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VVIX

VXN - 4 Hour / Elon'dCould not happen to a better gauge of Fear and complacency - the trusty VXN... senseless comes to mind as the NQ began the 1:30 PM EST Jumbalaya in the Fire. Another persistent AGLO Monday with the usual suspects in Prop. As the VXX began to implode again, the Bod came into the Indies. Pressure remains out in Time for today and tomorrow, with the attendant Distributions. Simply a crushing blow to Volatility while New HIghs remains elusive. _________________________________________________________________ A bad sign for the Equity Complex as there is only so much the VX Vigilantes will absorb. It will be interesting to see if the Larger Daily Price Objective to which the ALGOs are attached, relent and reverse.
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
1
VXX - Arb Low into New ATL'sNot ready for Prime Time, but then with Lower Objectives below and Daily Lows day after day with lower Yearly Lows... It is beginning to look as if the VFX could trade into the 15s at this rate - currently 19.05. Volatility continues to be beaten with the Ugly Stick. ___________________________________________________________ There has not been a Retacement exceeding the .382 in 10 days with 1 and only 1 exception. A new streak for the VX complex. The Fed's mercurial puncture wounds continue to press and with CASH @ 17.15 and 15's in sight, one wonders how off base this will trade given the enormous Risk profile Globally.
CBOE:VXX
by HK_L61
5
VX - M1/V1 : M2/V2 DailyThe VIX Guy, 50 Cents isn't present. Implied VX is SKY HIGH. __________________________________ The Illusion continues to Live. A great many are going to pay the Price for being dead-ass wrong. __________________________________ I'm going to be as Subjective as the mood suits today. QE Breeds Instability Conditions under QE - the substantive change may actually be relatively minor, but this is irrelevant to speculators and Degenerate Gamblers at the Flamingo Sports Book. The reason, simple: Speculators with assets in the Bag with longer maturities will take larger capital losses with relatively small changes in interest rates under prevailing Confidence. Projecting my inner monologue is something I attempt to avoid on balance - Shake Rattle and Roll on FOMC minutes is how I'm setting up for a Deline. ______________________________________ Something very serious is about to happen, can't shake it. We will be SELLERs, win lose or draw. Scalps the Micro Ranges with a SKEW at extremes. There you have it... Alex and I are Salmon Fishing. Have a great rest of the Weekend. Happy Hunting - Hunter Killer
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
VVIX: Telltale Sign / Large Dunk begins againOnce this completes, rising Bond VX and Elevated Vol of Vol... A Very Bad Sign as Santa presses his Luck. The Operators have the ALGOs tee'd up to reverse this absurd non-sense once we see VX Vol crushed to Support. Should be a stunning reversal. ______________________________________________________ Depression Trade needs to be priced in... Then another Whacko response, then new highs... Then 50% decline in 2022. Fiddling with explosives... Our Central Prankers.
V
by HK_L61
8
VXF - The Blow Monkey2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening. Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into the Close. All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold. Continued Distribution. __________________________________________________________________ With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100% of VXX concentrated in VXF, the horror show begins Wednesday / Thursday - that is 100% certain. Who gets the Hall of Mirrors treatment... Stay Tuned - as the Lower High, until it is confirmed suggests a lower low well below the 4260 for the ES. A higher high and a friendly Pelican with a mouth full of fish means this complete mess could trade up into Mid January, prior to letting go into MARCH. ___________________________________________________________________ VXX - FAILURE IS 21.39 and then confirmed by 21.28 then 20.36. Sound unrealistic? Yeah, I feel ya. VXF 21.10 Price Objective on Pullback... VXF is above within the Chart Frame - Cloud Momentum and Trend have been the RANGE. Expect more complete insanity... expect nothing less. We remain 100% CASH until 230 - 3 PM EST. Should APPL reverse and retest the Highs, the Vomit Comet is my ride. __________________________________________________________________ ALL OR NOTHING for the Operators. Sure would like this to be easier.... it's not. Prefer to enjoy this, I'm not.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
8
VIX Daily - 2021 Lows to HighsWhat is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX: The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike The Prior Spike did NOT. _________________________________________________________ Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY. VXN for NQ. VIX Range for Today 22.30 - 25.15 with 23.40 as the Pivot *** 22.50 is the LIS. _________________________________________________________ With Powell speaking late today the Operators will no doubt pull out the stops to make the Re-Anointed Chair appear Gilded. Long week ahead as this develops. Large Gap Below on VIX.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - VXZ Front Month / MonthlyA Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern for the Bulls. Delta remains the trade in the VIX. Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED. _________________________________________________________________ The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX. 2021 - 61.44% 2007 - 64.22% 2018 - 115.60% For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points. Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier. __________________________________________________________________ Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below. Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed. VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2 ____________________________________________________________________ For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal: Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22. At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff. This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's Financial health. The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. __________________________________________________________________________ Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk. Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy. The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day. This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History. The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd. They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages over large institutions Thesis. Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing. Leverage was not an issue then as it is now. It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them. _______________________________________________________________________ Will History report? It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that. We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where... Fundamentally Straight down or not at all. Interesting times indeed.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
10
VXN - Range CompressingWe have sold the NQ twice during the AM Session. EU Session Close will be our 3rd Opportunity for the SELL. The usual Gamma Squeeze Suspects are in the Trade. After blowing through Extension Price Objectives, the NASDAQ is getting Extremely Over-Heated. __________________________________________________ TSLA 1209s appear to be the trigger for the ES to hit 4750. AMZN is seeing Profit-taking while the Semis continue to be bid. TNX isn't having it - +3.78%. Something is going to Break IF the VIX can hold above 20.20. __________________________________________________ Our Position - Press Sells. Today has been very amusing so far. Markets simply teetering on the Abyss. Non-Plussed on our End. We will see how the EU Session Press and EOD Print registered on the Stop Run / Bubble Scale
CBOE:VXN
by HK_L61
2
VIX - Day 190 Curve Contango / VXX / VVIX / UVXYThe VIX Roll Yield was 398 Ticks of Spread on Settlement. It has since come into 336 Ticks VX1/M1 over Spot. The Curve has remained in Contango for the second-longest period since the creation of the Volatility Complex in 2004. 273 Days remains the prior longest Contango Duration. ___________________________________________________ Roll Yield close over 20%, the mean is ~ 8.55%. More than 2X the average. This implies the continuation of the current period of sustained lower Volatility. Intra-Day, compression brought the M1/M2 into Backwardation a few weeks back, on Close, it traded back to Contango. ___________________________________________________ Traders are clearly Trend following, comfortable with the VOL Crush as Vol of Vol (VVIX) traded through 105 tp 102.36. VVIX traded to 100.06 on October 21st during the 15:00 Hourly Bar. The Spread Gap to close for the Continuous Contract has a great deal or room to resolve. 2021 the VX Curve Trend has been Lower, as it was from the ATH made in 2020. A Daily Downtrend with a clearly defined Price Objective @ 12.25. ___________________________________________________ Chasing WaterFalls has paid in the VX Curve as Sellers have seen a continual decline, with few interruptions. ___________________________________________________ The VXX (Constant Rolling 30 Day Maturity) is making new lows. Price will again on NYSE OPEN - IF the Globex Price Levels hold from the O/N Ramp and Camp. 20.75 will be exceeded to the downside. Uber Kink - UVXY - has made another All Time Low @ 15.70 while continuing to Ride the downward slopping Lower Weekly Trend Line. There are a great many "This is It~! (TII) moments in the 1/5X levered UVXY. It has its teeth pulled long ago when the 2X was cut by 33% to current levels of 30 Day - All in Positions on VX which has been systematically Crushed. Positioning for the Big Lick there has been met with "Capital Relief"... ___________________________________________________ For now, AND this is subject to change... Wall Street has the VX complex well contained. How much longer will it last? It will depend, of course, on how the next two weeks unfold through the Meat of EPS. We have the FED and further Taper Talk into early November ___________________________________________________ The VX Complex moves "Out of Balance" - only to be brought back into "Balance" once everyone has begun Whale Watching Portside. Starboard list is approaching. ___________________________________________________ There are a number of concerns building within the Equity Complex, how long will they require to resolve... will depend on how carefully worded Companies reporting temper their "Inflation Warnings."
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
2
VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement. This occurred October 19th - Wednesday. Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX. It is quite large... and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the potential for Higher Equities Complex. They have set this up perfectly. Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable given the Roll Yields. Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change. ______________________________________________________________________ Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.
V
by HK_L61
2
VIX - November M1 @ 96%This will get interesting as Price begins to resolve the Continuous Contract for the VIX M1/M2. The prior October Range: 14.70 -24.00 As November begins to square Price is within the Window for the potential of the VIX reversing Up @ 9.89% of Settlements. Effectively placing Price in a Desert, a nowhere landscape. The Monthly Trend is quite Clear with a lower-Price Objective @ 12.25. What happens this week will provide further insights into whether 4/5 is complete and 5/5 has begun, or we see something entirely different. Longer-Term TF's favor the Latter for now. We shall see.
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
4
VIX - M1 Completing Lower Daily GapsAs M1 continues the Roll to M2 (November) we see the 2 Primary Gaps coming into Range The remaining Gap resides @ 16.20. The VVIX remains stubborn in its FILL into the Corner @ 105. It remains in strength during a period of extreme M1 Weakness. A very good sign, as it indicates out the Curve, there is IMMENSE Support. Institutions are quietly hoovering up the VX Complex Curve, which in turn Supports our Trade Plan for the loss of momentum and roll-over to the 200SMAs. Next Wednesday / Thursday continues to appear as a Pivotal day for this Counter-Trend.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
VIX - VVIX into CornerCPI Year over Year @ 4% / Month over Month @ 0.2% - a continuuing build for Inflation. FED Bostic indicated "Inflation" is no longer transitory. The Data supports his statement with the continuing build @ 2.4% annualized. The FOMC statement @ 2PM EST will provide the Fuel for a potential Taper Tantrum. The 3AM EST Prop on EU Session Open has failed once again for the 6th trading day in a row. _______________________________________________________________________________ VVIX will provide the corner for the Next VIX move higher. FED Puffer, Jim Bullard - when stoned tends to provide insight into Reality. FED accommodations are INFLATIONARY - teeing up the inevitable. _______________________________________________________________________________ Choppy trading into the FOMC.
TVC:VIX
by HK_L61
VVIX - Vol of Vol / The attempted Crush ContinuesThat said... Good Luck Riggers, it will not work. CBOE VVIX Index attempts to represent - volatility of volatility in as much VVIX measures the anticipated volatility of the 30-day forward price of VIX. Simply put - it is measuring the M1 / M2 VIX 30 Day ST Short-term Volatility. For those of you who do not understand how the VIX is calculated, you are missing a very important understanding we've explained here many times. If you missed this, educate yourself. This is Hypothetical for the VIX futures contract in that the VIX itself remains within a Constant 30 day Maturity. These indicators should be used as though your trading success depends upon it. It does indeed. We can use the Vol of Vol's range for further Information as to where Price can gyrate into Roll / Settle. Add it to your set of Tools if you have not, it does assist in preventing DGing. The Divergences are Building in VVIX as well.... And Reggies know where HK leans on Divergences. - HK
V
by HK_L61
28