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BTC's Logarithmic TL vs. Linear TL: Vote Now!Primary Chart: BTC's Logarithmic Trendline from the All-Time High to the Present Date BTCUSD's current down trendline reflecting the primary trend can be drawn on either a logarithmic or linear chart. Both charts are used in technical analysis. Logarithmic charts tend to be better at conveying accurate proportions of price action on charts covering a lengthy period of time and a broad span of price action. In the case of BTC, why does it matter? Look at the down trendline drawn on a linear chart (Supplementary Chart below) connecting the same all-time high in November 2021 and the March 28-April 5, 2022 peaks. Notice the breakout? Supplementary Chart: BTC's Linear Trendline from the All-Time High to Present Date Other evidence suggests that the downtrend is not over yet and new lows are likely. But the choppy and trap-filled price action since June 2022 has made it difficult for any directional traders long or short. Care to vote in the comments? It's probably true that each vote reflects the conclusions each of us has reached, and our general market expectations. My vote is that the logarithmic chart is the better TL. But my posts have remained fairly bearish this year, so this may reflect my underlying expectation that no new uptrend is being established in crypto assets despite any sharp bear rallies in the near term. Here are some of the technical reasons (in prior posts linked below) for remaining bearish. But for each of these reasons, there may be other keen technical or fundamental arguments being made for why the lows are very near. Bearish arguments in prior posts: Have a great trading week! ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
19
APXT - Cup & Handle - Get on the trainAfter a long bearish move, we see a nice cup & handle formation. Of course to validate the move, we need to see an upward trend of the cup. Be aware that there is a voting end of June for APXT! If merger is not approved, then it might be a bit disaster. Though the cup & handle move will be confirmed way before end of June, if we don`t see harsh moves on NDX, I think next 10 days will be profitable. Entry point 10.50s, I believe we will see 11.50s and may test 12 before merger. Due to spac nature, we won`t see below 10 so Risk downwards is %5, upwards I see %10 - %15 before merger vote. If merger goes ahead, it might do a bigger jump.
ALong
by S5_Trading_Desk
1
Time to declare the greatest MACD OF ALL! HELP ME CHOOSE!OK. LETS TALK ABOUT THIS MACD INDICATOR.... WHICH ONE THOUGH? (moving average convergence and divergence indicator) is a popular indicator. Pretty obvious. It does many things. Plots a histogram that works well for divergences and show changing comparisons. offer crossing signals, and even has its own levels or structures to filter trades on it. It IS a lagging indicator... so it will never be perfect on its own. As I looked for one to adapt to a new strategy I am making... I found that many others MUST agree! Here are 12 different variations of MACD. For the most part, they all have massive views and likes on trading views. And for something as universal and loved as the MACD I have to say... there can be a lot of small and big variances in the signals, how it is used, what it is used for. So Today I want to begin a discussion that I hope all of tradingview members will join me in. In declaring among these or another if you have one.... 5 titles! we will do it by vote and your basic explanation if you have a reason. and you can just pick one of the 5 titles. However, this Posts goal is to determine THESES TITLES 1. Which is the KING of all the MACD here? (please share your reasons and why you think so for any category) 2 . Which is the BEST MACD for small time frames signals and entries for scalping (no greater than 1 hour) 3. Which is the BEST MACD for Swing Trading? 4hour -daily timeframes? 4. Which is the BEST MACD for finding DIVERGENCES? 5. Which MACD has the BEST HISTOGRAM These indicators will be CROWNED (KING D) (SCALP D) (SWING D) (DIV D) (HISTO D) And for your time and participation in this quest. later on down the road when our winners are clear perhaps I can Update some of them to include self plotting divergences and maybe oscillation trendlines so that those winners are better than ever. SO LETS GET RIGHT TO IT! Which MACD? WHY? FOR WHAT? TOSS YOUR HATS AND VOTES OR THOUGHTS INTO COMMENTS AND DISCOVERY SOME OF THESE COOL INDICATORS IF YOU HAVE YET TO. FEEL FREE TO HAVE OPEN DISCUSSION IN THE COMMENTS YOUR CANDIDATES. MACD - X A better macd from @dgtrd (this macd has slightly different calculations and a ton of extra added features which probably all needs to be looked at to be judged MACZ VWAP from @LazyBear (this macd uses zscore and implements vwap usage. has smoothing for choppy factor and perhaps good entries but maybe it varies as well. should take a look) Stick Line macd from @blackcat1402 (newer addition and has interesting behavior that actually gives warnings for when reverses cross or signals may arise) MACDAS from @KivancOzbilgic THOMAS ASPRAY'S MACD by KIVANC (based on MACD HISTOGRAM'S 9 period EMA signal line) 4C 4 color macd from @vkno422 (this is a strict histogram macd that features for 4 different colors and a strategy for how to treat them_ OBV MACD indicator from @RafaelZioni (this is a linear macd that uses its base signal from the OBV for improving entry. considerations can be made for if it keeps with trades or exits them at the best time. it is nice with pivot labels signals also included in the indicator) ADVANCED PPO (price percentage ocsilator) from @TheLark (this is an alternative that is used in a similar fashion to macD. and inverse sort of. It is the Laguerre ppo. while less known some consider it a macd improvement) MACD DEMA from @ToFFF (macd worked with double exponential moving average) DOUBLE MACD buy sell from @Dreadblitz (this double setting combo of macd won a competition and the poster goes into detail on it and shares video link about it) IMPULSE MACD from @LazyBear (this histogram macd doesn't have crosses but a completely different method and way to view and enter price using macd) STC indicator a better macd from @shayankm (this improved entry method turns the macd into a similar inverse fisher looking binary signal view. try it out to see your thoughts) SuperSmoothedMacd for crypto (and stocks) from @KivancOzbilgic (he has made both smoothed adjusted macd for crypto and stocks. (I will post 1other can be found) it is up to user to decide if is indeed better than the other macd choices for crypto and stocks in the end) Customizable macd for any timeframe+ from @ChrisMoody (a must-have inclusion as one of the first big and versatile macd indicators on trading view. with a lot of functionality. It should be discovered if some of the newer things offer different factors or abilities that this one can be customized with)
Editors' picks
CME:BTC1!Education
by Gunslinger2005
60
GBPCAD Short position in the making Context: The GBPCAD dropped more than 10% from May 2019 till August 2019. The pair then recovered almost all its losses, just over 9% from September 2019 to 1st week in December 2019. Price: The price is now at an historic monthly resistance level and is also struggling to totally break free out of the uptrend resistance trend line which started from a high that was formed in July of 2019. Politics: Price behavior imply that the pair is oversold, and a lot of weakness has already set in. Meaning, the professionals are busy building short positions at the historic resistance support line and monthly resistance level. Brexit vote today might just be the tipping point to assist the professionals with their already prepared short positions to come alive. Action to consider: Short positions with the necessary money management rules in place is likely to yield good results.
Short
by FrameTheMarket
New British Prime, Yen vs.GoldBoris Johnson became UK prime minister after the decisive Tory vote. He beat Jeremy Hunt comfortably, winning 92,153 votes to his rival's 46,656. What does this mean for a pound? The entrance to the turbulence zone. The Brexit negotiations, which were essentially frozen for several months, will again enter the active phase. Johnson is known for his attitude to Brexit: exit from the EU. What does this mean for a pound? A strong decline due to no-deal Brexit. What is the likelihood of this scenario? In our opinion, extremely low. The British Parliament has already made it clear that Johnson simply will not gain votes for this. Which leads us to the logical conclusion - would not be accepted a no-deal withdrawal. This means that the current price of a pound is a great opportunity for its cheaper purchases. Is there any chance that the pound will decline more? Definitely yes. Possible decline in pound price is recommended to be used as a possibility to increase the size of the longs in it. Meanwhile, Analysts at Goldman Sachs analyzed options for investing in haven assets and concluded that the Japanese yen is a good option. Motivation - gold is too volatile. This significantly increases the risks of such investment, when the yen looks less risky. Another argument in favour of yen. This year, gold has already increased by 11%, and the Japanese yen - only by 1.6%. That is, from a position of overvalued/undervalued yen looks undervalued against the overvalued gold. Well, the final argument in favour of yen purchases - in case of interventions from the US, the USDJPY price will decline sharply. Recall, we have been recommending selling USDJPY for a long time. As for our other trading recommendations for today, they are unchanged. We will continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, buying the pound against the dollar as well as against the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, and also buying the Japanese yen against the dollar. As for gold, considering how high it climbed, for the time being, we will trade it with no clear preference, buying from oversold zones and selling in overbought zones.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Repositioning FX and Trump's new warYesterday, repositioning was continuing in the foreign exchange market. Traders tried to incorporate the change in the vector of the Fed’s monetary policy into the dollar price. As a result, today the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is 100%. At the same time, 65% of traders are waiting for a decline of 0.25%, and 35% - by 0.5%. Note that a month ago, the probability of a rate cut in July was estimated by markets at 20%. Since vector changing of US monetary policy is a tectonic thing not only for the US economy but also for the world economy and the foreign exchange market as well, it is naive to believe that the markets will fully take this into account in one day. So we continue to recommend looking for points for dollar sales. Moreover, Trump seems to be going to redirect his efforts from escalating the trade war to a currency war. A strong dollar reduces to zero his protectionist efforts. So the attack on the dollar seems quite logical. And even if we do not see active opposition on the currency front, such rumors will have a negative impact on the dollar, because everyone wants to be the first to sell the dollar before it drops. The Bank of England, as well as the Bank of Japan, decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged yesterday. So, the Japanese yen and the pound moved in line with the basic trends of the foreign exchange market, without showing any particular individuality. About the UK. Boris Johnson won the vote for the fourth time and received 157 votes and left only 3 positions on the list of candidates. The end of the week is likely to be hectic. The markets have not taken into account the Fed's decision, and data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US, as well as retail sales in Canada, may well trigger a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our trading preferences for today: we will look for points for selling the US dollar primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro and even the pound, sell oil and the Russian ruble, and also buy gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
So What's This Irish Backstop?The history: There's an important difference between what is known as "Great Britain" and the "United Kingdom". The first is England, Wales, and Scotland, i.e. the whole larger island on the right of the above image, while the latter includes Northern Ireland, which is part of the smaller island on the left, comprising Ireland. This was not always the case. Until 1927, when the Republic of Ireland became an independent state, this separation did not exist and the term "United Kingdom" essentially covered both islands. Without delving into the politics of the North-South divide, let's just put it that, for a variety of reasons, Northern Ireland prefers being part of the UK while the Republic of Ireland wishes to be independent. Things were not always easy between the two, with troubles at the border, and an estimated 3,500 people dying during the 1970-1998 period before the Good Friday agreement was reached. The current state of play: Returning to the economics of Brexit, due to Ireland's independence, and Northern Ireland's choice to remain in the UK, the only place where the UK has a physical border with Ireland, and subsequently the EU, is where the two meet. As long as the UK is (or was) part of the EU, the exchange of goods and services between the two parts of the island is (was) almost restriction-free, as common market rules suggest that products do not need to be inspected for customs and standards. Enter the backstop: If (or once) the UK leaves the EU, the two parts of Ireland would be in a different customs and regulatory regimes, which would mean that products would be checked at the border. The issue is that neither the EU nor the UK would be happy with such a development. From the UK point of view, this falls within its current red lines, i.e. that it seeks to regain border control and leave the customs union. As far as the EU is concerned, this "backstop" could only apply to Northern Ireland, i.e. that there is no point in the UK leaving the EU and still be able to trade freely with it. This is not acceptable for the UK as it would effectively set its customs and regulatory border in the middle of the sea between the two islands, thus limiting the extent of its power. The problem is also more political than it appears: as the EU promoted the no-border issue between the two parts of Ireland, it was much easier to sustain peace in the region, as trade created the conditions for closer ties. If a hard border is re-established, many fear that it could reignite tensions, as the "unionists" would now not be able move freely across the island. The proposed solution: According to the European Commission's November release, the two regions have agreed that the Irish backstop problem can be delayed until December 31, 2020, with no hard border taking place until then. This would effectively mean a continuation of the current common EU-UK customs territory, i.e. that the UK will still align its rules with EU legislation. By July 2020, the UK and the EU should ratify an agreement which would replace the backstop, either in whole or in part, by the December 31 deadline. As of yesterday, the small concessions made by the EU, basically suggest that the UK and the EU have the right to raise a formal dispute against each other, if one party tries to keep the other tied to a no-backstop deal. The future: While these concessions appear to be legally binding, as Theresa May comments, it still remains to be seen whether they will actually make a difference, as the UK Attorney General comments that the UK would have no lawful ways to exit the arrangement; proving that the EU aims to keep the UK tied is quite subjective and thus difficult. On the other hand, this would, in theory, provide an interesting solution for the UK, given that it can maintain both the customs union and also have its own power over the border/legislation/immigration. Still, hard Brexiteers would consider this a defeat since the decision was for a full-on separation from the EU. The only certainty is that there will be a vote today, which would have to see May's revised agreement convincing 116 parliament members to switch sides in order to be accepted. Just to provide a glimpse of how difficult that would be, the estimated odds of the UK leaving the EU without a deal before April 1st have increased since the beginning of the month. If the deal is rejected again, then the next vote, which would take place tomorrow, would vote directly about accepting a no-deal Brexit. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Education
by HotForex
1
Show of hands please...VOTE to close this gap.I have been a Bear slowly losing money over the past few months and i am wondering what the consensus is for whether the SPY will close the gap at 206.12 before 4pm on May 31st? All those who think the gap will close by May 31st say YAY... all those who think SPY is destined higher say NAY. All those who choose not to vote will have their vote proxied by me and a YAY vote will be registered to hopefully force this SPY beast back down a few notches. Thank you for your participation in this highly scientific event.
AMEX:SPY
by MrNeutral
1