Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas!
Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets.
S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs!
The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between.
If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you.
How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup!
Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade:
1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend.
- Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume.
2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue).
- Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day.
- Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP.
- Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event.
3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1.
- Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free.
- Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle.
4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run.
- Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading.
Always Have a Plan B!
Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup.
In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist:
1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range.
- Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred.
2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP.
- Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile.
3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1.
- Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position.
4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time.
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Conclusion and Recommendation
By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses.
Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it.
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Volumeprofileanalysis
Technical Analysis on PayPal (PYPL)PayPal ( PYPL ) has experienced a medium-term negative trend, losing over 80% from its 2021 highs. This downtrend developed after the formation of a Double Top chart pattern.
Currently, the price is near a key resistance area at $70 (marked as Res 1), highlighted in purple. In the past, this zone acted as support (green arrows), and more recently, it has been serving as resistance, with the price being rejected twice (red arrows).
In the short term, the stock is showing a slightly positive formation, with an ascending triangle pattern taking shape. Additionally, the price is positioned above the main Point of Control (POC), considering the entire volume history.
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish scenario, the stock needs to break above the $70 resistance area (Res 1). If successful, it could progressively reach $100 and subsequently $120. Above this level, there are inefficient zones with low volume where the stock could potentially extend further.
Bearish Scenario:
If the stock fails to break the first resistance and falls below the POC area, it could resume its downtrend, targeting the first support area around $40 in stages.
Sweet spot to sell USD/JPYHopes of feds cutting rate is getting more credit across the market and we also have Powell about to speak in the morning.
If he further confirms what the rate cuts anticipation, then it's fair to expect a continuation of the USD/JPY dump . At the least we can take some profit at value area low and leave a runner for an expected lower low
ZEN/USDT Trading ScenarioZEN has been trading within a sideways range for over 630 days, hovering near price lows around the $5.52 mark. During this period, significant volume accumulation has been observed, as confirmed by the volume profile. Additionally, a notable increase in trading volume has occurred during the formation of this range. As the accumulation phase nears its end, with the onset of altcoin season, there is potential for an upward breakout and subsequent strong price growth. In the current price zone, a buying opportunity may be considered, holding the main position until the 0.5 Fibonacci level or higher, with partial profit-taking along the way.
BULLS IN THE HOT SEATWe need to close some higher timeframe candles above 61,252 to get BTC back in heavy volume range we've been trading in since February.
If we dont re-claim this value area, its going to get ugly. If the re-claim is successful then we'll shoot for 67k POC, if successful, then we shoot again for the 71k highs , then MAYBE a new ATH.
My personal opinion
If you want to go long, dont get smoked trying to get in early before everyone so you brag about it :) ,wait for btc to be accepted back in the value area, atleast above 61252. This is the only time i can suggest bull have some control, else the short term downtrend will continue until we get another bullish catalyst.
If feds finally cut rates as we the whole market has been drooling for, this is i believe would be the best catalyst for the bulls and we may likely see an ATH if that happens. However short lived it may be.
UNTIL THEN ..I'll be neutral and will only short when the opportunity arises after a rejection.
ATOM/USDT Trading ScenarioAs a result of "Red Monday," the price chart of ATOM hit new lows since 2022. Notice how the price stabilizes in the range of $6.551 to $14.216. This range indicates heightened interest from market participants, confirmed by the volume profile. Amid widespread panic, the asset's price moved outside this range. From a long-term investment perspective, this situation appears promising. The current price may represent an opportune entry point into the asset.
PEPE/USDT Trading ScenarioAfter hitting a new local high of $0.00001726, the price of PEPE entered a prolonged correction, dropping to $0.00000768, a decline of over 55%. In this range, the price found significant interest from market participants and nearly reached the high-volume level (Point of Control, POC), from which it bounced back and attempted to recover. Currently, the asset is in a consolidation phase, and according to the volume profile, interest in this price zone remains. The price might drop further, which could pressure new participants and provide an opportunity to buy at lower prices, closing out losing positions. A downward move and testing of the 200-day moving average appear promising for medium-term entry with the goal of setting a new local high.
ETC/USDT Trading ScenarioAfter reaching a local high of $39.65, the price of ETC sharply corrected to $18.15, a drop of over 50%. According to the volume profile, the price fell into a local accumulation zone near the Point of Control (POC), from which a reversal movement began. Additionally, there was a third touch of the descending support level. In the current price range, buying the asset is appealing both for adding to a long-term portfolio and for a speculative trade, with potential to close the position around the resistance level of $39.65.
BBAI may move higher from deeply oversold LONGBBAI fell on an earnings miss on Thursday, March 7th. The downtrend of 30% was a
slow flush. Penny stocks are volatile, to begin with; this one is in the hottest of subsectors.
Price is in the hard oversold area just below the first lower VWAP line on this 15-minute chart
which is acting as resistance. the RSI lines are in the 30s-40s showing the price weakness. A
predictive forecasting algo from Luxalgo suggests move up.
I will buy this weakness on the prospect things will improve. I will take a long trade with tiered
targets on the chart. partial closures of 25% , 50 and 25% respectively with the targets shown on
the chart. The stop loss is 2.00 just below the current price. The entry will be a limit order /
buy stop set for 2.5 It is selected as a POC line crossover on the volume profile.
The trade is to be managed with partial closures directed by alerts and notifications as well as
a trailing stop loss of 5% once the price gain has reached 10-15%. This minimizes effort and
screen time so that they can be spread across a wider variety of trades.
SHIB/USDT Trading ScenarioAmid the overall negativity in the cryptocurrency market, SHIB has significantly dropped in price, falling from a local high of $0.00004605 to $0.00001272. This decline amounts to more than 70%. The asset's price has nearly reached a range of global interest among participants, as confirmed by the volume profile. Currently, there is an attempt to recover the price and consolidate below the downward-sloping resistance level.
We can anticipate a breakout of the downward-sloping resistance level, followed by consolidation above it and further price growth. The resistance level may be at $0.00002963.
However, the possibility of continued price decline should not be ruled out, with a potential drop to the Point of Control (POC) at $0.00001032 and a subsequent bounce from that level.
Volume Profiles Are Important! :)Price respects these value levels. They increase your trade potential exponentially.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
TRIP.com / Beginning of Up Trend Stock Beginning of the trend Stock, breaking the Wyckoff accumulation Phase
and has Volume Profile Normal Distribution Support
The volume from Accumulation Phase has not yet been sold out. It can continue with accumulated volume with first target at 261.8 Fibonacci Retracement and cluster with 161.8 of Fibonacci Extension.
Strategy Buy on dip at 368 - 390 for buy set 1 and if the price drops to 368, there is still buy set 2 at prices 330-355 by waiting for Reversal Pattern.
Trading in your plan with your faith,
C.Goii Super Trader
Long $ENPH till day after earnings report July 24.There’s is a huge lift for all battery and renewable energy companies right.
For example, META hired Evercore EVR, to the tune of $54B to build out 11 square mile solar powered data storage facilities for its push into A.I., which requires a lot of energy to run AI.So there’s a ton of money from the large cap MAG 7 companies going into this industry right now.
Based on the volume profile and the fib levels already breached, i would easily believe if ENPH just slightly beats rev & earnings, and has decent guidance.
Long Opportunity for SAGA/USDT Based on Volume Profile AnalysisOverview:
This trade idea focuses on a long position for SAGA/USDT using volume profile analysis to identify key support and resistance levels. The setup involves entering the trade in the support zone and targeting higher resistance levels.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The volume profile indicates significant trading activity around the $1.22 - $1.40 zone, which suggests this as a strong support area. This provides a good entry point for a long position.
Trade Setup:
Entry : Long position between $1.22 and $1.40
Stop Loss : Set at $1.20 to manage risk below the support zone.
First Resistance/Targe t: $1.53, identified as the first significant resistance level.
Strategy if First Target is Broken : If the price breaks above $1.53, consider opening an additional long position and move the stop loss to $1.53 to protect the trade.
Final Take Profit : $2.15, which is the ultimate profit target based on higher volume nodes and previous price action.
Indicators :
RSI: Currently showing bullish signals, indicating potential for upward momentum.
ADX: Confirming a strong trend, supporting the long trade setup.
Conclusion :
This trade setup leverages volume profile analysis to identify high-probability entry and exit points. Proper risk management is emphasized with clearly defined stop loss and profit targets.
Potential Short Opportunity for BTC/USD at $61,000Overview:
In this analysis, I present a short trade setup for BTC/USD with an entry point around $61,000. This idea is based on the confluence of volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracement zones.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The volume profile indicates significant trading activity around the $61,000 level, which suggests it as a strong resistance zone. This implies that there may be considerable selling pressure once the price reaches this level.
Fibonacci Retracement:
Applying the Fibonacci retracement from the swing high to the recent swing low, the 0.618 retracement level aligns closely with the $61,000 mark. This confluence adds strength to the resistance at this level, providing a high-probability short entry.
RSI and ADX Indicators:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing bearish divergence, indicating a potential reversal or pullback.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at a high level, suggesting a strong trend which could soon see a correction.
Trade Setup:
Entry : Short at $61,000
Stop Loss : Above the $62,500 level to allow some room for potential volatility.
Target : First target at $56,000 (next significant volume node), second target at $50,000 (support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension).
Conclusion:
This trade setup leverages technical analysis tools to identify a high-probability short entry point. As always, ensure proper risk management and adjust the trade parameters based on market conditions.
NEAR/USDT Trading ScenarioAfter reaching a local high of $8.981, NEAR corrected to $4.453, resulting in a decline of over 50%. Subsequently, the asset attempted to recover but failed to reach the previous local high and once again headed downward, retesting the $4.453 level and breaking below the 200-day moving average. Currently, the asset is trading near the newly formed resistance level and the 200-day moving average, with support provided by the volume profile.
Under current conditions and within the summer market context, a continuation of the downward movement can be expected with the aim of liquidity accumulation.
This situation appears quite attractive for opening a position in this asset and holding it until new significant sell signals emerge.
XRP/USDT Trading ScenarioThe XRP’s price has dropped to a significant support zone at the $0.4504 level. This is the fourth time the price has returned to this area.
Historically, the price has bounced off this zone. An increase in trading volume is also observed in this price area. This zone serves as an accumulation area.
In the future, a sharp price drop can be expected with the aim of gathering liquidity accumulated below this zone, followed by an upward price movement. The next resistance levels are at $0.6265 and $0.7493.
RNDR/USDT Trading ScenarioThe RNDR asset price demonstrated the formation of an inclined support level, which was successfully tested three times, followed by a confident rebound.
In parallel, an inclined resistance level is observed, from which the price bounced twice. In the context of the volume profile, the asset is trading in a range between $7.895 and $11.088.
Currently, the price has bounced off the sloping resistance level for the third time, which could lead to a continuation of the uptrend.
If the breakdown and consolidation above this level occurs, growth to the local maximum at $13.839 is possible.
XAUUSD Swing TrendXAUUSD Swing Trend
Down Trend in my 3 Trends Analysis
Open a Sell position when the price reaches the FVG zone and make a Reversal Pattern which is close to the Cancel Minor Trend line which is a short Stop Loss point and is also a significant line from the POC of Volume Normal Distribution above.
Still looking down And the downward momentum will look better when the price drops below 2280.
The target is to drop in the area of 2200 - 2150 which is the lower support zone.
Things to be careful about: Time Cycle, the latest low was exactly 21 days, so this set of downtrends should break the Low to head down for 34 days, according to the Fibonacci proportion.
Trade with faith in your beliefs and follow your own plan.
C.Goii SuperTrader
GME new bullish momentum LONGGME on a weekly chart has clear the chop zone on that indicator and is now above the POC
line of the long -term volume profile indicating that bullish momentum is greater than bearish
momentum. I will take a long trade here targeting the pivot highs of 2022 for three quarters
of the trade and the base of the high pivots of 2021 for the reminder. 21.7 below the POC
line will be the initial stop loss to be moved to break even upon a price rise of 10% from the
entry and then changed to a trailing loss of 10% upon another 10% price rise. I believe that
GME is heavily shorted; Accordingly, a short squeeze could add to the push higher.
MRNA Taking Profit, Watching for a add LONG after a pullback.MRNA has been on fire since the earnings beat 4 weeks ago and has added 60% to its market cap
in the past three months. It compares well with NVAX which as a prior penny stock has more
volatility and upside potential. In general vaccine stocks are performing well as COVID RSV
and influenza vaccines are active in research are Viral Hepatitis vaccine enhancements and
the drive for an HIV vaccine.
MRNA is strong and perhaps becoming overbought. The mass index indicator has topped and
maybe falling to the trigger line. I will take a one- third partial off my position here
and wait for a pullback with reversal to add back into the position at a lower price.
The tandem of MRNA and NVAX has been very profitable for me. Careful in trade management
will help me keep it that way.
BOME Trading ScenarioThe asset price chart has completed the correction from the $0.018578 level to the $0.007099 level, which represents more than 60% of the correction.
Currently, the asset is trading within the ascending trading channel, pushing away from the sloping support and resistance levels.
The volume profile indicates that participants continue to demonstrate interest in continuing the ascent within the channel.
Touching and rebounding from the sloping support level may be an optimal entry point for a position that will continue to grow, with a probability of subsequent breakdown of the sloping resistance level and continued upward movement.