Will 3 Times Be The Charm For GBPUSD??We can see FX:GBPUSD retrace a tad further up to the Volume Imbalance that was created over the weekend of April 4th - 7th. After Price made its High @ 1.3207, it was immediately rejected back down below the Past Level of Support that is now showing signs of Resistance!
- Following that Higher High not only resulted in a Lower Low but also sent the RSI under 50 into Bearish Territory!
Now in the ICT Methodology of Volume Imbalances, Price is likely to Test or Fill the Imbalance, then once satisfied, has a high potential to turn the opposite direction. Now a Pullback to Fill the Imbalance would land Price right at the 38.2% Fibonacci Level @ 1.28984 where if Bulls are unable to push Price back above, would be an excellent Shorting Opportunity for Bears to overcome.
- RSI is now below the 50 suggesting Bulls have lost steam and strengthens the potential for more downside to occur but that would call for a Break and Retest Scenario on the Rising Support.
Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve will be releasing the CPI y/y and m/m results where analysts believe there to be a .3% decrease in inflation forecasting a 2.5% CPI for March from the previous 2.8% for February. Given this, the FOMC " do not plan to come to rescue Trump with rate cuts" and insist that all the Tariff pressure will actually be a reasoning for Inflation to Rise! So if CPI ends up printing Hotter than Expected (Higher), we could see a renewed strength in the USD.
Volumeimbalance
Key spot on the board for SOFI On the MonthlyNever financial advice. Just offering perspective.
At a key spot for Sofi. In the midst of a monthly bearish imbalance, specifically a bearish fair value gap which holds more weight than a volume imbalance. We pushed off a bullish breaker which can be a solid indicator as a push up, with the the high of that green box acting as a support, followed by a strong bullish move.
16.47-17.13 is where the monthly bearish fvg begins and ends.
A monthly close(13days) above 17.13 would be encouraging for bulls, with no bearish imbalances on this higher timeframe.
If we cannot get a monthly candle close above 17.13 we can see a strong rejection, setting a new bullish range from most recent low to high, which we can then see a move back into discount.
My ideal bearish outlook: Monthly bearish imbalance reject, which is currently at 50% bearish discount, to retest bullish breaker + bullish fvg + monthly liquidity sitting at the low of previous month10.63. Targeting ----> 8.53- 10.63.
Ideal bullish outlook(continuation):
Monthly bearish imbalance mitigated here with a monthly candle close above here. Next points of liquidity ---24.65---24.95 as targets.
Ideal bullish outlook(entry or reentry):
Entering ----> 8.53- 10.63.
Be aware that this analysis is on a higher timeframe of a Monthly perspective and may take time to develop.
July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support.
-We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg.
-July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency.
~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing.
~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24
~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August.
~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31
**B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF.
**Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
EURJPYPrice for the first time reached a very old volume imbalance since the market crash of 2008.
Inside the V.E we have a 4H rsi divergence and two 4H balanced price points where i want to see price respect them if my short bias is correct.
Price forms a typical OHLC week with a creation of a bearish flag.
All these confluences lead to a short bias.
$ES New All Time High ExpectedOur projected path for CME_MINI:ES1! to take out the January 2022 High which also happens to be the All Time High. We are using a range from a Weekly Volume Imbalance and a Weekly Bullish Order Block combined to give us a price range between $4190-$4288 to find long positions. This price range is also in a discount for the current weekly price leg; giving us more reason to look for buying opportunities here. Look for price to reach this are late August or early September. We will post a smaller time frame once we get into this area and we see a favorable trade. We will take a small swing position but we are more excited to ride the price legs to the new high through intraday trading. We have used Fibonacci Projections to give us $4854 as our first target.
Just for fun we want to call $5092 as the 2023 High of The Year. Leave your best guesses for the 2023 High below :)
Happy Trading,
BlackOakCapital
ES AnalysisES inside the 4h FVG and 4h Breaker Block.
Sunday Open:
1) Possible pullback to the 15m Breaker Block and bounce to the 4147-4153.25 will be great to see.
There is 1h Breaker Block (4149.50-4153.25).
Break above 4166 should offer the test of the daily Volume Imbalance at 4179.50-4185.75.
2) Failure to hold 4h Breaker Block should offer short opportunity to the 4h OB. 4087.25-4079.75 where 4079.75 is mean threshold of this Order Block.
ESM2023 Possible ScenariosOld Daily Volume Imbalance (4133-4136) became as support. Break below 4133 will open the room to the 4h Breaker Block - 4115.00-4105.00.
Hold of Sunday Open Level can bring us to the 4167. There is another daily volume imbalance at 4179-4185.
Keep my eyes on 4191 - Next BSL after break of the 4167.