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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Comprehensive AnalysisOverview Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been a focal point of market activity, showcasing significant volatility and creating substantial opportunities for both short-term traders and long-term investors. The current price is $411.58, with the stock trading below its absolute high of $488.54 recorded on December 18, 2024. This represents a deviation of approximately -15.75% from the peak. This technical and fundamental analysis will leverage advanced tools, including VSA patterns, price action analysis, and volume dynamics, to project future movements. Technical Analysis Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: $383.30, $376.04, $358.62. Resistance Levels: $420.00, $430.50, $448.00. Moving Averages MA50: $394.08 MA100: $397.55 MA200: $413.63 The price currently trades above the MA50 but below the MA200, suggesting consolidation within a broader bullish trend. The RSI (14) at 70.76 signals overbought conditions on shorter intervals, necessitating caution for immediate buy entrie. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and Patterns Recent trading data reveals patterns indicative of institutional activity: Buy Volumes (Jan 13): Closing at $391.96 with increased buying pressure, marking a 14.61% movement from its three-bar low of $380.07. VSA Manipulation Patterns: A confirmed "Buy Pattern 3" formed on January 13, showcasing a potential bullish continuation with a high of $396.95. Predicted Scenarios Short-Term (1 Week): Tesla appears poised to test its $420 resistance level based on bullish volume patterns. A break above $420 with significant volume could target $430 as the next level of interest. However, failure to breach $420 may result in a retracement to $400-$405 support. Medium-Term (1 Month): Given the observed bullish manipulation patterns and technical support at $383, Tesla may aim for a recovery toward its MA200 at $413. If sustained buying interest persists, the stock might challenge its December highs. Long-Term (3-6 Months): Tesla’s trajectory could see it revisiting the $450-$470 range, contingent upon macroeconomic conditions and its quarterly earnings surpassing market expectations. The psychological level of $500 remains a potential long-term target if the broader market maintains bullish momentum. Stop-Loss and Target Levels Proposed Trade Setup: Entry: $412.00 Stop-Loss: $400.00 Target 1: $420.00 Target 2: $435.00 Target 3: $450.00 Fundamental Analysis Tesla remains a key player in the EV market, with growing adoption of its vehicles worldwide. Its latest production numbers exceeded market expectations, signaling robust demand despite economic headwinds. Recent initiatives in energy storage and AI-based technology further diversify its revenue streams, underpinning its premium valuation. Conclusion Tesla's technical and fundamental indicators suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. While short-term retracements are possible, the stock's overall trend aligns with upward momentum, supported by strong institutional interest and robust fundamentals. For further inquiries or personalized trading setups, feel free to contact me directly. All relevant indicators and tools used for this analysis can be found in the profile header. Concept of Rays Explanation of the "Rays from the Beginning of Movement" Concept Core Idea My proprietary analysis method is based on using rays constructed on Fibonacci mathematical and geometric principles. These rays create a system of dynamic levels that help predict precise asset movements and identify key zones where price interactions occur. Price interaction with these rays signals probable scenarios: either a reversal or a continuation of movement, but only after interaction and the appearance of dynamic factors and patterns. Why Predicting Specific Levels is Not Possible Financial markets are nonlinear systems, where price movement is determined by numerous variables, including market volumes, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and participant psychology. Instead of attempting to predict specific levels, I propose analyzing probabilities of price reaction at pre-calculated key zones. Price interaction with rays provides additional insights into the direction and strength of movement. How Rays Work Fibonacci Rays: Each ray corresponds to a specific angle of inclination, which is mathematically significant and correlates with natural proportions and the start of movement. Primary Advantage: Rays are constructed from the beginning of a movement pattern, rather than traditional extremum points commonly used in classical technical analysis. This allows for the rapid and accurate accounting of new trend or corrective movement phases. Adaptability: When a new pattern emerges, rays are automatically adjusted to show the potential movement range. Price may exit this range and enter another, interacting similarly with a different ray. Rays are Ascending and Descending: They define the boundary of the movement channel. How to Use Rays Historical Analysis: On historical charts, observe how price interacted with rays. This helps evaluate how often levels defined by rays led to significant movement changes. Real-Time Monitoring: By observing current price behavior relative to rays, you can highlight key points where scenarios such as reversal or continuation are likely. Confirmation Tool: Rays do not replace other analysis methods but enhance them, adding a structured perspective on market behavior. Scientific Basis Fibonacci proportions, underlying the construction of rays, are observed in nature, physics, and financial markets, making them a universal tool. Geometric angles and trends are based on mathematical analysis of historical price behavior. The principle of minimizing subjectivity in analysis is also applied: rays are constructed strictly algorithmically, excluding human bias. Why It Matters My name is Denis Mikheev, and my method does not offer magical solutions or "predictions" of exact price movements. Instead, it identifies key interaction zones where market participants, as well as automated market-maker algorithms, are likely to make decisions. This allows you to act based on probabilities, not guesses. Example Visualization On a chart with rays already constructed, you can see: How price reacts to intersections or proximity to rays. Where current interaction points may signal potential changes in movement dynamics. Trade Safe! Denis MikheevTheWaved™ Team
NASDAQ:TSLA
by brandlabelden
BTCUSDT. Analysis of the daily timeframeHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily time frame, there is a sideways range. Its boundaries are marked on the chart. Yesterday, January 13, the price interacted with the lower boundary of the range at 90,500. 33% of the volume was accumulated in the 91,000-92,000 range (blue band on the chart), which is above the boundary. The quick buy-up is not always favorable for the buyer. A more favorable situation for the buyer would have been if the volume had been gathered below the boundary. Now, there is some unfinished business below 90,500. We’ll see how the situation develops. The current buyer vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 102,724 (103,333, 108,353). There are several obstacles in the buyer's path: 95,836, 97,268, and above, the seller’s zone formed at the beginning of vector 7-8 (red rectangle on the chart). 1H Timeframe Analysis On the hourly time frame, there is also a sideways range. Its boundaries are marked on the chart. The current buyer vector is 9-10 with a potential target of 99,963 (102,724). Purchases can be considered (buying patterns) on the hourly time frame in the range of 93,100-94,127, where there are two bars with increased volumes and the upper boundary of the range where yesterday’s volume was traded. You can also look for purchases around 91,530-90,500, but first assess whether any new obstacles for the buyer have formed on the hourly time frame as the price moves toward 91,530. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
EURUSD. The buyer is not showing any strengthHey traders and investors! (For a detailed analysis, refer to the related post) The buyer is not showing any strength. The price is once again below the lower boundary of the range (1.03319). The bar on January 8th shows a slight increase in volume, indicating increased interest from both buyers and sellers. Volume is accumulating in the same area from where the buyer emerged on January 6th (the blue line on the chart shows the range where 33% of the bar's volume was traded). As long as the price remains below 1.03319, it is preferable to look for sell opportunities (sell patterns). Above this level, buy patterns can be considered. For buying, it would be beneficial to accumulate volume below 1.03319 today and maybe tomorrow, then move back above the level and defend the breakout. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
EURUSD. Trading opportunityHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there is a range-bound market. The boundaries are marked on the chart. The current buyer vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 1.06098. A buyer zone has formed within the current buyer vector (green rectangle on the chart). Buying opportunities (buy patterns) can be sought from the buyer zone. 1H Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is also a range-bound market, with boundaries marked on the chart. Given the daily timeframe, it's preferable to look for buys from the lower levels of the range (1.03525, 1.03319 – 1.03286) or after the buyer breaks out of the upper boundary (1.0437) and defends the breakout. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
Gold. Buying opportunitiesHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there is a range. The current buyer's vector is 7-8, with a potential target of 2721 (2726). A buyer's zone (marked by a green rectangle on the chart) has formed in the emerging buyer's vector. For a detailed analysis, refer to the related post. The seller's daily bar from January 6, with increased volume, failed to engulf the buyer's bar from January 2, which created the buyer's zone (green rectangle on the chart). The key volume of the bar (the blue band on the chart shows the range where 33% of the bar's volume has been traded) is below the level of 2636.705, which we've been monitoring. This favors looking for buying opportunities. 1H Timeframe Analysis On the hourly timeframe, there is a range near the level of 2636.705, with boundaries indicated on the chart. Buying Strategy Buying patterns can be sought at the bottom of the range or after the buyer exits the range and defends the breakout. The potential target on the daily timeframe is 2721 (2726). I wish you profitable trades!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
Bitcoin - A quarter of a million dollars - is it possible?Good Morning, Good Evening! A new year brings new candles, new opportunities and new challenges. I decided to write down my new thoughts and, where appropriate, reflect on my previous analyses. Naturally, my primary focus is on the asset that leads the cryptocurrency market – Bitcoin. I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand. Background Since its inception, Bitcoin has been in a continuous long-term upward trend. Throughout this time, there have been four minor reaccumulation structures and four major ones, occurring chronologically. Each structure has taken progressively longer to form, and the upward trend has been gradually flattening over time. Technical Analysis and Thoughts In this analysis, I will apply tools from volume analysis, Wyckoff methodology, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), and Elliott Wave Theory. At the beginning, I will refer to an analysis I published about a year and a half ago on this platform: "Comparative Analysis of BTC," 24.09.2023 (links attached). Looking back at my previous analysis, I see that my reasoning and chosen tools were correct. As is often the case in attempts to master the market using Technical Analysis, the price action deviated from the expected scenario. However, the primary trend remained intact. I missed certain key structures, such as the Spring, which I would interpret differently today. But I will get to that later. The key resistance levels, derived from price structure and Fibonacci extensions, appear to have been recognized by the market. The price stalled just below the resistance level at 2.618, an extension based on the Spring-Buying Exhaustion range from 2015 and 2017/2018 reaccumulation phases. Similarly, the external measurement of 1.618, calculated from the 2017/2018 Spring to the 2021 Upthrust, was respected by market participants. Both levels align perfectly with significant price points. I mentioned that today I would approach the topic differently. This is due to the revealed market structure (it's always easier to analyze when you can see everything, right? 😉) as well as the experience I've gained by continuously expanding my analytical horizon. Looking at the latest high-order reaccumulation structure (December 2021 – March 2024), I realize I made an error in my interpretation. The overall price action indicates a lack of supply around the $16K level. Interestingly, BTC/USDT on Binance shows significant accumulation, which I deduce from Bag Holding candles. The core point of my argument is that I have witnessed the formation of a large accumulation structure, whose elements align with the Wyckoff methodology. The market behaved as expected based on this interpretation. One particularly important element is the Last Point of Supply (LPS), represented by the March 2024 – November 2024 reaccumulation phase. I discussed this process in detail in my September 6, 2024 publication titled "Bitcoin – Technical Analysis." The ~250-day trading range, during which the price was stuck, allowed Smart Money to accumulate assets from those willing to sell. Despite the temporary stagnation, which I currently observe, the upward trend will likely continue. The strength of this trend is confirmed by the use of volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the Test of Phase C, according to Wyckoff's methodology. When analyzing the three most recent tests in the three highest-order reaccumulation structures, I observe that the price moves within a channel defined by the second and third standard deviations. I think that the current sideways structure is a Back Up to the Creek from the latest high-order reaccumulation phase. Its characteristics resemble a reaccumulation phase. At this stage, I am unsure whether this structure will directly lead to a breakout to significantly higher price levels, or whether it will result in an Upthrust of a higher-order structure, followed by another Spring. The structure shows declining volume and several Bag Holding candles, marked with green arrows on my chart. The Upthrust does not exhibit distribution characteristics but instead suggests a lack of demand. The candle marked with a question mark is interesting due to its dual nature. However, upon closer examination of the 4-hour interval, it appears to be an Upthrust of a lower-tier structure, aimed at absorbing supply. I want to highlight the relationship between the Test of Phase C and the structure forming along previous peaks. Considering the two most recent reaccumulation phases, the situation is as follows: I do not take into account overly optimistic price movements that exceed the 8.0 external retracement level, due to the flattening of the global trend over time. Instead, I consider more realistic targets based on Fibonacci levels, such as 3.618 and 2.618 extensions, indicating a price range between $170K and $230K. In my September 24, 2023 analysis, I mentioned $240K as a 3.618 external retracement level measured from March 2020 to October 2021. Using 1:1 geometry, I estimate that the price could reach around $250K, which aligns with my other methods. Conclusion of the Analysis I have presented various methods to identify the direction and potential range of Bitcoin's price movement. Although it is difficult to pinpoint the exact peak of the trend, the analysis provides sufficient signals to expect supply levels within the indicated price ranges. Confirmation of a trend reversal would require a high-order distribution structure visible on higher time frames. Final Thoughts I have intentionally referred to my previous analyses to maintain continuity and to highlight both successes and mistakes. The purpose of this reflection is to improve my analytical process by identifying what I did well and where I need to focus more in future analyses. I believe that Technical Analysis, practiced for over a century, holds a certain beauty and logic. The process of applying it, and reaping its rewards, is an intellectual delight. Ultimately, the weakest link is not the tool, but the person using it. Therefore, continuous improvement and patience are essential. The chart is the only reliable source that reveals the intentions of Smart Money or Composite Man, depending on the interpretation of market personality. Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read my thoughts. I hope you found them insightful, and that your time was well spent. Wishing you health, perseverance, and successful trades. May you master the art of recognizing well-formed market structures. CatTheTrader
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CatTheTrader
XAUUSD. Trading opportunityHey traders and investors! Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you health, energy, and success in all your endeavors! Patience, composure, and perseverance in mastering the intricacies of the markets! On the daily timeframe, there is a range. The current buyer's vector is 7-8, with a potential target of 2721 (2726). In the buyer's vector that has started, a buyer's zone has formed (green rectangle on the chart). The seller is testing this zone. Buying opportunities (buy patterns) can be sought from this zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, there is also a buyer's zone at these levels, and a test level has already formed at 2636.705. You can look for buying opportunities from a manipulation (false breakout) of the test level if the price returns there. I wish you profitable trades!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
BTCUSDT. Analysis of the daily timeframe.Hey traders and investors! The price of Bitcoin entered the range of 92,232 - 90,500, and the buyer resumed activity (see previous posts). On the daily timeframe, there is a range, with its boundaries marked on the chart. The current buyer's vector is 6-7. The first target is almost reached at 99,963.7. The next target will be 103,333 (the seller’s zone at the upper boundary of the range). If looking for buy opportunities, it’s advisable to focus on lower timeframes with a tight stop-loss and a near-term target based on the lower timeframe. The feasibility of looking for sell opportunities can be evaluated once the price reaches 103,333 I wish you profitable trades.
by AlexeyWolf
PIKK 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level ? (new spread) + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - SOS level above JOC + support level + volumed Sp + weak test" Monthly context "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume 2Sp+ in 4d" Yearly context "- no trend - context direction short"
RUS:PIKKLong
by MishaSuvorov
BTCUSDT. Daily and 4 hour TF analysisHey traders and investors! Daily Timeframe Analysis The price of Bitcoin is in a range on the daily timeframe. The lower boundary is 90,500, and the upper boundary is 108,353 (more details in previous reviews). The seller's vector 3-4 stopped at the level of 92,232.54. The key bar in the seller's vector (the bar with the highest volume) is the bar from December 19. At the beginning of the seller's vector, a seller's zone was formed with a lower boundary of 103,333 (red rectangle on the chart), and this zone has not yet been tested by the buyer on the daily timeframe. This means there is a high probability of the seller resuming from this zone. The buyer's vector 4-5 started to develop on December 20, and on December 21, the seller resumed from the key bar of the seller's vector, forming the test level of the key bar of the seller's vector at 99,540.61. Then, the price interacted with the test level, and yesterday, December 26, the seller resumed again. The potential target for the seller could be 92,232.54. 4H Timeframe Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is also in a range with similar boundaries to the daily timeframe: the lower boundary is 90,500, and the upper boundary is 108,353. The seller's vector 13-14 reached the required target, and the buyer's vector 14-15 began to develop with a potential target of 102,800.11. Summary: On the weekly timeframe (see previous reviews), there is a long trend. The priority is buying. On the daily and 4-hour timeframes, there are ranges. It is a priority to look for buys at the bottom of the range and sells at the top. It is interesting to look for buying opportunities (buy patterns) after the price interacts with 92,232 or 90,500. The potential target is 102,800 (103,333). I wish you profitable trades.
by AlexeyWolf
NVIDIA. Buying opportunitiesHey traders and investors! NVIDIA Daily Timeframe Analysis A sideways trend (range) was formed on the daily time frame in October 2024 (point 4 was formed). The lower boundary is 128.74, and the upper boundary is 152.89. The seller's vector 11-12 interacted with the lower boundary of the range, where key volumes of the vector passed ("rKC" on the chart). The buyer absorbed these volumes on December 23, meaning they defended the lower boundary of the range. The current buyer's vector is 12-13, with a potential target of 146.54 (152.89). The obstacle for the buyer is the test level of the seller's zone at 142.82 (the seller's zone is the red rectangle on the chart). It makes sense to look for buying opportunities (buy patterns) as part of the idea of realizing the buyer's vector 12-13. I wish you profitable trades.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by AlexeyWolf
SMLT 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test + biggest volume first buying bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation" Yearly trend "+ T1 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation?"
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
XAUUSD. Analysis of the daily timeframeHey traders and investors! Let me remind you, on the daily timeframe, there's a range. The upper boundary is 2726.295, and the lower boundary is 2536.855. The current seller's vector 6-7 has reached the first target of 2605.31, and the price has nearly hit the second target of 2581.445. The seller’s daily bar on December 18th showed good volume and spread. It is risky to look for short trades now since the price is at the lower end of the range. You can search for buying patterns as an idea for the buyer's vector 7-8 with a potential target of 2721.42. However, there are two factors to consider: 1. The seller’s daily bar from December 18th with good volume and spread indicates strong sellers, from which a seller could resume. To find a buying pattern, it would be ideal for the seller to resume from this bar (e.g., on the hourly timeframe) and be overcome by the buyer. 2. The price has not yet touched the buyer's zone (green rectangle on the chart), with its upper level being the second target (2581.445). To find a buying pattern, it would be ideal for the price to enter the buyer's zone and see the buyer's resumption from there. If both factors are met, the likelihood of a successful buying pattern will be significantly higher—observing the seller's resumption, the touch of the buyer’s zone, and the buyer’s resumption. I wish you profitable trades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlexeyWolf
LLY 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - expanding T2 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume manipulation" Yearly Context "+ long impulse - neutral zone"
NYSE:LLYLong
by MishaSuvorov
AFKS Swing 1H Long Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade + long balance + 1/2 correction + volumed ICE level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp- + weak test - above first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 level + volumed manipulation + support level" Monthly Context "- short impulse + biggest volume T1 level - below 1/2 correction + support level - one bar reversal?!" Yearly Context "- short impulse - neutral zone"
RUS:AFKS
by MishaSuvorov
BTCUSDT. Where to expect the buyer’s resumption?Hey traders and investors! On the 4-hour timeframe, there is a sideways range. The lower boundary is 90,500, and the upper boundary is 104,088. The buyer effectively broke out above the upper boundary in the 12-13 vector. The seller returned the price to the range, and the buyer resumed from the 103,333 level, forming a test level. Below this test level is the buyer’s zone (green rectangle on the chart, upper boundary of the zone is 102,540). If the buyer does not defend the 103,333 test level, the next buyer resurgence is possible from the buyer’s zone, most likely in the 100,500-102,000 range. The third possible place for a buyer’s resurgence is around 50% of the last buyer’s impulse: 98,574 on the 4-hour timeframe and 99,426.5 on the daily timeframe. Considering the three buyer interest zones and the buyer's trend on the daily timeframe, searching for sell opportunities based on the 13-14 vector within the sideways range, with a potential target of 94,150 (90,500), is risky. I wish you profitable trades.
by AlexeyWolf
BDL - An update and a VSA Learning ExerciseThis is just a learning exercise. We had anticipated a good move from this stock. However, 1230 was the trigger point for the Up move Now let us do a bar to bar analysis. Refer the box marked “A”. We can see there was a sideways move or a consolidation happening. We can see the prices clustering together and the volume became low. It Indicated accumulation going on. Refer to the bar marked “B”. It is an up bar with increased volume. This bar was an indication that things are about to change. Refer to the Bar marked “C”. The next bar is a wide spread bar going past the trigger point, ending near the top. Also, we can see the volume increased volume indicating a high probable Breakout. And today's bar (marked “D’) opened up above the previous close. The bar did see some selling, but finally it overcame the selling and closed up. Of course, the spread was not, the spread was narrow indicating selling pressure still present. We can see the stock has started its up move and it is all supported by increased volume and the momentum. The price action momentum is also driven by volume and we can see increased relative strength. All that support further up move and the first obstacle we could see would be 1365, where we may see some more consolidation before further up move. This whole exercise is just for learning purpose.
NSE:BDLEducation
by karthikmarar
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