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VOO

S&P 500 inverse Head and Shoulders Chart PatternWe are on the daily timeframe and we can see that historically buying the S&P index on RSI lower than 30 is an opportunity. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is decent: 20.34 Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917) Max: 123.73 (May 2009) I have 2 scenarios: 1. Inverse head and shoulders chart pattern with a price target of $4900 by the end of the year. 2. Worst case scenario: bull trap at $4150 an retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $3390. I tend not to believe this scenario because of the too low price per earnings ratio of the S&P. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPXLong
by TopgOptions
6
VOO VANGUARD S&P500 ETF- IS IT GOOD FOR A LONG TERM HOLD? VOO AMEX:VOO is showing promise. Markets have very slowly begun to correct since the Russian Invasion into Ukraine Feb 24th, 2022. Since then, you see some recover on this chart. While things are still uncertain with the overall health of the economy and markets the S&P is gaining some slow momentum. However is VOO a good long term hold ? Well, I'm gonna be opening a position with VOO for my portfolio and increase with dollar cost average new positions to protect me from any volatility. Hope you enjoy this TA and don't forget to like and subscribe and show your support. Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, or post. AMEX:VOO
AMEX:VOOLong
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
How to Invest in the S&P 500 [FOR DUMMIES]In the investment world everybody expects you to know exactly how to buy into an Index Fund, which makes it very hard to find a good detailed non-outdated resource to learn from. While it’s easy to do once your set up, learning how to from nothing was difficult (at least for me). Before you even think about investing into the S&P 500 you need to know WHY. Because if you don't know WHY your investing into this you will panic sell when its the best time to be buying. Now while this part can be answered by a YouTube video I put some of the main reasons below. - The s&p 500 is a diverse Index Fund. (The term index fund means a portfolio set up for you to invest in.) - The s&p 500 holds the top 500 USA companies. (The diversity in big companies makes it a safe investment in the long term.) - The s&p 500, over a 15-year period, beat nearly 90% of actively managed investment funds. (Meaning us noobies can beat the pros!) - The S&P 500 has always recovered, there are lost decades which the market has stayed down for 10 years but in those 10 years you could be buying every single month! (Dollar Cost Averaging) - With the power of compounding your money will grow exponentially. Now what is Dollar Cost Averaging..? Dollar Cost Averaging is buying roughly equal amounts of an asset per month. Doesn't have to be equal but nothing to different, for example you don't want to buy $500 worth's one month and $1000 worth's another (only spend what you know you can be consistent with in the future). Dollar-cost averaging is a great investing strategy because, in the long term, it can protect the investor (you) from market volatility (up and down movement) and reduce the amount you'll spend buying shares. So, over time, you will end up investing in more assets for less. Now what is compounding..? Compounding is re-investing both your capital gains and dividends in order to get a higher payout the next time around again and again and again.. till your rich. Although with compounding comes a catch; if you panic sell before your desired target you've fell into your own trap, because compounding depends on time, and you just smashed the watch. Plus, you should never panic sell when the market crashes; be happy you’re getting everything on a sale! Now we have reviewed why you should invest into the S&P 500, what dollar cost averaging is, what compounding is, and why panic selling is stupid. But how do you buy it?!? I started by trying a brokerage called Vanguard. (a brokerage company is pretty much a middleman that connects buyers and sellers). I wanted to use Vanguard because I knew that I wanted low purchase fees; low purchase fees are good because in the long term it impacts how much you’re actually investing (less fees = more invested long term). Now let me tell you this, vanguard SUCKS, their customer service is terrible, the website is terrible, and they wouldn't even let me open an account for god’s sake because "their website was down". The only thing good about them is their index funds and low fees. What took me a while to learn was that I can purchase the SAME index funds but with a different broker. Now I do recommend you get an account with Charles Schwab they have real branches you can go to and ask questions in (not just a phone number like Vanguard) plus if you do want to call their wait time isn't over an hour like Vanguard, and their website is user friendly. How to make an account with Charles Schwab..? Search up "Charles Schwab", click on their website, Open an Account, and decide what type of brokerage account you want (if your just one person pick individual), then continue with the steps. If you’re below the age of 18 search up "create a custodial account Charles Schwab" and start from there, you will need your parents SSN, and other info. Now that you have a basic account set up your ready to invest; but wait there's more. You currently have a brokerage account which means your eligible to invest however much you want per year, although once you pull the money out you will be taxed on it based off your tax bracket. Along with your brokerage account you should set up a Roth IRA account. A Roth IRA account is a retirement account in short, your allowed to invest up to $6000 per year into it and once your 50 you can pull it out TAX FREE. (if you pull it out any sooner it will act as a brokerage account and tax you, so don't do that). Making a Roth IRA account requires paperwork which you fill in and then go to one of the many "Charles Schwab Branches" to turn in. You can ask customer support to send you the paperwork to your email which you must print out. This account pretty much assures you will be a millionaire at retirement. Ok I have both accounts.. now how to buy? Click on "trade", make sure you’re on the "Stocks & ETFs" Tab, click the "symbol search bar", and type "VOO" (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF). Now decide on how many shares you want (you can check the price here on trading view). It will have an option to turn on auto-reinvest dividends make sure to click that, & make sure you select "Market Order" so you get filled in immediately then click "order". Always invest the maximum of 6K into your Roth IRA and invest as much as you can into your brokerage account. Every 3 months re-invest your capital gains on both accounts. You can see how much your projected to earn in the future. Search up "compounding calculator" put in how much you’re going to be investing per month, how long, and at a 10% average rate of return. I hope this helps, comment and like. :)
AMEX:VOOEducation
by pastworks
3
Conclusions on the current context on MAToday, we will look at Master Card, a key name in the information & technology sector, with a market cap of 375B. As a comparative thing, VISA has a market cap of 484B So, what are the main technical elements we can observe here? 1) The price has been inside a massive daily correction of 275 days, and a few weeks ago, we observed the breakout of it. 2) Now, we can observe a clear "throwback" (name to define the retest movement after a breakout on a bullish trend) that has been developing on the last 15 days One of the fundamental aspects of the way we trade is understanding the current context and comparing it with historical data (that's why I love using the logarithmic chart) As you can see, this is not the first time we have observed a correction of this size, and this has been a common behavior since 2007. What's my conclusion on this? Take all those corrections I have shown you in the Log chart, and check this concept "Drawing the corrections in the same way I'm doing it on the main chart of this post" after we have the breakout and the throwback, on average, trading on a new high its a great level to get exposure to a possible bullish movement. Of course, this is not working in all of them, but I can see an edge that I need to polish a little more before defining my final setup. (For this basic test I conducted, I placed stop losses below the throwback) What if this keeps falling? Then you don't trade What happens if you trade this and it's a stop loss? That's always a chance, to be precise, 50% of the time that happens to me, so make sure you control your risk (The general concept is 1% risk per setup) and only trade if your risk to reward ratio is equal to or higher than 1.8 Thanks for reading; I hope this was useful, and feel free to share your view and chart in the comments! Thanks.
NYSE:MA
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
Trading plan IN case of a short scenarioBefore starting , I want to clarify that this doesn't mean "I'm short" this means: "I don't know what the price may do next; however if the price makes THIS sequence of patterns that I have defined in advance, I may be in front of a good situation to trade." WHY? Because I had tested this pattern in the past, both through real trading and backtests, and overall, I have a statistical advantage. Therefore I should trade it. (That's the logic) Ok, let's start: * The price has broken the ascending trendline on a -12% movement, and now we saw a bounce, and the price is close to reaching the main trendline of the current bearish movement. * This is relevant because the price is close to the main level of the current bearish trend (the descending trendline). IF the price breaks it, we should start thinking about a flat correction with that bottom defined or a new bullish impulse starting. However, IF the price starts falling again, the bearish trend may continue. *IF the bearish trend continues, I'm waiting for a breakout of the current yellow structure. When I mean a breakout, I want to see the price breaking it at least a little bit. *IF that happens, I will be waiting for a movement, as you can see on the template, and I will trade in the same way explained there. With a break-even at 4145.00 (this means that I will move my stop loss to the entry level) These are the 4 possible scenarios: 1) I never trade because the setup is never executed 2) I trade and I'm stopped out (-3% of my capital) 3) I trade and is a break-even ( 0%) 4) I trade and is take profit (+6% of my capital) Thanks for reading!
U
by ThinkingAntsOk
16
New bullish channel for N100 and SP5002 entries (one aggressive and/or one filtered), at the end of the two biggest previous crash... I bought NDX at the closing price (15018), with a stop-loss at -3%, and I advice to put only 20 to 33% of the money to have a risk below 1% (the past weeks were all doom and gloom and we do not know for sure what could happen next...) If you want to download an excel file for what happen to NASDAQ:NDX and AMEX:SPY after one aggressive entry + a second entry on the past 10 years+, download this file: docs.google.com If you like the idea, say it! :)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Nicolas_Pradel
The cycles of the S&P500 | PART 1The cycles of the S&P500 / PART 1 This post introduces a study I'm conducting with the main objective of understanding the cycles and sub-cycles that the S&P500 Index has. Why am I studying the S&P500? Because it is the most relevant index in the world. There is not any other economy in the world that gets close to the returns of the US stock market as a whole, and also, we have a massive amount of data back from more than 100 years ago. So with all that said, let's start. The fundamental view I have regarding the market is that the price has moved between periods of fear and optimism through history, on a cycle that never stops. There is either Fear or Optimism, in other way impulses and corrections. On this chart, we can go through periods of optimism and fear caused by multiple factors, different governments, different geopolitical situations, massive crises, changes in interest rate; you name it, all of them are on this chart, the dot com bubble, the subprime crisis, the missile crisis with Cuba, wars, oil crisis, 1929, etc. The first conclusion I can make at first glance is that despite what was causing it, fear and optimism tend to have characteristics that we may be able to understand. This is a strong base for technical analysis as a discipline. Fear looks the same through several situations, and the same applies to optimism. That's why understanding the price is a powerful element to conclude where we are on the cycle. So what is the price telling us? In this post, we will not only go through the big cycles, but also we want to understand the smaller ones. Now I will put my main conclusions regarding the information I have found. THE BIG CYCLE: -------------------- Impulse 1: 1877 - 1881 = 4 Years / 152% from bottom to top. Correction 1: 1881 - 1897 = 16 Years / -41% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 2: 1897 - 1902 = 5 Years / 144% Fromb bottom to top. Correction 2: 1902 - 1921 = 19 Years / -40% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 3: 1921 - 1929 = 8 Years / 400% from bottom to top. Correction 3: 1929 - 1933 = 4 years / -84% from top to bottom. -------------------- Here we can observe a clear change in behavior regarding impulses. Until 1933 we observe short impulsive periods and long corrective periods. From 1933 until now, this trend reversed, we have long impulsive periods and short corrective periods compared to the past. -------------------- Impulse 4: 1933 - 1969 = 36 years / 2106% from bottom to top. Correction 4: 1969 - 1974 = 5 years / -48% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 5: 1974 - 2000 = 26 years / 2500% from bottom to top. Correction 5: 2000 - 2009 = 9 years / -58% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 6: 2009 - present = 13 years / 600% from bottom to top. In PART 2 of this series of posts , I will go through the sub-cycles we observe from 1933 until now. My main objective is to understand the similarities between these impulsive situations (impulse 4,5 and 6) Here I give you a snapshot of what will be coming: Impulse 4 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 5 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 6 with sub impulses and corrections: Here you can see the Days and % decline of each correction inside the impulses. Thanks for reading! I will be updating this soon.
SP:SPXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
9
What conclusions can we make on MSFT? Today we will take a look at MSFT. The 2nd company in the S&P500 based on market cap. The main bullish structure we have is the ascending channel , which started in March 2020 (bottom of the bearish market, after covid 19). Now the price is above that structure again, and we should assume that the structure is still working as a dynamic support. The main bearish structure is the current corrective pattern (yellow lines). This pattern was formed since the bearish movement that started in November 2021. Ok, nice, but how can I use this analysis? My view based on the rejection in the support zone + the ascending trendline, is that we may observe a bullish movement towards the higher trendline of the current corrective pattern (yellow line). Therefore, if I were someone developing short-term setups, I would think of closing my setups there. Alright, what if the price doesn't move as expected? That's always a possibility, that's why if the price makes a new low on the red horizontal line, that would be a bad sign for the bullish perspective, and I would assume a bearish movement towards the next support zone at 240.00 The main aspect here is not to develop biases in one direction. I have concluded that it doesn't matter how good a situation is; the price can always do the opposite, that's why I always think in bullish and bearish terms, and I develop setups only if the price full-field filters that I defined in advance. Otherwise is just an analysis of possible directions that help me stay up to date on the chart's price action. Thanks for reading; feel free to share your review in the comments .
NASDAQ:MSFT
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
SPX S&P500 Zig-Zag patternAfter the Santa Rally, the S&P 500 index dropped to the May 2021 support: Now i see a Zig-Zag chart pattern than could drop to 4100 area after the rally, once interest rates will go higher, just to end the year bullish, with an upside of 9-10% for 2022. S&P 500 Index has a P/E ratio of 25.96, lower in comparison with last year`s price per earnings on the same date, 40.93, but still higher than the estimates, 19.72. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPXLong
by TopgOptions
FB on a 25% decline + expected movements + Strategy.Today, we will look at FB renamed on meta. Currently, we are on 142 days Draw-Down since the previous ATH and a decline of 25%. From here, we will analyze both bullish and bearish scenarios based on the context we can see now. Bullish Scenario: The price bounces on the lower trendline of the corrective structure and breaks the inner descending trendline; on a lower timeframe, we look for a corrective structure (1H or 4HS chart), and a new local high after that is the confirmation towards the higher trendline of the corrective pattern Bearish Scenario: The price breaks the lower trendline of the current corrective pattern, and we observe a bearish movement towards the major support zone at 250.00. That would mean a draw-down of 35% The key aspect to developing successful setups on any asset is trying to answer these questions: * What is my current context? We can define it using trendlines, supports, and resistances + Draw-down characteristics, both in terms of time and decline * Can I find similar situations in the past? Here, it's important to study assets that have a good amount of historical data. We want to find at least 2 situations similar to the current one *Based on the similar situation I have found, can I see a consistent pattern across them that allows me to trade with a risk to reward ratio equal or higher to 2? If the answer is YES, we have to define the expected pattern and wait until the market makes the movement we are expecting. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:META
by ThinkingAntsOk
10
NFLX current scenario and trading opportunitiesToday, we will take a look at NFLX after a massive gap. Where is the price right now? Is making contact with a weekly trendline that started in 2017; therefore, we have to consider this level a relevant zone to think in potential bouncing or breakout movements. Bullish Scenario: The price is able to bounce on the weekly ascending trendline and makes a breakout of the descending trendline of the current bearish movement. IF that happens, waiting for a correction after the breakout using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So, I have defined what I think the correction should look like. A new local high would be a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the next resistance zone. Bearish Scenario: The price is not able to bounce on the weekly trendline, and we observe a breakout. Waiting for a correction after the breakout of a relevant level using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So I have defined what I think the correction on the bearish movement should look like. A new local low after that would be a confirmation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone. At the moment, my stand on NFLX is waiting and observing possible resolutions before taking action. Thanks for reading.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
TSLA current situation + possible directions.Today, we will look at TSLA and the current situation we are in. Technical context: - The price is currently on an ABC flag pattern (yellow lines) - The price is close to an ascending trendline coming from March 2020 - The price has reached a major support level (900.00) What can we expect from here? Bullish perspective: Inside the flag pattern, we can see a white descending trendline, defining the current bearish movement. IF the price breaks it, and we observe a retest (throwback) of it, a new high after that may be a confirmation of a bullish movement towards the higher trendline of the corrective pattern. Bearish perspective: If the price breaks the ascending trendline and makes a clear retest (pullback) of the ascending trendline, a new low after that may be a confirmation of a bearish movement towards the next support zone at 560.00 The main purpose of this post is to define situations, levels, and structures that may be useful for different types of traders. Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
AMZN inside the range.... again.Today we will take a look at AMZN. Since September 2020, the price has been moving inside a 20% range approx. That means a little bit more than 500 days there. Why is this interesting for me? Because from long periods of consolidations is where we tend to observe the beginning of new trends. I'm not saying that trend is starting right now but let's take a look at this: Here we can see AMZN on the logarithmic chart so we can have a good perspective of all the movements in terms of percentage movement. I have defined ALL the corrections going from 280 days to 500 plus. And as you can see, this situation has already happened in the past, so my main hypothesis would be: "This is AMZN, not PTON, they have a solid moat, and I expect this company to make new bullish movements in the future. Someone could argue that MSFT, a solid company in 2001, spent almost 16 years on a drawdown, and that would be extremely valid. However, that's why I'm looking for a setup here and not to invest. So what's the setup I'm thinking about? I think it is highly possible that the price reaches the major support of the correction one more time. From there, I would like to see the price action to confirm a possible reversal movement or a bearish breakout. However, if I observe reversal signals and then my filters are fulfilled, I think it may be an interesting level to develop setups and try to be part of the next bullish movement from an early stage that provides a great risk to reward ratio (higher than 5) At the moment, I will keep waiting for the price to reach that level before thinking of any new setups here. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
Here lies a 21 months bull trend.Supports broken. Same thing on AMEX:SPY , including his EMA. Even the best indicators got difficult to be read. We clearly are going out of our 15 months channel. Things start to be hazy. I hope you made a lot of money on the past two years because it's becoming trickier. My take home message would be: " There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing. ” (Jesse Lauriston Livermore) I can't say if it is going to be a bear trend or if it will stabilize round theses prices. If you don't want to go fishing, you can go short, but we could see drawback until the past levels (round 16500 for NASDAQ:NDX ). Your past indicators will be less accurate, cause the trend is shifting, and the rules of the game are changing. This is time to test your psychology and your risk management strategy. Time to learn the news rules also! Or time to take a beak ;) If you liked this idea I would be happy to see your comments!! :) If you dislike, I would be even happier because the improvement of our strategies is boosted by opposite smart views and opinions!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nicolas_Pradel
6