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VVIX

ridethepig | VIX for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig VIX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 A good time to update the VIX chart for the traditional Quad witching flows....After an exchange in Q1 2020 with VIX exploding to the topside as widely expected for all those following, there is now what follows, an opportunity for a panic cycle next week (21st December) followed by another window in January for the extraction. A weaker sell side has allowed the zig zag advance, buyers are threatening to decisively break the highs once more unlocking an execution at 85 for another board clear. The position in my books is finally won by buyers, the ending will be instructive of US equities in particular. The position also has a chance of drawing at 20.0x support. While the same 85 targets (the position is an important link to the GA run off in Jan), taking the highs means we must chase and play from the centre. Buyers will wish to prove that 'resistance' is hanging by a thread, it might work. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
VIX/SPX indicator showing possible change of direction in S&PMy VIX/SPX indicator is really coming alive this week. It has the same look as August 21 and the following spike in September. - We are seeing several days of leveling out (Aug 11-26). - Followed by a green doji candle and a good bullish candle. - Need one more follow through day and as of 8:46am premarket is indicating that we will see another bullish candle today. - There is also a clear cross over in the MACD - RSI just coming off the oversold range Now we could see a little head fake like Aug 19-26, but this chart clearly looks to me like a decent correction is inbound for the S&P. This indicator does not let me know how big. I get some questions about using VIX/SPX as an indicator. VIX is not an "inverse" of SPX. Yes they are generally inversely correlated (SPX up, VIX down), but it is more complicated than that since VIX is a future contract based on expected volatility. What is important is that VIX rises exponentially as the SPX approaches a correction. What you see in this indicator is that when VIX is rising faster than SPX you will see a rise (green candles) in the chart. VIX VVIX I have 2 different markups of the S&P and both are show the S&P at the top of a rising wedge. S&P - Option #1 S&P - Option #2 A 3rd view of the S&P
TVC:VIX
by Dr_Roboto
3
Something maybe afoot in the VIXThe VIX is the most oversold on the 1D time frame using the cRSI than it has been during this whole rally and actually in several years. Now, that on the surface does not mean one thing or another. It could mean the market is finally comfortable with the S&P and things are all good. However, what concerns me is the fact that it has not returned back to its mean channel and the MACD is noticeable negative and looking to cross over. The MACD crossover is also not an absolute sign in the VIX either. It can ride along in the positive (green) for quite a while before it makes a bigger move. Another thing to note is that the VIX is sitting right on top of its normal channel. Again, not clearly anything as the VIX has been way above that channel since Feb. Here is an interesting thing I noticed about the VIX. You can clearly see the correction after the S&P Sept FOMO top at two peaks. Notice that the VIX did not settle all the way back down in between. It stayed elevated during the whole correction and only went back down after the recent rally even though that rally was not that much higher. Now remember that the VIX has not settled back down to its previous levels since it spiked in March. Does this mean we are sitting in the middle of a massive correction and there is still a big drop to come? Don't know, but some food for thought. Now lets turn to the VVIX. That effective is the volatility of the VIX (derivative of sorts from your calculus days). There we can see a clear trend of a higher lows and a support trend line forming (weekly and monthly). This supports that idea that the VIX should be bottoming and looking to move up. You can also see that it recently (Nov 27) was below the bounds on the cRSI and made a bottom. I also have my "custom" VIX/SPX indictor. The point behind this ratio is to look for the VIX rising more relative to the SPX. The VIX has a tenancy to go exponential when it goes up, thus we should see VIX increase faster than the SPX and the VIX/SPX ratio should also start to increase (larger numerator over a smaller denomenator). Now, this again is showing signs of life, but the signs are still weak. The cRSI is oversold and the RSI is getting close to a cross over. All in all, nothing is conclusive yet. However, there are signs starting to show of some form of correction up coming. If you follow my other posts, this is most likely linked to the topping of the S&P at the 1.236 fib level. I am surprised that we are not seeing it rise more like we did at the end of August for the big FOMO top. That 1.236 level is very important. Maybe all the bears gave up? Maybe the bulls have won? I will keep you posted.
CBOE:VIX
by Dr_Roboto
9
[VVIX] Still Lookin for that 3rd HH PEAK.. Volatility Incoming? Well that OG Falling Wedge played out nicely B). I've updated it here to line up this most recent spike. We're at the bottom of the main 2Y upchannel containing the bulk of the Price Action (yellow) so could very easily bounce back up from here. Currently we still seem to be within the FW structure heading toward the tip for a bigger breakout. We could breakout again before reaching the tip though as a continuation from the main FW upward break. Here's my more recent OG Idea: Here's the OOG post... so far we've only had 2 of the predicted three HH spikes so last one still probably incoming here...
VLong
by ProfitHarvest
3
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle📍 The theme we have set ourselves here for an expansion in Vol into next week, would usually provide enough material for an entire website, but lack of space compels me to moderate this into a short and snappy post. I shall only point out the most important notions and events from 2019 and save a deeper examination for later. The most brilliant post covid act, to be sure the idea of an expansion in volatility is not only linked to the increase in danger from a health rollercoaster which I propagated, based on the models. But VIX's move is surprising and I will not deny the brilliance of the full retrace. Also interesting is our earlier attempts to break up and make use of the flexible highs which we discovered ahead of US elections. All models are ticking up for the NY session today and looks set to last into next week. Aiming for the full set-up with 42 and 85. It is also worth noting that 42 is an interesting defence, going on to pressurise Biden with a 'hospital pass' for those familiar with the terminology in Rugby, it is where you are so fixated on catching the ball while it is in the air, that you forget about everything else around you. This early complacency, looks as anti-pseudo-capitalist as possible, but has found a good number of followers and turned out to be an extremely fruitful trade in equities. Major chart updates coming across the board over the coming hours and weekend. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
9
[UVXY] Back to the Drawing Board: DECAY is the KEY B)Sorry to leave you guys hangin! Felt like my UVXY shitposting was ultimately doing more harm than good. I was thinking far to linearly with my predictions and have simplified my buy in and cash out ranges. Gonna trust my indicators and RSI more too in conjunction with this. If you were following along the past couple months while I was hammering this thing out we had two great buy in opps at 19 late August that led to 32 max cash out opp and then my buy in call around 19 again was a bit aggressive as we fell to 16 but still there was a few days to exit over 20 with 23 max potential. Name of the game now: 1. Sell over core Decay Trend (magenta), buy under Decay Trend 2. Sell liberally, buy conservatively 3. Exit 100% of position before falling below Decay Trend 4. Enter in small chunks and buy on the way up to Decay Trend Hope this proves to be a bit more more clear, simple and effective.
CBOE:UVXY
by ProfitHarvest
14
The Mother of Volatility (VVIX)VVIX is the mother of volatility. It's already elevated, the initial shock and awe stage is done. SPX has to go down from here (which equates to more shock, awe and disbelief) for VVIX to rise substantially and for VIX futures & VIX options to behave accordingly. Expecting a pullback (similar to my last $VIX chart) before rocketing much higher (March levels). Keep in mind that the VIX futures curve shifted downwards yesterday while still maintaining backwardation (that's why $UVXY was down so much). Historical volatility is 18, now it's 38. If SPX rises, this will trigger the long vol guys who didn't position long vol.
V
by VisionCodeX
ridethepig | Vix into the elections and 2021📌  Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. This idea is very similar to the same struggle we had in Q1. The stratagem of a contraction in globalisation is illustrated via an expansion of volatility . Buyers opened the attack position in a +600% move as capitalism surrendered. Sellers are already on their last legs.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Volatility into the electionsI should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise moment. Let's continue to work through this example of the first chapter which will set the scene for our current leg. So the lows were swept in Q419 as expected to prepare the manoeuvres from that point. So the next chart should be considered here as a fortified support with lust to expand. It would only be right and proper for us to describe what comes next as impulsive, a move that was not without reason and certainly not without fear. And finally buyers ran out of steam as we approached the 85 main SWING TARGET . From 85 I was eyeballing a retrace towards 25. Look how easy it is to make use of the expansion. I see this as further proof of the enormous vitality of overprotecting support/resistance. If you 'know' where are the stops, you know hot to make use and expose with an appropriate reply. This was one of my favourite calls. 📌 Covid Chapter II This is clear proof that we are in sync with lockdowns and covid providing the manoeuvres. As we enter into the eye of the storm for the second wave, sentiment is definitively turning softer, although this case is much more complicated. If buyers remain passive above the 44/45 highs then we can see a well-timed massage from stimulus. In other words, we need the moves to happen before the elections and are running out of time. Buyers have developed a considerable appetite, bankruptcies are coming and complacency is repeating itself. We have two possibilities here existing for the terrain in Covid Chapter II. The breakout of the highs in this consolidation block to unlock a re-visit of 85 resistance assuming things go tits up in the coming days/weeks. Sellers of volatility have nothing immediately in play because of covid and contested election risk. The only correctness of the thesis comes from stimulus, which is an expectation now for after the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
3