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DXY. Attempt to change the trendHey traders and investors! In a recent analysis of the AUDUSD currency pair (available in related posts), I mentioned a high probability of a reversal forming on the weekly timeframe. This conclusion was also supported by the situation on the daily timeframe. Currently, a similar situation is observed with the US Dollar Index. This review illustrates the relationship between different timeframes, aiding in making better decisions in asset analysis and entry point identification. 1D Timeframe The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a downtrend on the daily timeframe after breaking down from a consolidation range. The boundaries of this range are marked by black lines on the chart. A key level protecting the breakout from the range is 106.957, which marks the beginning of the last seller's impulse. At the start of this impulse, a seller's zone formed (red rectangle on the chart). At the end of the impulse, there was a buyer's bar with increased volume, indicating buyer interest at these price levels. The volume in this bar is concentrated in its upper part (blue line on the chart), suggesting potential seller interest. Key Levels on 1D Timeframe: Key resistance (start of the last seller's impulse): 106.957 50% of the last impulse: 106.435 Last impulse low: 105.913 Trading Recommendations: Selling: Look for selling patterns near resistance levels, especially around 106.957. Buying: Currently, there are no conditions for buying (bearish trend). Buyers need to consolidate above 106.957 to change market dynamics and create opportunities for buying patterns. Now let's analyze a higher timeframe to understand potential downward targets and obstacles. In my opinion, the 11-day timeframe shows the situation best. 11D Timeframe On the 11-day timeframe, the price is moving within a sideways range, with the upper boundary at 106.952 (close to the daily level of 106.957) and the lower boundary at 99.099. The last realized vector in the range is a buyer's impulse 7-8. The key bar of this impulse (highest volume) is located in its middle (marked as KC on the chart). The price broke above the upper boundary of the range during this impulse. However, the seller returned the price into the range, forming a seller's zone above the upper boundary (red rectangle on the chart). This seller's zone corresponds to the daily range. All of this appears as manipulation (false breakout) of the upper boundary of the range. The current seller's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 99.807 (99.099). Obstacles for sellers include the key bar of the buyer's impulse, inside of which is the 50% retracement of the last impulse. I expect the first buyer reaction (long bar on the 11D timeframe) after the price declines to the range of 105.112 - 104.843. Thus, the 11-day timeframe supports the conclusion on the daily timeframe about the advisability of searching for short positions. Similarly, one can analyze a smaller timeframe, for example, the hourly, to look for short entry patterns. Key Levels on 11D Timeframe: Upper boundary of the range: 106.952 50% of the last buyer's impulse: 104.843 First target for selling (PT Short): 99.807 Lower boundary of the range: 99.099 I wish you profitable trades!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
USDJPY. The price is at a key level – shorts might be relevant!Hey traders and investors! An interesting situation in the currency pair. The price has returned below the upper boundary of the range at 149.4. Is all the traded volume above this level fueling further price decline? There is a lot of volume up there... We are watching how the price interacts with 148.644. A breakout of this level by sellers and its defense would be a strong signal to look for selling opportunities. Potential target: 142-139. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Strength on FMC stockAfter publishing the February 5th 2025 earnings report, the FMC Corporation stock gapped down, losing almost 34% of its value. Moreover, nowadays, the company is under serious pressure after being accused of publishing false Sales and Inventory information and downgrading shares from "Buy" to "Neutral" by some analytic companies (e.g. Redburn). Logically, in such circumstances, prices should continue down, but as a matter of fact, it is not the case. Why? First, the February 5th bar is a down bar on a huge (largest in the last 15 years) volume, which, according to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), indicates professional buying. Then, 2 days later, professionals bought again and the market responded by the higher prices. Finally, the gapped-down bar reached the level of the previous support (blue rectangle on the daily and weekly charts), which adds strength. Even though it looks very bullish on the daily chart, the price should be tested before the rally. Therefore, we may expect a shallow correction to $35.13 - $36.34 or, if supply is still there, to $30.80-33.73. If testing is successful and the up move begins, the potential resistance on the way up will be around $48.06-$48.73 and $52.65 - $54.54 areas.
NYSE:FMCLong
by VSA_Home
Weakness on HOOD stockRobinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) shares appear to have sold off after publishing its February 12th earnings report. Following the report's good news, the market gapped up on opening and triggered a buying surge, allowing professionals to sell. The next day, the price recovered on a significantly lower volume, indicating absence of the professional interest on the upside (weakness). Then, on February 18th, another selling took place, which absorbed the remaining demand and pushed the price below the low of the gapped-up bar. This is bearish behaviour. It has to be noted that there were a few more selling activities in December 2024/January 2025 (red rectangles), making the overall situation on the stock even weaker. Despite the serious weakness, we may still see a retracement up into the $62.09 - $65.21 area for either more selling or retesting of demand, after which a move down to the $41.04-$42.66 zone could be expected. In this case, the support might reappear around the $52.96 level and at the $49.56 - $50.19 area.
NASDAQ:HOODShort
by VSA_Home
Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in VSAMastering Institutional Trading: Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) Observation – Understanding Buying Climax, Stop, and Spring in Market Structure A buying climax (BC) occurs when price surges sharply alongside high trading volume, signaling strong buying activity. However, this aggressive move often exhausts demand, leading to a stop, where price movement either pauses or begins to reverse. At this point, the market assesses whether buyers can sustain the uptrend or if selling pressure will take over. In Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), a classic sequence is: 1. Buying Climax (BC): A sharp move up with high volume. 2. Stop Bar: Price consolidation or minor pullback after the climax. 3. Spring Bar: A downward shakeout followed by a reversal, indicating the presence of renewed buying interest. A spring bar after a stop is a bullish signal, suggesting that previous selling pressure has been absorbed and institutions may be accumulating positions. If confirmed by a strong up bar with high volume, this signals a potential breakout, as it demonstrates that buyers are stepping back into the market. The strength of the bar following the spring is crucial. A wide-range bullish candle with rising volume confirms that buying pressure is resuming, increasing the probability of an uptrend continuation. However, weak volume or failure to clear key resistance levels can indicate a fakeout, leading to further downside. 🔥 XAUMO Institutional Analysis – Gold (XAU/USD) Tokyo Session (Feb 18, 2025) Market Context – Tokyo Session vs. Prior Market Structure 📍 Current Price: $2,902.98 📍 Key Institutional Levels from Yesterday: • Resistance Rejection: $2,906.30 (VSA Liquidity High) • Support Zone: $2,891.67 - $2,888.11 (Institutional Demand Area) • XAUMO 2RC/Black Swan Stop Zones: $2,892.92 (Key Bullish Trigger or Stop Hunt Zone) Tokyo Session Key Observations ✅ Buying Climax (BC) → Strong price rally with high volume. ✅ Stop Bar Formation → Market paused following the aggressive buying. ✅ Spring Bar Emergence → Potential bullish reversal structure forming. ✅ VSA Condition: Neutral → The market is in transition; no clear trend yet. ✅ Volume Change: -10.7% (Slight decline, indicating caution among buyers). ✅ Spread Change: +23.27% (Wide price movements suggest liquidity testing by institutions). 📊 XAUMO Institutional Breakdown – Understanding Buying Climax & Spring 1️⃣ Buying Climax (BC) – Institutional Aggression & Liquidity Test 🔹 Yesterday, price reached resistance at $2,906.30 and pulled back. 🔹 A sharp rally (BC) on high volume suggested aggressive buying by institutions. 🔹 Liquidity was likely absorbed in the $2,892.92 - $2,891.67 range before the price pushed back up. 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • A buying climax signals strong demand, but the pause suggests Smart Money is evaluating the next move. • The next confirmation move is crucial—continuation or reversal depends on volume and structure. 2️⃣ Stop Bar – Institutional Liquidity Testing 🔹 After the BC, price stalled and formed a stop bar (consolidation). 🔹 This stop represents either accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling). 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • Break below $2,892.92 → Indicates deeper liquidity absorption; potential downside continuation. • Holding above $2,891.67 → Suggests institutions are accumulating for a bullish breakout. 3️⃣ Spring Bar – The Institutional Shakeout Before a Move? 🔹 Price dipped towards $2,891.67 before rebounding—forming a spring bar. 🔹 This can be a bullish signal, but confirmation is needed. 📌 XAUMO Key Takeaways: • If the next candle is a strong up bar with increasing volume → Confirms bullish continuation. • If the price struggles above $2,905+ or volume remains weak → Expect a fakeout and potential dump. 🚀 XAUMO Institutional Trade Plan – Tokyo Session Execution 📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Spring Confirmation & Volume Increases) 💰 Buy XAU/USD @ $2,903.50 - $2,905 📍 Stop Loss: $2,892.92 (Institutional Stop Zone) 🎯 Target Levels: 1️⃣ $2,910 2️⃣ $2,916 3️⃣ $2,923 ✅ Probability: 75% 📌 Why? • The spring bar bounced from liquidity → Possible upside confirmation. • If the next bar shows strength, buyers are stepping in → Expect breakout above $2,906. 📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Rejection (Failure at $2,905 - $2,906 Again) 💰 Sell XAU/USD @ $2,905 📍 Stop Loss: $2,910 🎯 Target Levels: 1️⃣ $2,895 2️⃣ $2,892 3️⃣ $2,888 ✅ Probability: 70% 📌 Why? • If price rejects resistance at $2,906.30, Smart Money is distributing positions. • Volume drop (-10.7%) suggests buyers aren’t fully committed. • Break below $2,892.92 could trigger more sell pressure towards $2,888. 📢 XAUMO Execution Strategy – Final Institutional Outlook ✅ Next hourly bar confirmation is critical → The spring must be followed by a strong up bar for a bullish breakout. ✅ If price holds $2,892 - $2,891.67, upside potential remains valid. ✅ If price fails at $2,906 and volume weakens, expect another rejection and potential downside move. 🔥 Smart Money moves strategically—wait for confirmation before entering! 🚀 📖 XAUMO Institutional Strategy – Simplified for Beginners 1️⃣ Buying Climax (BC): The price surges fast, attracting late buyers, but Smart Money is already planning their next move. 2️⃣ Stop Bar: The price pauses or reverses. This is where institutions test liquidity to see if there’s enough demand for a move higher. 3️⃣ Spring Bar: A small drop that shakes out weak traders before a possible reversal. If confirmed, it means Smart Money is accumulating. 🔹 Next Step? • If buyers come back strong, price breaks higher (bullish). • If volume remains weak, Smart Money sells into the rally, and price drops again (bearish). 💡 Tip: Don’t rush in! Institutions don’t reveal their moves immediately—wait for confirmation before entering a trade. 🚀
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Strength on MRNADespite negative news, Moderna, Inc. stock is in a good position to rally. Its price has been falling since August 2021, but relatively big buys have begun to emerge since August 2024. It has to be noted that on every bar with buying, volume is increasing, which is usually a sign of accumulation on a down move. If the price breaks the $40.83 level (the high of the bar with the largest volume), then tests it on low volume later, and supply does not re-emerge in the $49.94 - $56.70 zone, this would signal the end of accumulation. In such a case, we could expect the move towards $102.90 - $118.10, and if shares would not be sold off there, it might go even higher to $156.94 - $163.19. At the same time, if accumulation has not been finished yet, we may still see another leg down for more buying.
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by VSA_Home
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XAUMO Live Market Analysis – London to NYC Overlap🔥 XAUMO Institutional Signature – Precision Trading for XAU/USD 🔥 🚀 Smart Money Doesn’t Chase – It Positions. 📌 XAUMO Live Market Analysis – London to NYC Overlap 📍 Current Price: $2,901 📍 Active Sessions: London → Pre-NYC Overlap 📍 Liquidity Map: • Key Resistance: $2,939 - $2,942 (Institutional Sell Zone) • Key Support: $2,878 - $2,850 (Liquidity Pool) • Volume Profile Imbalance Below: $2,850 - $2,820 🔍 XAUMO Institutional Volume Flow – Smart Money’s Next Move ✅ Low institutional participation pre-NYC: Market is setting up a stop hunt. ✅ Volume divergence confirms waiting game before liquidity grab. ✅ Retail is entering early – expect a fake move before real breakout. 📌 What This Means? • If price holds above $2,878, accumulation for bullish continuation is likely. • If price breaks $2,878, expect a liquidity flush toward $2,850 - $2,820. 📊 XAUMO Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks 📌 Liquidity Traps Identified: • Below $2,878 → Stop Hunt Zone (Retail stop-losses stacked). • Above $2,939 → Liquidity Pool for Institutional Selling. 📌 What This Means? 🔹 Above $2,878: Still within Smart Money’s Fair Value Range. 🔹 Below $2,878: Market Makers will target $2,850 liquidity. 📈 XAUMO VWAP, POC & Value Areas – Price Efficiency Levels 📌 Institutional Key Levels: • VWAP Pivot: $2,902 (Fair Value Mean Reversion Level) • POC (Point of Control): $2,906 (High Volume Node – Institutional Bias Confirmation) • Value Area Low (VAL): $2,878 (Liquidity Pivot – Break or Hold Decision Zone) 📌 What This Means? 🔹 Below VWAP ($2,902): Bearish pressure remains dominant. 🔹 VWAP Reclaim: Momentum shift toward $2,939. 📉 XAUMO Fibonacci Confluence – Precision Entry & Reversal Zones 📌 XAUMO Key Fibonacci Levels: • 38.2% Fib: $2,878 (Fair Value Pivot) • 61.8% Fib: $2,850 (Liquidity Grab Zone – Institutional Buy Area) • 78.6% Fib: $2,820 (Extreme Liquidity Sweep Before Reversal) 📌 What This Means? • If price dips to $2,850, expect institutional entry. • If $2,878 holds, bullish continuation likely. 🚀 XAUMO Institutional Trade Plan – Smart Money Execution 📉 Scenario 1: Institutional Short Setup – If $2,878 Breaks 💰 Sell XAU/USD @ $2,875 📍 Stop Loss: $2,910 🎯 Take Profit: $2,850 - $2,820 ✅ Probability: 85% 📌 Why? 🔹 Market Makers will sweep liquidity below $2,878 before reversal. 🔹 Institutional rebalancing to $2,850 - $2,820 expected before reversal. 📈 Scenario 2: Institutional Long Setup – If $2,850 Holds 💰 Buy XAU/USD @ $2,850 📍 Stop Loss: $2,835 🎯 Take Profit: $2,920 - $2,939 ✅ Probability: 80% 📌 Why? 🔹 Liquidity Trap Setup: Market Makers will flush weak hands before rallying. 🔹 61.8% Fibonacci Confluence at $2,850 = Institutional Buy Zone. 📊 Scenario 3: Breakout Confirmation – If Price Moves Above $2,939 💰 Buy XAU/USD @ $2,942 📍 Stop Loss: $2,920 🎯 Take Profit: $2,975 - $3,000 ✅ Probability: 75% 📌 Why? 🔹 If Smart Money confirms breakout, expect strong momentum continuation. 🔹 Watch for fakeout wicks before committing to breakout play. 📢 XAUMO Execution Strategy – What to Do NOW? ✅ Wait for Smart Money to Make Their Move. ✅ Do Not Enter Prematurely – Liquidity Grab Expected. ✅ Monitor NYC Session for Institutional Execution Timing. 📌 If price stays between $2,878 - $2,906: Wait for liquidity confirmation. 📌 If price drops to $2,850: Watch for rejection wicks + institutional buy entry. 📌 If price breaks $2,939, volume must confirm breakout before execution. 🚀 Smart Money Doesn’t Chase – It Positions. 🚀 Retail gets baited. XAUMO waits for confirmation. 🚀 Your edge is patience + disciplined execution.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Potential Buy AreasHey traders and investors! There are no significant changes in the cryptocurrency market. Some altcoins have dropped to interesting levels on the weekly timeframe, making them potential buying opportunities. But when will the growth start? It might take 11 months for the price to reach the target (see related post). I assume that the most capitalized coins have not yet reached their short targets (for example BTC, BNB, SOL). This means that there will probably be further price reductions. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
AUDUSD. Medium-term analysisHey traders and investors! It might be time to look for buying opportunities in the Australian dollar Weekly Timeframe Analysis The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) has been in a sideways range since January 2023 (point 4 was formed). Range Boundaries: Upper Boundary: 0.71578. Lower Boundary: 0.61702 Range Vector Analysis The last realized range vector 6-7 was a seller's vector, which broke through the lower boundary of the range (0.61702). The weekly volumes of this vector are concentrated at the end of October - early November. Above the 0.65124 level, three weekly bars with increased volume are concentrated. A buyer's vector 7-8 is now forming, with a potential target of 0.69426. In the emerging buyer's vector, there are three bars with increased volume, which may indicate buyer interest at these price levels. The first resistance on the buyer's path on the weekly TF is the level of 0.65124, as above it, volumes are concentrated in the seller's vector, and this price level is slightly below the 50% mark of the last seller's vector. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, the price has broken through the upper boundary of the range 0.63308, which formed in January. Range Boundaries: Upper Boundary: 0.63308. Lower Boundary: 0.60878 Range Vector Analysis The last realized vector 9-10 was a buyer's vector. The volumes are concentrated in the upper part of the vector. Note the daily bars on February 7 and 12, when the seller tried to start the implementation of their vector 10-11 with increased volume. The buyer absorbed these attempts and, on decreasing volume, broke through the upper boundary of the range 0.63308. Conclusions Buying (buying patterns) should be considered as long as the price remains above the upper boundary of the range on the daily TF - 0.63308 (priority option). This idea aligns with the implementation of the buyer's vector on the weekly TF. Selling (selling patterns) is risky, as the buyer's vector is active on the weekly TF, and the price has exited the range upwards on the daily TF. Even if the seller returns the price to the range on the daily TF, volumes under the lower boundary of the range may trigger a buyer's reaction. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Weakness on DIS stockThe stock of Walt Disney Company looks interesting from the VSA point of view. The monthly chart shows that the price is now around the top of the horizontal channel formed after a year of down move (blue lines). On one side, there is professional buying in the background, which might resolve this sideways to the upside, but there is much more supply around market peaks from the other side, and that might lead to a down move. Deeper analyses of the price action over the last few months on the daily chart show massive supply. Moreover, the price went below the selling zone (red rectangle) and returned to its bottom on a low decreasing volume, showing an absence of professional interest to participate in an up move. So, to summarise it together: As of now, this stock is weak . With a big probability, the price may fall to the bottom of the monthly sideways channel first and if no buying suddenly appears while the price breaks the $79.24 level, it could reach the $20.0-$30.0 area then. If professionals buy around the channel bottom, the move-up will depend on the size of that buying, but will most probably push the price back to the monthly channel's top.
NYSE:DISShort
by VSA_Home
Strength on AMD stockAfter almost a year of down move, on February 5th 2025 a huge professional buying took place on Advanced Micro Devices Inc. stock (Ticker NASDAQ: AMD). Even though we've seen professional buying on that move before, the volume there was much lower and, as a result, caused small retracements up only. The volume on the February 5th daily bar has much bigger potential. Moreover, a few things are adding to the strength: - Recent buying appeared on the market opening after the earnings report with an immediate price rise. - The price returned into the area of big volume (blue rectangle) on relatively low volume, showing no professional interest in the downside (testing). Therefore, if no supply reappears below or around the $116.37 level, we may see a rally towards $150.37 - $153.03 and even higher to $166.10 - $167.08 zone. In case supply hits the market in the mentioned area, another professional buying could take place around $95.61.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VSA_Home
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles (Bullish & Bearish) If you spot a large candle with high volume, whether bearish or bullish, you can use Fibonacci retracement on the candle itself to determine potential reversal or continuation zones. Here’s how to apply it in both scenarios: 1️⃣ Large Bearish Candle (Bearish Bar) 📉 (Red candle with high volume closing near the low) How to Identify a Bearish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the low (strong selling signal). ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Selling (Smart Money Selling). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the low, it could indicate hidden buying (stopping volume). How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bearish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bearish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the selling pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = Low (Bottom of the bearish bar). • 100% = High (Top of the bearish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Weak retracement, market may continue down. • 50% → Balance point, strong resistance possible. • 61.8% → Potential reversal zone; if price fails to break it, the downtrend may continue. • 78.6% → If price breaks this, trend may change. 3️⃣ If the market continues downward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Downside targets if the bearish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Selling ✅ Sell Entry: If the price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and rejects with weak volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Above 61.8% or the last swing high. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s low. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 2️⃣ Large Bullish Candle (Bullish Bar) 📈 (Green candle with high volume closing near the high) How to Identify a Bullish Candle? ✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the high → Strong buying signal. ✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Buying (Smart Money Buying). ✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the high, it could indicate supply absorption. How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bullish Candle? 1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bullish candle: • High = The top of the candle. • Low = The bottom of the candle. • This represents the range of the buying pressure in the market. 2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low: • 0% = High (Top of the bullish bar). • 100% = Low (Bottom of the bullish bar). • Key levels to watch: • 38.2% → Shallow pullback, market may continue up. • 50% → Balance point, potential bounce area. • 61.8% → Strong support zone; if price holds with weak volume, an uptrend may continue. • 78.6% → If broken, trend may reverse. 3️⃣ If the market continues upward, check Fibonacci extensions: • 127.2% & 161.8% → Upside targets if the bullish trend continues. Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Buying ✅ Buy Entry: If price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and bounces with high volume. ❌ Stop Loss: Below 61.8% or the last swing low. 🎯 Targets: • Break of the large candle’s high. • Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%. 🎯 Quick Summary: When to Enter? 🔴 Sell: • Large red candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with weak volume. • Stop loss above 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions. 🟢 Buy: • Large green candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with strong volume. • Stop loss below 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Bullish behaviour on ADBE stockIt looks like, after half a year of retracement, Adobe Inc. stock (Ticker NASDAQ: ADBE) is now setting up for longs again. On the gap-down daily bar following the December 11th 2024 earnings report, professionals bought. Then, over December and January 2025, more buying can be seen. It has to be noted that recent professional activity took place around the previous level of support ($433.97) which adds to the strength. By January 10th supply has been absorbed, in February the price pushed above the support level and has been tested with relatively low volume creating conditions for the move up. Today's bar is a positive reaction to the recent testing and might be the beginning of the rally towards $566.79 - $576.30 with minor resistances around $482.66 - $489.52 and $541.74 on the way. At the same time, as we've seen a high volume around the support level (January 27th, 28th and 31st bars), there is still the possibility of its re-testing and the beginning of the rally from there.
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by VSA_Home
Gold. Daily and hourly TFHey traders and investors! On the daily timeframe, another buyer's impulse, which has not yet been completed (waiting for a short bar). Three bars with increased volume are at the bottom of the impulse, below 2,806. The last two daily bars have decreasing volume. On the hourly timeframe, the price has formed a sideways range. The current seller's vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 2,859.975. Buying Strategies Buying (long) setups should be considered from the lower levels of the range at 2,859.975 – 2,858. On the daily timeframe, given the current situation, buying opportunities can be looked for below the close of the last bar with increased volume – 2,814.710 Selling Strategies Looking for selling (short) setups is risky, but if desired, it is reasonable to do so from the upper levels of the hourly range at 2,873.340 - 2,882. Alternatively, below 2,858, when the seller breaks out of the range downward and confirms this breakout. I wish you profitable trades!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Daily and Hourly TFHey traders and investors! On the daily timeframe, the price is in the middle of the range. The current seller's vector is 13-14, with a potential target of 91,231. On the hourly timeframe, the price is below the lower boundary of the range. The current buyer's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 100,777. Selling Strategies Selling (short) setups should be considered from the upper levels of the range: - For the hourly timeframe: 100,777 and 102,500. Alternatively, below 96,150, when the seller breaks out of the range downward and confirms this breakout. - For the daily timeframe: 102,500 – 109,588. Buying Strategies Buying (long) setups should be considered from the lower levels of the range: - On the hourly timeframe, the price is currently in this zone. However, the lower boundary of the hourly range has been traded through. Looking for buy setups below 99,149 is risky, while above 99,149, the risk-reward ratio may not be favorable until the potential target is reached (100,777). - On the daily timeframe, key levels to consider for buying are 91,231 – 89,256. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
NVS 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume 2Sp- Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R within 1H range take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + JOC level + support level - above 1/2 of entire 1D wave at the support level of 1M" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + support level + JOC level - unvolumed manipulation" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse - resistance level + less than a month left and it looks to break + long volume distribution" NVS @NYSE Bought NVS Market, Day Filled 8:27 AM 104.89325 Profit Taker Sell NVS Limit 105.87, GTC Submitted 8:27 AM
NYSE:NVS
by MishaSuvorov
EURUSD. Daily Timeframe AnalysisHey traders and investors! The price has formed a sideways range. Sideways Range Boundaries: • Upper boundary: 1.06300 USD. • Lower boundary: 1.03319 USD. Movement Vectors in the Range The beginning of the last seller's sub-impulse (within the seller's impulse 4-5 in the range) is marked at 1.04584, which is near the 50% level (1.04271) of the last seller's impulse (vector 4-5 in the range). Buyers showed strength near the lower boundary, forming a buyer's zone (green rectangle on the chart), which may serve as support for further upward movement. The current buyer's vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 1.06098. Volume Analysis An increase in volumes is visible on the chart on January 24 and 27, 2025. The high volume at this level indicates active participation from both buyers and sellers. Special attention should be paid to the concentration of volumes on January 27 and 24 in the upper parts of the bars (blue line on the chart), which are above 1.04584. Currently, the seller has pushed the price back below 1.04584 (the beginning of the last seller's sub-impulse). This means that the volumes of the previous two days remain above. It looks like a level manipulation (false breakout). Key Trading Levels Buying Opportunities: • Look for buying patterns around 1.03319 (lower boundary). • A breakout above 1.05333 could open the way to 1.06098. Selling Opportunities: • Sellers may defend the 1.04584 level - look for selling patterns near this level. Potential targets - 1.03417, 1.03120 (monitor the reaction at 1.04116). The hourly timeframe can be used to identify entry points. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Analysis of Key LevelsHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range, with 11 vectors already realized. Since the last review, a new buyer’s vector 11-12 has been added, with a target of 99,550 USDT. Sideways Range Boundaries: • Upper boundary: 108,353 USDT. • Lower boundary: 89,256.69 USDT. Movement Vectors in the Range The last realized vector was 11-12, which ended in the buyer’s zone (marked with a green rectangle on the chart) below the test level of this zone (99,550 USDT). The buyer resumed activity from the buyer’s zone, as evidenced by the large selling tail of the daily bar on January 27. The current buyer’s vector is 12-13, with a potential target of 108,353 USDT. Based on current data, achieving this target seems likely, as the buyer is actively defending key levels and the movement is supported by volumes. Volumes The chart highlights bars with increased volume, signaling significant buying or selling activity. Of particular note is the bar from January 27, 2025, where the price reached the target of vector 11-12 (99,550 USDT) and then moved upward. The bar’s volume (blue bar on the chart) is concentrated near the close in the range of 101,000-102,000 USDT. On one hand, this is a seller’s bar with volume at the upper part of the bar. On the other hand, there is a large selling tail and the current buyer’s vector 12-13. To clarify the situation, it is recommended to switch to the hourly timeframe to identify levels for entry points. Hourly Timeframe Analysis The price has formed a sideways range, with 14 vectors already realized (an additional 5 since the last review). Sideways Range Boundaries: • Upper boundary: 109,588 USDT. • Lower boundary: 97,777.77 USDT (the market maker seems to favor sevens). Movement Vectors in the Range The last realized vector was buyer’s vector 14-15 (target was 102,317 USDT). The current seller’s vector is 15-16, with a potential target of 98,864 USDT. On the daily timeframe, the buyer’s vector is active, while the seller weakly defends the 102,317 USDT level: two bars with increased volume failed to yield results. This indicates seller’s weakness (although seller strength might appear later). Searching for Entry Points for Buying and Selling Buying (patterns for buying) can be sought when the buyer defends the following levels: 100,000, 98,864, 97,777, or above 102,892 USDT. Potential targets: • On the hourly timeframe — point 11 of the range (107,240 USDT), then 109,588 USDT. • On the daily timeframe — 108,353 USDT. Selling (patterns for selling) can be considered upon the seller showing strength: a seller’s bar with a good spread and volume, or the formation of a seller’s zone. Upon the price returning to the seller’s bar or zone, patterns for selling can be sought. The potential target is 98,864 USDT.
by AlexeyWolf
VSA Rays: Mastering the Art of Predicting Future Price MovementsThe cryptocurrency PUFFER/USDT.P has captured our attention today as it flirts with a critical moment of decision. Currently trading at $0.5659, the price reflects a staggering 44% deviation below its all-time high of $1.0122, achieved just 50 days ago. Yet, it has also soared over 138% from its absolute low, a testament to its volatility and potential for rapid moves​. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 50, and buy volume patterns increasingly dominant over the past 24 hours, the market appears to be in a state of consolidation​​. The Moving Average 50 (MA50) at $0.5752 suggests minor overhead resistance, while psychological resistance levels are forming near $0.5961, possibly triggering the next rally​. Fundamentally, macroeconomic whispers of liquidity adjustments and renewed interest in altcoin markets are setting the stage for a bold shift. The big question remains: Is this your chance to ride the wave up, or will the bears claw back dominance at this critical threshold? For both traders and investors, the stakes couldn't be higher. The coming days will determine whether PUFFER/USDT.P’s momentum builds into a breakout or fades into retracement. Are you ready for the ride? The clock is ticking, and this could be your chance to capitalize on a decisive market move. Stay tuned for our detailed analysis on key levels and patterns shaping this opportunity. PUFFER/USDT.P Roadmap: Decoding the Patterns for Success Understanding the flow of market movements is crucial for both traders and investors. Here’s a detailed roadmap of the key patterns recently observed in PUFFER/USDT.P, using historical data to confirm their validity and align with anticipated price directions. January 25, 2025 – VSA Manipulation Buy Pattern 4th Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Low of the last 3 bars ($0.5514) Outcome: The market closed slightly higher at $0.5564, hinting at a bullish impulse. This aligns with the main direction, as the next pattern confirmed upward movement to a high of $0.5777. This is a textbook pattern execution, showing strong buyer momentum. January 26, 2025 – Increased Buy Volumes Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Open price ($0.5628) Outcome: This pattern delivered as expected, with a close above the open at $0.5768. The immediate next high of $0.5777 supports this buy direction, emphasizing consistent buyer dominance. January 25, 2025 – Increased Sell Volumes (Skipped) Direction: Sell Trigger Point: High of the last 3 bars ($0.6345) Outcome: Contrary to the sell direction, subsequent price action leaned bullish. This pattern did not trigger effectively, and its impact is minimal in the broader roadmap. January 24, 2025 – VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Not applicable Outcome: The market moved consistently higher, with the high extending to $0.6112 shortly after. This pattern highlighted the continuation of a buying trend, supported by increasing volume and a steady climb. January 22, 2025 – Sell Volumes Take Over (Skipped) Direction: Sell Trigger Point: Low of the last 3 bars ($0.5873) Outcome: While sell volumes showed a momentary dip to $0.5873, the market rebounded quickly, invalidating the sell direction and confirming a persistent bullish bias. January 23, 2025 – Buy Volumes Take Over Direction: Buy Trigger Point: Open price ($0.6024) Outcome: The price continued upward to $0.6094, marking this as a clean execution of a bullish pattern. Traders who spotted this transition capitalized on the trend. Key Takeaways from the Roadmap Bullish patterns like VSA Buy Pattern 4th and Buy Volumes Take Over consistently outperformed, confirming strong market optimism. Sell patterns were largely invalidated, indicating underlying buyer control over the asset during the observed period. Trigger points proved reliable markers for entry, with clear follow-through seen in consecutive highs. This roadmap demonstrates how understanding pattern execution and aligning with validated directions can significantly enhance trading success. Watch for future VSA Buy Patterns—they've consistently marked golden opportunities for upward momentum. Stay sharp, and ride the trend! Technical & Price Action Analysis: Key Levels to Watch When it comes to trading, knowing your levels is half the battle. Below are the critical support and resistance zones for PUFFER/USDT.P, straight from the charts. If these levels fail to hold, you can expect them to flip and act as resistance in the future. Mark these on your radar—miss them at your own risk! Support Levels 0.5201 – Your first line of defense; a break below could open the door to further downside. 0.2934 – A deeper support level that traders should keep an eye on if the price dives lower. Resistance Levels 0.5961 – The immediate overhead barrier. Bulls need to clear this for any meaningful push higher. 0.6934 – A higher resistance zone that could attract sell-side interest. 0.7277 – A strong ceiling to watch, marking the upper range of current price action. 0.8881 – A psychological level that’s likely to be a battleground for bulls and bears alike. Powerful Resistance Levels 1.0122 – The absolute high. Breaking and holding above this level would signal a major trend reversal. What Happens If These Levels Fail? If support levels crumble under selling pressure, they’ll likely become resistance as sellers defend their positions. The same goes for resistance—if bulls break through, it flips to support, creating a solid base for further upward momentum. Keep these levels in mind to navigate the chop and make informed decisions in this dynamic market. This is your roadmap to the action—stay sharp, and let the levels guide your trades! Trading Strategies Using Rays: From Concept to Actionable Scenarios The Rays from the Beginning of Movement concept provides a systematic approach to predicting price reactions based on Fibonacci-based geometrical rays. These rays, combined with dynamic factors like moving averages, offer traders a reliable method to identify high-probability trade setups. Below, we outline the framework and suggest two scenarios—optimistic and pessimistic—to align with potential market conditions. Concept of Rays in Action Fibonacci Rays and Their Purpose: Each ray defines key dynamic levels derived from the beginning of the price movement. They help map the probable path of the price and identify zones for potential reversals or continuations. Dynamic Factors: Moving averages (e.g., MA50, MA100, MA200) act as secondary confirmation tools. When price interacts with a ray and aligns with a moving average, the probability of a valid move increases. Actionable Levels: Traders focus on interactions between rays, moving averages, and VSA patterns on the chart. After a confirmed interaction, the price typically moves from one ray to the next, presenting opportunities for profitable trades. Optimistic Scenario: A Breakout with Momentum Initial Interaction Zone: $0.5752 (MA50) First Target: $0.5862 (MA100, next ray level) Second Target: $0.6272 (MA200, upper ray boundary) Third Target: $0.6468 (Extended ray, potential continuation) Commentary: In this scenario, the price demonstrates bullish momentum after interacting with the MA50 and first Fibonacci ray. Buyers take control, driving the price to subsequent ray levels. Pessimistic Scenario: A Controlled Decline Initial Interaction Zone: $0.5752 (MA50) First Target: $0.5201 (Key support level) Second Target: $0.2934 (Lower ray boundary) Third Target: $0.2375 (Absolute low) Commentary: Here, the price fails to sustain above the MA50, leading to a downward interaction with Fibonacci rays. Sellers dominate, targeting progressively lower levels. Potential Trade Setups Based on Ray Interactions Bullish Entry: After price confirms an upward bounce from $0.5752, enter long, aiming for $0.5862 (first target). Place a stop-loss below $0.5730 to manage risk. Bearish Entry: If the price rejects $0.5752, consider a short position targeting $0.5201 with a stop-loss above $0.5770. Breakout Trade: Watch for a breakout above $0.5862 with strong volume. Enter long with targets at $0.6272 and $0.6468. Range Trade: If the price oscillates between $0.5752 and $0.5862, use the range to buy near support and sell near resistance. Final Notes The combination of Fibonacci rays and moving averages creates a robust system for identifying dynamic trade zones. Remember, trades should only be entered after clear interaction and validation from the rays and dynamic factors. Whether the market trends bullish or bearish, these scenarios provide a clear framework for traders to follow and adapt as conditions unfold. Your Turn to Join the Conversation Hey traders and investors! Let’s make this space interactive. If you’ve got questions about the analysis, specific levels, or just want to dive deeper into the strategy—drop them right in the comments. I’ll be happy to answer and discuss with you. If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to hit Boost and save the idea to revisit later. Watching how price reacts to these levels is the best way to learn and grow as a trader. Remember, understanding entry and exit points is key to consistent success. For those interested, my proprietary indicator automatically maps out all the rays and levels you see here. It’s available privately, so if you’re curious about using it, feel free to send me a message directly. Have a specific asset in mind? I’m open to providing analysis! Some ideas I’ll post here for everyone to benefit from, and for others, we can discuss more personalized setups. Whether it’s public or private, we can figure out the best approach together. Lastly, don’t forget to follow me here on TradingView. This is where I post all my insights and updates, and I’d love to have you as part of my trading community. Let’s keep learning and growing together—one chart at a time. 🚀
Education
by brandlabelden
FLOCKUSDT: Can Bulls Hold After a 60% Slide?Introduction : The cryptocurrency market never rests, and today, all eyes are on FLOCKUSDT, currently trading at $0.1439, down a sharp 60.88% from its all-time high of $0.3679 set just 16 days ago​. After bouncing 29.17% from its absolute low of $0.1114 just five days ago, the question looms: is the asset primed for recovery, or are sellers merely taking a breather? Technical indicators present a mixed narrative. The RSI14 sits at an oversold 29.81, signaling potential upward momentum, but MFI60 at 44.23 suggests a lack of significant inflows​. Meanwhile, the MA50 has dipped below the price, currently at $0.1611, posing a looming resistance zone​. Adding to the intrigue, recent candlestick patterns, such as "Sell Volumes Take Over," indicate heightened sell pressure, yet directional cues hint at bullish reversals​. With resistance looming at $0.1757 and strong support at $0.1355, the stage is set for a decisive move. Could this be a pivotal moment for traders to capitalize on a reversal? Or does the market have further downside risk before a meaningful bounce? Either way, this could be the key moment to act, as the opportunity may not wait for long. Stay tuned for the in-depth breakdown. Roadmap of Recent Patterns: FLOCKUSDT Action Sequence Sell Volumes Take Over (2025-01-26 11:00 UTC) The session started with a "Sell Volumes Take Over" pattern, hinting at a Buy direction. This was validated as the price ticked up slightly, opening at $0.1459 and closing at $0.1461, above the low of $0.1432. While movement was minimal, the bulls attempted to reclaim momentum. Increased Sell Volumes (2025-01-26 10:00 UTC) A bearish setup followed, forecasting a Sell. Price action aligned with this, as it opened at $0.1460, dipped to $0.1453, and closed marginally lower at $0.1459. Bears gained slight traction, confirming the pattern’s effectiveness. Increased Sell Volumes (2025-01-26 04:00 UTC) The selling spree continued, with another Sell setup. However, the low remained consistent at $0.1481, suggesting consolidation. The lack of strong directional movement hinted at the market waiting for a more decisive trigger. VSA Buy Pattern Extra 1st (2025-01-25 12:00 UTC) This pattern marked a pivotal point, suggesting a Buy movement. The price closed at $0.164, slightly higher than its open of $0.1651, signaling accumulation and anticipation of a bullish breakout. VSA Manipulation Buy Pattern 3rd (2025-01-23 09:00 UTC) This powerful Buy pattern forecasted a strong upside. The price soared from $0.2048 to $0.2251 within hours, breaking resistance and confirming the main direction. Bulls dominated, as the predicted movement unfolded with textbook precision. Sell Volumes Take Over (2025-01-23 05:00 UTC) Despite a Buy setup forecast, the price trajectory shifted to a retracement phase. Closing at $0.2251, this marked the beginning of consolidation, showing the pattern’s partial alignment. Increased Sell Volumes (2025-01-23 04:00 UTC) This Sell pattern demonstrated textbook accuracy as the price opened at $0.2246 and fell to $0.2135, confirming bearish pressure. Increased Buy Volumes (2025-01-23 03:00 UTC) A Buy direction emerged, and the price shot up from $0.2137 to $0.2246. This movement strongly aligned with the predicted direction, showcasing an excellent opportunity for short-term bulls. Technical & Price Action Analysis Support Levels: 0.1355 – A key area for buyers to step in. If it doesn’t hold, expect it to flip into resistance. 0.1257 – The last line of defense before sellers take full control. Resistance Levels: 0.1757 – A significant ceiling for bulls to conquer; failure here means this level becomes a hard barrier. 0.2525 – Watch closely; breaking this could ignite strong momentum. 0.2829 – A formidable wall for buyers; bears likely waiting to defend. 0.3042 – If bulls reach here, it’s a breakout or bust situation. Powerful Support Levels: Currently, no additional zones stand out, but stay alert for any emerging price action signals. Powerful Resistance Levels: None observed at the moment, leaving room for price discovery if major resistance levels are breached. Note: If these levels fail to hold or break, expect them to act as reversal zones, flipping from support to resistance or vice versa. Use these levels to plan entries and exits, and don’t forget to manage your risk – the market loves to test traders' resolve! Concept of Rays: Precision in Probabilities Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios Optimistic Scenario: If price interacts with the 0.1355 support level, marked by a descending Fibonacci ray, and shows a bullish confirmation, the movement is expected to test the next ray intersecting at the 0.1757 resistance level. This would serve as the first target, with subsequent moves aiming for 0.2525 and 0.2829, correlating with additional ray intersections. Pessimistic Scenario: If price fails to hold at 0.1355 and breaches downward, interaction with the next Fibonacci ray near 0.1257 may indicate continuation of the bearish momentum. In this case, price could trend lower, with further ray intersections marking potential interaction zones for reversals or corrections. How Rays Work in Practice Fibonacci Rays are dynamic tools that adjust based on emerging patterns, enabling real-time tracking of price movements. When combined with Moving Averages (MA50: 0.1611, MA100: 0.1765), these rays become more predictive by indicating areas of confluence where price momentum is likely to shift. The key principle is to monitor price interaction with the rays. Once price touches a ray and confirms direction with a dynamic factor (such as candlestick patterns or volume spikes), traders can position for movement toward the next ray or level. Each ray-bound move represents a minimum target, with further levels extending the trade’s profit potential. Suggested Trades Long Trade from 0.1355 to 0.1757: Look for bullish interaction at 0.1355 and confirmation through volume analysis (VSA). Target the ray at 0.1757 as the first milestone. Short Trade from 0.1757 to 0.1355: If price rejects 0.1757 and bearish patterns emerge, this could signal a reversal back to 0.1355. Long Trade from 0.1757 to 0.2525: A breakout above 0.1757, confirmed by interaction with ascending rays and a crossover of MA50 and MA100, targets 0.2525 as the next ray-defined resistance. Short Trade from 0.2525 to 0.1757:** Failure to sustain above 0.2525 could lead to a retracement back to 0.1757, presenting a swing opportunity. Dynamic Levels in Context These levels are projected on the chart, visible alongside the VSA Rays. The interplay between price, rays, and moving averages provides a high-confidence framework for trading decisions. Remember, position entry is most effective post-interaction with rays and the onset of movement. Trades are managed step-by-step from one ray to the next, ensuring clear targets and minimal risk. Flexibility in scenarios empowers traders to adapt to market dynamics while aligning with the structured insights provided by Fibonacci Rays. Trading is all about understanding key levels and making informed decisions, and I’m here to help you navigate that. If you have questions or need clarification, drop them right in the comments—I’ll be glad to respond! If this idea resonates with you, don’t forget to Boost it and save it for later. Tracking how price reacts to the levels I’ve outlined is one of the best ways to learn and improve your trading strategy. The rays and levels you see in this analysis are automatically plotted using my custom indicator. It’s available privately, so if you’re interested in using it, feel free to reach out via direct messages—I’ll be happy to share details. Have another asset in mind? Let me know in the comments! I can create a detailed analysis, either publicly for everyone’s benefit or privately, if you’d prefer to keep your strategy confidential. The rays work on all assets, and I can tailor them specifically to your needs. Finally, if you find value in my ideas and want to stay updated, make sure to follow me here on TradingView. This is where I publish all my insights, and I’d love for you to be part of the journey. Trade smart, stay informed, and let’s grow together! 😊
Short
by brandlabelden
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