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Volumespreadanalysis

Possible inch up for S&P 500 Futures until emergence of supply9 Apr 2020 recap - S&P 500 e-mini futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) attempted to break 2800 but encountered strong supply. Though supply was present on Thursday session, there is no significant bearish result. In fact, there is some absorption of the supply as shown in the demand tails on the H4 chart.  The presence of supply has caused shortening of the upward thrust, but it is not that threatening at the moment. Until we see emerging of supply together with bearish price action, it is possible for S&P 500 futures to inch up to test higher targets at around 2850 before a start of the down move to test 2700. Should ES broke 2750, 2700 is an important level to defend in order for the up trend to be intact. Bias - bullish (Anticipate limited upside).  Key levels - Resistance: 2800-2850 Support: 2750, 2700 Potential intraday setup - look for a test of 2750 to initiate long entry. There are also some trading opportunities by leaning on the smaller timeframe structures (such as M3, M5).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mingjong
Up Thrust of ES S&P500 future - What's next move?7 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) tested the target around 2700-2770 yesterday and had an up thrust movement on level 2700 before closing below 2650, as per my trading idea yesterday. It had a great run-up during the non regular trading hours (RTH). However, weakness did show up during the US session. ES was rejected from the target 2700-2770 with increasing supply. The down wave is the greatest for the H1 trend started from the low at 2450, suggests a change of character, which means that the up move could stop at least for now, into a trading range or even a reversal to move down. During today's non-RTH session, ES had a weak rally up, tested only 50% of the last hour bar from yesterday followed by a reversal bar, which could be a sign of weakness. Should ES break below the support levels at 2600-2635, it could test lower targets like 2400-2450 or even the selling climax's low at 2174. However, if the levels 2600-2635 are defended, with absorption characteristics, ES could test the swing high at around 2750 and possible to grind higher. Bias - bearish. Expect a break of 2600-2630 to test lower. Key levels - Resistance: 2650-2700 Support: 2600-2630. Swing high and swing low from lower timeframe. Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of swing high at 2658, 2680 and/or key levels followed by a reversal to short. If ES can commit below 2600, I will consider to switch the position to swing trade instead of day-trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES S&P500 future - breakout to start a bull run? Analog inside6 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) had a great rally to take out the immediate resistance at 2525 during the non-Regular Trading Hour (RTH) and to further commit above 2600-2635 during the RTH. Since ES broke out the trading range between 2440-2630, it is expected to test the higher target at 2700-2770. It is worth noting that the upside target at 2700-2770 coincides with : Fibonacci retracement of around 50% from the top (3397) to the selling climax (SC) low of 2174, as shown in the daily chart. Axis line or flip zone where there is strong resistance and supply available, as shown in the H4 chart. During the crash in Jan 2018, ES did up thrust twice before it came down to test the selling climax low. Using Jan 2018's event as an analog, we should be aware that an up thrust is a possible scenario. Bias - Slightly bullish. Expect ES to test the upside target but also prepare n up thrust bearish scenario similar to 2018. Key levels - Resistance: 2700-2770 Support: 2600-2635. Swing high and swing low from smaller timeframe Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of the key levels / smaller timeframe for a short entry. Possible long entry at the support should it happen.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Is the ES rally done yet? What's next?3 Apr 2020 recap - ES did rally to level 2525 and was rejected again. In smaller time frame (M1, M3), it did provide great short entry after the up thrust of the level. However, ES only managed to test 2450 and bounced up from there. The low volume without aggressive demand caused ES to drift down. Should ES still stuck below 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or even lower (i.e. the Selling climax's low), under the background of lacking of demand. Daily - After a sharp sell off, ES formed a selling climax (SC) low at 2174 followed by an automatic rally (AR). Now, it seems like the rally is coming to and end. The next move would be a secondary test (ST) to test the selling climax's low. It could in a form of a higher low, similar low or even lower low. Oct 2008 global financial crisis could provide a good analog for reference. Could we see a down-sloping accumulation structure similar to 2008? Weekly - a megaphone structure is formed. ES could potentially test the low as illustrated should a down-sloping structure in progress. This won't surprise me given the COVID-19 situation is getting worse every day and the impact on the businesses. Bias - bearish. If ES fails to commit above 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or lower, sooner or later. Key levels - Resistance: 2480, 2525. Support: 2450, 2400. Potential intraday setup - Look for a test or up thrust of the key levels and/or smaller timeframe to initiate a short entry. Yet, I will pay close attention for long opportunities like a spring of the swing low, shortening of the downward thrusts, etc... should it arise. Stay safe and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 3 Apr 2020 trading plan 2 Apr 2020 recap - Although yesterday was a bullish day, the character does not confirm this. It started with ugly numbers of jobless claims, which drove ES down to spring the low (around 2433) of the previous day followed by a rally up to test 2525 thanks to a spike up in crude oil. It was highlighted in M15 chart that the 2 candles tested the 2525 level has volume spike, suggests the demand was met by supply at this level. On the daily chart, candle b (yesterday) has slight increase of volume compare to candle a, yet the result (to the up side) is mediocre. The rally from yesterday only reached about half way of the previous down candle. This suggests supply was present and managed to stop the up move at level 2525. Bias - slightly bearish. If ES fails to break above 2525 with aggressive demand, it might break below the swing low at 2425 and test further down. Potential intraday setup - Look for how ES interacts with 2525 or structures in smaller timeframe. A short entry after a test or up thrust of level 2525 is preferred. Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2525 Support: 2450, 2425. Swing high and swing low from lower time frame. Note: Since yesterday has increase of supply, it is important to see how significant is the reaction. A trading range between 2425-2525 will be neutral. A break above 2525 is bullish and expect continuation of the rally. A break below 2425 should draw out more supply to test 2380 or lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 2 Apr 2020 trading plan 1 Apr 2020 recap - Major movement of ES happened during non-RTH. Level 2450 was tested from the last 4 H1 bars and defended eventually. The last hour bar did spring the prior swing low and form a demand tail. The magnitude of the down move might be significant but without aggressive supply. Daily volume is slightly lower than the previous day (31 Mar 2020). Result - did not commit below level 2550 and the swing low formed on 30 Mar 2020, suggests a bounce up from here. A trading range between 2450-2630 is expected. The down-sloping accumulation structure since 12 Mar 2020 is still valid. ES could have gone through a sign of strength (SOS) rally from 24-26 Mar 2020 and currently on a backup action before marking-up higher. Bias - Break above 2500 to challenge levels 2550, 2600 and the swing high (2630). Potential intraday setup - look for possible continuation of the rally if committed above 2500. Else, short into an up thrust of level 2500. Pay close attention on how ES interacts with the key levels for reversal trades. It is possible to switch to swing trade should the close is favorable. Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2550 Support: 2450 ; Prior day high 2509 and day low 2434; Swing high and swing low from lower time frame. Note: bullish bias is maintained until emergence of aggressive supply. During the unwinding of the volatility, expects relatively normal session without huge swing (up or down).
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 1 Apr 2020 trading plan 31 Mar 2020 recap - After tested the last hour bar from 30 Mar 2020, ES rallied up but failed to overcome the resistance formed by the swing high. Last hour supply spike is the greatest since the bottom was formed on 23 Mar 2020. Possible start of a reaction. Bias - swing down to test 2500, 2450. Potential intraday setup - Either direction can be traded. Watch out how the price interacts with the key levels and smaller structures to trade the reversal. Key levels - Resistance: 2550, 2600. Support: 2500, 2450. Note: Failure to defend the level 2450 should attract more supply to push the price down to test 2400 and/or the low formed on 23 Mar 2020. Bullish case will still be valid should ES stay above the level 2450.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by mingjong
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