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BDL - An update and a VSA Learning ExerciseThis is just a learning exercise. We had anticipated a good move from this stock. However, 1230 was the trigger point for the Up move Now let us do a bar to bar analysis. Refer the box marked “A”. We can see there was a sideways move or a consolidation happening. We can see the prices clustering together and the volume became low. It Indicated accumulation going on. Refer to the bar marked “B”. It is an up bar with increased volume. This bar was an indication that things are about to change. Refer to the Bar marked “C”. The next bar is a wide spread bar going past the trigger point, ending near the top. Also, we can see the volume increased volume indicating a high probable Breakout. And today's bar (marked “D’) opened up above the previous close. The bar did see some selling, but finally it overcame the selling and closed up. Of course, the spread was not, the spread was narrow indicating selling pressure still present. We can see the stock has started its up move and it is all supported by increased volume and the momentum. The price action momentum is also driven by volume and we can see increased relative strength. All that support further up move and the first obstacle we could see would be 1365, where we may see some more consolidation before further up move. This whole exercise is just for learning purpose.
NSE:BDLEducation
by karthikmarar
1
BDL - On the Recovery ModeCurrently we can see many of stocks which had substantially come down from their highs are in the recovery mode. We will be covering some of these in the coming few days. We will start with the first one which is Bharat Dynamics Ltd. The stock saw a bearish down move of more than 15% and ended up below the 200 DMA. Now it looks like it is on the recovery mode. It has crossed above the 200 DMA and the short-term moving averages. Also, it has broken the supply line as well. We can see good volume support coming in. All key parameters like the relative strength, money flow, buying pressure and the volume adjusted momentum all seem to be favouring the up move. The stocks saw a quick up move, then it saw a small consolidation and has started resuming the up move. We can see a break of structure on the daily time frame. Now the stock is making a higher high and higher low structure and is likely to continue the up move. We could see a substantial up move and the stock could test the previous high of 1770. Of course, the overall market situation should also support the move. However, the downside is now capped and we can see more upside only.
NSE:BDLLong
by karthikmarar
1
HUDCO - On the recovery Path ? The next recovery stock which we are going to look at is HUDCO or the Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited. The stock saw a drop or reversal of 15% and was pushed below the 200 DMA and from there it has been recovering. As you can see now, it is above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. It has started making a higher high on the daily. It is also making a higher high on the weekly as well. All the supporting key parameters are all positive, the relative strength, the money flow, buying pressure, all are quite positive and is supporting further up move. We can see good increase in the delivery volumes indicating committed buying. So, the stock could test the previous high of 350 levels. Of course, it is not going to be a quick up move, it is going to be a grinding up move, but definitely it is likely to move up. The risk reward ratio also is looking quite good at this moment. So, this is a stock to be watched.
NSE:HUDCOLong
by karthikmarar
1
BLS INTL SERVICES - Ready for a short term Up MoveThe stock had undergone a big correction even before the recent small cap index correction. The stock fell almost 28% from 475 to 340. It was pushed below the 200 DMA, from where it has been recovering. Even during the recent correction in the small cap index, the stock was in fact showing lot of strength and the relative strength compared to the small cap index is positive now. It is also making higher highs in the daily frame while it is still continuing to make the higher highs and higher lows in the weekly time frame as well. Now, it has also crossed above the short-term moving averages and the previous daily pivot. So, the stock looks likely to test 475 levels. So, I am looking at 15% returns in the short term from the stock. Of course, one has to always keep in mind the overall market weakness.
NSE:BLSLong
by karthikmarar
2
BOMBAY DYEING - Ready to Move to the Next OrbitThe stock after facing price rejection in the range of 224 to 241 was pushed down to the 50 DMA. It moved almost sideways in the last three months. Recently we saw some interest coming back into the stock with the relative strength and the money flow turning positive and the volume was also increasing. The stock remained very strong during the recent weakness we saw in the overall market. Now finally it has crossed above the price rejection zone with good volume support. The delivery volumes saw substantial increase recently. All other parameters like the buying pressure, volume adjusted momentums, absolute momentum everything seem to be favouring further up move. Looks like the stock is ready to move to the top into the next orbit.
NSE:BOMDYEINGLong
by karthikmarar
A quick Analysis of the NIFTY From the week starting 30th sept. we saw a big drop of 2400 points on increased volume. Then the last two week we saw a almost side ways move in a small range of 500 points on much lower volume. Now the Index is at a crucial level, which is a previous support zone. If the index holds at the current levels, we can expect some more consolidation before a recovery. The reduced volume is a definite positive. Also, the current sell wave is much weaker compared to the previous sell wave. The selling pressure is slowly subsiding. Break of 24694 will take it down another 800 points to Test the level 23893 as this is also a weekly lower pivot. This will make the Bears assert their supremacy.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikmarar
TDPOWER SYSTEMS - Likely to resume the Up Trend?The stock was in an uptrend and met with some price rejection in the range of 436 to 451, then it was pushed down to below 50 DMA. Then we saw some strength coming back below the 50 DMA and then today we saw an “Effort to move up” bar. Now the price is at the supply line and once the supply line is broken then we can see the stock testing the previous rejection zone and with some momentum it could take out the Price Rejection Zone and move up. Now the buying pressure and the money flow are positive while the relative strength is on the verge of turning positive. There is some good volume support as well. We also could see some committed buying coming in terms of delivery volumes. So, looks like the momentum is building up and this should see a stock being pushed up to test the rejection zone and further up. In other words the stock look likely to resume the Up Trend.
NSE:TDPOWERSYSLong
by karthikmarar
LAURAS LABS - A Stock to WatchThe stock has been moving up slowly and on the weekly, it has been making higher highs and higher lows. Also, it has been repeatedly bouncing from the 200 DMA. Currently after making a higher high on the weekly, it was pushed down back to the 200 DMA from where it has been bouncing. Now it has moved past the short-term moving averages as well. In the last few sessions, we saw good buying up bars. However, the key parameters like relative strength, money flow and the volume driven momentum are still in the negative territory tending to move to the positive side. Ideally this stock should make another higher high surpassing the earlier higher high which was around 520 levels. Ideally one should wait till it crosses 477 levels and all key parameters turn positive. This will also help to confirm that there is follow up bullishness. Hence this is a stock to watch.
NSE:LAURUSLABSLong
by karthikmarar
MAZAGON DOCKS - ON A RECOVERY PATH ?The stock after a buying climax bar in the month of July was overwhelmed with the supply of the BC bar and was pushed down to below the 50 DMA levels. Then it started accumulating around the 50 DMA and now it's finally getting pushed above the short-term moving averages. And all the key parameters like the relative strength, absolute strength, the money flow, buying pressure are all nicely stacked up favouring further up move. So, this could move up again. Another 1000 points testing 5400 levels. However, it is better to watch the next couple of bars to see if there is follow-up support coming.
NSE:MAZDOCKLong
by karthikmarar
RADICO - In to the next orbit ?The stock has been moving almost sideways with a upward bias for the last eight months. However, recently you can see that in the weekly it has been making a higher, high and higher lows. Now the stock has successfully moved out of this sideways range and also it has crossed above the supply line in the top. The move was with very high volumes. You can see a positive money flow in the weekly. On the daily you can see that the relative strength, absolute strength and the money flow has been positive. So, it looks like that stock is now ready to go into the next orbit. However, the ultra-high volume calls for some caution. So, one has to wait till the stock crosses above 1973 which is a high of the “BC” like bar of the last day. Relative strength turning positive on the weekly will add to the conviction.
NSE:RADICOLong
by karthikmarar
1
UPL - Finally out of the woods?The stock had been in a downtrend for more than 15 months, losing almost 45% in value. In the last three months it was seeing some recovery and finally now it seems to be out of the woods. We can see the stock is making a higher high and higher low on the weekly and we can see a change of character in the weekly as well. Now finally the stock is decisively going above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. The relative strength and the money flow is also positive. Even the buying pressure and the absolute strength are also positive. It is showing a positive momentum as well. We can now confirm that the stock is finally ready to move up further and eventually the stock should be testing 800 levels.
NSE:UPLLong
by karthikmarar
1
SYNGENE - Gearing up for higher MoveThe stock after nearly 10 months of consolidation had come out of the consolidation zone and now it is attempting to take out the previous supply zone as well. As we can see in the weekly chart, the relative strength and the money flow index are positive. In the daily chart as well, you can find the relative strength, the buying pressure are all positive. However, the money flow has not picked up. Given these conditions, once the money flow also picks up, the stock is likely to go up higher after breaking out of the price rejection zone or the supply zone. A positive close above 858 level, will add to the conviction.
NSE:SYNGENELong
by karthikmarar
KNR CONSTRUCTION - Moving to next orbit ?The stock, after a long consolidation of more than 2 years, made an impressive up move in late May, early June period. Then it met with supply around 344-410 levels. Then again it consolidated for almost 2 months taking support in the previous Major PRZ. Now it is trying to move out of this supply zone. All the other parameters like relative strength, money flow, buying pressure, the volumes, all look positive and likely to aid further up move. So, looks like the stock is going to go into the next higher orbit.
NSE:KNRCONLong
by karthikmarar
HBL POWER - High Probability for further up MoveThe stock faced price rejection around 612 on its upward journey and it was pushed down to the 200 DMA levels. And it moved almost sideways for 6 months. Multiple attempts to take out the rejection zone failed and recently it did succeed in moving out of the rejection zone. But it again went back to test the rejection zone. Now again it is moved up above the rejection zone and also the supply shadow of the BC bar of the 15th of July. As you can see the money flow is positive and the relative strength is also positive now. Th e volume has substantially increased and also the delivery volumes have increased in the recent past. All this does indicate that this current breakout of the rejection zone will sustain and it is highly probable that the stock will move up further.
NSE:HBLENGINELong
by karthikmarar
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Volume and Price DynamicsVolume Spread Analysis (VSA): Understanding Market Intentions through Volume and Price Dynamics. █ Simple Explanation: Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a trading technique that identifies key market patterns and trends by analyzing the relationship between volume and price spread, revealing traders' actions and market behavior. Essentials in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Laws. VSA Indicator. Signs of Strength. Signs of Weakness. Note that while the provided examples are excellent for illustrating the points, they are unlikely to play out perfectly in most scenarios. █ Laws Three basic laws forming the foundation of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The Law of Supply and Demand This law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply. The Law of Cause and Effect This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend. The Law of Effort vs Result This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly. █ VSA Indicator This indicator simplifies the identification of Volume and Spread Levels. It provides options to display volume and/or spread bars. An enhanced version of the indicator auto-scales both volume and spread for optimal chart presentation, reloading every time the chart is moved. Levels: Representing the levels of both volume and spread using the terminalogy of low, normal, high, and ultra. Indicator Version 1: Display volume and/or spread bars. When both are displayed, the spread bars are shown in a fixed quantity. Indicator Version 2: Display both volume and spread bars, with the spread bars scaled to the volume bars. █ Signs of Strength Indicates that the market is likely to experience bullish behavior. Down Thrust: Indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, suggesting a potential upward reversal. Selling Climax: Signifies a reversal point as panic selling exhausts and smart money starts accumulating. Bear Effort No Result: A large downward price move without strong selling effort (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the down move may be unsustained. No Effort Bear Result: Strong selling effort (volume) fails to push prices down indicating an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of downward momentum. Inverse Down Thrust: Shows buyers overpowering sellers, likely leading to a bullish market reversal. Failed Selling Climax: Failed selling effort suggests strong buying support and a possible upward trend reversal. Bull Outside Reversal: Indicates strong buying reversing a downtrend, confirmed by higher close. End of Falling Market: Signifies strong buying absorbs panic selling at new lows, likely leading to stabilized price or reversal. Pseudo Down Thrust: Suggests weakening of the downward momentum with a potential upward continuation if broken above high. No Supply: Indicates a lack of selling interest at lower prices, potentially setting up for a price rise. █ Signs of Weakness Indicates that the market is likely to experience bearish behavior. Up Thrust: Indicates sellers overpowering buyers during a price rise, suggesting a potential downward reversal. Buying Climax: Represents peak buying, typically at price highs, with potential for reversal as sellers take control. No Effort Bull Result: A large upward price move without strong buying pressure (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the up move may be unsustained. Bull Effort No Result: Strong buying (volume) fails to drive prices higher indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of upward momentum. Inverse Up Thrust: Increased selling pressure during an uptrend suggests a possible shift to a downtrend. Failed Buying Climax: High buying volume fails to sustain higher prices, indicating a potential reversal to downtrend. Bear Outside Reversal: Strong selling pressure reversing an uptrend, signaling a potential downtrend. End of Rising Market: Indicates buying saturation at market peaks, suggesting a possible reversal as demand exhausts. Pseudo Down Thrust: Indicates weakening upward momentum with potential for downward continuation if broken below low. No Demand: Indicates reduced buying interest at higher prices, possibly leading to a price decline.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TanHef
9
AFFLE - A stock to watchThe stock has been moving almost sideways for more than two years. Early this year it attempted to take out the old price rejection zone of two years at 1336 level, it failed and it was pushed down again below the 200 DMA. From there it started recovering and in the month of May the stock did make an attempt to take out this price rejection zone. It failed and again was pushed down below the 200 DMA. Now again it is making an attempt and it is crossed the rejection zone with a “Buying Climax” like Bar with a with widespread up bar on very high volume. Now the level 1390 is very significant now because once the price goes above this level it would cross the previous resistances from 2022 and also it would go above the supply shadow of the “BC” like bar which happened today. A bullish close above 1390 will take the stock higher. All other parameters like Relative strength, Money Flow, Buying Pressure and Momentum seem to support. The up move could struggle till 1510 level above which the ease of movement would be much better.
NSE:AFFLE
by karthikmarar
1
MAX HEALTHCARE - Preparing for a MOVE - Bar by Bar AnalysisBar by Bar Analysis - Learning VSA Bar A - Here there is a definite attempt to move towards the price rejection zone after a small consolidation. We have a widespread up bar closing at the top. This closing was near the boundary of the rejection zone. Bar B - we can see it was a clear attempt to “Jump across the supply”. But it met with supply and it was pushed back into the price rejection zone. The volume remained high which means there has been good amount of supply here. Bar C - Again there is an attempt to move up on above average volume but lower than the two previous days. Bar D - You can see that there was no effort to push up the price rather it was more of an attempt to absorb whatever supply that could be there. But the supply also did not step in here. Again, the prices pushed back into the price rejection zone. In the next bar you can see that it is almost like a doji with a long wick indicating supply still there but the volume is still below average. It was not real attempt to push the prices up here rather it was the supply being absorbed. Bar E - In the Bar you can see we had a widespread up bar closing up on the top but the volume remained quite low here. The supply did not step in and the buyers were able to push up the price without much resistance. Bar F – The bar opened above the previous high and moved up. But supply overwhelmed and we had clear up thrust bar trapping many Breakout traders. Bar G – The next two bar are down bars on very low volume. The supply was very low. Clearly the smart money is absorbing the selling from the trapped BO traders. The current down move with low volume and Upthrust Trap move would indicate that the Smart Money could soon make a strong attempt to move up the price. The relative Strength has been positive. Money flow has been positive as well. Then we will see the real BO and the price move much higher. A good close 910 will be significant now. A stock to watch
NSE:MAXHEALTHEducation
by karthikmarar
BLS - Gearing up for 15% - 20% move ?In early Feb, the stock faced price rejection around 430 levels and was pushed back to the 200 DMA levels. From there, it has been consolidating for almost three months. Now it is attempting to move up, it is about to cross the current price rejection level at 358. The relative strength is also turning positive and the money also started flowing into the stock. The volumes have been increasing including the delivery volumes indicating committed buyers are stepping in. The momentum has and Buying Pressure have been increasing recently. Once we have a positive close above 358 levels, we could see the stock testing the supply zone around 430 levels. This is a stock to watch.
NSE:BLS
by karthikmarar
CENTUARY PLY - Moving out of the Accumulation Zone. The stock has finally moved out of the consolidation zone. Late last December, the stock met with price rejection around 850 levels and it was pushed down below the 200 DMA levels. Then it started consolidating for almost three months now. The money flow had started increasing for the past month and the relative strength also started showing signs of recovery. Today, the stock moved out of the consolidation zone with a gap-up opening and a widespread up-bar. Of course, it did meet some supply. as we can see, the close was almost in the upper mid of the bar. The stock also moved above the short-term and the long-term moving averages and we can see the convergence of the averages as well. The relative strength also is moving into the positive territory. The volume has also started increasing and we can see increase in delivery volumes as well. The momentum has been positive for almost a month now. Looks like the stock is now poised to test the rejection zone at 850 again. However, we need to see some increase in the relative strength and the momentum as well. There is also a possibility of a retest of the accumulation zone.
NSE:CENTURYPLYLong
by karthikmarar
3