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Volumeanalysis

Tesla's Capitulation Bottom and the Significance of VolumeTesla, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, has experienced various phases in its market cycles, including a significant capitulation bottom. By examining the chart, it becomes apparent that volume played a crucial role in identifying key turning points and understanding market dynamics. I'd like to explore Tesla's capitulation bottom, the importance of volume, and its implications during the mark-up phase of a market cycle. Capitulation Bottom and Volume Analysis During Tesla's consolidation period from February to April 2023, the orange volume moving average line shows consistently above-average volume, even as the average volume increased. This observation indicates heightened market participation and interest. The consolidation phase witnessed a slight decline in volume as buyer and seller activity subsided temporarily. However, this period of consolidation created confidence to market participants, suggesting that there were insufficient sellers to drive Tesla's price back to the January 2023 lows near $101. Consequently, bullish investors stepped in, initially with low volume, but with increasing volume over subsequent weeks. Climax Volume and Recent Concerns In the beginning of June, Tesla experienced a second price mark-up phase characterized by a climax in volume. However, the most concerning factor is the lack of volume observed last week. While it's important to note that it was a short trading week, it remains the lowest volume seen since December 2022. The lowest all year. Even the Christmas week in 2022 witnessed higher volume. Last week was associated with a breakout to add to injury. Last week, Tesla achieved fresh highs for 2023, and a price target of $300-$305 is anticipated in the upcoming week or shortly thereafter. However, if volume fails to increase in the following week, it could signal potential instability, necessitating a thorough assessment of positions. Understanding Volume in a Mark-Up Phase In market cycles, volume serves as a critical indicator during the mark-up phase. During this period, when prices rise steadily, increasing volume signifies growing market participation and confirms the strength of the bullish trend. Robust volume suggests conviction among buyers and sellers, validating the upward momentum. However, a decline in volume, particularly after a climax or surge, can raise concerns as it may indicate diminishing participation or waning bullish sentiment. It is important to remain vigilant during such periods and conduct risk checks to protect positions. Educational Insights Volume analysis is a vital component of technical analysis, enabling investors to understand market sentiment and validate price movements. In a mark-up phase, increasing volume demonstrates conviction, signaling the sustainability of the upward trend. Conversely, declining volume after a surge or climax may warrant caution and risk assessment . Traders and investors should consider volume alongside other technical indicators to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and make informed decisions. Tesla's journey has seen significant turning points, including a capitulation bottom, which can be identified by analyzing volume patterns. The consolidation period and subsequent mark-up phase provided insights into market participation and sentiment. Volume serves as a valuable tool to confirm trends and assess the strength of a market cycle. However, recent concerns arise from the lack of volume in the past week, warranting cautious monitoring and risk evaluation. By incorporating volume analysis into investment strategies and understanding its significance, traders and investors can enhance their decision-making processes and navigate Tesla's dynamic market with greater confidence.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bitdoctor
4
S&P500 I NOTICED A GOOD SELL AREAOn S&P500, we have a bullish setup with the price slightly retracing in the area around 4479 after touching highs at level 4645. Currently, there is an excellent reversal zone, a sell zone, at level 4525, where the price in H1 formed a strong supply level that had a significant impact on the price in the past week. In short, I'm waiting for a retracement to that level before entering a short position, aiming for a target around 4375, which corresponds to the previous major low. Let me know what you think. Have a great weekend! Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
UPWK - emerging from base (buy the dips)UPWK has been forming a base with neckline around 14.50 -15.35. Upon earnings announcement yesterday, it gapped up decisively on huge volume, rising a crazy 44%, and closing right at neckline. What is clear is that it could be near the end of its base building and could begin to start trending up in the coming weeks. The entry is tricky now due to its oversized move in a single day, hence I would prefer to see some pullback from here to look for opportunity to enter at the dips (fib-retracement level, candlestick reversal setups etc) A more conservative approach is long only when it has cleared the neckline above 15.35. It may sound counter-intuitive to buy at hgher prices but in actual the odds of a sustainable trend is also increased when the stock is able to clear a significant resistence (namely, the neckline). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:UPWKLong
by Juliac
4
EUR/USD BEARISH SETUP WAITING NFPWe have a bearish setup on the Euro Dollar, with the price currently located around 1.0945, practically retesting a block that previously acted as support and is now serving as resistance. The objective will be to look for a short entry in the golden square I have highlighted, as that area aligns with the 50-61 Fibonacci levels. However, please be cautious as today we have the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data release. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/CHF SHORT SETUP AFTER BOE NEWS I expect a strong Swiss Franc (CHF) against the British Pound (GBP) following recent events that have further weakened the US Dollar (USD). I anticipate a retracement to the 1.1130 level, where we have a Fibonacci retracement, and within that area, I will seek additional confirmation to enter a short position. Furthermore, after the interest rate hike in the UK and statements from the Bank of England's President, we have an additional motivational factor to short the British Pound (GBP). Please let me know your thoughts on this analysis. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/JPY BEARISH TRIANGLE AND LONG SETUPOn EURJPY, we can observe a descending triangle pattern, as the price generated a large bearish candle of over 80 pips around 9 o'clock on the H1 timeframe. Currently, the price is approaching a Forex48 block, which is a high reaction zone, especially if there's a double confirmation on the M15 timeframe. If this zone fails to halt the downtrend, the next potential target could be the level of 155.80, where we have a FVG (Financial Volume Grouping), indicating a significant support area. At this level, the price might find support and reverse upwards, targeting 157 to retest the lower boundary of the descending triangle. Your thoughts and analysis on this setup are welcomed. Happy trading to all!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD BEARISH SETUP - 1910 KEY LEVELOn gold, we have a bearish setup on both the weekly and daily charts. Occasionally, we have noticed that it is useful to look at clearer and more detailed timeframes. In both the weekly and daily charts, we precisely have a bearish setup with a resistance zone between 1960 and 2040. Within this zone, there is a demand area and a bearish trendline where the price has bounced before reversing course after a slight rally. Indeed, the price is now descending towards 1910, which is our key level that will act as support initially and then resistance once the price reaches the demand zone, which is between 1800 and 1840. We expect a rebound from that area with a target of 1910. Let us know what you think. Happy trading to everyone!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD BULLISH SETUP WITH NEGATIVE ADP On EUR/USD, we have a bullish setup in the H4 timeframe. The price is currently within a range between 1.0980 and 1.0280. The expectation is for a bounce from the lower side of the range, around the 1.0980 area, where we have a trendline support, a Fibonacci retracement level (FVG), and a 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as support. This could trigger the beginning of a long trade with a target at 1.11. This scenario might be further influenced by today afternoon's anticipated negative data from the United States, which could lead to a depreciation of the dollar. Let me know your thoughts. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD LONG SETUP WAITING NFPOn EUR/USD, we have a bearish setup with the price approaching the 1.0996 zone, where we encounter a strong resistance/support area supported by a demand zone in the H4 timeframe and a bullish trendline. At this point, the price could potentially rebound, with a possible target at 1.15, considering that the dollar is expected to adopt an extremely restrictive policy in the coming months, while the Eurozone might raise interest rates to at least 5%. I would appreciate your thoughts on this analysis. Happy trading to all!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD SHORT TRADE AFTER THREE H1 RE-TESTI took a position in the GBP/USD market after noticing a confirmed downside breakout below the Point of Control (PoC) followed by 3 re-tests this morning. The price closed below the level of 1.2854, and I decided to enter a short position (sell) as I believed there were good chances for the price to continue going down. My objective (target) was to capitalize on further downside movements and profit from the decrease in the GBP/USD exchange rate. I made the trade based on what was highlighted on the chart, which indicated promising opportunities for a short trade.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
INTC - Bullish CUP (and handle?)INTC first broke out of it's base neckline @30.50 (as well as it's 200 day Moving Average) on 29 March. However, its movement has been very erratic since. Last Friday's post earning's strong gap up changes the picture considerably IMO as it has now completed a "CUP" formation (a bullish pattern with higher odds of success). 2 possible scenario could happen next: 1. it breaks out of the CUP with hardly any pullback (ie no "handle" being formed) or, 2. it begins to from a "handle", which is likely to be a shallow 38.2% fib retracement towards 34.90 where it fills the recent gap. This level is just arbitrary but in any case, a pullback would provide a less risky opportunity to long (or add to) the stock with a stop just slightly below 33 (61.8% fib retracement). When the stock eventually breaks out of $39, then the next target @ $43 is in sight, although expect it to move in a zig zag fashion up. p/s targets are for shorter term traders, who may prefer to take profits and look for opportunity again during the next pullback. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by Juliac
GBP/USD LONG SETUP AFTER FED RATESGood morning traders, today I present this idea on GBP/USD. On this pair, we have a bullish setup after the news from Europe about the dollar. The market, while rising, broke through a supply zone, creating an important reaction area known as a "Forex48 block" on the M15 timeframe. If the price reaches this zone and provides the necessary confirmations on M15, I will enter a long position at the expected entry point around 1.293. The trade is currently aiming for a target of 1:6.5. Remember, patience is key, and confirmations are like nuggets of gold. Please share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Best regards from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
CAD/CHF WAITING FOR SHORT TRADEOn CAD/CHF, we have a bearish setup: there's a trendline supporting the price decline. The price at the level of 0.6540 has broken the low of July 21st, and what I expect is a retest of the break, and if there are operational confirmations, one could consider opening a short position. Personally, I don't have a strategic operation in this exchange. What I see is a truly strong Swiss franc in the last month, with a weak Canadian dollar, which is further amplified by a weak US dollar. This morning, the price broke another demand zone, supporting a bearish view. Tonight, we have the Fed rates, so keep an eye out for potential volatility. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
XAU/USD LONG TRADE BEFORE FED RATES On this trade, we have a bullish setup after the price broke a bullish trendline and bounced off the intersection of two trendlines. I positioned myself long exactly after an H1 confirmation at the 1955 level. I've set the target around 1990, where we have a FVG (Failed V-shaped pattern), which indicates a possible zone for a short trade in case there are appropriate confirmations. Leave a like and let me know your thoughts. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BOIL (3X Natural Gas ) Overnight Trade RecapAs a triple leveraged ETF BOIL is highly volatility and typically has a good range even if the overall price changes only a small amount from one day to the next. While these overnight day trades are typically conducted on the 3 or 5 minute time frame, here a 15- minute chart is shown. Because BOIL is tracking natural gas futures and the futures markets are around the clock , BOIL often has movement after-hours and in the pre-market while futures markets are active. In this example, the chart is dressed with double Bollinger band setup with deviations of 1.618 and 2 618 which are Fibonacci numbers. Relative volatility and relative volumes are indicated as well to be better attentive to reversals or trending amplitudes. In this example at about 12N on yesterday 7/24, price dropped out of the bands volume and volatility went red to green and the candlesticks formed a morning star pattern. This is the entry. The stop loss is placed just below the lowest bottoming wick in the pattern. Today, in the premarket, when the price rose to outside the upper trade zone and green bars on the volatility and volume indicators fell quickly, the trade was closed for a realized profit of 4.7%. About 90 minutes later, another long trade was set up for a more than 4% five hour day trade. Rinse and repeat DYODD !
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani