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Volumeanalysis

Does History Repeat Itself? How Far Can the Nasdaq Fall?Let's examine the current 2025 correction on a logarithmic chart: the price movements show significant similarities to the February 2020 decline. At that time, the global crisis—then driven by COVID-19 panic—fundamentally influenced market movements, while now, trade uncertainties are generated by President Trump's aggressive tariff announcements. The chart reveals that the Nasdaq is declining steeply, and technical levels play a decisive role: yesterday, the price bounced back from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it is clear that supporting technical indicators—such as the break of the RSI convergence trend on the days triggering the decline—confirm the downward movement. In the earlier 2020 decline, massive volume accompanied the initial weeks' movements, while this year's movement is characterized by steadily increasing volume. Nevertheless, the current volume peak falls short of the peak measured in the 2020 week (4.45 million vs. 6.8 million), indicating that the trend may continue with further declines. Overall, technical analysis—the examination of logarithmic charts, the break of the RSI trend, and volume movements—suggests that the current correction may deepen further, and the Nasdaq's target price can be estimated between 14,500 and 15,000 points. Observing a similar scenario in history, when global events triggered high volatility, it appears that market reactions now do not differ from past patterns. If the current negative trend continues, a further deepening of the correction is plausible, as the lag in market volume (4.45M vs. 6.8M) indicates that investors have not yet been able to offset the negative sentiment prevailing in the sector.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by jpsatrio
1
Watching For Consolidation, Correction or ContinuationWeekly: Price took out old swing low after a lower low was printed — confirming bearish intent. However, price is now inside a new HTF support zone. MACD remains bearish, signaling potential continuation lower, but watch for possible slowdown or divergence signs in this zone. Daily: Structure is firmly bearish — lower low confirmed. MACD bearish and showing momentum strength — favors continuation lower unless lower timeframes suggest a deeper correction. 4H: Bearish convergence confirmed — price action aligns with HTF bearish bias. However, current price action is corrective/bullish — likely a pullback within a bearish trend. MACD still bearish but weakening — signals caution for late shorts, or potential for deeper retracement. 1H: Monday's failure to make a new low overnight hinted early market structure shift — bullish correction in play. MACD turned bullish into Friday's POC, and price rallied into 4H bearish imbalance above it. Currently: 1H hidden bearish convergence developing — early sign correction may exhaust. MACD weakening — signals reduced bullish momentum. Key overnight scenarios: Consolidation near current highs (distribution?) Continuation of bullish correction into deeper supply Bearish continuation if sellers step in aggressively from imbalance zone
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by martiedirect
Cardano (ADA) Long using Lesson 15 MethodologyAlready first target was hit and moved stop loss to BE. Lesson 15 Methodology: 1. Largest Down wave on support (could have buyers in there) 2. Place AVWAP at the beginning of the down wave 3. Wait for price to cross upwards the AVWAP and pull back to it. 4. Wait for a Plutus long signal where in this case it was a PRL and up we go! Now this huge pin with the enormous volume worries me for sellers but since we got 1st target and stop is at BE I will let it run.
Long
by TradeTheVolumeWaves
GBPUSD FORECASTIn this analysis we're focusing on 4H time frame for GBPUSD. As we know that market trend was bullish and today I'm looking for a buy side opportunity. According to my analysis, if the market price wants to continue its move to the upside, it will need to first retest the key levels drawn on the chart before it can continue its upward movement. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Always remember when price reaches our key levels wait for confirmation. After confirmation execute your trades. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #GBPUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
1
#BTC/USD ANALYSIS. (BULLISH)Bitcoin Price Action Analysis. The Next Big Move? Bitcoin is moving within an ascending channel, showing strong bullish momentum! However, a key decision point is approaching as the price nears a critical support zone (highlighted in blue). If BTC holds above this level, we could see a strong push towards the $91,500 resistance and potentially break into the $94,700 range. A well structured risk-to-reward setup is in play, with a potential bullish breakout targeting new highs. Will BTC sustain its momentum, or will we see a retracement before the next leg up? Stay sharp and trade wisely! We will execute our trades only after receiving bullish confirmation. Use proper stoploss and proper money management. This is just my analysis. Observe the behavior of price how it will react. #BTCUSD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
1
LTC Targets $70: A High-Probability Reversal SetupLitecoin (LTC) has just broken below the critical $80 low, signaling that bearish pressure is firmly in control. Currently trading at $79—just beneath the swing low at $80—LTC is also sitting below the monthly open at $82.98. With the bears flexing their dominance, traders are left wondering: Where does the price head next? What’s the target for the bears, and where can bulls find an opportunity to re-enter the market? Let’s dive into the charts, pinpoint the key levels, and craft a plan that could turn this downturn into a golden opportunity. The Current Market Picture LTC’s recent breach of $80 confirms the bearish momentum that’s been brewing since its peak at $147.06 on December 5, 2024. Litecoin enjoyed a stellar 122-day bullish run, soaring +195% from $49.80 to high at $147.06. Now, we’re on the 122nd day of a downtrend—a poetic symmetry that hints at a potential turning point. The question is: where will this descent find its floor, and how can we position ourselves for what’s next? Support Zone: The $70 Fortress To identify a robust support zone, we need confluence—multiple technical factors aligning to form a level that’s tough to crack. Here’s what the chart reveals: Fibonacci Retracement: Using the Fib tool from the 2024 low at $49.80 to the high at $147.06, the 0.618 retracement at $86.95 has already been lost, turning our focus to the 0.786 level at $70.61. This deep retracement is a classic spot for reversals, making it a prime candidate for a support zone. Yearly Level: At $70.14, this pivot is nearly identical to the 0.786 Fib level, adding significant weight to the area. Volume Profile: The Point of Control (POC) from a 1.5-year trading range sits right around $70, just above the Fib level. This is the price with the highest traded volume over that period—a natural magnet for price action. Yearly Order Block: Visualized as a green channel, this order block reinforces the $70 zone, suggesting past institutional buying interest or significant support. Together, these factors create a $70 support zone that’s brimming with confluence. It’s not just a random level—it’s a fortress where bulls could mount a serious stand. Long Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: Use a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) approach to build your position. Start with small buys around $75, laddering down to $70, and increase your position size as price nears the core of the support zone. Aim for an average entry of $73/72. Stop Loss (SL): Set it below $68 to protect against a deeper breakdown while giving the trade room to breathe. Take Profit (TP): First Target: $80 (the swing low and monthly open not far off). Main Target: $100 (a key psychological and resistance zone). Risk-to-Reward (R:R): With an average entry at $73 and SL at $68, you’re risking $5 to gain $27 (to $100)—a stellar 5:1 R:R or better. This is a high-probability setup that rewards patience. Execution Tip: Watch for bullish signals in the $70-$75 range—candlestick pattern, volume spikes, or RSI divergence. This isn’t about chasing; it’s about precision. Resistance Zone: The $100 Battleground If bulls reclaim control and push LTC higher, the $100 psychological level looms as a major resistance zone. Here’s why it’s a HOTSPOT: Yearly Open: At $103.28, this level is close enough to $100 to bolster its significance. Anchored VWAP: Drawn from the 2024 low at $49.80, the VWAP currently sits around $102.4, adding another layer of resistance. Historical Context: The $100 mark has been a recurring battleground, with bulls and bears clashing repeatedly. It’s a price that carries weight. A rally to $100 wouldn’t just be a recovery—it’d be a statement. A clean break above could hint at a broader trend reversal, but until then, it’s a ceiling to respect. What’s Next? Bears vs. Bulls For now, the bears are driving LTC lower, with the break below $80 opening the door to the $70 support zone. That’s their likely target—a level where selling pressure could exhaust itself. For bulls, $70 isn’t just a floor; it’s a launchpad. The DCA long setup offers a low-risk, high-reward entry. Wrapping It Up Litecoin’s drop from $147.06 to $79 has been brutal, but the chart is screaming opportunity. The $70 zone—backed by Fibonacci, levels, volume, and order blocks—is where bulls could turn the tide. With a DCA entry at around $73/72, SL below $68, and a main target at $100, you’ve got a trade setup that could deliver a 5:1 payoff. Meanwhile, $100 stands as the bears’ next big test if momentum shifts. So, will you wait for LTC to hit $70 and strike, or watch the action unfold? The levels are clear—now it’s your move. Use this analysis to sharpen your edge, and let’s see where Litecoin takes us in the days, weeks, and months ahead. ________________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know, I’m here to break down the charts you want to see. Happy trading =)
Long
by SiDec
1
#LAYERUSDT setup remains active 📉 LONG MEXC:LAYERUSDT.P from $1.5722 🛡 Stop loss: $1.5440 🕒 Timeframe: 1H ✅ Market Overview: ➡️ The coin is showing "its own game" — price action is independent of #BTC and #ETH, reacting to internal volume dynamics. ➡️ Ascending triangle breakout with a confirmed close above the key $1.5440 zone. ➡️ Empty space ahead — no major resistance levels until $1.6060–$1.6210. ➡️ Accumulation is forming between $1.5440–$1.5700 — a breakout may follow. ➡️ Important: candles must close above $1.5440 to confirm the long scenario. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP1: $1.5880 💎 TP2: $1.6060 💎 TP3: $1.6210 (full measured move from triangle pattern) 📢 Recommendations: If volume MEXC:LAYERUSDT.P increases during a breakout above $1.5722 — expect a rapid move. If price pulls back — the $1.5254 area could offer a second entry opportunity. The coin looks strong but slightly overbought — partial take profit at TP1 is advised. 📢 A strong breakout above $1.5700 may lead to a sharp move due to lack of resistance. 📢 Avoid 1H candle close below $1.5440 — scenario invalidation. 📢 If the move occurs on weak volume — watch for a potential reversal near TP1. 🚀 MEXC:LAYERUSDT.P setup remains active — holding the key level could lead to a move toward TP2–TP3!
Long
by MoriartyTrading
GBP/JPY SELL SETUP 250 PIPS1️⃣ Macro Fundamental Analysis (GBP vs. JPY) 🔹 Interest Rate Differentials (Carry Trade Impact) Bank of England (GBP) The BoE has kept rates high to fight inflation. Higher GBP rates → capital inflows into GBP assets. Bullish for GBP/JPY. Bank of Japan (JPY) BoJ is still ultra-dovish, keeping negative/low interest rates. Japan’s government wants a weak yen to support exports. Bearish for JPY, Bullish for GBP/JPY (carry trade flows into GBP). 📊 Institutional View: Hedge funds & large investors prefer long GBP/JPY due to high interest rate spreads. GBP/JPY remains fundamentally bullish due to carry trade inflows. 🔹 Global Risk Sentiment (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) GBP/JPY is a "risk-on" pair → it rises when markets are bullish and falls when investors seek safety. If stock markets are bullish, GBP/JPY tends to rise. If there’s a global crisis, investors move into JPY (safe-haven), causing GBP/JPY to fall. Current Market Sentiment: Stock markets are uncertain, but no full risk-off move yet. Watch equity markets & US bond yields for risk sentiment confirmation. 📊 Institutional View: Mild risk-on bias → GBP/JPY has support, but volatility remains high. 🔹 Institutional Positioning (COT Data & Hedge Fund Flows) Hedge funds have been buying GBP against JPY due to the rate differential. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Shows institutional investors are still net long GBP/JPY but reducing positions. Some profit-taking could lead to short-term downside. 📊 Institutional View: Long-term institutional bias is bullish, but hedge funds may reduce positions if risk-off sentiment increases. 2️⃣ Technical Analysis (ITPM Style) – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown 🔹 GBP/JPY (Daily Timeframe) 📈 Trend: Still in an uptrend, but approaching resistance. 📌 Key Resistance: 195.00 - 196.00 📌 Key Support: 191.00 - 190.00 🔹 Price is struggling at resistance near 194.00. 🔹 Possible pullback to 191.50 - 192.00 before resuming higher. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H4 Timeframe) 📉 Short-Term Weakness, but Still in an Uptrend Channel 📌 Key Level to Watch: 192.50 - 193.00 🔹 Bearish Rejection at 194.00, but still inside an uptrend structure. 🔹 If price breaks below 192.50, a deeper correction to 191.00 is likely. 🔹 GBP/JPY (H1 Timeframe) 📉 Intraday Weakness, Watch 192.50 for Breakdown 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 193.50 - 194.00 Support: 192.50 (short-term support), 191.50 (stronger support) 📊 Institutional View: Intraday traders may take short positions below 192.50, targeting 191.50 - 191.00. 3️⃣ Institutional Trade Setup (ITPM Style) 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Correction) Entry: Sell below 192.50 (Break of key support). Target: 191.50 → 190.00 (support zone). Stop-Loss: Above 193.50. Rationale: Short-term hedge funds taking profits → minor pullback in bullish trend.
Short
by ShinForex1
DODGE - Short - This is how to read the short using Lesson 15Lesson 15 Methodology: 1. Fib 61.8 (sellers might come in on this level) 2. Highest up volume wave after a while (probable sellers inside) 3. Anchor AWVAP at the beginning of the up volume wave. Wait for price to cross downward and then pull back. 4. Highest down volume wave after a long time (sellers) 5. Price respects AVWAP acting as resistance 6. Enter Short on one more confirmation of weakness - Plutus Short signal PS ...and down we go!!! Enjoy!
by TradeTheVolumeWaves
Why eurgbp will sell this newyork session!!In my analysis, we are observing signs of weakness in the Euro, as indicated by recent candlestick formations that reflect a notable lack of buying pressure. This behavior appears to be aligning with key Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting a potential transition towards lower price levels. I anticipate that in the pre-New York session, we may witness a temporary fake-out before a subsequent downward movement. Traders should exercise caution and consider these factors in their decision-making process Follow me for more breakdown!!
by ShinForex1
ES Futures Weekly Trade Plan & Navigating Turbulent Waters CME_MINI:ES1! Macro Analogy The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined investors who are waiting for a clearer signal on where to allocate capital. Looking at the market action, the low on March 13th, 2025, could mark a point of sector reallocation. Specifically, the Russell 2000 index is currently leading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trailing behind. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment from large-cap stocks to smaller, potentially more dynamic sectors. In the backdrop, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may help clarify their position on the evolving macroeconomic situation, notably the persistent risk of stagflation. The challenge for central banks is becoming increasingly apparent: balancing rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and slowing growth while striving to meet their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. These pressures are intensifying the difficulty of effective policymaking. If we liken the US administration to a ship navigating through turbulent waters, the Federal Reserve could be seen as a submarine working behind the scenes to stabilize and support the administration. Chair Jerome Powell, at the controls, is leveraging all available tools to ensure financial stability. Meanwhile, at the helm of the ship is the US President, whose decisions and actions impact the broader economic environment, either calming or exacerbating the turbulence. The new adventures of the Gulf of America have entered uncharted territory. In this context, last week's actions, slowing the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT)served as the "carrot," aimed at cushioning the economic pain despite worsening economic forecasts. However, the message that FED sounded was that, due to uncertainty, our forecasts are subject to change. Take them with a pinch of salt. ES Futures Big Picture: The ES futures market is currently testing key resistance levels, and this zone will serve as a critical inflection point for both bulls and bears. The next steps will likely hinge on the clarity emerging from both macro events and Fed commentary. Key Levels to Watch: • Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25 • Key LIS (Last Important Support/Resistance): 5850–5860 • Low Volume Node (LVN): 5770–5760 • Neutral Zone: 5705–5720 • Key Support Mid-Range 2024: 5626.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value): 5505.25 • 2022 CVAH (Composite Value at High): 5341 Scenario 1: Rejection at Key Resistance In this scenario, we expect rejection at the key LIS levels, with further consolidation below the 5850–5860 range before the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. This could lead to a retracement back toward the LVN area (5770–5760) and a potential drop to the neutral zone around 5705–5720. Scenario 2: Market Participants Expecting Less Severe Tariffs Should market participants anticipate less severe reciprocal tariffs than initially planned, but remain uncertain about the broader macroeconomic picture, we could see the price push above the key LIS levels. This would likely result in a consolidation phase until more clarity emerges, with the market continuing to trade in a volatile range above key LIS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
USDJPY SELL SETUP!!From a technical perspective, examining the USD/JPY chart, we might notice that prices are forming a lower high, which often indicates a potential downtrend. The price respecting Fibonacci retracement levels can also suggest that the market is reacting to key support and resistance levels. When traders see the price approaching these levels and behaving predictably, it can bolster their confidence in the direction of their trades. Overall, the expectation is for a continuing strength in the yen, especially if the market sentiment remains focused on potential rate hikes from the Fed. This scenario might lead to more bearish moves for the USD/JPY pair, making it important to watch for any significant economic data releases or comments from central bank officials that could signal changes in monetary policy.
Short
by ShinForex1
3
GOLD 1-H ROUTE MAPToday, we are analyzing the 1-hour time frame chart for Gold. My bias for today is on the buy side, based on market structure mapping and the SMC concept. Once the market price reaches my key levels, I will wait for confirmation according to my rules and strategy. At the same time, I will keep an eye on the volume and RSI indicators to find a strong confirmation and execute my trade with precision. The market will not move higher until it hunts its full SSL. And if we decide to buy from here, the first resistance we will face will be around the 2888-90 area, and the second resistance will be near the 2895-2900 price range. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis not financial advice. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
1
GBP/JPY TODAY EXPECTED MOVERight now, we are analyzing the GBPJPY 1-hour time frame chart. My bias for today is towards the sell side, and I will be looking to sell the market today. As you can see on the chart, these are our key levels. Once the market price reaches our key levels and POI, we will wait for confirmation whether the price shows a bearish confirmation or forms a reversal candlestick pattern, so we can find the ideal entry point for our trade and execute it with precision. The most important thing to remember is to always wait for confirmation. Make sure to always use a stop loss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis. Let's see what happens. #GBPJPY 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
Short
by TradeTacticsreal
1
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3
BTCUSDT: Signals a 2-Week Retest—Trend Still Alive BTC’s been wild, but zoom out to the 2-week chart— we’ve got a solid uptrend with higher highs and lows. Last week’s dip isn’t a reversal—it’s a retest of the 50-day EMA (around $64.8k as of March 10, 2025). Volume’s thinning, RSI’s looks oversold. Indicators flashed a ‘hold’ here—no sell signal yet, which tells me the trend’s got legs or at least a bounce. Bullish Case : If BTC holds the retested level (e.g., a prior resistance-turned-support), it could resume upward momentum. A two-week stabilization suggests accumulation, and a break above the recent high could target the next psychological level (e.g., $90,000). Bearish Risk : If the retest fails—price breaks below the key level with high volume—it could signal a deeper correction, potentially revisiting lower supports (e.g., $70,000 or $60,000). A two-week trend turning into a failed retest might indicate profit-taking or macroeconomic pressure with all the news. It's worth just taking a zoomed out look, no panic just yet and let it play out a little more.
by rarePear93026