ADITYA BIRLA CAPITAL LTD – Trend Reversal Breakout Trade🧠 Technical Highlights:
Downtrend Channel Breakout: Clear breakout from a falling channel pattern
Resistance Break: Strong breakout above supply zone of ₹204–₹210
Volume: Massive volume spike validates bullish strength
RSI: Above 70, indicating strong momentum but not overbought yet
🟢 Buy Setup
Buy Above: ₹219 (today's close confirms breakout)
Stoploss: ₹204 (below the previous resistance/new support)
Target 1: ₹235
Target 2: ₹248
Target 3: ₹260+ (swing/high-risk high-reward)
🔻 Sell/Short Setup (only if reversal)
Sell Below: ₹203
Stoploss: ₹210
Target: ₹190, ₹178
📅 Timeframe: Short-to-Medium Term (2–6 weeks)
📊 Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5
For Education Purposes Only
Volume
APLAPOLLO- All time high possible!!!APLAPOLLO is nearing its all time high level. Stock is nearing this level with relatively higher volume.
Stock has recorded double digit growth in last consecutive 2 quarters.
Margins have also expanded by roughly 40%.
Company has also expanded its CAPEX budget in coming years.
Overall it's a good technofunda stock to watch. Add to watchlist.
MSTR 2025 PROJECTION Technical Summary – MSTR (1D)
🔹 Current Price: $421.84
🔹 Trend: Bullish with strong momentum from key support zones.
Key Support Zones
$350–320 Zone: Recent consolidation area. Could act as support on a pullback.
Unfilled GAP: Between roughly $300–320. Price may gravitate here if $350 support breaks.
Weekly Bottom: $236.01 – strong structural support.
Institutional Buys:
"BOUGHT 4.3B" indicates institutional demand around $240.
Historical accumulation around $100–80.
Major institutional demand between $80–60.
Sell Zones / Resistance Levels
SOLD 6.3B (red box): Prior distribution area between ~$460 and ~$520.
TARGET 475 USD: Strong technical resistance.
TARGET 800 USD (Block W-D): Extended upside target if price breaks above $475 with conviction.
Possible Scenarios and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
A break and hold above $475 → likely path toward $800.
Watch for confirming volume.
Bearish / Pullback Scenario:
Rejection at $460–475 could lead to:
Retest of $350–320 zone.
Gap fill near $300–320.
If momentum fades, next strong support is $236 (weekly bottom).
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US100 Cash CFD – 1H Chart Analysis using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 21,250
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,850
Point of Control (POC): 20,847.54 (Previous), 20,084.76 (Earlier POC)
High-volume nodes:
Strong cluster near 20,850–21,000: confirmed price acceptance.
Minor node around 21,235–21,250: current area being tested.
Low-volume gaps:
Between 21,050 and 21,150 – fast move area if price breaks.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Upside:
21,250 (new high, recent wick rejection) – likely stop clusters above.
Downside:
21,000 – last breakout consolidation zone.
20,850 – absorption and prior POC zone.
Absorption Zones:
Significant delta volume activity near 20,850 – signs of large orders being filled.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Volume spike reversal high: 21,250 (upper wick + rejection)
Volume spike reversal low: 20,850 (strong bounce)
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Confirmed uptrend, now showing signs of range-bound behavior post-breakout.
ADX Strength:
ADX > 20, DI+ > DI- earlier = strong uptrend.
Currently flattening, indicating possible transition to range/consolidation.
CVD Confirmation:
Rising CVD during breakout leg, now diverging (sideways/slight dip) = demand exhaustion possible.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
VAL: 20,850
POC: 20,847.54
Psychological & structural: 21,000
Resistance:
VAH: 21,250
Previous intraday top: 21,243–21,250
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Swing High: 21,250
Swing Low: 20,084
Key retracement levels (from 20,084 to 21,250):
1/2: 20,667
1/3: 20,472
2/3: 20,889
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
Bullish overall, transitioning into range-bound consolidation at the top.
b) Notable Patterns:
Channel/Wedge forming above 21,000 with downside risk to mid-level support.
Potential double top near 21,250 with divergence in CVD.
Volume gap retest likely if price slips below 21,100.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend continuation):
Entry Zone: 21,000–21,030 (retest support + consolidation base)
Targets:
T1: 21,200
T2: 21,250
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,850
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm trend reversal):
Entry Zone: 21,240–21,250 (supply zone + divergence)
Target:
T1: 21,000
Stop-Loss (SL): 21,300
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk 1–2% of trading capital per trade for optimal capital preservation.
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Chart Analysis using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,260
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,217
Point of Control (POC): 3,234.27
High-volume nodes: Around 3,234 – confirms consolidation and price acceptance.
Low-volume gaps: Below 3,210 and above 3,275 – potential zones for fast moves.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Clusters Likely At:
Upside: 3,260 (prior swing highs).
Downside: 3,200 & 3,175 (multiple swing lows).
Order Absorption Zones (Delta Spikes):
Near 3,234 and 3,217 – large volume with minimal price movement (potential absorption).
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High (Volume Spike): 3,275 (bearish rejection)
Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3,200 (bullish absorption)
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Currently range-bound, with a possible bullish structure forming (wedge channel).
ADX Strength:
ADX < 20: Weak trend, range likely.
CVD Confirmation:
Recent rising CVD + price holding above POC = early demand signs
Watch for breakout above 3,240 for stronger confirmation.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
VAL: 3,217
POC: 3,234
Swing Low: 3,200 (absorption)
Resistance:
VAH: 3,260
Swing High: 3,275 (recent rejection zone)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Gann Swing Low: 3,200
Confirmed Gann Swing High: 3,275
Key Retracements from 3,275 to 3,200:
1/2: 3,237.5
1/3: 3,250
2/3: 3,225
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
Neutral to Bullish Bias – structure forming higher lows within ascending channel.
b) Notable Patterns:
Falling wedge breakout attempt.
Retest of POC zone (3,234) – critical for bullish continuation.
Potential double bottom formation near 3,200.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 3,234–3,230 (POC support zone)
Targets:
T1: 3,250 (Gann 1/3 retrace & mid-channel)
T2: 3,275 (swing high resistance)
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,215 (below VAL + structure invalidation)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If breakdown below 3,217 confirmed):
Entry Zone: 3,215–3,217
Target:
T1: 3,200
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,235 (above POC)
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk 1–2% of trading capital per trade.
Its A Prime Set Up Guys, May 13th May 13th there will be a press conference with the CEO I think.
All techinals show a sharp fall will occur soon and I bet its the 13th.
Reached the top of the trend line and we are very over extended. Ying and a yang, time for the yang.
See my price path for a rough guess.
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,780
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,020
Point of Control (POC):
Recent: 20,066.23
Historical: 19,824.71
High-volume nodes: Dense volume around 19,820–20,070 suggests strong accumulation
Low-volume gaps: 20,200–20,400 and 20,600–20,780 (rapid price movement zones)
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stops likely clustered:
Below 20,070 (last breakout support)
Above 20,800 (recent intraday high)
Absorption zones: Near 20,066 – notable price base before rally; high delta confirms buying interest
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 20,808 – fresh high with slowing momentum, possible exhaustion
Swing Low: 19,824.71 – firm bottom established, high volume zone pre-breakout
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Strong uptrend confirmed by consistent CVD rise and price breakout
ADX Strength:
ADX > 20 with DI+ > DI- – Confirmed bullish trend
CVD Confirmation:
Rising CVD + sustained price breakout = strong buyer demand in the rally leg
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
20,066.23 (POC and structural breakout base)
19,824.71 (historical accumulation and value base)
Resistance:
20,808 (recent high)
21,000 (psychological level + projected target zone)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Swing Low (Gann): 19,824.71
Retracement Levels from 20,808 High:
1/2: 20,316
2/3: 20,482 (key support if price dips)
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bullish trend established (confirmed by CVD & ADX)
b) Notable Patterns:
Breakout from consolidation with volume near 20,066
Parallel ascending channel forming – healthy trend structure
Price currently testing upper boundary of channel – watch for breakout or pullback
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 20,320 – 20,400 (pullback into Gann retracement zone)
Targets:
T1: 20,808 (prior high)
T2: 21,100 (channel projection + round level)
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,020 (below VAL + swing low support)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 20,800 – 20,850 (if rejection pattern forms with falling CVD)
Target:
T1: 20,066 (volume base)
Stop-Loss (SL): 21,100
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1–2% of capital per trade, based on distance from entry to SL
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe Using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,360.00
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,220.00
Point of Control (POC): 3,234.30 (current session), 3,382.79 (previous session)
High-volume nodes: 3,255 – 3,275 range shows emerging absorption
Low-volume gaps: 3,280 – 3,300 and 3,340 – 3,360 indicate potential resistance zones
b) Liquidity Zones:
Clustered Stops: Around 3,300 (swing high), 3,220 (recent swing low)
Absorption Zones: POC zone at 3,234.3 with heavy CVD divergence and bounce
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 3,382.79 – confirmed rejection with strong volume and price reversal
Swing Low: 3,234.30 – high-volume absorption, currently acting as support
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Currently range-bound with minor bullish divergence forming
ADX Strength:
ADX ≈ 18 – weak trend, choppy conditions
CVD Confirmation:
Recent rising CVD despite flat price = hidden demand
Past falling CVD + bearish move to 3,234.3 = strong supply area confirmed
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
3,234.30 (POC)
3,220.00 (VAL and swing low)
Resistance:
3,275.00 (minor rejection zone)
3,300.00 (psychological + structure)
3,360.00 (VAH)
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Gann Swing Low: 3,234.30
Retracement Levels from 3,382.79 High:
1/2: 3,308.55
2/3: 3,316.86
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Currently range-bound, transitioning with a potential bullish breakout bias
b) Notable Patterns:
Emerging ascending wedge/channel forming in recent candles
Prior double-bottom near 3,234 with bullish CVD divergence
Testing lower trendline (accumulation possibility)
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 3,240 – 3,250
Targets:
T1: 3,275
T2: 3,308
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,220
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 3,300 – 3,308 (near wedge resistance)
Target:
T1: 3,234
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,360
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade. Calculate position size based on SL distance and capital base.
Bitcoin: Sellers Still Holding Their GroundHey traders and investors!
On the daily and weekly timeframes – sideways ranges (boundaries marked in black on the chart). The current initiative is from the seller.
📌 Yesterday, the seller made an effort to push the price down — this shouldn't be ignored.
📊 Targets on the chart:
Weekly TF: 96,500
Daily TF: 89,256
10-day TF: 99,475 (upper boundary of the buyer zone)
Although I expect the price to continue moving up, it's not advisable to look for buy setups until clear signs of buyer strength appear.
🚨 Selling is risky (details in the post about the 10-day TF).
👀 Observing.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
5/13 Gold Trading Signals🌞Good afternoon everyone!
Yesterday, gold successfully entered the 3218–3198 buy zone, delivering notable profits.
So far, the price has tested both the 3218 support and the 3246 resistance multiple times, reflecting a fierce battle between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, bulls appear slightly favored in the short term, with major resistance located between 3286–3320.
⚠️ However, if gold fails to break through this area and reverses, it may initiate a medium-term downtrend, potentially falling toward the 3169–3110 zone.
📌 Trading Recommendations for Today:
Sell Zone: 3305 – 3330
Buy Zone: 3208 – 3178
Flexible Trading Ranges:
▫️ 3218 – 3252
▫️ 3282 – 3248
▫️ 3252 – 3303
S&P 500 – an ascending channel on Daily Daily Chart (D1) :
I'm observing an ascending channel, with a potential manipulation near its lower boundary.
If that happens, we may see the formation of a bullish pivot point.
Hourly Chart (H1) :
I've marked the boundaries of the daily channel on H1.
There’s an unfilled gap below, and price might revisit that area.
I’m watching the 5690.7 level closely — it could act as a key zone for potential long setups.
📈 If 5690.7 holds , possible long targets include:
🎯 A break above the local high at 5848
🎯 The upper boundary of the channel, which closely aligns with the anticipated bullish pivot point target
📉 If price fails to hold above 5690.7 and breaks lower,
I’ll start considering short scenarios and will update this idea accordingly.
Force motors a strong stockThis is what a strong stock looks like in volatile market. Quick bounce to new high ground after a short pullback.
Due to market pressure stock briefly crossed all time highs but came back in the same day of breakout.
But now as the geopolitical situation improved stock quickly bounced back to all time highs with high relative volume. This shows the strength in stock and kind of support to stock.
Keep watching NSE:FORCEMOT
DIS is already at $96.… Don’t miss the train!🚨 🎢✨Disney (DIS) is pushing up and showing strength — are you watching this move? 👀 We’ve been eyeing entry levels between $91 and $81, but with the price at $96.30, this setup is heating up faster than expected! 🔥
Sometimes the perfect dip doesn’t come — and waiting too long can mean watching the rocket 🚀 from the sidelines. If you’re still tracking DIS, this might be your sign to stay alert and have your strategy ready. 🎯
Potential targets? Still aiming for that juicy $100–$120 range if momentum continues! 📈💰
Let’s see how it plays out — keep your plan tight and emotions out. Are you in, or still waiting? 😎👇
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
ZARJPY - (3 hours chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Short-term.ZARJPY - South African Rand / Japanese Yen (3 hours chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 1.9
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 8.084
Entry limit ~ 8.050 on May 12, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 8.160 (+1.37%; +0.110 points)
2. Target limit ~ 8.250 (+2.48%; +0.200 points)
Stop order limit ~ 7.945 (-1.30%; -0.105 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
NASDAQ - continue with the UptrendOn NASDAQ , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 20150.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5684.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
(FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,500
Value Area Low (VAL): 20,000 (approx. based on volume shading)
Point of Control (POC): 20,062.08
High-volume nodes: Dense around 20,050–20,100 – indicative of value acceptance.
Low-volume gaps: Sharp price movement through 20,150–20,250 – price could revisit here swiftly.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Cluster Zones:
Order Absorption Zones:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High Volume Spike: Near 20,500 – rejection occurred with CVD flattening.
Swing Low Volume Spike: 20,000 – strong reversal point, indicates buyer interest.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend currently, but potential divergence forming.
ADX Strength:
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Confirmed High: 20,506
Recent Confirmed Low: 20,000
Retracements:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Short-term Bullish, but with early signs of divergence (based on projected price/CVD path)
Confirmed by breakout above POC with rising CVD initially.
b) Notable Patterns:
Ascending Channel Breakout: Strong push above upper boundary on momentum.
Volume Gap Fill Potential: Price may return to 20,250 or lower on exhaustion.
POC Retest Scenario: High probability of price testing 20,062 if strength fades.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If uptrend sustains):
Entry Zone: 20,250–20,300 (channel midpoint or pullback after breakout)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,150 (below volume gap midpoint)
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If divergence confirms):
Entry Zone: 20,500–20,525 (fakeout/stop hunt zone)
Target:
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,600
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.
CHFZAR - Swiss Franc / S A Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - LongCHFZAR - Swiss Franc / South African Rand (Daily chart, OANDA) - Long Position; Mid-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {Volatility risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 5
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 21.81000
Entry limit ~ 21.65000 on May 12, 2025
Target limit ~ 22.65000 (+4.62%)
Stop order limit ~ 21.45000 (-0.92%)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) – 1H Timeframe using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 3,382.24
Value Area Low (VAL): 3,275.00 (approximate visual level)
Point of Control (POC): 3,338.10
High-Volume Nodes: Concentrated around 3,338–3,350 (volume acceptance zone).
Low-Volume Gaps: Sharp drop region near 3,310 to 3,295 indicates a lack of market interest – prone to fast moves.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Cluster Zones:
Order Absorption Zones:
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High (Volume Spike): Near 3,381–3,382 (sharp rejection, bearish orderflow).
Swing Low (Volume Spike): 3,272–3,275 zone, likely buyer absorption.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Downtrend (recent bearish pressure from CVD with price).
ADX Strength:
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Confirmed High: 3,382
Recent Confirmed Low: 3,272
Retracements from High to Low:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bearish-Ranging Hybrid
Confirmed by low ADX (weak trend) but bearish pressure from CVD + lower highs.
b) Notable Patterns:
Bearish Flag: Price consolidating inside a descending channel after a breakdown.
POC Retest Failure: Indicates inability to reclaim value area – bearish bias.
Projection Path: Shows two outcomes – further drift down vs. range reclaim, with downside currently dominant.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bearish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: 3,325–3,330 (POC rejection zone)
Target:
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,345 (above 1/3 Gann level and rejection wick)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): Minimum 1:2
b) Bullish Entry (only if reclaim confirmed above POC):
Entry Zone: 3,340–3,345 (on confirmed reclaim with bullish CVD crossover)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 3,325 (below reclaim point)
RR: 1:2 minimum
c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.