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Vshape

"Cuban" Missile Crisis 2022The Ukraine crisis and threats with nuclear war, I see as we are getting closer to the bottom. There are many similarities with Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, month when market bottomed out. To start accelerated run for BTC from that 20k accumulative range , funding rate should be way more high in negative(more shorts opened then longs), so V shape down to 16k-GOLDEN POCKET, is the way I see to become bullish again. Dump to 16-17k range and third touch of bullish divergence on RSI
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by deepUP
FRACTAL ANALYSIS. V SHAPE RECOVERY. 20% CHANCE. SEE DESCRIPTION.So, i have something to share with you. This is just my vision. JUST MY FANTASY. Let's speak about it now. ***WARNING*** YOU WILL BECOME A MOON BOY/GIRL, SO REMEMBER THAT IT IS ONLY 20% CHANCE. I used fractal analysis (took a fractal from covid dump and V shape recovery that happened in 2020), to predict what can possibly happen. During Covid dump It was absolutely the same - unpredicted conditions on the markets and bad macro economic factors in general. During 2022 dip in Crypto people has been expecting the CRASH OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM, but in general we received 9.5% CPI rates and this is it. Same was with Covid dump. People has been expecting apocalypses, but economy recovered in 6 months and a lot of people who bought crypto during these dip became a millionaires just in one year (imagine ETH for $80). According to this theory, i think, that even stock2flow model can be still correct. Just timeframes have been changed. So lets speak about the cycle. I think, if we will see this option playing out, than overall bullish trend of 2021 was just a pre-bullrun. Real bullrun in this case should happen in 2023 when BTC will hit $300K+ price target. THE FOMO WILL BE ABSOLUTELY UNBEARABLE. And this will be the end of this cycle and we will see another bear market (apx. since september 2023 till september 2024) with an absolute bottom for 1BTC at $70k-80k. And just enjoy how this fractal perfectly matches everything. So according to this model - we will see $60K+ for 1 BTC at the end of this year. And $300K+ for 1 BTC in the next 12 months. Crazy? yes. Possible? Yes. Will it happen? I would say yes with a 20% chance 😁
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto_Occultist
1
K-Shaped Recoverymany people still thinks we're in a V-Shape recovery , but it's a K-Shaped recovery in progress right now. which is one of last thing you want to see in a major economy. dumb money goes into many worthless tech companies and spike their market caps at unbeliavable levels. (just like before 2000 dotcom bust) on the otherside industrial sectors are not showing any robust recovery signs. from this perspective this market is totally unstable now and crash is inevitable.
TVC:SPX
by VulcanoRosso
11
When We Mistake the Map for the TerritoryNow that we know the virus is not going to get even remotely close to what the models were projecting (for now). I think it’s relevant to compare this V-shaped price recovery to the December 18 market plunge. Dec. 03 peak to Dec. 24th trough = we plunged 17.10% (in 3 weeks) From that bottom to Jan. 18 peak = we rebounded 14.74% (25 days) -->We recuperated about 86.5% of that percentage loss Feb. 19 peak to March 23rd trough = we plunged 35.72% From that bottom to our April 20th peak = we rebounded 31.5% (also 25 days!) -->We recaptured about 88% of that percentage loss *Now why did I choose these specific dates?? Answer: Because both April 20 (2020) and Jan. 18 (2018) are the peaks we made before we deviated from that “V-shaped recovery channel” Conclusion: In both V-shaped recoveries, we recapture roughly 87% of that % loss in “coincidently” 25 days as well. And then deviated out of the V-shaped channel, tested the nearest support for confirmation, and tipped off a new bull market. It probably boils down to some sort of market psychology that repeats in these types of circumstances... Now unlike the conventional belief right now, why is it all of sudden relevant and perhaps helpful to compare this crash to December 2018’s? 1)it’s the most recent liquidity crisis we’ve had 2)it was an overreaction to the potentiality of something -fear that we’re due for a recession because this bull run is much longer than its predecessors -this cycle has lasted for 10 years whereas the average is 4.5 years. This does not constitute a recession! -However, this bad logic no longer mattered once the fear becomes a contagion 3)The unraveling effect. This begins when people are provoked(by media) to look for these assurances and “oddly enough” they find these assurances As the wise Nassim Taleb says when describing cultural products, "It is hard for us to accept that people do not fall in love with works of art only for their own sake, but also in order to feel that they belong to a community. By imitating, we get closer to others-that is, other imitators. It fights solitude." Just think about it for a minute. If you were really to boil down and I mean really...The Covid crash, Dec. 2018 crash, Feb. 2018 “Peak”, Dot Com tech bubble, 01’ panic were all triggered by nothing more than a cultural product. How do contagions come about? We as humans scorn the abstract, we hate uncertainty. What we have is an aptitude for reduction. We find patterns where there are not (at first). Where can these patterns be found? What does the current language around me sound like? Most people just accept this as truth but all it is, is majority opinion that becomes so widely accepted that it becomes reality. This according to the book Black Swan is called “platonicity” which is our tendency to mistake the map for the territory. We focus on the pure and well-defined forms, the overgeneralizations, the things that make sense. And where things get dangerous is when, “...these ideas and crisp constructs inhabit our minds, we privilege them over the less tractable structures Platonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do. Now obviously this does not happen everywhere. Only in specific applications are these models, and constructions, these intellectual maps of reality wrong. “These models are like potentially helpful medicines that carry random but very severe side effects...The platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the platonic mindset enters in contact with messy reality where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.” (Nassim Taleb)
SP:SPX
by TheMandalorian27
5
SPX500 update - short from 3500Hello traders and analysts, Here is update to our outlook previous ideas posted below. We have our confirmations - everything aligns - is the election the trigger? or will we overextend? We are holding sells - let's see how long this can go for. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
SPX500 - long to 3500+ then short to create a new lowHello traders and analysts, Here is update to our weekly outlook provided April 24th. judging by the closeness of our results so far - we are pretty much on track to our prediction. We are already short on this and will hold our sells in conjunctions with longs and close out longs as price hits highs. Do not over leverage and apply risk management if you use our analysis for your own benefit. Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone. Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
S&P 500 - Megaphone complete, now sellUpdate to our long term S&P analysis. Check the link below: Hello traders and analysts, Here is update to our weekly outlook provided April 24th and July 22 judging by the closeness of our results so far - we are pretty much on track to our prediction. We are already short on this and will hold our sells in conjunctions with longs and close out longs as price hits highs. Do not over leverage and apply risk management if you use our analysis for your own benefit. Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone . Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 90-91 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. Check out or Vix for long inverse 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - enter volatility state We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding - constantly.. High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 28,500 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. - this is now being challenged Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crisis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
SPX at ATH! Which strategies to use now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s do a complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) on SPX today! We are going to look at the charts, then we will discuss about strategies. It did a new ATH today (close), which is impressive! The U.S. market is very strong, and it seems the bears can’t stand a chance. There’s no sign of a pullback ahead , and it seems SPX just fulfilled a chart pattern named V shape recovery . Now we are near a natural resistance zone (red line), and SPX still must do a proper breakout from the black line (pre covid-19 ATH). But SPX is trading above the 21 ema, so, if it will do a pullback in the future, it has the 21 ema and the purple line as important supports levels. Now, let’s see the daily chart: The only thing that bugs me here is the decreasing volume. Another important thing to keep in mind is the purple trendline , which has been guiding the price for a while. If SPX loses its trendline, the red line at 3280 is a target for a pullback. But again, it would be just a pullback, not a reversal. When we see a pullback, we buy near its supports. Very simple. But until now, there’s nothing indicating there’s a pullback ahead. Let’s see the weekly chart for a complete analysis: Since we are near a natural resistance, it is never a good idea to buy. Also, is not interesting to short, as the Risk/Reward ratio is not good. Now is the time to manage positions. The weekly chart suggests that a pullback to the purple line around 3232 would be acceptable. Now, strategies: If you are long, just book your profits if SPX loses the purple trendline in the daily chart. Another good idea is to book your profits if SPX closes under the previous candlestick low, this is a trailing stop. Or you could just wait for a bearish pivot in the hourly chart. All these strategies are very good to manage your positions in the most intelligent way possible. Then you may just buy SPX again after the pullback, when it gets close to a support. This will eventually happen and is better be prepared! Also, if you liked these techniques, support this idea! And I invite you to follow me for more analyses. Every day, after the market closes, I’ll be here to share a few ideas with you. Recent public trades (links below): XP: +30% AAPL: +10% LB: +45% UKOIL: +62% Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate! BECOME A MEMBER! Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped. Thank you very much. * LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because: - Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. * * My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
S&P 500 U Shape Recovery 2020-2022The impossible "V-shaped" The year 2020, a bad memory quickly forgotten? No, warn more and more economists, alarmed by the violence of the shock in the first half. They expect a slow recovery, provided that a second wave of the new coronavirus does not strike. The IMF has also made it clear that, despite the expected rebound, world GDP in 2021 would come out cut by 6.5% compared to what was expected before the pandemic. Some sectors are affected for a long time, especially in services. Perfect example: tourism and travel. No catching up possible for empty rooms, meals never served, planes nailed to the ground. Did IATA, the international air transport association, not warn that it did not expect to return to normal before ... 2023? In industry, factories face many health restrictions. Farmers all over the world are struggling due to the lack of foreign workers. Exit therefore, the "V" scenario that some people were still hoping for in February. Rather, it is a "U-shaped" scenario that emerges at best, with several months of recession before the economy recovers. See a "W" with alternating rebounds and relapses. Or, worse yet, an "L" with depressed activity for a very long time.
SP:SPXShort
by Nugacity_Fracedinous
NASDAQ | Parabolic Curve | V-Shape Recovery | Blow-Off Top Todays Chart – Nasdaq 100 Index – Trading in blue-sky territory respecting the parabolic curve. Points to consider: - V-shape recovery - Respecting parabolic formation - Bullish trend- consecutive higher lows - Fibonacci extension target approaching (4.236) - RSI above 50 - RSI bearish divergence - Multi confluence support (200 EMA + .618 Fibonacci retracement + structural support) Conjuring a V-shaped recovery, NDX is looking to put in a blow-off top as the finale to what has been quite the euphoric bull run. Despite the 30% market crash, NDX continues its higher low projection, respecting the parabolic formation as it approaches the 4.236 Fibonacci extension target. The RSI is above 50, showing strength in the market immediate market, however, there is a technical bearish divergence indicating weakness in the forthcoming months. Historically, NDX has retraced to the 200 EMA during bear markets which is indicative of a reversal to the 200 EMA being eventual. Furthermore, the .618 Fibonacci retracement (pulled from the 4.236 extension) is in confluence with structural support, thus a retrace to the support zone is probable. Overall, in my opinion, Nasdaq needs to put in reversal price action (lower highs, lower lows) to validate a short trade to the technical target below.
TVC:NDQShort
by Kudiiee
Online Retail. V-Shaped recoveryIt is rare to see a real V-shaped recovery, IBUY will most likely test previous all-time-high. $54 to $56.5 is an important range. To see it more clearly, just zoom out, or use a weekly chart. OBV has been indicative... as we cross above or below the 200sma, we can see OBV start a trend, either down or up, in conjunction with the 200sma. After our most recent cross above the 200sma, OBV is reaching 1-year high. Watching closely for a new breakout, which will possibly be followed by a re-test the previous highs. IBUY top-10 portfolio holdings with weight %: CHWY (4.89%) STMP (4.79%) NFLX (4.01%) PETS (3.83%) PTON (3.56%) GRUB (3.48%) AMZN (3.35%) CHGG (3.21%) UBER (3.20%) FLWS (3.11%)
I
by dorfmanmaster
When We Mistake the Map For the Territory Now that we know the virus is not going to get even remotely close to what the models were projecting (for now). I think it’s relevant to compare this V-shaped price recovery to the December 18 market plunge. Dec. 03 peak to Dec. 24th trough = we plunged 17.10% (in 3 weeks) From that bottom to Jan. 18 peak = we rebounded 14.74% (25 days) -->We recuperated about 86.5% of that percentage loss Feb. 19 peak to March 23rd trough = we plunged 35.72% From that bottom to our April 20th peak = we rebounded 31.5% (also 25 days!) -->We recaptured about 88% of that percentage loss *Now why did I choose these specific dates?? Answer: Because both April 20 (2020) and Jan. 18 (2018) are the peaks we made before we deviated from that “V-shaped recovery channel” Conclusion: In both V-shaped recoveries, we recapture roughly 87% of that % loss in “coincidently” 25 days as well. And then deviated out of the V-shaped channel, tested the nearest support for confirmation, and tipped off a new bull market. It probably boils down to some sort of market psychology that repeats in these types of circumstances... Now unlike the conventional belief right now, why is it all of sudden relevant and perhaps helpful to compare this crash to December 2018’s? 1)it’s the most recent liquidity crisis we’ve had 2)it was an overreaction to the potentiality of something -fear that we’re due for a recession because this bull run is much longer than its predecessors -this cycle has lasted for 10 years whereas the average is 4.5 years. This does not constitute a recession! -However, this bad logic no longer mattered once the fear becomes a contagion 3)The unraveling effect. This begins when people are provoked(by media) to look for these assurances and “oddly enough” they find these assurances As the wise Nassim Taleb says when describing cultural products, "It is hard for us to accept that people do not fall in love with works of art only for their own sake, but also in order to feel that they belong to a community. By imitating, we get closer to others-that is, other imitators. It fights solitude." Just think about it for a minute. If you were really to boil down and I mean really...The Covid crash, Dec. 2018 crash, Feb. 2018 “Peak”, Dot Com tech bubble, 01’ panic were all triggered by nothing more than a cultural product. How do contagions come about? We as humans scorn the abstract, we hate uncertainty. What we have is an aptitude for reduction. We find patterns where there are not (at first). Where can these patterns be found? What does the current language around me sound like? Most people just accept this as truth but all it is, is majority opinion that becomes so widely accepted that it becomes reality. This according the book Black Swan is called “platonicity” which is our tendency to mistake the map for the territory. We focus on the pure and well-defined forms, the overgeneralizations, the things that make sense. And where things get dangerous is when, “...these ideas and crisp constructs inhabit our minds, we privilege them over the less tractable structures Platonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do. Now obviously this does not happen everywhere. Only in specific applications are these models, and constructions, these intellectual maps of reality wrong. “These models are like potentially helpful medicines that carry random but very severe side effects...The platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the platonic mindset enters in contact with messy reality where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.” (Nassim Taleb)
AMEX:SPY
by TheMandalorian27
11