VVIX Divergences 9/6/2020VVIX at the daily view.
This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 2 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility, trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength.
In this chart, the VVIX had RSI divergences and a bullish divergence between the VIX and VVIX . The VIX was in a downtrend, but the VVIX was flat. In addition, the VVIX created 3-4 higher lows in a row (minus the algorithms' morning support test) prior to a correction.
VVIX
[VVIX] EMA Model... Narrow BB Could Spell DOOM for Market!Given the nature of volatility markets, periods of stability (and narrowing BB) will necessarily always be followed (eventually) by a big volatility explosions (expanded BB) but rarely do the EMA 89 and 337 cross above the BB.
These cross events have occurred 3x since 2016 and each time we saw increasingly HH volatility peaks at roughly the half month, 1.5 months and 3 months intervals thereafter.
This could be one hell of a Frankenstein Fractal or pure happenstance but we'll find out soon! B)
[UVXY] Nostradamus Sht... Better Hope You Weren't Sleepin on Me!Just as predicted Price skyrocketed after breaking through the core purple S/R. Getting through that line was always gonna take a nice pullback. Without a pullback we woulda stayed under and ground back down.
The is my first real time spike analysis so really refining things still but my data is indicating we still have some upside here although we've probably covered 80% of this spike already. That local yellow S/R convergence with the green downtrend S/R will likely be the max upside here. Maybe we get up to that next white line but seems unlikely, breaking above it even more unlikely.
Overall given the higher liquidity environment and nature of patterns I still expect this to be the lowest HH of the next three volatility spikes...
So I'm not expecting too much more upside here and am already taking more profits and probably lookin to exit mostly tomorrow, maybe save a bit for next week in case something wild happens but we will definitely see some substantial retrace next week so don't get greedy!
Also my volatility divergence idea last night nailed this pullback.
[VIX/VXX] Volatility Channel of Profit: The $$$ Ratio!We scaled the entire 3Y Channel of Profit in a single day (that's actually where they fit, not overfitting this one surprisingly) after hanging around the bottom of the channel for a couple weeks.
Anytime we are below this channel, you should be scaling in a volatility position and above this channel you should focus on scaling out your position. For in between we have all the other more precise volatility models for the finer calls.
Also note that breaking above this channel tends to be a good predictor of corrections, which we are teetering on the edge of right now. Good luck Friday.
Let me know your thoughts! Very fun stuff here B).
[VVIX/SPX] Volatility Ratio Encore: New Perspectives = More $$$The volatility landscape is getting clearer with each passing day.
It seems my first Volatility Ratio chart of VIX/SPX broke some interesting ground. Managed to pull my first Editor's Pick.
In order to further refine our Volatility Trading Strategy here we must expand and find other major S/R from as many angels as we can.
VVIX is the next logical choice.
Whenever the ratio breaks under the major support the price tends to swing down and back up, this recent swing low was due to breaking the 7Y green support line Aug 21st.
It dropped all the way down to the next green support and bounced back up to touch the 1Y blue uptrend S/R and fell down to the 8Y red downtrend S/R. These lines were mapped at the 1W scale.
We are getting wedged down under the blue, green and yellow into red. This also aligns with a early Sept volatility movement. Most likely that will be a sustained break above green that triggers a spike up to the next yellow downtrend and possibly up the blue uptrend.
OG Volatility Ratio:
[VIX/VVIX] The GOLDEN Volatility Ratio: Come Take a Peek!I was dreamin about this sht... It's more beautiful than I imagined B).
There's a lot more to dig into on this one for sure but for now I just wanna release it into the wild for observation.
The fact that this ratio just broke and closed above all 5 colored lines I have on this chart (various S/R) with empty space above all in one day means we've got more upside, those former R's will now become S's that are hard to fall back through. I haven't tied that to anything too concrete other than this ratio is inversely correlated with the SPX so this is basically an SPX (strong?) short signal from the volatility perspective.
Anyway, lets not dwell on the minutia, behold and enjoy the VIX/VVIX and give it a go yourself!
[UVXY] Breakout Call Last Week Confirmed: More Upside to Come?The little yellow line microcosm analysis turned out very accurate.
As soon as it closed above the yellow uptrend it continued upward and is just being held by the purple S/R now and exactly at my TP.
From here we could see it wedge back down some but we have strong potential for an SPX pullback that will spike this thing through the roof.
Lets see if it can reach my max upside prediction (red box).
If it closes above the purple line, chances are high!
[VVIX] Microcosm Analysis: Price Right at Top of DownchannelPrice fell pretty deep through the white and green S/R all the way to the bottom of the downchannel where it bounced and shot right back up to the top of the downchannel and landed in the middle of the blue local support channel.
Would need a lot of power to close under the green and white S/R.
[UVXY] Stuck Exactly between Horizontal S/R and Downward S/R!I scalped today's spike at $23 and rebought again at $21.
Bullish case still holding very well especially with VVIX getting a LB signal on the 2H so I think there's still decent chance we see over $23 again before volatility settles back a bit leading into end of next week.
Time to hedge your longsVIX broke out and closed above its 2-month trend line today. When it did this in June, it rose 70% subsequently.
[UVXY 3D] Best Case Treasure Map.. What If it Blows Past my TPs?You can see my very conservative small TPs there. That's mostly just extra caution due to the high liquidity environment we have. I'm expecting bigger volatility spikes in October and November.
In the event things get crazy though I don't want to leave you hanging. Each line is a great TP point as these are the points Price is most likely to react at.
I really don't think it'd get over that white $32.50 S/R even in best case but who the fck knows right?
Last spike in June doubled from $27 to $50 in a week but liquidity was much lower then.
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Still Bulllish... New BUY Signals!Today we got Small Buy signals on UVXY, VIX and VXN and an entry confirm window on VVIX on 4H.
Volatility bullishness already pretty strong but increasing little by little each day with each new confirm.
[UVXY] Micorcosm Analysis: New Upchannel + We Got Our Breakout!Ok guys, yesterday we had a bit of a split decision with a bullish sentiment.
Today looked like it was gonna eviscerate short positions but lo and behold UVXY and VVIX and the Volatility Ratio all bounced off their long term horizontal supports.
After Price briefly tested and even pierced the white S/R it rejected and bounced as expected and ended exactly right back into our horizontal support channel well above it. This is the first long green candle we've gotten in weeks and the first to break entirely out of the local downchannel.
Anytime today could have been a great entry, especially while it was around white as we knew it would very likely reject Price.
Next entry confirms (for a higher confidence entry) would be staying above yellow uptrend channel and a close above the blue support channel.
[UVXY] Heiken Ashi Signaling Upward Breakout.. Candles Disagree!Looks like we're on the fence between normal candles and Heiken Ashi.
As we did get our close above the yellow uptrend, could be a decent entry point. We also got wide BUY entry window, LL, SB and LB, all pretty bullish here as additional signals.
Will keep an eye tomorrow for a good possible entry. Would like to see Price hang above the uptrend a bit, maybe even put a little distance and get an additional confirm from the normal candles too.
If that happens, we're likely in store for a small spike end of this week or next week. Liquidity will limit any upside, hence the small TPs (gold lines).
[VVIX] Things Getting Interesting... Volatility Spike Fractals?Shifted my OG fractal and found a potential new and better one aligning with early June.
Strong white horizontal S/R holding well.
As with UVXY, whether we spike soon or not, Price will still get wedged especially hard early October between purple and white and in this case under green too. Prime time for a upside breakout.
Happy harvests! B)
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Firing On All Cylinders.. 2W Forecast!My Volatility Matrix model is indicating high odds of an incoming volatility spike.
We're lookin for a confirm with break and close above the yellow line.
Meanwhile we have this cool data supporting a high chance of volatility:
1. UVXY: 1 x LB, 9 x Entry Window, 2 x SBs straddling 1 x SS, 1 x LL (Very Bullish)
2. VIX: 1 x LB, 1 x SB, 2 x LL (Very Bullish)
3. VVIX: 1 x LB, 2 x SBs straddling 1 x SS, 1 x LL opposing 1 x HH (Bullish)
4. VXN: 1 x LB canceled by LS, 2 x SBs straddling 1 x SS, 2 x LLs (Slightly Bullish)
We will most likely hit one if not, both TPs (gold lines) within the next two weeks.
Purple line will almost certainly reject Price strongly being the core 6 month S/R and push it into another falling wedge leading up to another bigger volatility spike as that wedge gets tighter and tighter against the medium strength white horizontal S/R. However, if it does get above, expect very quick retracement, can be used as a 3rd TP.
Happy harvests! B)
[UVXY] Mapping the Price Framework... Now w/ TPs!Price got caught at the blue horizontal minor trend right above the much stronger green and white major trends.
Still would like to see a breakout and hold above the yellow wedge to confirm the trade but assuming it does, $21.70 and $22.70 are great TPs.
Given high market liquidity, I do not anticipate this going much higher for the next spike around EOM but if it did, it'd be stopped by the purple core trend.
We'll see it drop back down after that and close in on the white line again (it will likely hold) until early October where liquidity should be much lower than now and we'll see a more volatile HH spike as it breaks above the purple core tend.
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix: Confirms Lining Up for Possible SPIKE!Today we have:
1 x BUY entry window UVXY
3 x LL confirms VVIX/VXN/VIX
3 x SB confirms UVXY/VIX/VVIX
2 x LB confirms UVXY/VIX
Seems like a good entry point, would love to see a SB at least on the VXN to increase confidence a tad more but probably not necessary here.
See the OG idea for theory details:
Indicators by @avacamir
[UVXY] Volatility Matrix Prediction Strategy... Data is $$$!Last time we got a volatility spike we had this signal sequence:
June 3rd: LL VVIX
June 5th: Small Buy VVIX, LL UVXY/VIX/VXN (4 x LL, 1 x SB)
June 9th: SB VXN, Large Buy VVIX, SB VIX (4 x LL, 2 x SB, 1 x LB - enough signals at all levels, possible entry confirm)
June 10th: SB UVXY (add'l confirm)
June 11th: LB UVXY (your money is probably good)
June 12th: HH UVXY/VXN/VVIX
June 13th: HH VIX
What we got now indicates that we're not going to see any volatility spike in the next few days (at least aside from our Buy Entry Window for UVXY but that Small Sell kinda ruins it). If we keep an eye and collect enough signals though it could give us everything we need to jump in right before a spike.
Signal Stages
Weak/Start: LL
Strong/Entry Confirm: SB
Strongest/Entry Confirm: LB
Keep in mind any Small or Large Sell in between would cancel out the previous Buys.
I'll keep you guys posted! B)
Shoutout to @itsallsotiresome for the VVIX and VXN education and @avacamir for the indicators.
