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Volumepriceanalysis

GBP/USD: PAT + VPA 11/02/2024Good morning, The GBP/USD currency pair continues to exhibit characteristics indicative of a sustained bearish trend, currently favoring the U.S. Dollar. Several analytical indicators support this assessment: 1. The weekly chart for GBP/USD has been in a downward trajectory since September 30, 2024. Candlestick patterns suggest that "Market Makers" are gradually entering the market, purchasing at lower price levels. The weekly low is established at 1.26650, with a demand zone identified between 1.26650 and 1.2815. 2. On the daily chart, GBP/USD appears to be approaching a support level at 1.28168, coinciding with an untapped supply zone in that vicinity. 3. Since September 30, 2024, the market has experienced a decline of approximately 600 points, characterized by minimal daily pullbacks. This downward movement occurred following the formation of a new weekly high. I project that prices will descend to the 1.28168 level, where support may be found on the daily chart. This area could serve as a critical juncture for a potential pullback. Should the 1.28168 level hold, targets may extend to 1.132, representing the last significant low breached prior to the bearish trend that commenced on September 30, 2024, and continues to the present date of November 2, 2024. Volume analysis indicates that market makers are incrementally entering long positions, although they are not yet prepared to fully influence the market direction. The overarching weekly outlook remains bearish, yet a corrective pullback appears necessary. OANDA:GBPUSD TVC:DXY ThePipAssassin
by ThePipAssassin
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 10/02/2024Good afternoon, Today, my focus will be on identifying long entries for a long position, as we appear to have reached a selling climax. On the 15-minute time frame, a robust demand zone is evident between 1.0300 and 1.0400. The market has made a significant move towards 1.0300, leaving indications of early buying activity from "Market Makers." A notable reversal occurred on October 1st, followed by the formation of a bullish wedge (which is typically a bearish pattern) that pushed the market below the previous low. Currently, we are beginning to form a triangle on the 15-minute chart, which serves as a critical signal for a potential market reversal, particularly since it has not managed to fill the liquidity above it. This downward movement seems designed to eliminate the remaining sellers and early buyers. Additionally, my strategy, "High Clear," has materialized, suggesting that a liquidity sweep of the recent low was anticipated. I am now monitoring the fourth leg of the triangle as it approaches the lower congestion line, preparing for a potential breakout with the fifth leg. It is important to note that if a sixth leg forms, it would indicate a continuation of the market trend. I suspect that the market is attempting to prompt traders to shift to short positions, setting the stage for one final significant rally towards 1.1300. I anticipate that the market could reach this level in the coming weeks, unless we observe the formation of a six-legged triangle. The Pip Assassin FX:EURUSD TVC:DXY XETR:DAX
Long
by ThePipAssassin
2
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 9/24/2024Good evening, Today served as a solid confirmation that we might be experiencing a buying climax. Several indicators have pointed to this: 1. We are observing a bearish pin-bar that is accompanied by significant trading volume. 2. Additionally, there is an evening star pattern present, featuring a prominent long-legged doji at its center. 3. Two weeks ago, we broke through a low, and now retail sentiment is beginning to shift towards long positions. It's common for retail traders, myself included in the past, to chase the highs and make purchases at elevated levels. I believe the first key level market makers are going to push for is 1.088. Best, The Pip Assassin! TVC:DXY XETR:DAX
Short
by ThePipAssassin
3
BLS INTL SERVICES - Ready for a short term Up MoveThe stock had undergone a big correction even before the recent small cap index correction. The stock fell almost 28% from 475 to 340. It was pushed below the 200 DMA, from where it has been recovering. Even during the recent correction in the small cap index, the stock was in fact showing lot of strength and the relative strength compared to the small cap index is positive now. It is also making higher highs in the daily frame while it is still continuing to make the higher highs and higher lows in the weekly time frame as well. Now, it has also crossed above the short-term moving averages and the previous daily pivot. So, the stock looks likely to test 475 levels. So, I am looking at 15% returns in the short term from the stock. Of course, one has to always keep in mind the overall market weakness.
NSE:BLSLong
by karthikmarar
2
BOMBAY DYEING - Ready to Move to the Next OrbitThe stock after facing price rejection in the range of 224 to 241 was pushed down to the 50 DMA. It moved almost sideways in the last three months. Recently we saw some interest coming back into the stock with the relative strength and the money flow turning positive and the volume was also increasing. The stock remained very strong during the recent weakness we saw in the overall market. Now finally it has crossed above the price rejection zone with good volume support. The delivery volumes saw substantial increase recently. All other parameters like the buying pressure, volume adjusted momentums, absolute momentum everything seem to be favouring further up move. Looks like the stock is ready to move to the top into the next orbit.
NSE:BOMDYEINGLong
by karthikmarar
TDPOWER SYSTEMS - Likely to resume the Up Trend?The stock was in an uptrend and met with some price rejection in the range of 436 to 451, then it was pushed down to below 50 DMA. Then we saw some strength coming back below the 50 DMA and then today we saw an “Effort to move up” bar. Now the price is at the supply line and once the supply line is broken then we can see the stock testing the previous rejection zone and with some momentum it could take out the Price Rejection Zone and move up. Now the buying pressure and the money flow are positive while the relative strength is on the verge of turning positive. There is some good volume support as well. We also could see some committed buying coming in terms of delivery volumes. So, looks like the momentum is building up and this should see a stock being pushed up to test the rejection zone and further up. In other words the stock look likely to resume the Up Trend.
NSE:TDPOWERSYSLong
by karthikmarar
LAURAS LABS - A Stock to WatchThe stock has been moving up slowly and on the weekly, it has been making higher highs and higher lows. Also, it has been repeatedly bouncing from the 200 DMA. Currently after making a higher high on the weekly, it was pushed down back to the 200 DMA from where it has been bouncing. Now it has moved past the short-term moving averages as well. In the last few sessions, we saw good buying up bars. However, the key parameters like relative strength, money flow and the volume driven momentum are still in the negative territory tending to move to the positive side. Ideally this stock should make another higher high surpassing the earlier higher high which was around 520 levels. Ideally one should wait till it crosses 477 levels and all key parameters turn positive. This will also help to confirm that there is follow up bullishness. Hence this is a stock to watch.
NSE:LAURUSLABSLong
by karthikmarar
MAZAGON DOCKS - ON A RECOVERY PATH ?The stock after a buying climax bar in the month of July was overwhelmed with the supply of the BC bar and was pushed down to below the 50 DMA levels. Then it started accumulating around the 50 DMA and now it's finally getting pushed above the short-term moving averages. And all the key parameters like the relative strength, absolute strength, the money flow, buying pressure are all nicely stacked up favouring further up move. So, this could move up again. Another 1000 points testing 5400 levels. However, it is better to watch the next couple of bars to see if there is follow-up support coming.
NSE:MAZDOCKLong
by karthikmarar
Cable (GBPUSD) heading for 1.3800, FED rate Hike Priced In I believe the FED rate cuts are largely being priced in. We are now moving to that liquidity event level that was as a result of Russian sanctions and some liquidity being sucked out of the system. I expect Cable to move up to the 1.3800 level first and then possibly 1.4000. 1. You can see the Volume come in after the FED cut. That's some of the earlier longs liquidating on the higher volume trading those events. 2. You can see from the volume that the trade started from October last year and picked additional pace in April this year. So if you are trading the upside now you missed out on most of the earlier move. 3. The key now is to wait for sellers or develop a bullish bias in intraday traders if you are a day trader. You can follow more of my thoughts as a 15 year trading veteran in London
Long
by GreedyTrader
Tricky Spot Thursday's candle closed above the prior day's high, reaching the weekly SIBI, overnight in the Asian session the price rallied, consolidated in London, and Reversed In the NY Session 4hr market structure is still bullish but at the top of the range creating a bearish reversal with high volume that created a bearish SIBI retesting value area high or the 4hr trading range/4hr Fixed Volume profile the 4hr bullish bars that traded away from POC showed an increase in volume but the bearish volume was higher m15 has two potential areas from long at 20,271.00 or at 20,140.00 but I'm being mindful of the 20,406.00 to 20,362.00 level that can act as resistance causing longs to get squeezed out of their positions I will review what happens overnight Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by martiedirect
Eye For Longs wiith Caution Tuesday's candle closed above prior day high, as well as reaching weekly high 4hr market structure is still bullish but after rally price failed to close above 4hr swing high 4hr Fixed Volume profile shows the POC is at the highs on the 4hr price attempted to move away from POC in a bullish fashion but could be a weak move due to the failed closure I want to see what develops over night to get a clearer picture but i do see a potential area for longs at 20,097.00 or 20,060.00 Since NQ is typically correlated with ES I will monitor both for direction confirmation and divergences and convergences
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by martiedirect
RADICO - In to the next orbit ?The stock has been moving almost sideways with a upward bias for the last eight months. However, recently you can see that in the weekly it has been making a higher, high and higher lows. Now the stock has successfully moved out of this sideways range and also it has crossed above the supply line in the top. The move was with very high volumes. You can see a positive money flow in the weekly. On the daily you can see that the relative strength, absolute strength and the money flow has been positive. So, it looks like that stock is now ready to go into the next orbit. However, the ultra-high volume calls for some caution. So, one has to wait till the stock crosses above 1973 which is a high of the “BC” like bar of the last day. Relative strength turning positive on the weekly will add to the conviction.
NSE:RADICOLong
by karthikmarar
1
UPL - Finally out of the woods?The stock had been in a downtrend for more than 15 months, losing almost 45% in value. In the last three months it was seeing some recovery and finally now it seems to be out of the woods. We can see the stock is making a higher high and higher low on the weekly and we can see a change of character in the weekly as well. Now finally the stock is decisively going above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. The relative strength and the money flow is also positive. Even the buying pressure and the absolute strength are also positive. It is showing a positive momentum as well. We can now confirm that the stock is finally ready to move up further and eventually the stock should be testing 800 levels.
NSE:UPLLong
by karthikmarar
1
SYNGENE - Gearing up for higher MoveThe stock after nearly 10 months of consolidation had come out of the consolidation zone and now it is attempting to take out the previous supply zone as well. As we can see in the weekly chart, the relative strength and the money flow index are positive. In the daily chart as well, you can find the relative strength, the buying pressure are all positive. However, the money flow has not picked up. Given these conditions, once the money flow also picks up, the stock is likely to go up higher after breaking out of the price rejection zone or the supply zone. A positive close above 858 level, will add to the conviction.
NSE:SYNGENELong
by karthikmarar
KNR CONSTRUCTION - Moving to next orbit ?The stock, after a long consolidation of more than 2 years, made an impressive up move in late May, early June period. Then it met with supply around 344-410 levels. Then again it consolidated for almost 2 months taking support in the previous Major PRZ. Now it is trying to move out of this supply zone. All the other parameters like relative strength, money flow, buying pressure, the volumes, all look positive and likely to aid further up move. So, looks like the stock is going to go into the next higher orbit.
NSE:KNRCONLong
by karthikmarar
HBL POWER - High Probability for further up MoveThe stock faced price rejection around 612 on its upward journey and it was pushed down to the 200 DMA levels. And it moved almost sideways for 6 months. Multiple attempts to take out the rejection zone failed and recently it did succeed in moving out of the rejection zone. But it again went back to test the rejection zone. Now again it is moved up above the rejection zone and also the supply shadow of the BC bar of the 15th of July. As you can see the money flow is positive and the relative strength is also positive now. Th e volume has substantially increased and also the delivery volumes have increased in the recent past. All this does indicate that this current breakout of the rejection zone will sustain and it is highly probable that the stock will move up further.
NSE:HBLPOWERLong
by karthikmarar
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Volume and Price DynamicsVolume Spread Analysis (VSA): Understanding Market Intentions through Volume and Price Dynamics. █ Simple Explanation: Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a trading technique that identifies key market patterns and trends by analyzing the relationship between volume and price spread, revealing traders' actions and market behavior. Essentials in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Laws. VSA Indicator. Signs of Strength. Signs of Weakness. Note that while the provided examples are excellent for illustrating the points, they are unlikely to play out perfectly in most scenarios. █ Laws Three basic laws forming the foundation of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The Law of Supply and Demand This law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply. The Law of Cause and Effect This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend. The Law of Effort vs Result This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly. █ VSA Indicator This indicator simplifies the identification of Volume and Spread Levels. It provides options to display volume and/or spread bars. An enhanced version of the indicator auto-scales both volume and spread for optimal chart presentation, reloading every time the chart is moved. Levels: Representing the levels of both volume and spread using the terminalogy of low, normal, high, and ultra. Indicator Version 1: Display volume and/or spread bars. When both are displayed, the spread bars are shown in a fixed quantity. Indicator Version 2: Display both volume and spread bars, with the spread bars scaled to the volume bars. █ Signs of Strength Indicates that the market is likely to experience bullish behavior. Down Thrust: Indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, suggesting a potential upward reversal. Selling Climax: Signifies a reversal point as panic selling exhausts and smart money starts accumulating. Bear Effort No Result: A large downward price move without strong selling effort (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the down move may be unsustained. No Effort Bear Result: Strong selling effort (volume) fails to push prices down indicating an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of downward momentum. Inverse Down Thrust: Shows buyers overpowering sellers, likely leading to a bullish market reversal. Failed Selling Climax: Failed selling effort suggests strong buying support and a possible upward trend reversal. Bull Outside Reversal: Indicates strong buying reversing a downtrend, confirmed by higher close. End of Falling Market: Signifies strong buying absorbs panic selling at new lows, likely leading to stabilized price or reversal. Pseudo Down Thrust: Suggests weakening of the downward momentum with a potential upward continuation if broken above high. No Supply: Indicates a lack of selling interest at lower prices, potentially setting up for a price rise. █ Signs of Weakness Indicates that the market is likely to experience bearish behavior. Up Thrust: Indicates sellers overpowering buyers during a price rise, suggesting a potential downward reversal. Buying Climax: Represents peak buying, typically at price highs, with potential for reversal as sellers take control. No Effort Bull Result: A large upward price move without strong buying pressure (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the up move may be unsustained. Bull Effort No Result: Strong buying (volume) fails to drive prices higher indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of upward momentum. Inverse Up Thrust: Increased selling pressure during an uptrend suggests a possible shift to a downtrend. Failed Buying Climax: High buying volume fails to sustain higher prices, indicating a potential reversal to downtrend. Bear Outside Reversal: Strong selling pressure reversing an uptrend, signaling a potential downtrend. End of Rising Market: Indicates buying saturation at market peaks, suggesting a possible reversal as demand exhausts. Pseudo Down Thrust: Indicates weakening upward momentum with potential for downward continuation if broken below low. No Demand: Indicates reduced buying interest at higher prices, possibly leading to a price decline.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TanHef
9
AFFLE - A stock to watchThe stock has been moving almost sideways for more than two years. Early this year it attempted to take out the old price rejection zone of two years at 1336 level, it failed and it was pushed down again below the 200 DMA. From there it started recovering and in the month of May the stock did make an attempt to take out this price rejection zone. It failed and again was pushed down below the 200 DMA. Now again it is making an attempt and it is crossed the rejection zone with a “Buying Climax” like Bar with a with widespread up bar on very high volume. Now the level 1390 is very significant now because once the price goes above this level it would cross the previous resistances from 2022 and also it would go above the supply shadow of the “BC” like bar which happened today. A bullish close above 1390 will take the stock higher. All other parameters like Relative strength, Money Flow, Buying Pressure and Momentum seem to support. The up move could struggle till 1510 level above which the ease of movement would be much better.
NSE:AFFLE
by karthikmarar
1