TRLY Undervalued / Fed Fix Long SetupThe 2H chart on TLRY shows a volume profile showing the highest concentration of shares
traded at $2.65 or about 15% above the current price. Short sellers dominated there. Price has
descended down onto the support/demand zone. It is near to tow standard deviations below
the mean VWAP and so very undervalued.
Federal legislation intended to remedy the cannabis industry's issues with banking, commercial
loans and other financial liquidity has begun. This is huge for this subsector and could cause a
breakout from the deep undervalued territory.
I will take a long setup here for a decent amount of shares and hedge with a single
put option for risk management/insurance. ACB is similarly positioned.
Volumeprofileanalysis
ETH is STILL in a PHASE B.If I Consider 12.05.21 being a Climax (BC) and 19.05.21 an AR, Then my FORK is set in the Following way :
Creek > 4379$
ICE > 1400$
MID Range > 2480$
ST > 3990$ / 1700$
UA > 4877$
1. WHY THE COLLAPSE as of 18.06.22 is NOT A SPRING ?
Even if PA has reintegrated the FORK, to being considered a SPRING (PHASE C), it should (PA) at least kick the ST @ 3900$ before sitting on any LPS (Last Point of Support) and exit by the TOP.
IT DID NOT !!!!
Furthermore, and obviously, the Volume does not show any potential sign with full lack of Harmony (Weiss) to confirm being a SPRING.
Finally, after made an Elastic Jump, it only arrived to reach the VAH then slipped back seeking some potential Liquidity before to reintegrate it again...
Mathematical deduction >
If not a SPRING, what could it being a part Major SOW ?
If not a PHASE C, then still in the Observation Phase (B) !
2. "THE b Shape" and THE LVN.
Even if my Fork, defined in the introduction, is not really accurate, let's express the Volume Profile of the ACTUAL RANGE since January 21 !
Actual VAH > 2075$
Actual VAL > 1031$
Actual POC > 1564$
As you can deduct by yourself, PA has reintegrated the FORK defined by the Fixed Range Volume Profile. There is NO JAC; No bounce, even for testing above the MID range of my initial FORK...
If reintegrated, then ST (1700$) should be the KEY, and POC might be visited again.
WHY it might be visited ? I have a big conviction that the LVN below this POC (1564$/1270$) should be closed ! I think it should be obvious for everyone who understand what the analyze of the volume profile really shows !
THE story of "b Shape".
It is not really over ! I agree ! Yes of course the PA should visit above the MID Range (2480+).
It should... When ? That is the question... Maybe tomorrow, maybe in one week, maybe in one month, a quarter...
BUT !!!!!
OPEN INTEREST providing us a very clear information regarding THE potential interest of MMakers... You don't agree with me ?
SO !
If there was not any UTAD made, we don't have the confirmation of the Breaking ICE. If we didn't see the SPRING, we should see it soon in order to get access above the MID Range ! And IF the SPRING (Phase C) might happen, where do you think, it will take the LQ if not below 1k figure ?
I just fixed 1k to not really afraid you !
Just Think about....
Don Pablo
UVXY Volatility Index ETFUVXY as shown in the 15 minute chart is slightly above the basis line on the Bollinger Bands
as shown also on the BB indicator or Luxalgo. Price is slightly below the mean VWAP of the
anchored VWAP situated in the fair value area as also confirmed by the volume profile and
its POC line confluent with the VWAP bands. Given impending federal data reports and news,
I expect volatility will rise. UVXY could have positive price action in the range of 10% in
tomorrow's trading day which can be day traded or scalped.
F Surprised on Earnings Ready for Rising PriceFORD ( F) significantly surprised on earnings no matter that a recession may be underway and
no matter its balance sheet is saddled with debt which is increasingly more expensive to
services. Pre-orders for the Lightning F -150 are strong. On the 2H chart, price has yet to
react to the earnings surprise. Volume has picked up but nothing dramatic. The zero-lag
MACD lines have crossed under the histogram and are now crossing over the zero line.
Price in a sign of strength rose out of its Fibonacci band channel and is just below the
anchored mean VWAP while at the uppermost portion of the high volume area of the volume
profile. I see this as a good place to take a long position targettting $ 12.80 to 13.00
with a stop loss at $ 11.80 below the POC line of the volume profile.
US100 VPOCs of interestWe are nearing the top of the range, however there is a daily VPOC at 12920 still left untagged, another below at 12520. At the very least to reach balance we tag 12920.
Above we have a VPOC in the 13500-13550 area, further away but a long term target for aa bullish breakout, most like a fakeout if it stops there as above 13900 would be the real target.
I think we need to tag these VPOCs below as many have been left all the way down to 11800 and the ones above are many months older from the initial leg down.
EURGBP SHORT @ ResistanceEURGBP on the 30-minute chart has ascended to the supply / resistance zone marked by
the LuxAlgo indicator. It is far extended in the overvalued zone two standard deviations
above the mean anchored VWAP. There is confluence in the volume profile which shows
price far above the POC line and also above the top margin of the high-volume area of the
profile. Finally, the stochastic RSI is showing bearish divergence. Accordingly, I will take
a short position and also check the EURUSD pair and GBPUSD pair for analysis.
BAC Bank of America SHORTBAC is shown here on the 15 minute chart. Fundamentally, it is under pressure like
many other banks including First Republic.
On the chart, price is in a downtrend having bounced from VWAP (redline)
in confluence with the blue line of the top of the high volume area of the
volume profile. Price is underneath the blackline which is the 210 HMA.
Only shorts should be taken underneath that line.
The target is the thin red line below which is the bottom of the low volume area.
Accordingly, the thin red line is the target while the thin blue line or the
VWAP (thick red) are the stop loss levels. This is a very safe trade with
an acceptable R:R.
My put option @ $ 28.50 for expiration 5/12 gained 68% overnight.
I will ride this down and then look for the reversal trade.