BTCUSD IS BULLISH BUT TRUMP MIGHT SPOIL IT, BEWARE!🧠 Context:
We’re looking at BTCUSD after a textbook liquidity sweep, demand zone reaction, and clear structure shift. This chart beautifully displays institutional order flow, giving us a high-probability long setup.
🔍 Detailed Breakdown:
✅ 1. Liquidity Sweep & Demand Reaction:
Price made a sharp move downward into a previous demand zone (marked red).
The move into 104,169–104,451 region swept sell-side liquidity resting below previous lows.
The strong bullish engulfing candle from that zone confirms mitigation of a bullish order block.
🔁 2. Break of Structure (BoS):
Post-demand tap, BTC broke above a minor supply structure, forming a higher high.
This is our confirmation of a short-term bullish market structure shift.
🎯 3. Entry Setup:
Price retraced slightly after the break of structure and appears to be forming a higher low.
Current price is around 105,309, a potential entry for longs.
🧱 4. Target Zones:
TP1: 105,800 – fill inefficiency zone
TP2: 106,130.21 – supply zone / previous high
SL: Below demand zone (~104,150) — below OB and liquidity sweep
🧊 5. Volume Profile Insight:
High volume node concentrated at the lower consolidation, signaling accumulation.
Price is now trading above POC, supporting a bullish continuation narrative.
🧭 Conclusion:
This BTCUSD setup shows classic Smart Money reversal mechanics:
✅ Liquidity grab
✅ Order block tap
✅ Structure break
✅ Volume confirmation
📈 Bias: Bullish
🎯 Long targeting 106,130
🛑 SL below 104,169
🔔 Manage risk and monitor lower timeframes for confirmation. BTC has room to run, but always watch reaction at key zones.
Volume
Rising from the Ashes: CUMMINS INDIA's Grand Wave 5 Launch?After a soul-sucking 11-month correction that chewed through every classic pattern — flats, triangles, zigzags, combos — CUMMINS INDIA may finally be ready for lift-off.
A WXYXZ correction has reached its climax in a clear Wave 4 low near ₹2580, completing the complex structure inside a descending channel.
But the game changed when price:
Broke the 200 SMA
Blasted through the channel
Punched RSI above 70 for the first time since May 2024
And did it with volume breakout
Now, all eyes are on Wave 5 — projected to aim for:
1.0 extension: ₹3569
1.618 extension: ₹3812
Can we reach a new ATH above ₹4171? It’s possible — if this unfolds through nested 1-2-3s, we may be witnessing the start of a larger degree rally.
Invalidation : Below ₹2706. If it breaks, the count may need a rework .
For now? Wait until it retraces to launchpad.?
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
SPY 1HR Pullback to Volume Buy Zone Before Bullish ContinuationI’m watching the 588.52–589.94 range as a high-probability buy zone on the SPY 1-hour chart. This zone aligns with a strong volume shelf, indicating prior institutional accumulation and heavy transaction flow.
After a sharp move into the 591s, we’re seeing some hesitation and potential for a healthy pullback. The plan is to wait for price action to return to the buy zone, show signs of strength (e.g., hammer candle, strong bounce), and look for a continuation toward the previous high of 593.46 and possibly higher.
🔹 Buy Zone: 588.52–589.94
🔹 Volume Profile Support: High node at ~589
🔹 Resistance: 591.12 short-term, then 593.46
🔹 Stop Loss: Below 586.76 to avoid false breakouts
🔹 Target: 593.50+ with higher timeframe continuation in mind
GBP/USD - Rejection of lower prices On GBP/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.34370.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Rejection of lower prices and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
EUR/USD - continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.12890 and 1.12460 .
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5989. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Fair Value GAP (FVG) and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Silver micro: range breakoutSilver micro futures are trading in range for approx 13 days now. Currently trying to break the range with high relative volume. If it sustains above 98450, breakout can continue and range expansion in prices may happen. The stoploss at current price is very small as compared to the probable reward. Very high probability trade with a smaller risk.
Silver micro is in uptrend. and this is continuation breakout trade.
Understanding VWAP In TradingWhat is VWAP?
VWAP is a price benchmark that gives more importance to prices where higher trading volume occurs. Unlike simple moving averages, which treat each price point equally, VWAP provides a volume-weighted perspective, making it more representative of market activity.
Traders use VWAP to gauge market trends, confirm trade entries and exits, and measure the quality of executions relative to the market's liquidity.
How Institutional Traders Use VWAP
Large financial institutions and mutual funds execute large orders over time to minimize their market impact.
VWAP helps them:
Achieve better execution by ensuring their orders are filled at a price close to the session's average.
Reduce market impact by avoiding aggressive buying or selling at extreme price points.
Gauge liquidity and time their orders efficiently.
Role of VWAP in Algorithmic Trading
VWAP is integral to algorithmic trading strategies that automate order execution.
Algorithms use VWAP in:
VWAP Trading Strategies: Algorithms execute orders in line with VWAP to avoid moving the market.
Mean Reversion Trading: Traders look for deviations from VWAP, buying when the price is below and selling when it is above.
Liquidity-Based Order Execution: Algorithms track VWAP to execute trades more efficiently, particularly in high-frequency trading (HFT).
Why VWAP is a Critical Benchmark for Intraday Traders
For short-term traders, VWAP provides key insights into market behavior:
Trend Confirmation: If the price is above VWAP, it indicates bullish sentiment; below VWAP suggests bearish conditions.
Entry and Exit Points: Traders use VWAP as support/resistance for trade decisions.
Institutional Footprint: Retail traders track VWAP to understand where large orders might be executing.
Since VWAP resets daily, it remains a highly relevant indicator for gauging intraday momentum and trend strength.
Calculation
Where:
Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3 (Typical Price for each period)
Volume = The total number of shares/contracts traded in the period
Understanding How VWAP is Calculated:
Calculate the Typical Price (TP): TP=High+Low+Close/3
Multiply TP by Volume for each time period to get the Cumulative Price-Volume product.
Sum the Price-Volume values cumulatively throughout the day.
Divide by the cumulative volume up to that time.
Since VWAP is cumulative from the market open, it resets at the start of each trading day.
Difference Between VWAP and Moving Averages
VWAP
Volume-weighted
Resets daily
Determines fair value in a session
Reacts to volume spikes
Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)
Equal-weighted (SMA) or Exponentially weighted (EMA)
Continuous across multiple sessions
Identifies overall trend direction
Reacts to price changes
How to Interpret VWAP
When the price is above VWAP: It suggests that the market is in an uptrend, and VWAP may act as support if the price retraces.
When the price is below VWAP: It signals a downtrend, and VWAP may act as resistance if the price attempts to rise.
Reclaiming VWAP: If the price moves below VWAP but then breaks back above it, this could signal a bullish reversal. The opposite is true for a bearish scenario.
VWAP and Market Trend Identification
Uptrend: If the price remains consistently above VWAP and VWAP itself is sloping upward, the market is in an uptrend.
Downtrend: If the price stays below VWAP and VWAP is sloping downward, the market is in a downtrend.
Sideways Market: If the price oscillates around VWAP and VWAP remains flat, the market is range-bound.
VWAP Standard Deviations (Bands) and Their Significance
First Standard Deviation (VWAP ±1σ)
Represents a normal fluctuation around VWAP.
Prices bouncing within this range indicate balanced market activity.
Second Standard Deviation (VWAP ±2σ)
Suggests stronger price movement.
A move beyond this level may indicate an overbought (above VWAP) or oversold (below VWAP) condition.
Third Standard Deviation (VWAP ±3σ)
Extreme price movement; rarely sustained.
A reversion back toward VWAP is highly likely.
Misinterpreting VWAP Signals
Many traders assume that VWAP alone dictates market direction. However, simply being above or below VWAP does not automatically mean the market is bullish or bearish. Market structure, momentum, and external factors such as news events or institutional order flows must also be considered.
How to Avoid It?
Look for Confirmation: Use VWAP in combination with price action and other indicators, such as volume, market structure, and momentum oscillators (e.g., RSI or MACD).
Check the Trend of VWAP: If VWAP is sloping upward and price is above it, this signals strength. Conversely, a downward-sloping VWAP with price below it indicates weakness.
Observe Price Interaction with VWAP: If the price consistently bounces off VWAP and continues in the trend direction, it confirms its role as dynamic support or resistance. If the price frequently crosses VWAP back and forth without clear direction, it signals a choppy, range-bound market.
Strategies
VWAP Bounce
If the price pulls back to VWAP and holds, traders may look for a long entry (in an uptrend) or a short entry (in a downtrend).
Stop-loss orders are often placed slightly beyond VWAP in case of a trend reversal.
VWAP Breakout
If the price consolidates near VWAP and then breaks out strongly, traders may enter in the direction of the breakout.
A sustained break above VWAP signals strength, while a break below VWAP signals weakness.
VWAP as a Reversion Point
Traders monitor price deviations from VWAP. If the price moves too far from VWAP, a reversion trade back toward VWAP may be expected.
Key Takeaways
VWAP Represents Fair Value – It calculates the average price of a security, weighted by volume, giving traders insight into where most of the trading activity has occurred.
Intraday Benchmark – VWAP resets daily and is primarily used by intraday traders and institutions to assess whether prices are trading at a premium or discount.
Support and Resistance Tool – VWAP often acts as dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends, helping traders make entry and exit decisions.
Institutional Trading Guide – Large institutions use VWAP to execute orders efficiently, minimizing market impact and ensuring better fills.
VWAP vs. Moving Averages – Unlike moving averages, which continue across multiple sessions, VWAP is cumulative from the market open and resets each day.
Trend Confirmation – Price above a rising VWAP signals a strong uptrend, while price below a declining VWAP suggests a downtrend.
Avoid Over-Reliance – While useful, VWAP should be combined with volume analysis, price action, and other indicators to avoid false signals.
VWAP Bands for Overbought/Oversold Levels – Standard deviation bands around VWAP can help identify price extremes and potential mean reversion setups.
VWAP is more than just an average—it's the heartbeat of market sentiment, revealing where true liquidity and fair value align.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
Bitcoin is making it real simple#BTC just moved out the supply/demand zone via an upward channel on declining volume to make a new all time high. Came back down to test that supply demand zone and failed that test to no surprise from me. It moved back into that zone and tested another breakout and failed that as well again to no surprise.
On top of that, the RSI failed the test of the bullzone and is now below the EMA and looks like it will fail that test as well.
The good news is CRYPTOCAP:BTC appears to have established its trade range for accumulation and will present opportunities for traders and buy and holders.
#BTC
#Wyckoff
ANGEL ONE - Potential Cup Pattern Breakout!Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Pattern: Cup Formation (shown with arc)
Setup:
Price is forming a classic cup pattern.
The neckline (arc resistance) is near 2538.40.
Price has recently approached but faced resistance around the neckline.
Once the price breaks above the arc line with strong volume, a bullish breakout could be confirmed!
Targets After Breakout:
🎯 Target 1: 2800
🎯 Target 2: 3000
Stop-loss suggestion: As per your risk management.
Notes:
Price is currently below the 200 EMA. For a strong confirmation, look for a close above the arc and the 200 EMA with volume spike.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves substantial risk.
BCH Analysis for Scalpers (1H)Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently showing multiple technical signals that support a potential bullish continuation.
A reversed Head and Shoulders pattern is in the process of forming, and it aligns well with several key confluences — including the Ichimoku Cloud and volume profile support zones.
A breakout above the $430 level would not only confirm the pattern but also activate a bullish flag formation, adding further momentum to the setup. In that case, the next immediate target would be around $452.4.
This setup remains valid only upon confirmation of the breakout. Until then, caution is advised — a clean break and retest would offer the most favorable entry.
— Thanks for reading.
[20250526] Gold - True Bull or Liquidity Trap This Week?Key Dynamic Levels Guide: Previous Grey/Black, Green/Magenta, and Red/Blue dynamic levels mark important zones where Smart Money (SM) has positioned itself. These levels are crucial liquidity pools, as support and resistance (S/R) frequently revisit these zones. Check their values by hovering your mouse for guidance before proceeding.
4H key-level confluence can be refer in published Idea titled: Gold – Structural Bull Bias - One Leg Down Still Anticipated? refer the related post --->
📊 Weekly Market Intent – Gold Analysis
Gold has recently tested the 3360+ zone, showing renewed bullish momentum. However, system-based structure mapping suggests that this move might still be part of a broader setup—rather than a confirmed breakout.
📌 Market Structure & Key Levels
A possible ABCDE triangle structure remains in play, where price is either concluding Wave-C or initiating Wave-D. If this formation holds, a pullback toward 3044–2950 could materialize before Wave-E completes and resumes the larger bullish trend.
The market also aligns with a potential 3-Drive bearish trap, where recent highs attract late buyers before deeper liquidity moves unfold.
🔹 Key Dynamic Levels (4H Confluence):
Bull VAH (Grey Line): 3317.52 – Key retracement level in a bullish environment.
Bull POC (Light Green): 3313.55 – Defines bullish sentiment zone.
Blue Line (Bull Bias Limit): 3254.26 – A breach would indicate deeper pullback risk.
Red Line (Bear Bias Limit): 3369.81 – A decisive break suggests bullish continuation.
Liquidity Levels: 3401.21 (upper target) | 3212.57 (lower target).
🧐 Market Sentiment & Next Move
Current sentiment indicates bullish bias with bear presence, as the market attempts lower support levels before a bullish continuation.
Bullish Continuation: Price moving past 3366 could signal a breakout, with unconfirmed top resistance levels remaining untested before further upside.
Bearish Presence: Below 3313.55, sell-side pressure could intensify. Below the bull bias limit (3254.26), deeper downside traction suggests a short-cycle bearish move until a rebound occurs above the newly formed dynamic bear bias limit.
🧠 Reversal / Invalidation Conditions
Bullish Strength Holds: Trading above 3253.57, with unsuccessful bear attempts, suggests bullish sentiment remains intact.
Bearish Shift: A failed support at 3290 and successful retest reinforce downside pressure. Momentum and volume remain key for validating the shift.
📌 System-Based Order Limits
Daily Order Limits
Buy: 3350.95 | SL: 3281.20 | TP: 3399.82
Sell: 3302.39 | SL: 3372.14 | TP: 3253.52
Weekly Order Limits
Buy: 3335.02 | SL: 3192.49 | TP: 3434.89
Sell: 3235.80 | SL: 3378.33 | TP: 3135.93
Monthly Order Limits
Buy: 3374.47 | SL: 3097.33 | TP: 3568.65
Sell: 3181.54 | SL: 3458.68 | TP: 2987.36
📌 Final Insight
Market intent unfolds dynamically, and structure-driven decision-making ensures anticipation zones remain valuable references.
📢 Gawai Festival Notice: As I’ll be away for the season’s harvest festival, I may not provide further updates on next shifts. However, this weekly confluence bias should guide traders in navigating market ranges effectively.
Stay disciplined, wait for liquidity validation, and let Smart Money footprints lead the way.
Wishing all traders a profitable week ahead! See you next week. 🚀