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SPY 600+?According to Elliot Wave Theory, Chart Patterns, and Analysis of the option chains, SPY could potentially reach 600+ before long. Looking at Elliot Wave Theory: Currently price is in Wave #4. In EW, Wave #4 characteristics are opposite of Wave #2. Wave #2 in this cycle was short, so expect price to take a little longer to breakout, which brings us to the next observation: Chart Patterns: Price is starting to form an expanding descending wedge (or megaphone), a variation of a flag. Generally in these formations, price is volatile and the formation can hold in tact for a decent length of time. That being said, it’s the perfect scenario for a long Wave #4. When price touches the bottom trendline for the third time, look to go long a month out. Option Chain: January Contracts - neutral. November Contracts - bearish (just a hedge for tech earnings) In the options chain, a neutral or balanced chain means the market is bullish. When an inordinate amount of puts are bought, it generally means institutions are hedging their portfolios when markets turn volatile. (Earnings will definitely do that) Recap: Looking to go long once this formation breaks upwards for the afore mentioned reasons. If something changes, I’ll update this. (We can’t be married to our opinions) Ride Wave #5 with me.
AMEX:SPYLong
by DIVERMAN_L
2
2 Day Anchored VWAP on ES futuresInitially you have to understand what the volume weighted average price (VWAP) is. Broadly it can be defined as: Total dollars traded divided by the total shares for the period studied Vwap= ∑(Price∙Volume)/∑(Volume) This means that VWAP is more responsive to volume than price and its calculation does not depend on the timeframe we are in. It is also the most common benchmark used to compute transaction costs. what is the anchored VWAP ? The AVWAP is an indication of the average transaction price of the participants for however long it’s plotted. Normally the VWAP resets everyday at the start of the trading session, but the anchored vwap will continue its calculations from the candle it was anchored until the present bar meaning no resets in that period. In an uptrend buyers will try to defend that average entry price when price comes back to it. in the uptrend when the AVWAP is below price that means that the average participant is making money, when price crosses under they start to lose money and that could lead them to try to exit and push price even lower. So the cross of the AVWAP can mark a change on the near term trend. It is very important to mark the AVWAP from significant price levels or catalysts, in this case we will analyze the 2 Day anchored VWAP (2DAVWAP) on CME_MINI:ES1! futures. Where do you anchor the 2DAVWAP ? For example, if it's a wednesday morning you want to anchor the VWAP at monday 5pm CME_MINI:ES1! futures open. An easy way of finding the right candle to anchor is checking the "session breaks" option in the chart settings so after your session break line shows the next candle (in any timeframe) that will be the one anchored so you can trade it at the next session. How to trade it ? 1. It is very important that CME_MINI:ES1! is in a clear and strong uptrend, this is a following the trend strategy. It can also be used in downtrends but backtesting it has proven to me that long setups are the best setups. If CME_MINI:ES1! has been uptrending and then starts consolidating but starts to move up from a good support level you can also enter a setup on that market context. 2. Anchor the VWAP from the session open and wait until next day. 3. Wait until price retraces to the 2DAVWAP the next day. It only works when the retracement happens the next day, don't trade that anchored VWAP further than that. 2. Watch the price action - Volume when it reaches the AVWAP. Price action and volume should Show an effort of buyers to continue the trend, Candle should reach the 2DAVWAP and form a hammer candlestick closing above the AVWAP in the 15 min TF (best entry point, wait for candle close). 3. Mark the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from previous day low to the present day high. The lowest price can go for you to still consider entering the trade is the 50% retracement, lower than that you dismiss the trade. Go with confidence if there is a confluence between fib and the 2DAVWAP. 4. Set a Stop loss based on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is always try to enter the closest to were you would be wrong in a trade, which can be below the 50% retracement for example. 5. Set a Target profit based on maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is try to exit at least at previous highs if there is volatility on the day. Finally, the entry could be at any time of the day, it could happen at 2 am EST or it could happen at 10 am EST, it really does not matter. Always take trading seriously, stay discipline and do your own backtesting and find what works the best for you. I will be posting more educational posts on AVWAP. This strategy has only been backtested in CME_MINI:ES1! futures.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FTWTraders
Doji shooting star time to correctRSI is showing a bearish divergence on the daily with an overbought area and a lowered volume indicating a buying exhustion. I expect a retrace, question is where are the decent areas to look to re enter?? Well, now we can look at volume and levels of interest. So, we have a gap on the point of control and even though I dont think it is gonna fill it or even touch it we must consider it and prepare for the scenerio. if it goes there and partly fills that area (5.54) its still bullish and should enter. that means that even though there are a lot of people who expect it to fully fill and sell short the buyers were enough to defend that area and get rid of the pressure. So, that is scenerio 1 which imo is unlikely. Second more likely scenerio is: we go and retest area value high and create value there as the new area value low or POC: 6.25 a healthy retracement after breakout and it is also the fair value gap area, when it gets to that area you would like to see some hidden or regular bullish divergences. marked the level as support with a blue circle, it confluences with fibs levels and vwap crazy!. another scenerio is if we hold 7 usd without cleaning all these bad lows or yes cleaning them (if we support at 0.5 fib and not at 0.382) to me its unlikely because price is somewhat too expensive still compared to the value it had through the past couple of years so retesting previous levels is likely. im bullish on payo and i intend to add depends on how the price will act as it approaches these levels. i hope you all enjoyed my analysis.
NASDAQ:PAYOShort
by Captainobvious5454
Technical Analysis on Visa (V)Visa's stock ( V ) shows a clear long-term uptrend. Following a decline in 2022, it regained its 2021 highs in early 2024, breaking through resistance and continuing its upward trend. The stock reached new highs around the $290 area, then retraced, forming a bullish flag pattern, down to a support area near $250. Currently, it is testing the highs again in the $290 area, reached via a gap up after positive earnings and revenue announcements. If it confirms a breakout above resistance, with a potential retest, the stock could continue its bullish trend.
NYSE:VLong
by Giovanni_Bandini
I see channels everywhere‌:)As always, we start with cycles: HWC = upward trend MWC=range LWC=The trend is downward For long position: 📈For me, I trade with failure I will wait until the resistance of 2.3448 is broken so that I can open a long position Since we have both the DOW confirmation and the breakout channel, I think it would be a good place to position. Another confirmation Pay attention to the reduction in volume during the shedding process For shorts position: I📉 will wait until the support of 1.5996 breaks I will not open before that, I respect the upward trend If you want me to analyze a coin, tell me in the comment🫡 ⚠️ Do capital management to survive ⚠️
by parsa_xa
Technical Analysis on Cloudflare (NET)Cloudflare ( NET ) experienced exponential growth between 2020 and 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2022. This decline halted around a support level at approximately $40, which has been tested multiple times as a key level. Recently, the stock broke through a significant volume area, also surpassing a key resistance level that had been tested multiple times in the past. Bullish Scenario Currently, it appears to be in a retest phase. If this level can hold as new support, the stock could continue its upward trend, with an initial target around $130. Bearish Scenario If the retest fails, as it did in April 2024, the stock may retrace toward the POC area, located around $60. A move below this key level would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the critical $40 support, previously tested multiple times, where it could attempt to stabilize once again.
NYSE:NETLong
by Giovanni_Bandini
Nifty 50 Index - Head and Shoulders Pattern with Fibonacci ** Introduction :** The Nifty 50 Index on the NSE has shown a clear head and shoulders pattern on the 1-day time frame, followed by Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the 4-hour time frame. This combination of technical analysis tools provides valuable insights for traders looking to predict potential price movements. ** Head and Shoulders Pattern: ** The head and shoulders pattern is a reliable indicator of a potential trend reversal. In this case, the pattern suggests a bearish reversal: - **Left Shoulder:** The initial peak before the highest peak (head). - **Head:** The highest peak in the pattern. - **Right Shoulder:** The lower peak after the highest peak (head). The neckline, drawn at the lowest point between the shoulders, acts as a critical support level. A confirmed breakdown below this neckline indicates a strong sell signal. ** Fibonacci Retracement Levels: ** Fibonacci retracement levels help identify potential support and resistance levels where the price might react: - **0.00% at approximately 26,200.00 INR** - **23.60% at approximately 25,600.00 INR** - **38.20% at approximately 25,400.00 INR** - **50.00% at approximately 25,000.00 INR** - **61.80% at approximately 24,600.00 INR** - **78.60% at approximately 24,200.00 INR** - **100.00% at approximately 23,800.00 INR** ** Price Prediction:* * Given the head and shoulders pattern, the Nifty 50 Index is likely to experience a downward trend if the price breaks below the neckline. The Fibonacci retracement levels provide additional support levels where the price might stall or reverse. Traders should watch for key levels such as 25,000.00 INR and 24,600.00 INR. ** Conclusion :** Combining the head and shoulders pattern with Fibonacci retracement levels offers a comprehensive approach to predicting price movements in the Nifty 50 Index. Traders can use these tools to make informed decisions and manage their trades effectively. Proper risk management and position sizing are essential to maximize profits and minimize losses.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by stocktechbot