Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US100 1H Chart using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,035 (approx. from most recent high-volume node)
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,710
Point of Control (POC):
High-Volume Nodes: Clustered between 19,850 – 20,050 (heavy volume activity)
Low-Volume Gaps: Between 19,700 – 19,800 (could act as fast move zones)
b) Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity Pools:
Order Absorption: Observed near 19,850 (buy side absorption with wicks and CVD reaction)
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 20,035 with volume tapering and price exhaustion
Swing Low: 19,710 showing high delta rebound and large wick
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend (price making HH/HL, supported by rising channel)
ADX Strength: ADX > 20, DI+ > DI- → Confirmed bullish trend
CVD Confirmation:
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
Resistance:
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Recent Swing Low: 19,710 (1/3 retracement zone)
Key Retracement Levels:
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bullish (confirmed by ADX > 20 and CVD rising)
b) Notable Patterns:
Bullish Ascending Channel clearly forming with higher lows
Price pulled back to mid-channel + POC confluence, showing signs of retest and continuation
No major bearish reversal patterns yet; healthy pullback structure
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 19,850–19,875 (POC retest + trendline support)
Targets:
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,700 (below VAL and swing low)
RR: ~1:2.5
b) Bearish Entry (Only on breakdown):
Entry Zone: Below 19,700 (VAL loss + CVD breakdown)
Target: T1: 19,422.18 (previous POC support)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,860 (back above trendline/POC)
RR: ~1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade for controlled exposure
Volume
USDCAD Monthly – Seller Initiative in PlayHey traders and investors!
Take a look at the monthly chart of USDCAD.
The price has been in a sideways range for quite some time, and the seller initiative is currently active.
📌 At the upper boundary of the range, a seller zone (red box) has formed, along with a seller-side Decision bar (IKC), which has now hit the buyer zone (blue box).
⚠️ With this structure, it makes more sense to look for short setups.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
Microsoft after earningsMicrosoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) reached the $425 target after strong post-earnings momentum.
Price is now testing a key weekly resistance between $400 and $450.
Immediate support is at $400.
As long as it holds above this level, the trend remains bullish.
Watch the $425–$400 gap for potential retracement.
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MKL - Markel Group Inc. (Daily chart, NYSE) - Long PositionMKL - Markel Group Inc. (Daily chart, NYSE) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volatility risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.21
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 1793
Entry limit ~ 1793 on April 28, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 1835 (+2.34%; +42 points)
2. Target limit ~ 1855 (+3.46%; +62 points)
Stop order limit ~ 1765 (-1.56%; -28 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
SUI SHORTRecently, SUI has failed to break structure and to make a higher yet hence made a lower high and displaced its bullish fvg with a bearish one. Making a footprint which I will utilize. On the graph you can see my entry as well as my target. A untapped 4h OB
Goodluck !
I always appreciate a follow, thanks :)!
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection:
1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely
2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb
3) at 200 ema
In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap
My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
NVDA LTFLocal price action - the gap from 4/29 was filled in, but it left another gap on 4/30. During aftermarket hours, the price jumped up and approached the weekly level above but got rejected and finished the day red. We got a naked untapped pivot point below along with the range POC point of control.. not a bad week of price action.
From a range perspective price deviated to both sides and finisheded the day seemingly falling back into range. Let's see how the week ends.
Nvda low time frameLocal price action - the gap from 4/29 was filled in, but another was left on 4/30. During aftermarket hours the price jumped up to approach the weekly level above and dropped back down. We got a naked untapped pivot point below along with the range POC point of control, not a bad week of price action.
First lookFirst look at CRWV, some basic monthly weekly daily levels, range POC point of control, and a speed resistance fan, which price shot up into at the moment. If I was looking to get involved I'd wait for a slight retrace into the SP below left behind because of the gap that was left from the day before
Gold — Buyer Power or Pause?The monthly candle closed as a strong buyer candle with significant volume.
This shows strong interest from both buyers and sellers at current levels.
Yesterday, on the daily timeframe, a seller-side IKC appeared (IKC or decision candle — the highest-volume candle within initiatives inside a sideways range).
That puts the current long targets into question — we now need to see a clear show of buyer strength.
📉 The price is currently near the 50% level of the weekly initiative — 3228.382, which could attract buyers.
Below that, daily support zones are marked on the chart at 3193 and 3167, where the buyer may regain initiative.
🔎 To consider long entries, we need to see:
• Buyer strength, and
• Price returning above 3260.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
MLM - Martin Marietta Material, Inc. (Daily chart, NYSE) - LongMLM - Martin Marietta Material, Inc. (Daily chart, NYSE) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.79
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 490
Entry limit ~ 485 on April 22, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 504 (+3.92%; +19 points)
2. Target limit ~ 524 (+8.04%; +39 points)
Stop order limit ~ 471 (-2.89%; -14 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Carnival Corporation (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long PositionCCL - Carnival Corporation (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.33
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 18.53
Entry limit ~ 18.30 to 18.10 (Avg. -18.20) on April 24, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 19.20 (+5.49%; +1 point)
2. Target limit ~ 19.60 (+7.69%; +1.4 points)
Stop order limit ~ 17.6 (-3.3%; -0.6 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value