Volumeprofileanalysis
BTC Bulls on Edge: Key Levels to Watch in This Critical RetestIf you remember my last analysis from August titled "Bulls in the Hot Seat," this follow-up will make a lot of sense. The price movement aligned closely with my projections, and all predicted targets were achieved. This new analysis builds on the same value area, with adjusted VAL (Value Area Low) and VAH (Value Area High) to reflect current price dynamics.
Recently, BTC broke out of the value area, nearly reaching a new all-time high. However, buyers were absorbed and ultimately rejected, pushing the price back into the value area—setting up a potential failed auction scenario.
Now that we're back in value, a retest of the VAL at 65,600 is highly likely unless the bulls manage a solid bounce from the POC (Point of Control) at 67,000, holding above this level to regain traction toward the VAH. 65769 as shown on the chart currently presents the most favorable entry point, with a reasonable stop loss below that protects against a major LVN below my suggested entry. This is where i will place my bids personally.
If the crypto bull run remains intact, we should see a bounce or consolidation within this area. However, if BTC breaks below the VAL at 65,600 and accumulates volume beneath it, we could see a significant decline, with the next rotation likely targeting the 60,000 to 63,000 range.
XAUUSD: Watch for Buyer at major support.The Large range of 11 Day trading has forming up. Just pay attention at "11 Day VAL" zone. Price may move up and down between "11 Day HVN" and "11 Day VAL". Which is a battle zone between Buyer and Seller.
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Green direction: If the price couldn't break "11 Day VAL". We might expect that buyer will step in and push the price higher back to "Last week POC" and "YPOC" level.
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Red Direction: If the price break down deeper to major support. We will expect that Buyer won't have enough power to push the price over "11 Day HVN".
Technical Analysis on Visa (V)Visa's stock ( V ) shows a clear long-term uptrend.
Following a decline in 2022, it regained its 2021 highs in early 2024, breaking through resistance and continuing its upward trend.
The stock reached new highs around the $290 area, then retraced, forming a bullish flag pattern, down to a support area near $250.
Currently, it is testing the highs again in the $290 area, reached via a gap up after positive earnings and revenue announcements. If it confirms a breakout above resistance, with a potential retest, the stock could continue its bullish trend.
Technical Analysis on Cloudflare (NET)Cloudflare ( NET ) experienced exponential growth between 2020 and 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2022. This decline halted around a support level at approximately $40, which has been tested multiple times as a key level.
Recently, the stock broke through a significant volume area, also surpassing a key resistance level that had been tested multiple times in the past.
Bullish Scenario
Currently, it appears to be in a retest phase. If this level can hold as new support, the stock could continue its upward trend, with an initial target around $130.
Bearish Scenario
If the retest fails, as it did in April 2024, the stock may retrace toward the POC area, located around $60. A move below this key level would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the critical $40 support, previously tested multiple times, where it could attempt to stabilize once again.
Technical Analysis of Coca-Cola (KO)The stock ( KO ) is currently in a retracement phase from its all-time highs reached in September 2024, having momentarily paused at previous relative highs.
Given Coca-Cola’s long-term uptrend, we can identify several key support levels where the retracement may halt and resume its upward trajectory:
SUP 1 : The first support area could be the current level, marked as SUP 1.
SUP 2 : The second area is around $64, labeled as SUP 2. Analyzing the Volume Profile, we notice significantly higher volume levels here.
POC : Just below SUP 2, we find the POC (Point of Control) area in the Volume Profile, located around $60.
SUP 3 : Another support level, marked as SUP 3, is around $57.
In the worst-case scenario, a drop down to SUP 3 would represent a drawdown of around 20%. Historically, Coca-Cola has seen similar drawdowns of 15%-20% and even as much as 40% at times.
The final potential support area is between $54-$53, corresponding to a secondary peak in the Volume Profile and an area where the stock has previously found resistance. This scenario would reflect a drawdown of about 30%
An additional note: the SUP 2 and POC levels align precisely with the 0.382 and 0.618 levels of the Fibonacci Retracement indicator.
BTCUSDT Strong support at $65,000BINANCE:BTCUSDT on the daily timeframe is forming a descending broadening wedge, with the price currently testing the upper resistance trendline. This pattern often suggests a potential bullish breakout if the price successfully surpasses the resistance. The volume profile shows significant trading activity between $65,000 and $67,000, indicating this range as a key support zone. Additionally, lower trading volume above the current price may suggest lighter resistance if the price moves higher.
The $65,000 level is acting as strong support, while $69,000 serves as potential resistance. A breakout above the wedge could signal the start of a bullish rally.
Regards
hexa
BAL/USDT Trading ScenarioAfter reaching a local maximum in 2024 at a price of $6.192, the asset has since declined, hitting a low of $1.544, a drop of over 94%. Currently, the asset is trading near this minimum price. The volume profile in this price range indicates strong interest from market participants for accumulation.
Given this interest and the current market dynamics, there is a likelihood of continued short-term decline, which could trigger additional liquidation of weak positions and create more favorable conditions for further accumulation. This may lay the groundwork for recovery and potential growth of the asset as the market stabilizes and investor sentiment shifts.
XAUUSD: Go higher or back to BuyerPrice has broken up from 20++ Day range. SO bullish situation has set from that behavior. So If the price is still bullish, we don't want to see the price come back lower than YPOC. If it does come lower then that level. The bullish situation in small time frame will cancle.
Green>>> If price making a small boundary range around ATH. it interpreted the price will try to making a higher move.
Red>>> If price start moving lower and hold below gray zone and trend line. It might pull back down deeper to find a buyer around YPOC zone.
CRV/USDT Trading Scenario UpdateThe asset is currently trading at $0.2568, which is significantly lower than its local high of $6.7862—a decline of over 97%. However, despite this drop, the Curve Finance platform continues to draw attention from market participants, maintaining a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $1.8 billion, indicating a high level of trust in the ecosystem.
Volume profile analysis shows considerable interest in the asset within the current price range, which could signal the formation of a strong support level. Increased trading volumes further suggest heightened buyer activity, creating potential for a price recovery.
XAUUSD: We are in medium time frame key inflection point area.The upper boundry of 20++ Day Range is a key inflection point area. So we must pay attention to this zone area to see the behavior of price movement.
----Green----
If the price still bullish. We must see price holding above YPOC and trying to break ATH.
----Red----
If YPOC coundn't hold the price and if it's broken a next trend line and hold below it. A deeper pull back may set the first target at 20++ Day HVN.
Technical Analysis of Digital Turbine (APPS)Looking at the stock's (APPS) historical performance, we can see a long lateral phase that lasted about 10 years. It broke out of this sideways trend with a strong bullish rally, reaching a peak of around $100. After that, the uptrend ended, and a downward phase began, following the formation of a Double Top technical pattern.
The downtrend appears to have stopped near a support zone.
When zooming in with a lower timeframe, we notice that the downtrend halted around this area. The stock broke a descending trendline and formed a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern. The neckline was broken with strength, accompanied by a substantial increase in volume, coinciding with the release of earnings and revenue reports.
After the strong rally, the stock retraced and is now sitting at the Point of Control (POC) of a key volume area, which considers the entire history of the stock.
Bullish Scenario
The stock seems to be in a rebound phase after touching the POC. A continued upward movement could target the $7 area, which aligns with another significant volume area.
Bearish Scenario
If the POC area fails to hold, one could consider entering at the $1 level, which corresponds to a support area.
Note of Caution: The stock has experienced a massive loss over three years, dropping from $100 to around $1.50. Therefore, it’s crucial to proceed with caution when evaluating this stock.
XAUUSD: In Range trading strategiesGreen: If price couldn't break down to NPOC and making higher low it determining that Buyer might try to push the price above 23 day HVN
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Red: If price has broken through NPOC. Watch for the rejection which will make a move back up to 23 day HVN
XAUUSD: Will the price going to reach ATH?Red scenario: If price going streaght up and break through the red zone and come back underneath it. Wacth out the price will break trend line and come back down to yesterday VPOC.
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Green Scenario: If price hasn't break the red zone yet but pulled back and hold at the trend line or stay above 23 Day HVN range. Bullish scenario may contious pushing price to rise up to ATH.
payo are you gonna correct?after the great boom payo brought us some great profits. tbh i havent closed anything and i am still bullish on payo.
payo accumulation and bingbongdingdong has been formed for 3 years as of this moment we are attempting to turn previous critical resistance into support.
2 scenerios according to wykoff theory.
1. correction then big money needs to defend its positions and at a reasonable price.
fundementally that could be previous value area high (vah upper white line) because we need to create a new value range it would only make sense to turn vah to the new point of control (poc) or the new value area low (where price is traded the most e.g mid range val bottom area)
another point to consider for the correction is the gap, so previous point of control to turn value area low or a sweep to that level would provide 4 things
first it will close the gap and get rid of that imbalance.
2nd it will shake off weak hands and get rid of breakout traders when it
grabs the single print
3rd it will provide a decent price for big money to enter at.. liquidity liquidity liqduidity.
4th provide the oprotunity for hedge shorting and basically thats more fuel to the upside when said shorts close. (so basically proffesionals get paid to pump the market for free)
2. leave everyone behind everyone whos waiting for the correction. that scenerio is less likely to anticipate, depends more on the company preformance and has less upside for big money that wants to accumulate low and provide big gains.
i believe the first scenerio is more likely that the other one.
the teal circles on the green lines are where i am looking to see reactions for swing fail patterns and adding to my positions
luckily i already have an open position on payo for quite a while now, so im chilling.
im still bullishlast daily deviated from my trendline. to me that could be a swing fail and a shakeout to shake weak hands.
reasons to consider: there is CPI data today and on 10/10 theres the tesla robot event a big fail could prove to be a priced in scenerio and the start of the nuke today with the following nuke tomorrow.
for me i am a big believer of tesla so im bullish for me i may have another buy oprotunity on the vola vola today.
as for the pattern in question we have a 48% on the cup depth 32% on the handle depth 44% on the parallel channel that is still part of the handle.. make of it what you will.
i dont believe tesla will break out before the 10/10 but will swingfail the down level even (especially) on bullish cpi data (if anyone knows how hedge funds like to operate).
there are bad lows at our current level and at 226 (which is also previous resistance)
a sweep would be an amazing bullish retest that may or may not fail but the oprotunity is there and it all depends on how aggressive you'd like to trade or invest.
Trendlines are current value ranges
The upper teal drawings are potential double top that has formed and if we reject a potential double bottom (rsi will print an rsi div on 30 mins and may potentially swing up to the upper part of the channel causing an overbought on 4hours and daily)
Vwap will confluence with the 100 daily ema that could potentially be a good entry but there's also the potential of the 150 and 200 bullish retest even though in my opinion that would ruin the cup and handle entirely although the liquidity idea would stay the same i'd be sad to see the pattern go.
if we dont swing fail the bullish retest i will look to swing fail the lower trendline for another liquidity pool grab which is also the yearly value area poc.
if all fails and we go bearish on tesla i will trade the consolation prize from valow to vahigh (a lower high and on the higher timeframe and a full rotation play)
the bullish idea is if tesla preforms and the vah turns into the new poc/val and said new value range would be between current to 400-500
i hope i made enough sense and that my ideas are interesting for you. good luck to everyone.
Gold Wyckoff AnalysisGold's been on a stellar run with a strong campaign initiated at the start of September which broke out of a beautiful Wyckoff accumulation on the much higher time frame BUEC. Overall still very bullish for gold over the next 18-24months.
In the current price action we've had a strong push up from $2,590 where we have found a new trading range. We had a potential spring event that failed to breakout which shows some weakness in the market right now suggesting more of a distribution/selling/profit taking event.
Since this spring the range has tightened and tested both extremes of the range at the purple circles indicating no real support either way to rally further or sell of. The volatility is suggesting selling activity however we will not know until the range is completed. This smaller range can also be a test of the potential spring event
Expecting the market to show us an answer over the coming days as price continues to contract in a bearish fashion however this can still always mean 2 things, that
1. sellers are exhausted or nearing the end of taking profits and demand is strong
or
2. demand is weakening
Now looking for another potential spring event that dips below the prior one, if this shows any weakness and fails its going to be a sharp quick drop to the next high volume node at $2,580.
Trading opportunities to go long will be in the green circle in which will be a faster reversal given the location as this would also represent another higher time frame test of the consolidation breakout that happened at the start of September
or
At a successful spring event test back in the range.
or
The failure of a spring event not able to reclaim the range and going short to the next high volume node in the green circle.
Technical Analysis of Nike (NKE)Looking at Nike ’s stock on a monthly timeframe, we can clearly observe that it has been in a downtrend since November 2021, following the formation of a Double Top pattern, confirmed by the development of a Shooting Star candlestick.
The downward movement has currently paused at a support level (SUP) in the $70 area, where the stock has shown a reaction.
At the moment, the stock is trading near a crucial volume level, the Point of Control (POC). Above this level, up to $110, there are significant volumes that could make upward movement more challenging.
Bullish Scenario
For a bullish scenario, the stock needs to break above the current POC level and the descending trendline. The first target could be the resistance (RES 1) around $110.
If it successfully breaks through this resistance with strength, the second target could be the $130 area (RES 2), which has acted as both support and resistance in the past.
Bearish Scenario
However, if the stock lacks the momentum to break through the POC and the entire high-volume area up to RES 1, the downtrend could continue, with the next support (SUP1) located around the $50 area.
This analysis outlines both bullish and bearish scenarios for Nike's stock, offering a clear view of the key price levels to watch.
XAUUSD: Neutral DayStill in Balancing Range trading strategy.
Green == If price can hold above YPOC and 9 Day HVN. It may potentailly move up to the upper boundary of 9 Day range.
Red == If price break and hold below YPOC and 9 Day HVN. It may potentailly move down to trend line at the red zone or lower than that.
We are we doiiiingggg lol ?Daily: Tuesday trading was bearish pushing into the weekly low. Wednesday's price failed to take out Tuesday's daily low creating indecision. For me, that's giving the idea that Thursday can go either way
4hr: RTH shows that the NY session had mostly bullish volume but still a bearish presence at the highs. Longs will be favored if we can get above 20.266.00
M15: After the NY session on Tuesday, the price went into accumulation and attempted the expansion today leaving behind a m15 imbalance that I will be curious how the price reacts to if retested
If it holds we can see long stepping back in, but if it fails price might push back to the lows
I want to see how the overnight session trades to see if it gives any sentiment of price moving higher or lower in the Asian and London sessions.
XAUUSD: Reversing to 5 day HVN?GREEN============================================================
- If the price can break and hold above yesterday POC. It's potentially can move back up to 5 Day HVN.
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- If the price break up and come back down and hold below yesterday POC. It might potentially moving in the price range moving expected.
Could We Be Going Long???Daily: Monday's candle swept below Friday's low and closed bullish. Price is still extended at a higher high in the daily bullish trading range. Price can potentially move higher into the previous day's high.
4hr: The 4hr trading range is still bullish in the corrective phase back into the 4hr volume profile POC, but we can see a potential reversal for longs playing out if the price closes above 20286.50 on the 4hr
m15: If that happens I will look for a pullback sweeping sell side for long entry
Again, we let the price develop overnight before the NY session and updated in the morning to see if anything had changed.
Since NQ and ES move in the same direction I will be monitoring for divergence or convergence between the two