#BTC %BTCUSD WEEKLY FAST 5 VORTEX INDICATOR ANALYSIS #BTC Heads up brothers and sisters! Heavy battle zone ahead!
Could go either way! I'm neutral here. The best thing to do is just set alerts and let tradingview.com work for you
Vortexnegative
MARK needs a correctionStock moved up too high too fast and will need to correct for short term gains to be captured. Watch for .382 fib level at $10 and .5 level at $8.5. It'd be interesting if we tested the .5 level since it correlates to the 2014 high. Also, VI- looks to be stretched downwards too much which will probably move up soon to create selling pressure.
At Least A 1% Drop For CiscoOn April 5, 2017, CISCO Systems Inc. ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 236 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 2.851% and a maximum loss of 30.080% over the next 5 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 34.1632. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down and will quickly make it to oversold territory within the next 5 trading days.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 23.4246. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1365. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 17.5800 and D value is 17.2248. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but is due to move up again in the near future.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.1% over the next 5 trading days. The stock will revisit a previous resistance level around 32.60 which could turn into new support. A possible reversal at this point could also occur due to the Stochastic level in the oversold level. However, a quick drop could cause the stock to drop to the Macro support level around 31-31.50 before it reverses up again.
Buy The Coming Dip For AT&TOn March 31, 2017, AT&T ( NYSE:T ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA) while its 100 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA. Both events have never occurred on the same day. Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 MA 330 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 2.239% and maximum loss of 25.170 % over the next 8 trading days. Historically the 100 MA has crossed over the 200 MA 20 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 3.959% and maximum gain of 21.067 % over the next 20 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.0401. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 3.9504. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0906. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.22 and D value is 18.62. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is coming out of an oversold level, meaning the stock should go higher in the next few days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down in the very short term, but up in the long term. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1% over the next 5 trading days. After this drop, the stock could move up toward the resistance level around 42.50. From the close on March 31, the stock could gain 2% within the next four weeks. If bought near the anticipated dip, the gain could be greater than 3.5%.
Decision Time For Kellogg's TechnicalsOn March 31, 2017, the Kellogg Company ( NYSE:K ) 20 day moving average (MA) cross below the 50 day MA. Historically this has occurred 82 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 1.821% and maximum loss of 9.091% over the next 5 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.7957. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slowly moving down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.5126. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0516. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 16.9329 and D value is 17.6418. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward and has been due for a reversal the past five days.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 0.48% over the next 5 trading days. The overall Macro trend is forming a wedge with the apex around mid-May. It is highly likely Kellogg will break out of this wedge before May. Based on the current readings, the break from the wedge could occur in the current downtrend. The determining factor will be when the stock crosses through the support line currently around 72.20. A strong break down with greater than 3 million in volume would lead to a deeper drop for the stock. If the support is not broken on this trip, a break above resistance (top yellow line) with volume could signify a stronger move up.
ZION Banc To DropOn March 31, 2017 the Zion Bancorporation ( NASDAQ:ZION ) crossed below its 100 day for the second time in 9 trading days. Historically this has occurred 169 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 3.454 % and maximum loss of 30.112 % over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 42.6531. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading down, but not in a strong manner.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -14.910. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is 1.42. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 49.9104.8377 and D value is 37.7580. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is trending up with decently large divergence which indicates the potential for continued upward movement.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop 3.79% over the next two weeks. Last time the stock crossed below this MA, it dropped 3.672%. There is a level of support around 40.41 which is where I would expect the stock to drop to.
QCOM Treading Water For NowOn March 31, 2017 the Qualcomm Incorporated ( QCOM ) 100 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 200 day MA. Historically this has occurred 19 times and the stock drops at least 0.235%, with a median loss of 3.023% and maximum loss of 16.621 % over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 50.3856. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.0481. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is neutral and has been floating there for almost two weeks.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1147. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 50.5088 and D value is 39.3695. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been trending up but is currently neutral on direction which will not last long.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be indiscernible. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop 1.5% over the next two weeks. The minimum drop the last five times this MA crossover occurred was around 2%.
VeriFone Slipping DownOn March 30, 2017 VeriFone Systems (PAY) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 97 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median gain of 6.329% and maximum gain of 55.442% over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 49.2149. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral and looking for direction.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -3.5704. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending down.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1591. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward but the positive vortex indicator is climbing and the negative indicator is beginning to drop.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be slightly trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop 3.67% over the next two weeks. The stock recently broke out of its upward trend channel and has entered a narrower down channel. The exact width of the current channel is still to be determined. I tend to look for at least three contact points to establish a trend which has not occurred on the support side of the down channel and today's opening level is only the third point on the resistance line. There is noticeable support around 18.52 which could be met in the near-term.
Slightly Mixed Signals For CITI (C)On March 28, 2017 Citigroup (C) crossed above its 50 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 349 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to rise. It has a median gain of 4.839% and maximum gain of 62.909% over the next 18 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 49.2324. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction but favoring the highside at the moment.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 3.5677. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction. Even though it is still a positive number, it is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1597. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, but the positive VI is also beginning to trend up.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be slightly trending upward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current upward trend channel, the stock could gain at least another 5% over the next three weeks. In its current trend channel, Citi has been at this position (not price) twice since December 2016. The stock rose 6.46% over 18 trading days to the top of the channel and also rose 5.92% over 15 days to the top of the channel. Similar movement is possible which would result in a gain of around 5.79%.
Citigroup is scheduled to have an earnings call within the next 15 trading days which could be the catalyst for this move up. The current consensus Earning Per Share estimate from Earnings Whispers is $1.28, which would be the highest Earning Per Share since October 2015.
Chevron is not in the clear yetOn March 27, 2017 Chevron (CVX) crossed below the 200 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 228 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 3.615% and maximum drop of 54.094% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 33.8291. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -17.8724. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.2387. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward but it could rebound soon.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current overall downtrend channel, the stock could gain at least another 2% over the next three weeks.
PBR looking to drop some moreOn March 24, 2017 the Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) 50 day moving average (MA) crossed below its 150 day. Historically this has occurred 14 times. When this happens, the stock drops a minimum of 3.057%, has a median drop of 6.215% and maximum drop of 30.567% over the next 14 trading days. This last occurred in August 2014. The stock dropped 24.08% over the next 24 trading days and ultimately bottomed out 102 trading days since the crossover with a loss of 44.69%
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.7506. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly heading upward but no distinct direction is known.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -21.4752. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. The last two times the TSI dropped below this level the stock continued to drop.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1227. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. This stock has a history of floating around this level and going higher in all of the last 5 times this crossover has occurred. Overall outlook of this indicator is downward.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 3.80% over the next four weeks.
Still room for Ford to run...downOn March 24, 2017 the Ford Motor Company (F), 50 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 200 day. Historically this has occurred 37 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.197% and maximum drop of 23.281% over the next 23 trading days. Currently the 50 MA and 200 MA have crossed each other 4 times in the last 27 trading days. This tells us there are either big swings or stagnation. Both times the 50 MA crossed over the 200 MA, the highest gain was only 1.269%. The last two times cross ups and cross downs occurred close to each other was before and during the "financial crisis" in 2007 and 2008. On both of these occasions the maximum gain on the cross up was 0.897% over the next 25 trading days, while the stock dropped 20.213% and 8.705% when 50 MA crossed below 200 MA (which is our current situation). Since November 2007, the minimal drop of the stock when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA has been 2.778% (October 2014). The other three minimal results were losses of 4.000% (January 2014), 5.197% (July 2015), and 7.0393% (June 2012).
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 26.6610. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is approaching oversold, but still has room to drop.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -8.4195. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3790. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward. Even though it is at a high level, it can continue to go higher in a negative manner for the stock.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and current downtrend, the stock could drop at least another 4.70% over the next four weeks.
IMPORTANT MA CROSS FOR USO FUNDOn March 24, 2017 the United States Oil Fund USO, 200 daily moving average crossed below the 250 daily moving average. Historically this has occurred 10 times. When this happens, the ETF drops a minimum of 0.151%, has a median drop of 2.214% and maximum drop of 10.623% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred December 8, 2014 and the fund dropped 67.92% over 296 trading days until it hit the bottom.
Current USO chart from TradingView
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 29.0332. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund is nearing oversold territory, however, the fund recently hit the oversold level and is slightly heading upward from a 23.5711 level on March 14, 2017.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -30.2018. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3201. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term fund direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the fund could drop 1.93% before turning upward again.
NEXT 6 TRADING DAYS FOR US STEELOn March 24, 2017 the United States Steel (X), crossed below its 100 day moving average. Historically this has occurred 152 times. When this happens, the stock does not always continue to drop. It has a median drop of 5.249% and maximum drop of 31.518% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred twice in October 2016 and the stock dropped 12% over the following 6 trading.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 37.0645. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is looking for direction and has been heading downward since February 21.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.6478. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.1048. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is trending downward, with the most recent highly negative reading being 1.3075 on August 25, 2016.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop another 4% before turning upward again. A recently held support area exists at 31.33
AMERICAN AIRLINES is groundedHistorically when the Vortex Indicator reaches this level, the stock drops an average of 13% over the next few weeks. There is no clear bottom based on the current trends, but my conservative drop is to at least 42.50. The bottom could very likely be in the low 30s. The key to a drop below 42.50 could be around the earnings release.
Airline CooloffHistorically when the vortex negative hits this level the stock drops at least 1.21% with an average drop around 13.57%. A drop around this average is possible, but DAL has not been trading at large enough daily spreads to make this likely in the next few weeks. A more conservative drop would be near the 47.56 mark which has been a pseudo support/resistance level.
WHERE IS THE NEXT BOTTOM for BX??Historically when this level is reached on the VI, the stock drops at least another 1.19%. The average drop is 10.92%. A drop beyond 10.92% is not out of the question at this point.
The current trendchannel has a bottom more than 12% from the CLOSE on December 28. My conservative move is a drop to 25.95 where the stock hit eight days in a row at the end of November.
Last time the stock was at 27.33, it dropped 11.45% over the following 11 days which also supports a pending significant drop.
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
