidation phases are completed, a parabolic run typically follows, leading to the next ATH and subsequent consolidation (Phase 1).
📈BNB Market Analysis: Potential Long and Short Positions✅🔍As Bitcoin experienced a notable downturn today, catching many traders unaware, it's imperative to reassess market conditions and identify potential trading opportunities. In this analysis, we'll delve into the intricacies of Binance Coin (BNB) and explore various factors shaping its price action.
💎Binance, being one of the most reputable digital currency exchanges globally, serves as a pivotal platform for traders worldwide. Its reliability and extensive range of services, including the renowned Launchpad feature, where users can participate in token sales by staking BNB, make it a preferred choice for many traders.
🔄In the 4-hour timeframe, we observe a recurring resistance zone between 617 and 656, which has been tested multiple times. Interestingly, each test resulted in a higher low, underscoring the increasing buying pressure within the market. Furthermore, the primary support established during this period lies at 517, encapsulating the range between 517 and 617. Adhering to our trading strategy, it's crucial to exercise caution within this range, managing positions with risk-to-reward ratios of at least 2 to ensure long-term profitability.
📊Volume analysis reveals a recent surge in selling pressure, particularly evident in the higher volume accompanying bearish candles. However, the overall volume trend indicates a decline, potentially susceptible to manipulation by larger market participants. As a result, while SMAs are temporarily disregarded due to the ranging market, RSI remains a pertinent indicator, offering insights into potential overbought or oversold conditions.
📈Moving on to potential triggers for long positions, the primary resistance at 600 warrants attention. However, given the current range-bound nature of the market, traders should temper their expectations regarding risk-to-reward ratios. Instead, emphasis should be placed on swift profit-taking and efficient position management.
📉Conversely, short position triggers at 576 and 543 are within the confines of the range-bound market. Thus, traders must exercise prudence, focusing on timely profit-taking and risk mitigation strategies. The critical short trigger at 517 signifies confirmation of rejection from ATH, potentially heralding a downtrend in the 4-hour timeframe.
📝In conclusion, Binance Coin (BNB) presents a nuanced landscape for traders, characterized by recurring resistance and support levels within a range-bound market. By employing meticulous risk management strategies and leveraging key triggers, traders can navigate market fluctuations effectively, maximizing profitability while mitigating potential losses.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
ETHUSDT, downward impuls to 3136 and lowerHi, friends. Today i start my new ideas list on ETH market. So for now we have a big volume of bearish accumulation process. First bears target 3136. Major target is 2915.36.
On every next volume signal i will write a new idea. And count our point profits together :)
And dont forget. Its just my mind and nothing else. I trade this strategy and just show my targets and vectors for you. Have a nice day and folow me.
📈Analysis for Potential Long and Short Positions in ENS✨🔍Today's market position offers a pivotal moment, potentially setting the trajectory for the next 2-3 months. Following a minor downturn yesterday, altcoins have once again approached the lower end of the trading range. This juncture demands vigilance, especially considering potential short positions upon breaking support levels to avoid missing out on market movements.
🔄Bitcoin has activated its trigger yesterday, signaling market activity. Therefore, I've identified ENS (Ethereum Name Service) as a coin still holding its support. ENS allows users to convert Ethereum addresses into unique NFTs, simplifying transactions. Feel free to send any funds to my address parham96.eth; it's my pleasure to receive them!
✅Utilizing price action analysis with a classical approach, focusing on breakout patterns, I've conducted an analysis on ENS.
💎A Fibonacci retracement from the previous downturn indicates a correction to 61.8%, suggesting diminished downward momentum.
A range box has formed between 0.618 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels, with a ceiling at 16.8 and a floor at 14. This range has tested the 0.5 level twice, forming a Head and Shoulders pattern with neckline support at 14 and a potential first target at 12.45.
During range-bound trading, closing positions at risk-to-reward ratios of 2 or 3 is advisable, building a foundation for risk-taking in future trends.
Confirmation of trend reversal can be sought through RSI, with a break below 31.47 signaling potential significant price movements.
For long positions, a risky scalp entry can be considered upon breaking 14.39, with risk-to-reward ratios emphasizing conservative targets.
RSI confirmation below 42.63 can further validate the signal.
📈For long positions, entry confirmation is contingent on increasing buying volume, ensuring logical market participation.
🛒If ENS appears promising to you, please leave a comment for analysis feedback. Moreover, if there's considerable demand for spot buying analysis, I'll provide daily or weekly timeframe analysis for your convenience.
⚡️This analysis aims to equip traders with insights for potential positions, emphasizing risk management and strategic entry points in ENS trading.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
GLENCORE Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
--------------------
1-23-2024
Strong downtrend with RED TrapZone established for days now. Price retraces with GREEN UMVD but the effect is not the same as RED UMVD - Obviously. Price is retracing a bit again with GREEN UMVD coming in now.
📈In-Depth Analysis of DOT: Long or Short Position?🔔🔍As we approach the ceiling of the trading range, it's time to pause and assess the decisions of the major players in the market. Understanding the dynamics between buyers and sellers, we aim to determine whether to take a long or short position. Today, we delve into the analysis of DOT, a coin that, like many others, is currently grappling with the resistance level without managing to consolidate above 7.455.
📈If we anticipate entering a long position after breaking the trend line, it implies a journey towards the lower end of the box, potentially around the support level of 6.275. With a 15% distance from the ceiling to the floor of the box, it presents an opportunity to open a suitable position in the futures market and ride it out until the floor of the box. The short trigger stands at 7.045, where a break in the shorter time frames like 1-hour or 15 minutes can offer a low-risk entry with quick risk-to-reward capture.
✅It's advisable to refrain from expecting high risk-to-reward ratios while within the range of 6.275 to 7.455. Settle for risk-to-reward ratios of 2 or 3 to ensure profit potential without being overly exposed to market fluctuations.
⚡️In the event of a breakout above 7.455, considering a long position requires a different approach. Given the anticipation of a new trend, setting stop-loss levels should align with the emerging trend rather than tight stop-losses to avoid premature exits. The previous model suits range-bound markets where lower risk-to-reward ratios suffice. However, for a potential upward move in the 4-hour timeframe, exercising patience for price action confirmation is crucial. Targets can be dynamically adjusted based on price behavior.
💥For a long position, a break above the 70 RSI line can serve as a confirmation of a sharp move upwards. As for the short position, attention to volume dynamics is essential, especially if the volume is gradually declining, indicating a forthcoming sharp market move.
📝To sum up, we have outlined strategies for both long and short positions in DOT. Whether the market undergoes a downturn and breaks below 6.275 or rallies above 7.455, traders can capitalize on either scenario. Additionally, considering the potential fakeouts, maintaining vigilance and adapting strategies accordingly is paramount for successful trading.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
📈 NEAR: Capitalizing on Bullish Momentum🚀🔍Let's delve into today's analysis. Weekly candlesticks closed yesterday, revealing compelling entry points for some altcoins. Even Bitcoin displayed a robust candle, indicative of buyer strength. Given the current market dynamics, it seems logical to consider adding Bitcoin to our portfolios. However, after thorough research, I've identified an altcoin that presents a relative uptrend to Bitcoin. In a market poised for upward movement, this altcoin is likely to outperform Bitcoin, offering greater potential returns.
💎The coin in question is Near Protocol (NEAR), a native coin of the Near Protocol blockchain. It boasts a robust project, making it a worthy addition to your bull market portfolio. Our previous entry point, as per our strategy, was a breakout above $3.823. While I didn't provide the detailed analysis then, it's crucial to stay vigilant for such entry opportunities. Since our entry, NEAR has delivered nearly 100% profit, doubling our investment.
⚡️A popular strategy suggests selling half of your position when your investment doubles, allowing you to secure profits while letting the remainder ride the market's ups and downs. However, I have a different approach. I firmly believe in holding onto my investments until Bitcoin surpasses $40,000, as I anticipate a bullish future for altcoins. These coins have the potential to multiply several times over, significantly increasing your capital.
📈Now, let's delve into the technical analysis and understand why NEAR should be part of your portfolio. On the weekly timeframe, after bottoming at $1 in October 2023, NEAR began its upward trajectory, witnessing a remarkable 600% growth. Yet, its potential extends far beyond these figures. Following a crucial resistance breakout, we're witnessing an influx of buying volume. Last week's candlestick, consolidating above the SMA7, signals strength and potential for further upside.
✅Moreover, the RSI indicator has exited the overbought territory, presenting an opportunity for a third bullish wave. With these insights and prudent capital management, now may be an opportune moment to enter a long position. For risk management, consider placing your stop-loss below $5, or even $4 for added security. As for targets, $17 presents a conservative estimate for Target 1, with potential for further gains upon its breach.
HBAR Trading ScenarioWe're looking at how the price of HBAR has been moving recently.
After dropping to a low of $0.0666, it bounced back up to $0.1818. The growth was more than 170%. Then, the price dropped back down to $0.0903. Right now, the asset price is trying to strengthen.
As for now, the market is showing that sellers are in control, so we can probably expect the HBAR price to keep dropping. If you're looking to get in on this, you might want to consider buying when the price touches the 200-day moving average or when the volume level POC declines.
📈Insightful Analysis: ALGO Coin's Potential Moves🔥🔍Let's dive into today's market analysis. Compared to yesterday, the market hasn't made any significant moves, prompting us to zoom in on the daily timeframe for a broader perspective. Today, our focus is on ALGO coin, presenting intriguing opportunities for both short and long positions. Let's dissect the price action to identify optimal entry points for futures and spot positions.
💎First and foremost, let's analyze the candlesticks. Candlesticks serve as the primary market data, providing invaluable insights into market behavior. While indicators such as RSI offer secondary derivations, they serve as confirmatory tools rather than primary signals for entry. Hence, our strategy hinges on understanding and interpreting candlestick patterns to gauge market sentiment effectively.
📈ALGO coin embarked on its bullish journey since September 2023, displaying sharp and oscillating upward movements, eventually reaching the resistance at $0.3196. Along this trajectory, it established robust support at $0.1591, acting as a pivotal level amid market corrections. The resilience of such key supports signifies market strength, yet a breach serves as a potent confirmation of trend reversal, albeit a challenging feat due to strong buy-side pressure.
📉Now, onto strategy. For short positions, a break below the central RSI line at 50, coupled with a significant candle confirmation, presents an opportune entry point. Setting stop-loss below $0.1591 ensures prudent risk management, while potential targets include $0.1305 and $0.1055, reflecting downside potentials. Conversely, for long positions, a break above $0.2113 serves as a trigger, with subsequent targets at $0.3196 and beyond, provided strong candle confirmation.
🛒As for spot positions, holders may consider liquidating upon daily candle closure below $0.1591, ensuring capital preservation. Alternatively, reducing exposure to initial investment while retaining potential upside allows for flexibility amid market uncertainties. For those seeking entry, a break below the ascending trendline, followed by a confirming candle, provides a compelling opportunity, with $0.1591 as a viable stop-loss level.
📝In conclusion, ALGO coin presents intriguing prospects for both short and long positions, contingent upon meticulous risk management and strategic entry execution. The market awaits, ripe with opportunities for those who dare to seize them.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
📈MATIC Analysis: Waiting for Box Breakout in 4-Hour Timeframe🚀🔍Today's market saw a notable rebound from a crucial support level, reaffirming the buying opportunity for investors keen on sustaining prices above this support. As emphasized in previous analyses, the breach of this support and subsequent consolidation below it would likely signal a bearish trend, making position opening challenging until proximity to this support.
⚡️Currently, Bitcoin has undergone a minor upward correction, with altcoins also nearing the upper bounds of their respective boxes. The coin under scrutiny today is Matic (MATIC), with analysis focused on the 4-hour timeframe. Matic is currently confined within a box ranging from 0.6449 to 0.7491.
🔔Utilizing the volume fixed range profile indicator reveals balanced volumes within the box, suggesting a prudent approach of waiting for a breakout before considering positions. Therefore, the entry point for a long position is at 0.7491, while for a short position, it's at 0.6449.
📈For long positions, consider targeting the area around 0.8685, a strong supply zone where price rejection may occur. Conversely, for short positions, 0.5057 serves as a suitable target, offering robust support and aligning with the 1 Fibonacci extension.
✅However, the optimal exit strategy entails waiting for a trend reversal before exiting the position. This advanced approach necessitates a deep understanding of market dynamics and significant trading experience.
📊Additionally, dwindling volumes indicate waning trader interest within this range. When traders, especially those with significant trading volumes, are disinterested, it's prudent for others to refrain from trading.
💎For RSI confirmation, breaking above 64.27 could serve as a signal for long positions. However, given the market's lack of momentum, reliance solely on momentum indicators like RSI may not be advisable.
📝In conclusion, exercising patience for a breakout from the current box range is prudent for Matic traders, with strategic entry and exit points crucial for successful trading amid prevailing market conditions.
Bitcoin Dump: 54K next support?54K seems to be the most likely support level on the 4-hour chart for Bitcoin/USD.
After that 52K .
A drop to 48K seems unlikely . But possible.
A reminder that this is the 4-Hour Chart. If you zoom out, you will notice that Bitcoin is not yet in a bear market.
Technical Analysis tools used:
Volume, Ichimoku Clouds, Fibonnaci Retracement, Volume Delta, Support Lines.
The Fibonacci Retracement show the next likely support levels which correlates closely with the (orange) support lines.
Price action below the Ichimoku Cloud signals the continuation of a bearish trend.
The new Volume Delta Indicator shows a divergence of sell volume domination over market price, which leads me to believe a trend reversal is coming soon. (around 52-54k)
up-to-date Fundamental Analysis:
Good news to consider:
Possible ETF unbanning and adoption in China (unconfirmed)
World's largest custodian bank, BNY Mellon reports exposure to BTC ETF
Halvening in effect
First Bitcoin ETF's launched in Asia (Hong Kong)
Bad news to consider:
CEO of Binance sentencing (30. April 24)
Prominent Bitcoin Figures arrested
Government crackdowns in US/UK/EU on centralized elements of the cryptocurrency ecosystem (CEX, Custodial Wallets, etc.).
Asian Bitcoin ETF's flopped due to low volumes on opening day.
Psychological Considerations:
must-reach-100k mentality of the Bitcoin community
Community psychological barrier against centralization and regulation
50k support
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Bitcoin: Dip or Bear Trap?A continuation to my last idea:
The diverging volume delta shows the selling-side domination going down.
You can see I use my Diverging Volume Delta Strategy,
like in my previous chart:
This is a short 4H-Chart analysis that indicates we might see a rise back to 60K or higher.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
COT reports + SMT. How to determine the long-term trend (BIAS).A pattern in the COT reporting curve to determine long-term trend or bias (BIAS). With a scope from several weeks to months. Of course, reports arrive with a delay, but on a long-term scale this is not a big problem.
Many people use divergences, or SMT in the teachings of Smartmoney Michael Huddleston (ICT), when analyzing charts. Why not use COT and divergence reports together as a useful chart analysis tool.
Everyone probably noticed that the positions of Commercial traders in the curve constructed from reports coincides with the price movement (there is some direct correlation, and a large one). After a long observation and playing with the scale, obvious discrepancies in correlations and emerging divergences (SMT) caught my eye. And very often at the peaks of movements, followed by a reversal.
Data reports are of course released once a week. Therefore, tracking such SMTs can be used as an additional factor to determine bias in the analysis of higher time frames. And already having a bias for the next few weeks, or even a couple of months. You can look for signals in trades with confirmation on lower timeframes.
I like these divergences, they are built on an indicator that is completely independent of price. unlike any RSI, Stochastics, etc.
The curve is constructed solely based on trading volumes on the CME exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price, therefore it does not follow the price further to infinity. This is a direct correlation of two different data streams, and their divergence (divergence).
I think I’ll make a separate short article about “data streams”, what I mean by this.
And finally, of course, the tool is not the holy grail. But with a proper and adequate approach in skillful hands, it is a very good tool that can be kept in mind during a complex analysis of charts. At a minimum, if divergence occurs, you can be wary and reconsider your plans.
I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
📈Analyzing OP: Fundamentals and Technical Outlook💎🔍Today, we delve into the analysis of Optimism (OP) coin, a leading project in Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. Being one of the earliest and most reputable Layer 2 solutions, Optimism has garnered significant attention, particularly from DeFi enthusiasts, due to its substantially lower transaction fees compared to Ethereum. This has allowed users with limited capital to participate in DeFi and reap profits, further boosting its popularity within the crypto community.
📰Fundamentally, Optimism has demonstrated its potential with a daily trading volume of $500 million across 38 markets. Now, let's shift our focus to the technical aspects. Nearly a year since its listing on Binance, Optimism reached its all-time high (ATH) of $4.865 in early 2024. Presently, after a corrective phase, it has found support around $1.8 and currently resides at approximately $2.77. The next significant resistance lies at $2.943, with expectations high for its eventual breach.
📈The weekly timeframe indicates an upward trend, despite a recent selloff candlestick accompanied by significant volume, suggesting the possibility of further upward movement if green volumes begin to increase. However, persistent selling volumes and the SMA25 acting as resistance, particularly aligning with the $2.943 level, present a formidable barrier that could impede price action.
🛒In the event of further correction, a buying opportunity may arise in the range of $1.97 to $2.3, but it's advisable to exercise patience and wait for candlestick confirmation before entering the market. Subsequently, lower timeframes such as the daily can provide additional confirmation for our buy signal.
✅Our initial target is set at the ATH, with further targets to be identified upon consolidation above this level, utilizing Fibonacci extensions to pinpoint higher targets and resistances. Regarding the RSI, maintaining support at 41.7 is crucial to avoid potential heavy bearish pressure on the coin.
📝In conclusion, Optimism (OP) coin presents a compelling opportunity for traders, supported by both fundamental strengths and promising technical indicators. Traders are advised to exercise caution, await confirmation signals, and implement effective risk management strategies to navigate the market successfully.
Easy money on Gold Sell setup!!! 200 PipsI just broke down the anlysis on gold for those who don't like to watch video this is a quick recap.
Gold market cycle 2020
--> Gold repeated the same move with curved formation, before a massive drop
--> Gold was at its all-time high at 2020 similar to now
--> Gold has reaccumulation phase in 2020 similar like what is happening with the third leg formation of Elliot wave theory
--> above all the risk to rewards look good to me
Follow me for more breakdown. please comment below if I should do more videos or normal written post or both
📈Potential Short Opportunity in FTM: Technical Analysis🔥🔍In today's analysis, we observe a continuation of yesterday's market movement, characterized by a minor downward trend. Yesterday's correctionary movement, as discussed in our previous analysis, has extended into the London time frame today. This movement has nullified all corrections suggested yesterday, indicating the potential for a second wave of decline in altcoins, notably in FTM/USD.
⚡️Our focus today is on positioning for a short trade in FTM/USD, leveraging a strong trigger point at $0.6267. This level currently serves as the coin's primary support, and should a candle close below this mark, it could signal a continuation of the downward movement. Our entry point for short positions aligns with this trigger, allowing us to capitalize on further market decline and potentially maximize profits.
✅The initial target for this short trade is identified at the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level, residing around $0.54. With the price having moved approximately 13% towards this target, setting a logical stop-loss can offer an attractive risk-reward ratio for our position. It's crucial to remain vigilant as the price approaches this support level, ensuring readiness to execute short positions upon confirmation of volume surges and support breaches.
📈From a wave perspective, this movement could potentially constitute a significant wave, necessitating full commitment to maintaining short positions in the event of a breakthrough at this critical support level. Volume indicators strongly suggest a bearish sentiment, with price showing a greater inclination towards decline rather than ascent. Therefore, it's reiterated to remain prepared to re-enter short positions upon volume surges and the breach of the $0.6267 support.
⏳Regarding timing, a period of rest appears adequate, as indicated by the SMA7 reaching candlesticks, potentially exerting downward pressure on the price. In the event of failure to do so, we may anticipate price consolidation until it aligns with the SMA25. Despite multiple attempts, the SMA99 has thus far maintained market bearishness, failing to stabilize above it despite three price encounters.
📝In conclusion, FTM/USD presents a compelling short opportunity, with technical indicators aligning for a potential continuation of the downward trend. Traders are advised to remain vigilant, adhere to risk management principles, and capitalize on short positions upon confirmation of key support breaches.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
TAP ( Coors Molson Miller ) Ready for Bullish Continuation?On the daily chart, TAP was on a good trend up heading into earnings which were favorable.
It is consolidated since just after earnings in a " high tight bull flag pattern" Volume has been
healthy with many buyers and seller trading shares in a tight range channel. The stochastic
RSI is now at about 20% indicating TAP is in the oversold / undervalued area. The optimized
artificial intelligence moving average indicator shows parallel rises in both the short and long
MAs ( neither divergence nor convergence just consistent ). This is a minor healthy pullback
and a good entry point.
Fundamentally, the summer beer- drinking season will soon arrive. TAP may be benefitting
from the BUD backlash over the Bud Lite endorsement controversy.
My call options have been appreciated 50% in the past 2 1/2 weeks ( 4% per trading day ).
I will roll them into the call options expiring 9/15/23. I consider TAP to be a steady
consistent gainer and likely more or less recession-proof.