Stock Market Logic Series #10Do you think the above is a coincidence?
There are no coincidences in life - only cause and effect.
You are where you are because of a cause that is bound to physical and natural laws.
The same pressure of physics that works on the airplane wing, or the balloon that wants to push its way up when pressed into water (pool), also works in the stock market.
You just have to KNOW how to SEE it. follow my explanation.
If you follow the price action, you can see clearly where the high-pressure volume comes in, you can't miss it. It is obviously seen.
Then you need to wait for the correction, and you want to see that the correction is demonstrating a low-volume pressure behavior.
When you see this low volume pressure behavior, the stock has DRIED UP.
This DRYING-UP effect is a key indicator of a probable future LIFT and stock movement.
You want to ask yourself the question:
Why the stock is not falling down anymore?
The question of "WHY" is searching for the cause BEHIND the stock movement.
The stock movement is only the effect!
In previous posts, I explained the other LOGIC behind this pattern, and explained why the price should not fall down and with a high probability of going up.
If you read any of the books of Jesse Livermore, he clearly states that you need to "KNOW" that the stock will move your way, first let the market "SHOW YOU" exactly what will happen, and only then you put in a trade.
The KEY CONCEPT in this idea is the DRYING UP OF VOLUME.
When you understand the WHY behind the stock movement, buying and selling are emotionless.
The focus should be only a trading setups that you "KNOW" it is highly probable to move in your expected trade direction. You "KNOW" because you have stock market LOGIC to back it up.
If you want a specific post about Jesse Livermore's trading rules, let me know in the comments.
It is always important to make sure that you have the correct perspective on the stock market, otherwise, you get confused. There is only at every given time only ONE side to the market as Jesse Livermore said, "The RIGHT SIDE". This goes back to my idea, that at every given time the puppet master ONLY buys or sells but NOT BOTH.
Volumeanalysis
BTC AnalysisHello Friends,
Right now, BINANCE:BTCUSDT roams around the POC. I recommend waiting until the price starts to move away from POC.
If price reach 61-62000 area and volume jumped, we can think about opening short trade (54000 is the TARGET)
In case BTC drop from here, 54000 should be a good area to take long trade!
Gold ready for a meltdown Sell Now!!So as we are approaching this week's NFP report which will give a clear indication of either a soft landing or a hard landing I expect Gold to have a slight retracement as it is currently facing some resistance and has broken out of the ascending triangle so our target will be at the h4 tradeline
Follow more for quickly analysis
Happy Labor day SPY Lovers ! (4hr Chart Analysis)This is our 4-hour chart, and as you can see, I am linking it with the daily chart I published earlier.
What I want you to notice is the number of orders positioned at 544.58. We must take into account that on our daily chart, this is the second time the price has activated the institutional order block, and there was no intention of a breakout; it was simply rejected as we predicted last week.
The price on the 4-hour chart has only moved within a range and hasn't been able to surpass all-time highs yet. Looking at the chart, it gives me the impression that it might reject again.
No one knows what will happen; this is an analysis based on historical movements, price action, and smart money concepts.
Let’s see what Tuesday brings, but for now, enjoy your Labor Day!
Cheers, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Technical Analysis on Alibaba (BABA)Alibaba ( BABA ) has been in a long-term downtrend that began in October 2020. In the medium term, however, the price has entered a phase of compression, suggesting a possible pause or reversal of the trend.
Analyzing the volumes using the Volume Profile, we can see that the price is currently caught between two key Points of Control (POC):
POC 1: A significant volume level that considers the entire historical data of the stock, located around the $80 area.
POC 2: A medium-term POC that reflects the current phase of compression.
Bullish Scenario:
To consider a potential bullish scenario, it will be necessary to wait for the price to reach POC 1, located around the $80 area, followed by a breakout and a possible retest of the descending trendline. The first significant resistance and target for this bullish scenario is around the $120 area.
Bearish Scenario:
For a continuation of the downtrend, it is important to monitor the price in relation to the two POCs. If the price drops below both levels and breaks the ascending line, with a possible retest, we could see an extension of the downward movement.
Technical Analysis on AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)Analyzing the historical performance of AMD , a key turning point is evident that marked the beginning of the current bullish phase—starting at the end of 2015. During this period, the stock held an important support level, followed by a decisive breakout of the bearish trendline.
On a daily timeframe, this breakout was accompanied by a gap up, known as a breakaway gap.
During the upward phase, the stock experienced pullbacks ranging from 40% to 60%. The most recent pullback, which began with a Shooting Star candle, was 45% and stopped precisely at a crucial Fibonacci level of 0.618.
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, AMD must first surpass the $160 area and then the $190 area, a range characterized by significant volumes.
Bearish Scenario:
If the stock fails to exceed these two levels, it could continue its retracement by breaking the ascending trendline. Two potential entry levels can be found in the POC area around $180 and the support area around $95.
SPY shows signs of breakthough to the upsideSPY recent day of trading gave an overall picture that this flat trading is coming to close with a potential rally coming.
Gapped up for second time in the 2 days
Sold off slowly with low volume
The rally in late day spurred by smart money with increasing volume
Stock breaks through upper resistance for first time
SPY is showing a strong bullish signal indicating a longer term rally to come
QQQ gives more strength to its bullish turn aroundToday QQQ started with another gap up breakout for the 2cd day in a row. Stock retraced then rallied again in the late day.
Stock gapped up again doing another breakout weakening the week long sell off trend.
Retracement that was expected sold off less and at slower pass than the day before
Late day smart money jumped in and pushed the stock to higher highs
Volume experienced a massive spike in last moments of trading which can be indication of price exhaustion. This should cause a temporary pull back next trading day
Overall the bull thesis for QQQ is getting stronger each day.
Technical Analysis on Intel (INTC)Using long-term volume analysis with the Volume Profile, we observe that Intel's ( INTC ) current price has moved below a significant monthly Point of Control (POC). To gain a clearer perspective, it will be crucial to wait for the monthly close to determine whether the price remains above or below this POC level.
By zooming in to the daily or H4 timeframe, we notice a potential rounding formation in both the candlesticks and volume, indicating a possible shift in trend direction.
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish scenario, it will be necessary to wait for a monthly close above the POC. This signal will be strengthened if the volumes increase as well.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price stays below the POC, the bearish scenario suggests potential targets, as illustrated in the image below. It may be possible to consider short entries at the levels indicated as Target 2 and Target 3.
SMH shows signs of bullish turn aroundSMH experiences a false breakout and tries to sustain it for a few periods with increased volume
SMH experiences first false breakout above
Tries to hold higher levels outside resistance
Increased volume is accompanied with this breakout
This gives a signal that bear drawdown has weakness in it and bulls maybe taking over soon.
SPY shows more interest in rallying than beforeSPY is starting to show more signs that a breakout above the flat trading its in is coming
We see increased volume over peaks of previous rallies indicating agreement with pushing up prices
RSI's SMA starts to break through the 50 line
comparing to the QQQ, its experiences another false breakout above for the second day in a row. Showing the tech sector is attempting to turn around to the upside
SPY continues to still trade flat but show more confidence in its small rallies than previously
QQQ looks to break into bullish territoryQQQ again breaks out above the longer resistance line to test new more bullish grounds
For the second day in a row QQQ breaks above the long term downward resistance line
This breakout is accompanied with increased volume over yesterday while trading in the higher zone
RSI breaks above SMA during this time
RSI's SMA been flat to trending slightly updward
The bulls are looking to be taking over in the near future showing further weakness in this sell off.
QQQ showing more selling to comeQQQ throws signals that bears are still firmly in control and the downward trend should continue
QQQ tests major resistance line, fails to breakthrough
During recovery in late day trading volume steadily decreases showing disagreement in recovery
After hours shows a significant sell off which has recovered some since.
RSI falls in step with price showing no signs of reversal coming
Next major support line is around 463
Today marked the first day of strong downward trading breaking through support and holding. We are looking at more selling to come
TON/USDT Trading ScenarioThe decline in the TON value following the arrest of the founder of Telegram and the TON platform mirrors the scenario of BNB's price drop after the arrest of Binance's CEO.
At that time, BNB lost over 30% of its value, then entered a sideways trend. However, with the start of BTC's rise at the end of December, the asset's price not only recovered but also surged by more than 280%.
In the case of TON, we are observing a similar situation, making the current price attractive, while any further decline provides an additional opportunity to increase returns. The TON network and the Telegram messenger are fundamental factors contributing to the trust in this asset.
Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas!
Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets.
S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs!
The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between.
If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you.
How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup!
Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade:
1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend.
- Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume.
2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue).
- Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day.
- Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP.
- Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event.
3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1.
- Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free.
- Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle.
4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run.
- Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading.
Always Have a Plan B!
Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup.
In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist:
1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range.
- Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred.
2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP.
- Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile.
3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1.
- Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position.
4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time.
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Conclusion and Recommendation
By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses.
Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it.
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ARB/USDT 15m / D BB & FVG / ELLIOT / LIQUIDATIONS / FIBOAccording to higher timeframes, the market sentiment is bullish. We are moving within an ascending channel with the potential to rise to 0.7416. To increase the probability of this outcome, the price needs to establish itself above the ascending channel.
Locally, within the range of the daily breaker block (D BB) and the daily imbalance (D FVG), three potential entry points are visible:
1. Liquidity grab (Sellside liquidity)
2. 0.5 Fibo
3. 0.618 Fibo / bottom of the ascending channel
4. The target is the local high, which is at the midline of the channel.
Locally, based on the EFIATR oscillator, volume, and liquidation levels, there is a likelihood of growth. According to Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave pattern and an ABC correction in the 4th wave are visible, which further increases the probability of upward movement.
Technical Analysis on PayPal (PYPL)PayPal ( PYPL ) has experienced a medium-term negative trend, losing over 80% from its 2021 highs. This downtrend developed after the formation of a Double Top chart pattern.
Currently, the price is near a key resistance area at $70 (marked as Res 1), highlighted in purple. In the past, this zone acted as support (green arrows), and more recently, it has been serving as resistance, with the price being rejected twice (red arrows).
In the short term, the stock is showing a slightly positive formation, with an ascending triangle pattern taking shape. Additionally, the price is positioned above the main Point of Control (POC), considering the entire volume history.
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish scenario, the stock needs to break above the $70 resistance area (Res 1). If successful, it could progressively reach $100 and subsequently $120. Above this level, there are inefficient zones with low volume where the stock could potentially extend further.
Bearish Scenario:
If the stock fails to break the first resistance and falls below the POC area, it could resume its downtrend, targeting the first support area around $40 in stages.
CRV/USDT Trading ScenarioOver the past 820 days, CRV has been in a steady accumulation phase, as indicated by volume profile analysis. In early August of this year, the asset reached a new all-time low at $0.1794. This decline led to a significant increase in buying volumes, signaling strong investor interest and active accumulation of positions.
The volume profile analysis reveals a concentration of trading volumes in this price zone, which is characteristic of an accumulation phase. The continuous price decline, coupled with rising buying volumes, suggests that the asset may be preparing for potential future growth.
Considering the current accumulation phase and the increasing interest from buyers, it can be inferred that the asset is on the verge of potential growth.
SWING IDEA - CAMLINFINENSE:CAMLINFINE seems to be gaining good volume since the last few weeks. If this continues and if it breaks the nearest Resistance Level at 125, it could go up easily all the way till the next Support/Resistance level at 153.
So far MACD seems to be playing out well and could indicate the stock is ready to go up further from here.
We just need to hope that the market plays out well in the coming weeks in order for this setup to be fruitful.
ZEN/USDT Trading ScenarioZEN has been trading within a sideways range for over 630 days, hovering near price lows around the $5.52 mark. During this period, significant volume accumulation has been observed, as confirmed by the volume profile. Additionally, a notable increase in trading volume has occurred during the formation of this range. As the accumulation phase nears its end, with the onset of altcoin season, there is potential for an upward breakout and subsequent strong price growth. In the current price zone, a buying opportunity may be considered, holding the main position until the 0.5 Fibonacci level or higher, with partial profit-taking along the way.